AUDIO:
POSSIBLE TOPICS: VOTETEXAS.GOV—Voter Information; REGISTER TO VOTE; APPLY FOR MAIL-IN BALLOT; Montgomery County approves transfer of portable morgue to forensics facility; Sugar Land releases tentative Imperial Char House land use map, will hold public hearing; ‘I was a bully’: Embattled prosecutor who posted ‘racist,’ ‘colorist’ tweets targeting Black women resigns from Harris County DA’s Office; Travel grant program expands to help sightseeing, passenger transportation companies recover from pandemic; Ken Paxton wants more power to prosecute election crimes. These bills in the Texas Legislature would give it to him; M&Ms replacing spokescandies with comedian Maya Rudolph; COVID, RSV and the flu: A case of viral interference?; The ancient trees at the heart of a case against the Crown; Japan PM says country on the brink over falling birth rate; China set for historic demographic turn, accelerated by COVID traumas; China’s Declining Population Can Still Prosper;More.
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- An educated electorate is a prerequisite for a democracy.
- You’re entitled to your own opinion, but not your own facts.
- Make sure you are registered to vote! VoteTexas.GOV – Texas Voter Information
- It;s time to snail-mail (no emails or faxes) in your application for mail-ballots, IF you qualify TEXAS SoS VOTE-BY-MAIL BALLOT APPLICATION (ALL TEXAS COUNTIES) HarrisVotes.com – Countywide Voting Centers, (Election Information Line (713) 755-6965), Harris County Clerk
- Harris County “Vote-By-Mail’ Application for 2022
- Fort bend County Elections/Voter Registration Machine takes you to the proper link
- GalvestonVotes.org (Galveston County, TX)
- Liberty County Elections (Liberty County, TX)
- Montgomery County (TX) Elections
- Brazoria County (TX) Clerk Election Information
- Waller County (TX) Elections
- Chambers County (TX) Elections
- For personalized, nonpartisan voter guides and information, Consider visiting Vote.ORG. Ballotpedia.com and Texas League of Women Voters are also good places to get election info.
- If you are denied your right to vote any place at any time at any polling place for any reason, ask for (or demand) a provisional ballot rather than lose your vote.
- HarrisVotes.com – Countywide Voting Centers, HARRIS COUNTY – IDENTIFICATION REQUIRED FOR VOTING: Do not possess and cannot reasonably obtain one of these IDs?
- Fill out a declaration at the polls describing a reasonable impediment to obtaining it, and show a copy or original of one of the following supporting forms of ID:
- A government document that shows your name and an address, including your voter registration certificate
- Current utility bill
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- You may vote early by-mail if:You are registered to vote and meet one of the following criteria:
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- Make sure you are registered:
- Ann Harris Bennett, Tax Assessor-Collector & Voter Registrar
- CHECK REGISTRATION STATUS HERE
- CLICK How to register to vote in Texas
- Outside Texas, try Vote.org.
- BE REGISTERED TO VOTE, and if eligible, REMEMBER TO FILL OUT AND MAIL NEW MAIL-IN BALLOT APPLICATIONS FOR 2023.
- You can track your Mail Ballot Activity from our website with direct link provided here https://www.harrisvotes.com/Tracking
- Montgomery County approves transfer of portable morgue to forensics facility; By Lizzy Spangler | COM | 3:30 PM Jan 24, 2023 CST, Updated 3:30 PM Jan 24, 2023 CST
- During its 24 meeting, the Montgomery County Commissioner’s Court approved a motion transferring a portable morgue from the Montgomery County Hospital District to the Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Management and spending $5,000 to relocate it to the county’s forensics facility on North Parkway in Conroe. …
- During the discussion of this agenda item, Precinct 2 Commissioner Charlie Riley and Precinct 3 Commissioner James Noack initially expressed concern about having the portable morgue at the forensics facility.
- “I don’t want to get rid of it, but I don’t want it at the new forensics [facility],” Riley said.
- When asked her opinion, Dr. Kathryn Pinneri, the Montgomery County Forensic Service Center’s director, said the portable morgue is an amazing asset for the county.
- “We shouldn’t get rid of it,” Pinneri said. “It doesn’t matter to me where we use it. … Without any adjustments, very easily we can hold over 50 to 60 decedents in our new facility. So the need for it would probably be very low, but I don’t want to get rid of it because we can still have lots of things happen.”
- During discussion, Millsaps shared that the portable morgue is not on wheels and would require trailers to move it. He also said if it is moved somewhere else besides the forensics facility, a new [$5000] agenda item regarding electrical power would need to be brought to the commissioners. …
- When commissioners expressed concern about how the facility looks, Pinneri said the portable morgue would be located in the back of the forensics facility.
- “You can’t see it from the main entrance,” Pinneri said.
- Following discussion, Commissioner’s Court voted unanimously to approve the motion.
- MIKE: There are a couple of reasons I decide to include this story that some listeners may find morbid.
- MIKE: One is that it’s fascinating to hear the kinds of practical nuts-and-bolts, undramatic, unglamorous stuff that our elected representatives must deal with. Second, I couldn’t help but find it amusing that one expressed concern was that a portable morgue being visible from the street might seem out-of-place or unattractive in front of the Montgomery County Forensic Service Center. Like, where else would it look like it belongs?
- ANDREW: As you say, this story isn’t glamorous, but logistics work also deserves public eyes on it. I’m glad it’s getting coverage, not least because stories like this often prompt larger discussions. Like how Montgomery County has an Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Management. I think an Office of Emergency Management might be enough, I don’t think we need to be institutionalizing paranoia at the local level when we’re already doing a pretty good job of it at the federal level.
- Sugar Land releases tentative Imperial Char House land use map, will hold public hearing; By Jack Dowling | COMMUNITYIMPACT.COM | 5:30 PM Jan 23, 2023 CST
Updated 5:30 PM Jan 23, 2023 CST- Boutique development firm PUMA announced in December that it will preserve and redevelop the Imperial Sugar Char House [MIKE: Basically, the landmark Imperial Sugar silos and building landmarks.] and the surrounding Imperial Historic District into a multipurpose shopping and living district.
- The land use map, which includes requested information from the 8 and 15 town halls, offers residents a glimpse of what the development may look like once completed, while development requirements outline general expectations for development within the project.
- Residential areas appear to be emphasized in the proposal … A cap of 660 housing units is included in the development requirements and allows all types of residences, including multifamily housing, single-family “urban” homes, townhomes, apartments and condos. …
- Four areas have been set aside for offices or other leased spaces … Green space, including park land and open fields, is proposed to take up a minimum of 15% of the total development. …
- However, the tentative requirements do not specify how or if the city will educate residents as to Sugar Land’s history of convict leasing and the many African American convicts that were enslaved to work at the char house. The issue was discussed at the 15 town hall meeting regarding the development.
- The Sugar Land City Council [was] set to meet … on Jan. 24. … The full proposed development agreement may be found here.
- ANDREW: The racist past of Sugar Land is something that I don’t think is taught well outside of families that have been harmed by it.
- ANDREW: I live in Pearland, and I had no idea of the role that convict leasing played in Sugar Land’s past until I took a college course that mentioned it a few years ago. I think state education agencies should be writing curriculums that talk more honestly and more seriously about the history of slavery in Texas, including helping school districts teach about local areas where slavery had a major impact.
- ANDREW: Until that happens, though, projects like this one are going to have to pull some of that weight. If they don’t, legacies like Sugar Land’s– and the continuing harm that comes from them– can be easily misunderstood or forgotten.
- MIKE: Of course, Andrew is correct. The people and countries injured by history tend to remember it for generations. We ignore teaching our citizens true and complete history — insomuch as that is possible — at our peril.
- ‘I was a bully’: Embattled prosecutor who posted ‘racist,’ ‘colorist’ tweets targeting Black women resigns from Harris County DA’s Office; By Nakia Cooper (Digital Managing Editor) and Syan Rhodes (Anchor/Reporter) | COM | Published: January 24, 2023 at 11:34 AM, Updated: January 24, 2023 at 4:24 PM
- Waymond Wesley II, a TikTok star chef who worked in the Harris County District Attorney’s Office, has resigned after a laundry list of his own “racist” and “colorist” tweets surfaced, showing him trolling and targeting Black women online. Outrage stretched from the Houston area to nationwide platforms, causing the chef to go viral in ways much different than the “oxtail pasta” recipes he boasted about.
- [Wesley said in part in his resignation letter posted online Tuesday,] “I know that this has been a painful time for many. The situation has remained complicated offline, but I want to offer the much-needed apology and context that I have wanted to share since the day my past tweets garnered attention.”
- In tweets from 2015 and 2016, Wesley, an African American man writing under a now-deleted account, @WaymoTheGod, posted a barrage of negative comments about dark skin and fuller-figured body types. He also compared Black women to trash.
- Twitter users called the tweets colorist, anti-Black and misogynistic. …
- Candice Matthews, with the Rainbow Push Coalition, Quanell X, chairman of the New Black Panther Nation, and members from the Brazoria County NAACP, Houston Rising, and other civil rights organizations, held a news conference calling on Wesley’s boss, District Attorney Kim Ogg, to remove him from his position.
- Ogg, however, stood by Wesley’s side, releasing a statement saying her office felt his statements were a thing of the past. …
- Ogg’s office … statement on Wesley’s resignation … read, in part:
- “Wesley was hired in March 2021, but was only recently assigned as a prosecutor in the Misdemeanor Trial Bureau, where all of his cases were supervised by a senior prosecutor. At the time of his hiring, the District Attorney’s Office was unaware of a series of disparaging and offensive comments Wesley had posted on social media nearly seven years earlier. When the office became aware of the posts two weeks ago, it was determined he could no longer effectively prosecute cases and he was reassigned.
- “In his resignation letter, Wesley noted that “… it has grown clear that my presence is becoming a distraction,” and he and the office mutually agreed that it was in the best interests of his career and the District Attorney’s Office that he resign.” …
- MIKE: It just amazes me the things people will feel free to post online. How many of these things would any poster say to someone’s face? Aside from the cowardice involved, this self-defined license to post hateful things seems deeply, troublingly human.
- MIKE: It’s true that Wesley’s trolling comments were years old, and that Wesley may have grown as a person since then, but I think it’s absolutely appropriate that he resigned from the DA’s office. This wasn’t a bar license-level offense, but there’s no question that the directions and trajectory of Wesley’s legal career will be affected for years to come.
- ANDREW: Absolutely. While the time since the transgressions should be taken into account, to allow for opportunities for the person to change, there are kinds of harm that can’t be grown out of.
- ANDREW: More to the point here, there are positions of power in society where people can do much more serious harm if they have any amount of prejudice, and that can understandably lose them the public’s trust even if the person had opportunities to change. As a prosecutor, that’s exactly the kind of position Wesley was in.
- ANDREW: I’m glad public and cultural pressure was enough to get him out of that position, and I hope any harm he did has been limited. I hope people watch higher powers in the same way as well.
- Travel grant program expands to help sightseeing, passenger transportation companies recover from pandemic; By Hannah Norton | COMMUNITYIMPACT.COM | 5:35 PM Jan 23, 2023 CST, Updated 5:35 PM Jan 23, 2023 CST
- Tourism, travel and hospitality companies that were negatively impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic may be eligible for up to $20,000 in grant funding.
- The Texas Travel Industry Recovery Grant program was launched in July 2022 after lawmakers allocated $180 million in federal funds to support struggling businesses during a 2021 special legislative session. The application opened in phases for a variety of business sectors.
- On Jan. 23, Gov. Greg Abbott announced that more industries, including sightseeing and passenger transportation, would be eligible for funding. The next application phase begins Feb. 1, according to the program’s website. …
- In order to be eligible for a grant, businesses must be operated in Texas and have opened before Jan. 20, 2020. …
- ANDREW: I think this is another instance of Texas legislators favoring business recovery over personal recovery. Funneling money to businesses keeps top Republican and Democratic donors, many of whom are business magnates, happy and in the mood to contribute to reelection campaigns. It can also be spun as “saving jobs” to the Republican voter base, despite the fact that many of these businesses laid off their staff months ago, and there’s no incentive for them to rehire on the same scale, if at all. So working people, who get no financial support from bills like these, continue to go hungry, homeless and unemployed. But at least the lege stays red.
- Ken Paxton wants more power to prosecute election crimes. These bills in the Texas Legislature would give it to him.; by Natalia Contreras | VOTEBEAT and THE TEXAS TRIBUNE | Jan. 12, 2023, 2 PM Central
- Two bills filed in the Texas House of Representatives seek to expand the Texas attorney general’s power to prosecute election crimes. One allows the office to appoint special prosecutors to such cases, while the other empowers the office to penalize local prosecutors who “limit election law enforcement.”
- Although no evidence of widespread voter fraud has been found, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has been actively pursuing election-related crimes since he took office in 2015. In at least the past two years, his office opened more than 300 investigations of potential crimes by voters and election officials but has successfully convicted only a handful. Experts and voting rights advocates say the bills would continue to empower state officials to scrutinize elections administrators, ignite more lawsuits and intimidate voters.
- In September, the Texas Court of Criminal Appeals ruled in Texas v. Zena Stephens that Paxton does not have unilateral authority to prosecute election crimes. Instead, the Texas Constitution grants that authority to local prosecutors such as county and district attorneys.
- Soon after the ruling, Paxton publicly called for the Legislature to “right this wrong.” In a tweet, Paxton wrote, “The CCA’s shameful decision means local DAs with radical liberal views have the sole power to prosecute election fraud in TX—which they will never do.”
- The two pieces of legislation — both filed by North Texas Republican lawmakers — are “a direct reaction” and a “workaround” to that court ruling, experts say. …
- Austin-based attorney Chad Dunn, who has represented clients, including [Sheriff Zena Stephens], prosecuted by the attorney general’s office, said the bills filed to expand the attorney general’s power to prosecute election crimes are “unconstitutional.” Dunn said if legislators want to expand the attorney general’s abilities to prosecute election crimes, they need an amendment to the Constitution, which would be up to Texas voters to decide.
- “It’s striking to see Republican officeholders trying to micromanage community decisions,” Dunn said. “Prosecutors have absolute discretion to determine who it is that they want to investigate and prosecute. …
- ANDREW: One reason the Attorney General shouldn’t be able to investigate anybody they want is because that power would absolutely be abused for political purposes. Another party’s candidate pulls ahead of yours in the governor’s race? Oops, they checked the wrong box on the 40th page of a form, now they’re under investigation for election fraud. Your candidate loses on election night? Oops, all 100,000 voters at this one polling place are under investigation for voting illegally and their ballots aren’t valid, so your candidate wins now, actually.
- ANDREW: There would undoubtedly be more power abuses if Paxton could prosecute anyone he wants, even just for alleged election crimes. These bills are a monumentally bad idea, which actually helps their chances of passing in our bass-ackwards state government. Good grief.
- M&Ms replacing spokescandies with comedian Maya Rudolph; COM | Published JAN. 23, 2023
- Candy company M&Ms indefinitely paused their “spokescandies” and replaced them with a new face – that of US comedian Maya Rudolph.
- The move comes after a rebrand of the cartoon versions of the chocolate treat, which appear in advertisements, caused a backlash. …
- M&Ms first updated its cartoon characters in January 2022, as part of a “global commitment to creating a world where everyone feels they belong and society is inclusive”, the candy’s parent company, Mars Inc, said at the time.
- As part of the makeover, the two female M&M characters wore less stereotypically feminine attire – the green M&M swapped out her go-go boots for a pair of “cool, laid-back” sneakers, and the Brown M&M shortened the height of her heels.
- Tucker Carlson Tonight has been among the most prominent critics of the change. It featured on multiple segments on the show, during which the host criticised the lack of eye-candy in the M&Ms rebrand, saying the female cartoon characters now look “less sexy”.
- “M&M’s will not be satisfied until every last cartoon character is deeply unappealing and totally androgynous. Until the moment you wouldn’t want to have a drink with any one of them. That’s the goal,” Mr Carlson said last year.
- He doubled-down on his condemnation earlier this month, after M&Ms launched limited-edition packaging featuring only its female candy characters, with proceeds of the sales donated to female-focused charities.
- “The woke M&Ms are back,” Mr Carlson said in a 10 January segment, targeting the green M&M and “a plus-sized, obese purple M&M”.
- In its statement on Monday, M&Ms said it did not intend for the rebranding of its spokescandies to be a divisive issue.
- “Now we get it,” [said MARS, the parent company of M&Ms, in a statement] – even a candy’s shoes can be polarising. Which was the last thing M&Ms wanted since we’re all about bringing people together” …
- It is unclear why M&Ms has chosen to pause the use of its spokescandies one year after their makeover, or how long the pause will last. …
- MIKE: This story intrigued me on many levels. One, is how stupid and twisted Tucker Carlson is to be interested, effected, or disturbed in any way by how sexy M&M spokescandies may or may not be. What must Tucker Carlson’s porn be like?
- MIKE: The second level of what intrigues me was the Mars Candy Company’s response: Delightfully snarky, yet a complete “cave” at the same time. Don’t they understand that they can’t win against morons like this, who are upset about how sexy or androgenous CANDY may be? Are these the same people who masturbate to Anime girls?
- MIKE: C’mon, Mars. Get some metaphorical cohones. You’re MARS! Candy god of war!
- ANDREW: I don’t think people who like anime porn deserve to be compared to Tucker Carlson, quite frankly.
- ANDREW: I think Mars is probably just trying to do something to appease the right and hope they move on as soon as possible. The problem is that even acknowledging ridiculous backlash like this oftentimes fuels it.
- ANDREW: I think a smarter move would have just been to do nothing and show Carlson that he wouldn’t get a rise out of them. Eventually the viewers would want a different outrage, and the storm would have passed. Maybe not buying advertising time on Fox News would have helped, too. Thankfully, there’s still time for that.
- COVID, RSV and the flu: A case of viral interference?; Viruses, it turns out, can block one another and take turns to dominate. By Amber Dance | Knowable Magazine via ARSTECHNICA.COM | 1/15/2023, 6:36 AM
- Three years into the pandemic, COVID-19 is still going strong, causing wave after wave as case numbers soar, subside, then ascend again. But this past autumn saw something new—or rather, something old: the return of the flu. Plus, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)—a virus that makes few headlines in normal years—ignited in its own surge, creating a “tripledemic.”
- The surges in these old foes were particularly striking because flu and RSV all but disappeared during the first two winters of the pandemic. Even more surprising, one particular version of the flu may have gone extinct during the early COVID pandemic. …
- Richard Webby, a virologist at St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital in Memphis[said], “we hope it got squeezed out,” [and,] “Such an extinction would be a super rare event …”
- [T]he past few years have been highly unusual times for human-virus relations, and lockdowns and masks went a long way toward preventing flu and RSV from infiltrating human nostrils. Still, Webby thinks another factor may have kept them at bay while COVID raged. It’s called viral interference, and it simply means that the presence of one virus can block another.
- Viral interference can happen in individual cells in the lab, and in individual animals and people that are exposed to multiple viruses—but it can also play out across entire populations, if enough people get one virus for it to hinder the flourishing of others at scale. This results in waves of infections by individual viruses that take turns to dominate. …
- [MIKE: Then there’s a lot of technical stuff. The article resumes …]
- In the ongoing pandemic, it’s still hard to say how much of a role, if any, interference played in shutting down RSV and flu in populations around the globe. During the first COVID wave in 2020, [Ellen Foxman, an immunologist at Yale School of Medicine,] thinks that not enough people had COVID for it to be interfering with other viruses on a grand scale. …
- But by the second COVID winter, in 2021-22, Webby thinks he sees population-level evidence for interference. …
- In the third COVID winter now underway in the Northern Hemisphere, conditions are different yet again. Many people now have immunity to COVID, from a recent bout or from vaccination, but fewer have experienced RSV or flu in recent memory. That set the scene for flu and RSV to stage a massive dual comeback, hitting early and hard.
- Any potential interference during the 2022-23 tripledemic winter will become more obvious once epidemiologists can look back on the season and see if each virus took its turn. Already, there are indicators that the fall surges of RSV and flu might have peaked, while COVID is on the upswing after the winter holidays. But there are still several cold months to come, providing ample opportunity for any of the trio to rise again.
- ANDREW: What worries me is whether the strains of other illnesses that survived their own battles with COVID will be stronger for it and harder to treat in the future. It’s another topic that I’m sure sociologists and immunologists will be covering in their studies of post-slash-mid-COVID society for years to come.
- The ancient trees at the heart of a case against the Crown; By Eloise Alanna | BBC News | Published Jan 23, 2023, 3 hours ago
- A small indigenous community is fighting a historic land rights claim in Canada …
- The Nuchatlaht [: Noo-HAT-la] First Nation case not only has significance for [the Nuchatlaht], but is being watched for its potential impact on indigenous land claims in Canada and what it means for the provincial government’s commitment to reconciliation.
- As one expert put it, the decision could be “the first tile in the Aboriginal rights game of dominos”. …
- The Nuchatlaht [Noo-HAT-la] filed the lawsuit against the province in 2017, claiming rights and titles of approximately 200 sq km [20,000 hectares] of land in the northern part of Nootka Island on the western edge of Vancouver Island.
- The Nuchatlaht say they are the rightful stewards of the land, that it has been theirs for thousands of years and they have never surrendered it.
- The Crown, which now owns the land, has denied the Nuchatlaht claim, and has argued that the Nuchatlaht have no continuous connection to the territory.
- A lawyer for the Nuchatlaht has argued that the community was forced from their land by – among other causes – the creation of the reserve system in Canada, land set aside by the federal government for the exclusive use of First Nations. …
- To win, one of the things the Nuchatlaht must prove is that they continuously and exclusively occupied the land in 1846, when Britain gained sovereignty over what is now BC in a treaty signed with the United States …
- The province would not comment on the case, though it has previously said it respects the right of indigenous peoples to choose how they settle legal issues, including through the courts.
- If they win rights to the land, “we would manage it, enhance it, protect it,” said [Archie Little, Nuchatlaht House Speaker]. …
- [A]rchaeologist Jacob Earnshaw [gave] evidence about what are called “culturally modified trees” – trees that show cultural use by indigenous people, mainly bark harvesting. … There are thousands of culturally modified trees across approximately 100 sites in the Nuchatlaht territory. …
- The First Nation has also relied on Captain James Cook to bolster their case.
- In 1778, the British explorer was on his third and final voyage around the world — a mission to find the Northwest Passage across the Arctic.
- In a quiet inlet, Cook sat down to write as he looked out across the dense forested landscape and coastal mountains.
- He wrote: “King George’s Sound was the appellation given by the Commodore to this inlet, on our first arrival; but he was afterwards informed that the natives called it Nootka.”
- Quoted in court were Cook’s writing about how the indigenous people he met on Nootka had “such high notions of everything the country produced being their exclusive property”. …
- But the Crown argued the Nuchatlaht were “relatively small in relation to other indigenous groups in the area” and so had little capacity to prevent others from using the region’s land and resources.
- The Nuchatlaht case will be the first test of a precedent-setting 2014 Supreme Court of Canada decision on indigenous land title in Canada. …
- If the Nuchatlaht win their case, the many indigenous nations in British Columbia with unresolved land claims will take notice, said Gordon Christie, an associate professor at the Peter A Allard School of Law at the University of British Columbia. …
- ANDREW: This is an interesting case. I find it ironic that the words of a colonizer might be used against the very institution he worked for. I hope that the Nuchatlaht win this case, and that it sets a precedent for other First Nations people to win back the rights to their land as well.
- MIKE: That irony was no doubt a feature rather than a bug.
- REFERENCE: Oregon Treaty — The Canadian Encyclopedia
- REFERENCE: Treaty of Oregon — Northwest Power and Conservation Council (US)
- REFERENCE: The Pig War — The Canadian Encyclopedia
- Japan PM says country on the brink over falling birth rate; By George Wright | BBC News | Jan 23. 2023, Published 12 hours ago
- Japan’s prime minister says his country is on the brink of not being able to function as a society because of its falling birth rate.
- Fumio Kishida said it was a case of “now or never.”
- Japan – population 125 million – is estimated to have had fewer than 800,000 births last year. In the 1970s, that figure was more than two million.
- Birth rates are slowing in many countries, including Japan’s neighbours.
- But the issue is particularly acute in Japan as life expectancy has risen in recent decades, meaning there are a growing number of older people, and a declining numbers of workers to support them.
- Japan now has the world’s second-highest proportion of people aged 65 and over – about 28% – after the tiny state of Monaco, according to World Bank data. …
- He said that he eventually wants the government to double its spending on child-related programmes. A new government agency to focus on the issue would be set up in April, he added.
- However, Japanese governments have tried to promote similar strategies before, without success.
- In 2020, researchers projected Japan’s population to fall from a peak of 128 million in 2017 to less than 53 million by the end of the century. The population is currently just under 125 million, according to official data.
- Japan has continued implementing strict immigration laws despite some relaxations, but some experts are now saying that the rules should be loosened further to help tackle its ageing society.
- Falling birth rates are driven by a range of factors, including rising living costs, more women in education and work, as well as greater access to contraception, leading to women choosing to have fewer children.
- Last week, China reported its first drop in population for 60 years.
- ANDREW: Promoting immigration and relaxing restrictions sounds like a very wise policy.
- ANDREW: Ensuring that financial and service support is in place for families with children would help bolster the birth rate, I would think. Free childcare, long-term economic assistance for families with children, this sort of thing.
- ANDREW: I personally know many people who (admittedly live in the US but) would be interested in having kids if they knew they could support them, both financially and with their parental presence. Unfortunately, their current and/or future work looks to pay too little and demand too many hours for that. I’m sure that situation is not unique to the US.
- China set for historic demographic turn, accelerated by COVID traumas; By Farah Master | REUTERS.COM | January 13, 20239:37 AM CST, Last Updated 5 days ago
- Living under China’s stringent COVID-19 restrictions for the past three years had caused Zhang Qi enough stress and uncertainty to consider not having babies in the country.
- When China abruptly dismantled its “zero COVID” regime last month to let the virus spread freely, the balance tilted to a definite “No”, the Shanghai-based e-commerce executive said.
- Stories about mothers and babies not being able to see doctors as medical facilities were overwhelmed by COVID infections were the final straw for Zhang. …
- A glimpse of the scars caused by the pandemic to China’s already bleak demographic outlook may come to light when it reports its official 2022 population data on Jan. 17.
- Some demographers expect China’s population in 2022 to post its first drop since the Great Famine in 1961, a profound shift with far-reaching implications for the global economy and world order. …
- [Said Wang Feng, professor of Sociology at University of California,] “With this historical turn, China has entered a long and irreversible process of population decline, the first time in China and the world’s history. In less than 80 years, China’s population size could be reduced by 45%. It will be a China unrecognisable by the world then.” …
- The United Nations predicts China’s population will start to decline this year when India overtakes it as the world’s most populous country.
- N. experts see China’s population shrinking by 109 million by 2050, more than triple the decline of their previous forecast in 2019.
- While nine of the 10 most populous nations in the world are experiencing declines in fertility, China’s 2022 fertility rate of 1.18 was the lowest and well below the 2.1 OECD standard for a stable population.
- The country, which imposed a one-child policy from 1980-2015, officially acknowledged it was on the brink of a demographic downturn last year …
- In October, President Xi Jinping said the government would enact further policies to boost the country’s birth rate. …
- The economic impact of an ageing society will be significant.
- Demographer Yi Fuxian expects the proportion of those aged 65 years and older to reach 37% in 2050, from 14% last year and 5% in 1980. Its labour force won’t be replenished at the same rate due to declining births.
- “Rapid aging is slowing China’s economy, reducing revenues, and increasing government debt…China is getting old before it gets rich[,” said Yi.]
- MIKE: Over the past few years on this show, I talked about China’s impending demographic time bomb. Now it appears to be here.
- MIKE: It’s important to remember that, due to China’s previous one-child policy, this population decline is not a bug, it’s a feature, and it was very deliberately intended at the time.
- MIKE: A big deal is being made around the world about the problems associated with population decline in many nations; these concerns are mostly economic, but can also be geopolitical.
- MIKE: In most of my lifetime, there has been a constant struggle in the US to accommodate growing population. For government planning, this can be bad. For the economy generally and most businesses specifically, this is great. But it’s not like governments have never had to deal with population decline. It can also be caused by historic population shifts. This has presented challenges in the so-called “Rust Belt” of the US Midwest that have still not been dealt with very well.
- MIKE: Historically speaking, holding on to territory meant physically occupying it with people. The outcome of the Mexican-American War in 1848 is an excellent example. What was then northern Mexico was very thinly populated, making it much more easily absorbed into the United States. There was talking of annexing all of Mexico, but a consensus was reached that the population was too large to successfully integrate into the US. For many countries, such as Russia holding onto to their eastern territories, declining population in an unstable world makes peace more tenuous. Even more so in a world where international law and norms regarding borders seem to be fraying.
- MIKE: One of China’s economic strengths is its large, well-educated workforce. Over the next generation or two, that valuable asset is what China will lose. Further, China has built infrastructure — housing, energy, water supplies, etc. — for almost 1.5 billion people. With a 40% population decline, that’s a lot of enormous ghost towns, which will also mean an enormous loss of GDP (Gross Domestic Product).
- MIKE: There’s another more worrying aspect to China’s population decline: It’s armed forces will never be larger than they are now. Decline in the population of young men means a decline in potential military power within the next decade or two. For issues like Taiwan, militarily speaking, the clock is ticking for China.
- MIKE: As a general rule, national or international instability often leads to conflict.
- MIKE: We are, as they say, in for some interesting times.
- ANDREW: I think you’re right. I think China’s robust social safety net will help alleviate a lot of the tension that could arise from this changing landscape, but as economic power is the source of that safety net, and this demographic shift is going to reduce the number of work-ready citizens, policy changes are going to be necessary. I hope that those policy changes focus more on preserving life and wellbeing than provoking conflict in order to create distracting nationalist fervor and bolster defense industry spending, but I can’t help but feel that we’ve heard this song before.
- China’s Declining Population Can Still Prosper; Research suggests that once low fertility becomes the norm, it’s unlikely to rebound. But this doesn’t need to spell disaster for the country or those with similar trends. By Catherine Bowen and Vgard Skirbekk | WIRED.COM via DEFENCE.PK | JAN 19, 2023 10:49 AM (Catherine E. Bowen, PhD: Medical School Berlin | MSB · Department of Psychology; Vegard Skirbekk, Professor: Population and Family Health (In the Columbia Aging Center) )
- The factors driving low fertility in China appear to be similar to the factors driving low fertility in other countries: more time spent in education and establishing a career; high costs of housing and raising a child; changes in the values and expectations surrounding sexuality, marriage, and children; entrenched expectations that women bear the brunt of domestic responsibilities; and difficulties combining work and family, especially for women. …
- We know from low-fertility countries in Asia and Europe that measures designed to boost fertility—such as a one-time baby bonus, childcare subsidies, or paid leave—rarely have more than a fleeting effect on birth rates because they only superficially address the factors driving low fertility. And so far, China appears to be having a similar experience … But even if fertility rates are unlikely to go back up, in China or elsewhere, it doesn’t need to mean disaster. …
- Low fertility presents China not only with challenges, but also with opportunities. Low fertility and shrinking population size can reduce overcrowding and resource use, and make it more feasible to meet climate targets and reduce pollution. Low fertility makes it easier to reduce poverty, as more resources can be invested in each child born. Increased competition for labor could potentially drive an improvement in wages and working conditions. Low fertility also provides women the freedom to invest their time, energy, and talent in things other than childbearing, and thus help to advance the position of women in society. An older population may also contribute to less violence and crime. …
- [The authors’] work suggests that China can effectively stay younger by investing in the health of its aging population. Specific targets might include tackling the increase in obesity, the high prevalence of smoking among men, and high levels of pollution. China should also focus on increasing worker productivity through education and training (also in later in life), as well as developing and acquiring technologies that make human labor more efficient.
- China could also respond to population aging by extending the retirement age and encouraging higher female labor participation. China has one of the earliest retirement ages in the world: Current retirement ages are 60 for men, 50 for women in blue-collar jobs, and 55 for women in white-collar jobs. About 93 percent of women are required to retire at age 50. Postponing retirement would relieve pressure on the pension system and increase the labor pool. …
- women—and late-middle-aged women in particular—still represent an underutilized resource of paid labor. In light of its rapidly aging population, hints that the Chinese administration is in fact discouraging female labor force participation are not only troubling from a human rights perspective but also from an economic perspective.
- While the spotlight has been on China this week, the trends observed in China are not unlike those observed in many high-income countries. The populations in many eastern European countries, Italy, Singapore, Japan, and the Republic of Korea (just to name a few) are also rapidly aging and shrinking. So far, few countries have adequately adapted economic structures (including adjusting pension levels and retirement ages to ensure long-term fiscal sustainability), health care systems, social services, or infrastructure to best suit the needs and resources of an aging population. Measures that improve education, productivity, and health across the lifespan would ease the transition to a world with fewer children. It is possible for China—and the rest of the world—to decline and
- ANDREW: The only suggestion I don’t agree with here is raising the retirement age. While I think there should be parity between when men and women retire, I think that in any country, requiring people to work longer before significant public support kicks in puts them more at risk of economic turmoil. The benefit would be that a portion of the population would immediately be back in the workforce, and those who hadn’t reached the existing retirement age yet would stay in the workforce for a few years more than they otherwise would.
- ANDREW: I’m not denying that that would help, but I don’t think it’s enough of a solution to justify the increased risk each of those workers would then face. I think increasing health and education so that workers are more capable and investing in technologies that can compensate for jobs that can’t be filled, plus getting more women into the workforce, would be much more effective with much less risk to workers.
- REFERENCE: China’s declining population cannot be easily reversed (19 Jan 2023) – SG
- REFERENCE: Cheap labour, long hours and severe competition: How China’s declining population could impact its economy – SKYNEWS.COM.AU
- REFERENCE: China population: economic model must shift from ‘Made in China’ to ‘Designed in China’, say experts – SCMP.COM (South China Morning Post, based in Hong Kong)
- REFERENCE: Death of a superpower: is China facing a decade of decline? — CO.UK
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