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POSSIBLE TOPICS: Elections Edition; Constitutional Amendments and Other Ballot Propositions: Reading, Analysis, and Suggested Votes; Republicans choose Johnson as fourth speaker nominee, after Trump nixes Emmer run; Powell declares her plea deal was extorted.; Jamie Dimon rips central banks for being ‘100% dead wrong’ on economic forecasts; Ukraine Draws Breath After Southern Successes; China’s leaders speed towards Japanisation; More.

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Except for timely election info, the extensive list of voting resources will now be at the end.

1. MIKE: Welcome to the 2023 Election edition of Thinkwing Radio. While KPFT is a 501(c)3 non-profit that restrains us from endorsing specific candidates, I don’t believe that this keeps us from discussing and endorsing positions regarding things like Constitutional Amendments, bond issues, etc. And so, we begin.
2. VOTING IN THE NOVEMBER 7^TH GENERAL ELECTION:
   3. Early voting is now available until Nov. 3. Polling place hours are open Monday thru Saturday, 7am to 7pm, and on Sundays from noon to 7pm
   4. In Harris County, you can get a sample ballot for your specific precinct by going HERE.
   5. Polling places are listed HERE.
   6. Deadline to apply for a mail ballot is Friday, October 27. Click here for the application.Fill it out, print it, and then mail it before the deadline. (MIKE: Personally, I think it’s too late to reliably apply for a mail-in ballot.)
   7. For more election information anywhere in Texas, go to VOTETEXAS.GOV
   8. You can track your Mail Ballot Activity from our website with direct link provided here https://www.harrisvotes.com/Tracking
   9. In HARRIS COUNTY, go to HarrisVotes.COM. For any place in Texas, you can go to VOTETEXAS.GOV
3. Houston’s 2023 Mayoral Election; Presented by Houston Landing | VOTE.HOUSTONLANDING.ORG
   1. Get to know your candidates (and more)
   2. ALSO: Everything you need to know before voting for Houston’s new mayor in November election; COM | Tuesday, August 22, 2023/ 1:29PM
   3. MIKE: This is a really comprehensive article about Houston elections: Who’s running for what (including mayor, city controller), and all city council positions.
   4. Houstonians can visit the city’s redistricting website to view maps and determine which council district they reside in. …
4. MIKE: Long ballots can seem daunting; even overwhelming. Let’s say you want to do your civic duty and vote, but there’s so much on the ballot that you don’t know where to begin, or are not inclined to do a deep-dive into every candidate and issue. For some folks, they metaphorically (or literally!) throw up their hands in frustration and decide not to vote because they don’t — or can’t — know enough to make an informed decision. Thus, unfortunately, they choose to remove themselves from the process.
   1. MIKE: But there is an answer to this dilemma: Endorsements. You can start with a search as simple as, “2023 election endorsements”. You can focus it further by adding words like “Houston” or Texas” or “amendments”
   2. MIKE: Scroll down your results and look for organizations that provide non-partisan information and/or organizations that seem to align strongly with your political, social, and moral values. If they offer endorsements, consider them. Over time, you will develop a list of groups and sites that you feel you can rely upon for endorsements that are generally supportive of your views. There will be occasional exceptions, but there may be an overall consensus among your chosen endorser sites.
   3. MIKE: Carefully considered, that is when endorsements are useful.
   4. MIKE: Among my go-to sites are the various League of Women Voters groups. They’re informative, non-partisan, and their thoughts on the pros and cons of amendments, propositions and candidates are clearly written and can be highly useful.
   5. MIKE: Below are some of the sites I visit for information and possible endorsements:
      1. League of Women Voters of Houston — Voters Guide (Lists) (RELIABLE, NON-PARTISAN ELECTION INFORMATION)
      2. League of Women Voters of Houston — Voters Guide: Texas Constitutional Amendments
      3. League of Women Voters of Houston — Voters Guide: Harris County Bond Issue
   6. League of Women Voters of Houston — Voters Guide: City of Houston Propositions
   7. The League of Women Voters of Texas: Home
   8. BALLOTPEDIA (NON-PARTISAN ELECTION INFORMATION)
   9. TheCaucus
   10. Texas Gulf Coast Area Labor Federation, AFL-CIO (ENDORSEMENTS)
   11. The Houston Chronicle Endorsements and Voters Guide
5. MIKE: “As of 2022 (the 87th Legislature), the Texas Legislature has proposed a total of 700 amendments. Of these, 517 have been adopted, and 180 have been defeated by Texas voters, and three amendments never made it to the ballot.” — Constitutional amendments – Legislative Reference Library|
6. MIKE: As an overarching philosophical viewpoint, I don’t like Texas constitutional amendments. Mostly, proposed amendments should be normal legislation. Creating a constitutional amendment in place of would-be legislation is like controlling life from beyond the grave: it takes a political viewpoint from a moment in time and enshrines it in a way that makes it much harder for future generations to change it. To paraphrase Charlton Heston, it’s like saying, “You can change this constitutional amendment when you can pry it from my cold, dead hand.”
7. MIKE: This is not my idea of responsive, evolving government that serves the people.
8. MIKE: However, from my point of view, any Texas Constitutional amendment that gives local power to counties and cities is worth considering, especially considering how much power the Texas state government has aggrandized to itself, and I generally view them favorably. On the other hand, any Texas Constitutional amendment that mandates local tax caps or increases, impinges on local governmental authority or administrative organization, or other similar mandates, I tend to be against. This sometimes leads me to counter-intuitive votes, but for specific reasons.
9. MIKE: The following are Mike’s and Andrew’s Amendment voting recommendations:
10. PROPOSITION 1 (HJR 126): “The constitutional amendment protecting the right to engage in farming, ranching, timber production, horticulture, and wildlife management.”
    1. “NO” on Prop 1: As explained by LWV-TX, “Proposition 1 limits the power of local governments to protect the health of their communities by setting rules covering farming practices that impact animal welfare, food safety, drinking water protection, animal waste, odors and pesticide runoff.” MIKE: I see this as another attempt to limit local home rule by cities and counties by creating a state mandate that overrules local needs and values.
11. PROPOSITION 2 (SJR 64): “The constitutional amendment authorizing a local option exemption from ad valorem taxation by a county or municipality of all or part of the appraised value of real property used to operate a child-care facility”.
    1. MIKE: I vote “yes”. I’m not sure that such an exemption would be good or bad, but Texas has accrued so much power to the State government that any power they give back to localities almost has to be good.
    2. ANDREW: The only restriction in the text is that if an exemption is given, it has to be at least half of the value of the real property (which is the land, the things on and beneath it, and the airspace above it). There could be a further restriction later on in that the Legislature is given the power to define a “child-care facility” in Texas by passing another law which would specify what properties are eligible for this exemption, but that isn’t in place yet. 
12. PROPOSITION 3 (HJR 132): ”The constitutional amendment prohibiting the imposition of an individual wealth or net worth tax, including a tax on the difference between the assets and liabilities of an individual or family.”
    1. MIKE: I vote “no”. There has already been a constitutional amendment preventing any future state of local income taxes in Texas, making such a progressive tax a major challenge. The reality is that Texas has created a system of “flat taxes” that favor the rich and well-off at the expense of Texans struggling to make ends meet. This amendment would just be another brick in the wall barring any form of future progressive taxation in Texas.
13. PROPOSITION 4 (HJR 2 – Second Special Session): “The constitutional amendment to authorize the legislature to establish a temporary limit on the maximum appraised value of real property other than a residence homestead for ad valorem tax purposes; to increase the amount of the exemption from ad valorem taxation by a school district applicable to residence homesteads from $40,000 to $100,000; to adjust the amount of the limitation on school district ad valorem taxes imposed on the residence homesteads of the elderly or disabled to reflect increases in certain exemption amounts; to except certain appropriations to pay for ad valorem tax relief from the constitutional limitation on the rate of growth of appropriations; and to authorize the legislature to provide for a four-year term of office  for a member of the board of directors of certain appraisal districts.” 
    1. MIKE: I voted “no”. I don’t believe that State has any business mandating the kind of property taxation that a locality deems to be correct and proper. It’s more State overreach.
    2. ANDREW: One might be tempted to think this amendment might make homeownership more affordable – something sorely needed with rising home prices – but a lower property tax would only save homebuyers money after the big spend, and any impact would be negligible compared to something like raising the minimum wage. There’s really no good reason I can see to vote for this amendment.
14. PROPOSITION 5 (HJR 3): “The constitutional amendment relating to the Texas University Fund, which provides funding to certain institutions of higher education to achieve national prominence as major research universities  and drive the state economy.”
    1. MIKE: I vote “yes”. As is pointed out in the LWV guide under “Cons” to this amendment, “Proposition 5 continues the unequal treatment of public universities in Texas,” and, “Proposition 5 would provide stable research funding for only four additional public universities at this time (those funded by the Texas University Fund).”
    2. MIKE: And yet, I generally favor any additional money towards education, since Texas is so stingy in that regard.
15. PROPOSITION 6 (SJR 75): “The constitutional amendment creating the Texas water fund to assist in financing water projects in this state.”
    1. MIKE: I vote “yes” here. I’m not sure why this requires a constitutional amendment as opposed to simply legislating this fund, but it seems like a good way for the State to aid localities in developing needed water infrastructure.
16. PROPOSITION 7 (SJR 93): “The constitutional amendment providing for the creation of the Texas energy fund to support the construction, maintenance, modernization, and operation of electric generating facilities.“
    1. MIKE: I vote “no” on this one. It discriminates against renewable energy for no apparent reason except to create a new State boondoggle for the petrochemical industry. It’s also the State picking winners and losers, something conservatives are supposed to be against.
    2. ANDREW: This amendment is opposed by groups across the political spectrum, according to Ballotpedia. That has to count for something.
17. PROPOSITION 8 (HJR 125): “The constitutional amendment creating the broadband infrastructure fund to expand high-speed broadband access and assist in the financing of connectivity projects.”
    1. MIKE: I vote “yes”. The US is actually far behind other industrialized nations in high-speed broadband infrastructure. It’s nice to see Texas actually being forward-looking for a change and putting State muscle into necessary infrastructure.
    2. ANDREW: I’m a bit put off by the amount of corporate support behind this amendment, but at least the broadband companies aren’t screwing the public over while enriching themselves this time. Lots of smaller communities need Internet access, and as Mike says, the US has a lot of catching up to do in making Internet service suck less in places it is This amendment should help solve both of those problems.
18. PROPOSITION 9 (HJR 2): “The constitutional amendment authorizing the 88th Legislature to provide a cost-of-living adjustment to certain annuitants of the Teacher Retirement System of Texas.”
    1. MIKE: I vote “yes” here. It seems that at some point in time, there was passed a Texas constitutional amendment with the typically wrong-headed conservative notion of constitutionally limiting State spending. This cap is not the same as the requirement for the State to pass balanced budgets, which is painful-but-necessary. This amendment allows a one-time exception to the cap and seems to fall into the category of, “it’s about time.”
    2. MIKE: I’d love to see this open a door to discussing the repeal of stupid and short-sighted constitutional amendments that really don’t belong in a State constitution except that a party in power wanted to enshrine something for all time.
    3. ANDREW: A bunch of this year’s amendments would be great catalysts for that discussion. 
    4. ANDREW: This amendment leaves untouched some other problems with the Teacher Retirement System, but every little helps, and I’m sure it will mean a lot to the retired educators who will benefit from it.
19. PROPOSITION 10 (SJR 87): ”The constitutional amendment to authorize the legislature to exempt from ad valorem taxation equipment or inventory held by a manufacturer of medical or biomedical products to protect the Texas healthcare network and strengthen our medical supply chain.”
    1. MIKE: I vote “no”. This amendment is a targeted solution to a systemic tax problem.
    2. MIKE: I’ve always had a philosophical objection to property taxes on fluctuating business inventory and non-installed business property (such as desks, computers, etc.). These kinds of property taxes are in place because Texas refuses to have a progressive income tax instead.
    3. MIKE: Inventory taxes artificially distort business planning and can create periodic shortages in emergencies. They also create unnecessary bookkeeping headaches for businesses that are already getting federal tax breaks on such property as one-time write-offs or annualized depreciation. If you think about it, it’s ironic that the feds are allowing tax breaks on things that Texas insists on taxing.
    4. MIKE: However, I vote against this exemption not because it’s a bad idea, but because I think the whole idea of inventory taxes needs to be rethought and probably repealed.
    5. ANDREW: I agree, but for a slightly different reason. I really see no tangible benefit to the average Texan in this amendment. It reads to me like a corporate tax break that happens to benefit the medical industry and thus might – might – lead to more hospitals in Texas. Unless those hospitals are going to be nonprofit and/or cooperative, so that they’ll have incentives to keep patient costs down and thus serve low-income communities (unlikely), I don’t think that chance is worth losing the tax revenue from for-profit companies. If this same language were being proposed to benefit oil and gas companies, I think most people would immediately see it for what it is.
20. PROPOSITION 11 (SJR 32): “The constitutional amendment authorizing the legislature to permit conservation and reclamation districts in El Paso County to issue bonds supported by ad valorem taxes to fund the development and maintenance of parks and recreational facilities.”
    1. MIKE: I vote “yes”. Localities deserve the right to create park land as they see fit, and humans benefit from increased green space. Parks provide government-supported free access to such space and is a social good. Parks also benefit the environment, providing natural cooling for surrounding areas and habitat for small animals and birds. Park land also helps to mitigate flooding by creating or preserving surface area that is permeable to runoff.
    2. ANDREW: I find it interesting that a similar amendment was proposed and failed in 2011. El Paso Matters reports that the 2011 proposition was rejected by 52% of voters statewide, but approved by 53% of El Paso County voters.
    3. ANDREW: One of the arguments against it at the time was that there wasn’t a parks and recreation district for the county yet, and that it seemed backwards to authorize this power without having a district to use it first. There still doesn’t seem to be a parks and rec district for the county, but both this proposition and the one from 2011 would have given that power to conservation and reclamation districts, also known as Municipal Utility Districts, which do exist in El Paso County and are already responsible for maintaining parks. 
    4. ANDREW: I think all this really indicates that there’s no reason to vote against this amendment, especially not if you live outside of El Paso County. Frankly, there’s a conversation to be had about whether purely-local issues like these should be on the state ballot at all.
21. PROPOSITION 12 (HJR 134): “The constitutional amendment providing for the abolition of the office of county treasurer in Galveston County.”
    1. MIKE: I vote “no”. Aside from an Office of County Treasurer seeming like a good thing in the political scheme of checks and balances, I’m especially suspicious of anything purely political coming from Austin in the form of a constitutional amendment.
    2. ANDREW: What interests me about this amendment is that the sitting Galveston County Treasurer, Hank Dugie (Republican), supports it, and I usually give weight to the opinions of the people who have done the job when deciding whether a position should be abolished. In this case, other county treasurers are opposing the amendment, possibly because Dugie seems to believe that all county treasurer positions are unnecessary. That suggests that if passed, this amendment may inspire efforts to abolish other county treasurer positions as well.
22. PROPOSITION 13 (HJR 107): “The constitutional amendment to increase the mandatory age of retirement for state justices and judges.”
    1. MIKE: I admit to being torn on this one. An argument in favor is that State justices and judges are elected, so we’re not talking lifetime appointments here. At least in theory, judges who are incompetent or way outside the mainstream can be voted out. But of course, this is Texas.
    2. MIKE: However, an argument against is that a mandatorily retired judge can still be called upon to serve in a “visiting” capacity.
    3. MIKE: So on balance, I’m voting “no” on Prop 13.
23. PROPOSITION 14 (SJR 74): “The constitutional amendment providing for the creation of a centennial parks conservation fund to be used for the creation and improvement of state parks.”
    1. MIKE: I vote “yes” on this one. I consider the arguments I’ve seen against it as being essentially anti-social and selfishly libertarianesque. (BTW, “libertarianesque” is a word I just coined. I like it better than “libertarian-ish”.)
24. MIKE: There is also a Harris County bond proposition on the ballot.
25. Harris County Bond Issue, Proposition A: FUNDING FOR HARRIS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT D/B/A HARRIS HEALTH SYSTEM — The issuance of $2,500,000,000 Hospital District bonds for acquiring, constructing, equipping and enlarging the District’s hospital system, including improving, renovating and developing (A) the Lyndon B. Johnson (LBJ) Hospital campus, including a replacement hospital with a Level I capable trauma center, (B) the Ben Taub Hospital campus and (C) District clinics and health centers; and the acquisition of land for authorized system purposes; and the levying of a tax sufficient to pay for the principal of and interest on the bonds and the costs of any credit agreements executed in connection with the bonds.
    1. MIKE: I vote “yes” on Prop A. It’s sorely needed and years overdue. The need has only gotten more acute as population has grown and facilities have aged.
26. MIKE: There are two City of Houston ballot propositions on the ballot if you’re a Houston resident.
27. Ballot issue “A”: City of Houston Charter Amendment — Shall the City Charter of the City of Houston be amended to enable three or more Council Members, by written request, to have item(s) placed on the agenda of a regular City Council meeting and to have such item(s) considered by Council?
    1. MIKE: I vote “yes” on this issue. At the end of the day, institutionalized rules of governance always come up against the character of the people governing. To me, this seems like a useful check and balance against Houston’s “strong mayor” form of government, and something akin to allowing popular initiative.
28. Ballot issue “B”: Proposition relating to City of Houston’s participation in certain regional organizations — Shall the City Charter of the City of Houston be amended: to require that membership by the City of Houston in a Council of Government or Metropolitan Planning Organization shall be contingent on the votes of the governing board for such council or organization being apportioned proportionately on the basis of population, notwithstanding statutory voting members, and that members representing local governments shall have at least 90 percent of the total votes; and to require the City of Houston to withdraw its membership from any non-compliant Council of Government or Metropolitan Planning Organization if the voting system is not corrected within 60 days of the effective date of adoption of the Charter provision.
    1. MIKE: I have mixed feelings on this one, but I’m voting “yes”. This proposition is aimed at the Houston-Galveston Area Council (H-GAC).
    2. MIKE: In some ways, even approving Prop B is something of a pro forma It sounds reasonable in theory: No taxation without adequate representation. Houston is the gorilla in the H-GAC, but has a disproportionately small say in it. There are numerous legal, administrative, and political reasons why even putting this Proposition into force could be irrelevant, but some see it as an incentive for the dozens of other entities in the Council to revisit Houston’s representation. If Houston were to withdraw from H-GAC, it could hurt Houston badly in the long run, with no easy alternatives permitted by State and Federal law. Charles Kuffner has an interesting piece on this Prop that is worth reading. He also has a follow-up that falls into the category of “now he tells us.”
    3. MIKE: Kuffner sums up this latter piece as follows: “… At this point, I trust that this campaign has done its homework, and I will need to see something specific to consider otherwise. It is also worth noting that H-GAC is already prepping for negotiations over its governing structure, which is the point of Prop B. It’s certainly worth weighing the potential downsides of this proposal. But don’t overlook the upside when you do.”
    4. ANDREW: I’m not a Houston resident, but my home county of Brazoria is part of H-GAC, so I do feel qualified to comment on the issue. 
    5. ANDREW: I think it’s plenty reasonable for Houstonians to want a more proportional seat at the table, with Houston representing 30% of the people living in H-GAC’s area. Having 30% of the directors on the Board makes sense. If it was a significantly larger portion, say 50% or more, I might feel that keeping the smaller cities and counties from being at Houston’s mercy would be the priority. But that isn’t the case.
    6. ANDREW: As for Prop B specifically, I worry that if it gets voted down, the push for reform inside H-GAC might lose its steam. Many negotiations require the threat of unpleasant alternatives in order to stay on track. Now, I do have to agree with Thomas, a commenter on Kuffner’s recent piece who said that political history suggests that Greg Abbott is not likely to allow Houston to form a rival area council if it leaves H-GAC. Especially if Harris County doesn’t also leave, which I’m not sure it would have to do. So Houston leaving H-GAC is likely an unpleasant alternative for everyone, but that’s part of the strength that Houston will rely on to get its reforms, and Prop B represents that strength.
29. MIKE: In other election-related news, I have not yet received my mail-in ballot. This is unusual because I typically get it in advance of the start of early voting. My wife did get her mail-in ballot, so this is not a universal problem, but I called the County Clerk’s office, and they’ve been getting a lot of calls from folks with the same complaint.
    1. I’m going to go out on a limb here, but I blame this on the Texas legislature abolishing Harris County’s elections administration office just 2 months before elections. This was a bald attempt to screw up Houston’s ability to efficiently perform its election duties, creating opportunities for this kind of snafu which Republicans can then blame Democrats for after the fact.
    2. It’s just another form of voter suppression disguised as “reform”.
    3. It looks like I may actually have to physically early vote this year for the first time in a long time.
30. MIKE: Going through this process of evaluating the proposed amendments made me think back to PROPOSITION 9, and the reason for the proposed amendment being related to a previous constitutional amendment creating a budget cap. I got to wondering how many of these amendments that seem like simple legislative initiatives are actually related to overriding that stupid spending cap. My guess is, a lot of them.
    1. MIKE: It’s definitely time to do some Texas Constitution Amendment trimming, but it will likely require a substantial and long-term change of party in Austin.
31. MIKE: Speaking of the need for a change of parties:
32. Republicans choose Johnson as fourth speaker nominee, after Trump nixes Emmer run; But it remains to be seen if he can get the support of 217 Republicans on the House floor, a hurdle the three nominees before him could not clear. By Marianna Sotomayor, Leigh Ann Caldwell, Jacqueline Alemany and Theodoric Meyer | WASHINGTONPOST.COM | October 24, 2023 at 11:45 p.m. EDT
    1. House Republicans elected two speaker-designates in the span of 10 hours Tuesday, but they failed again to fully unite the conference around a new leader, leaving the House without a speaker for the 21st day in a row.
    2. Just four hours after House Republicans selected Majority Whip Tom Emmer (Minn.) as their third speaker-designate in three weeks, he removed himself from consideration after former president Donald Trump lobbed a forceful rebuke, effectively sinking Emmer’s candidacy.
    3. That forced Republicans into a rushed election Tuesday evening as the fractious conference openly fretted about the political and electoral blowback for keeping the House inoperable. After spending two hours choosing among five candidates — including Reps. Byron Donalds (Fla.), Charles J. “Chuck” Fleischmann (Tenn.), Mark Green (Tenn.) and Roger Williams (R-Tex.) — Republicans ultimately chose Rep. Mike Johnson (La.) as their fourth speaker-designate.
    4. And though he has not been considered a candidate since his ouster exactly three weeks ago, former speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) began to gain traction Tuesday evening as dozens of his allies voted for him instead of the declared candidates. …
    5. The lack of a speaker has effectively frozen the House from doing any legislative business besides holding hearings on bills that cannot be introduced on the House floor. Republicans, who have the majority, have been unable to reopen the House to begin consideration of several priorities including: funding the government for the full year before a Nov. 17 deadline; sending supplemental assistance to Israel and other foreign countries; and addressing myriad must-pass bills, including the Farm Bill and the Federal Aviation Administration reauthorization. …
    6. As the party that earned the House majority following last year’s midterm elections, Republicans must determine within their razor-thin ranks who to permanently install as speaker. Democrats remain staunchly behind Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), but many have publicly declared that they would help Republicans temporarily empower Speaker Pro Tempore Patrick T. McHenry (R-N.C.) to oversee the House chamber and finish critical legislative business.
    7. Without a clear path forward, more Republicans are privately signaling their support for a resolution led by Rep. David Joyce (Ohio), which would empower McHenry with abilities to reopen the floor and pass legislation until Jan. 3, 2024. The resolution was not moved on last week because more Democrats than Republicans would have voted in support of it, but members in both parties are now readying for it to be introduced as soon as this week as significantly more Republicans are open to backing it, according to two people familiar with the plans. It is expected to come onto the floor under privilege, meaning the House would have 48 hours to vote on it. But Republicans who are against it could use several procedural tools to prevent final passage. …
    8. MIKE: I excerpted this article carefully because by the time you hear, things might have changed again, and maybe even a lot.
    9. MIKE: What I think I’m seeing here is a possible structural change in the Republican Party. It looks like they now have two or three irreconcilable factions that make governance impossible.
    10. MIKE: In the aftermath of Watergate, there was some speculation that the Republican Party was so besmirched by Nixon’s corruption that it might cease being a national party. The reports of its demise were obviously somewhat premature.
    11. MIKE: But this looks different to me. If there is a wing of the Party that wants to work with Democrats — any Democrats — in order to get the House moving again, that faction will likely be effectively excommunicated from the Party Conference.
    12. MIKE: This group would then have to make significant choices. Do they become declared independents? Do they join something like the Problem Solvers Caucus? Do they become effectively homeless, politically speaking” and use their numbers as a new bloc of swing votes in the house? And would any or all of this lead to a new minority third party that would seriously shake up US politics? It happened before in the 1850s.
    13. MIKE: And I will conclude this line of thought by saying that it’s never good when you start comparing US current events to the 1850s.
    14. ANDREW: Aside from getting a heaping helping of schadenfreude from watching the Republicans bicker and squabble and fail to agree on anything, I’m feeling kind of torn on this whole situation. 
    15. ANDREW: Part of me is glad to see the legislative gridlock continue, because there are some bills coming up that I don’t want to see voted on because I worry they’ll pass. But at the same time, something like not reauthorizing the FAA sounds, uh, pretty bad? For the whole country? So really, I’m not sure what outcome I want to see, which I suppose is appropriate given that there have been so many twists and turns that nobody seems sure what outcome we’re going to see. 
    16. ANDREW: I reiterate my offer to be nominated Speaker. At least all the Republicans would probably be able to agree on voting me down.
33. Powell declares her plea deal was extorted.; By @shmuelman | DAILYKOS.COM | Tuesday, October 24, 2023 at 6:34:23p CDT
    1. MIKE: Let me say in advance that I don’t usually cite Daily Kos because of the reputational and biased baggage that it carries. This story is further tainted as it’s written by an anonymous commentor, but I felt that the part of the commentary that I’ve cited is worth discussing.
    2. It didn’t even take a week…
    3. On her social media accounts, Powell has continued to push claims that the 2020 election was rigged and that prosecutors in Georgia who brought the criminal case against her are politically motivated. The newsletter published by her dark money group has shared articles arguing Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis “extorted” her guilty plea.~  businessinsider.com/…
    4. When asked if anyone has forced, threatened or promised her anything in exchange for her guilty plea, Powell responded, “other than what is recited in the documents, no.” ~ cbsnews.com/…
    5. [@shmuelman then states,] She should have her plea withdrawn and she should stand trial. No judge should accept a plea that the defendant said was coerced or extorted. If she believes she is innocent of wrongdoing, a plea is not acceptable. …
    6. MIKE: A plea bargain is usually offered in trade for useful prosecutorial information on “Bigger Fish”. But any of Sidney Powell’s future testimony has now, in my opinion and @Shmuelman’s, been irrevocably tainted by her claim that the plea was “extorted”.
    7. MIKE: Now let’s be clear on one thing, In a sense, all plea deals are extorted since the offer is for lesser sentencing penalties in return for truthful information and/or testimony.
    8. MIKE: The issue that may develop here is whether Powell’s claims of literal extortion for her plea deal may end her plea deal and expose her to harsher penalties.
34. Jamie Dimon rips central banks for being ‘100% dead wrong’ on economic forecasts; By Jeff Cox (@jeff.cox.7528) (@JeffCoxCNBCcom) | cnbc.com | Published Tue, Oct 24 202310:13 AM EDTUpdated Tue, Oct 24 20234:22 PM EDT
    1. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon on Tuesday warned about the dangers of locking in an outlook about the economy, particularly considering the poor recent track record of central banks like the Federal Reserve.
    2. In the latest of multiple warnings about what lies ahead from the head of the largest U.S. bank by assets, he cautioned that myriad factors playing out now make things even more difficult.
    3. “Prepare for possibilities and probabilities, not calling one course of action, since I’ve never seen anyone call it,” Dimon said during a panel discussion at the Future Investment Initiative summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
    4. “I want to point out the central banks 18 months ago were 100% dead wrong,” he added. “I would be quite cautious about what might happen next year.”
    5. The comments reference back to the Fed outlook in early 2022 and for much of the previous year, when central bank officials insisted that the inflation surge would be “transitory.”
    6. Along with the misdiagnosis on prices, Fed officials, according to projections released in March 2022, collectively saw their key interest rate rising to just 2.8% by the end of 2023 — it is now north of 5.25% — and core inflation at 2.8%, 1.1 percentage points below its current level as measured by the central bank’s preferred gauge.
    7. Dimon criticized “this omnipotent feeling that central banks and governments can manage through all this stuff. I’m cautious.” …
    8. MIKE: While this story is mainly about Dimon’s thoughts on the Fed and other central banks managing inflation by manipulating interest rates and other economic levers, this story brought to mind some criticism I’ve read about the constant drumbeat by some financial reporters that a recession is inevitable.
    9. MIKE: Certainly, at some point, a recession is inevitable, but the question is why constantly hammer at this prediction when Bidenomics’ indicators have been consistently stronger than so-called “expert predictions”?
    10. MIKE: Between the pandemic, the Ukraine War, war in the Middle East, the movement to a multipolar international order, Global Warming and climate change, and other goings-on in unprecedented combinations, such confident predictions seem to be an exercise in hubris. They can also become a self-fulfilling prophecy as economics is at least as much a matter of the public state-of-mind as it is quantifiable economic measurements. And public attitudes probably ultimately matter more.
    11. MIKE: Economics isn’t called the dismal science for nothing. Reporters and commentators might consider exercising caution and humility in their writings, but what else is new?
    12. ANDREW: Predicting the future is so deeply ingrained into finance that I think it must be a reflex for economists and financiers by now. I’m not sure they could control it even if they wanted to.
    13. ANDREW: The thing about economic forecasts is that so much of them is guesswork. Educated guesswork, certainly, but guesswork nonetheless. If you’re the one guessing, you can see whatever you want in the data in front of you and not even be aware of it. I think most actions taken to “improve economic prospects” are really just things that make people feel good for doing something, whether they help or not. Which is fine on its own, but unfortunately the way our society works, it means that people lose their livelihoods pretty much every time it happens.
    14. ANDREW: I think the best approach isn’t ignorance, per se, but it’s for each of us to do our best to look after ourselves, our families, and our communities. Know what the boffins are saying, but know that they’re often wrong, and that your best bet is to prepare to endure their predictions rather than actually rely on them.
35. Ukraine Draws Breath After Southern Successes; Ukraine is entering a new phase in its southern counteroffensive. Meanwhile, it needs more Western arms as a matter of urgency. By Nico Lange | CEPA.ORG [Center for European Policy Analysis] | October 23, 2023
    1. MIKE: This is fact reporting, analysis, and opinion.
    2. Ukraine’s counteroffensive is now limited to minimal attempts to move forward in the center of gravity near Robotyne [“ro-bo-TEE-nay”]. After almost five months — and most recently, only very laborious advances on foot — the troops are exhausted. 
    3. Ukraine is taking an operational pause on this section of the front and, overall, is currently redeploying troops and resources, in part out of caution given the current US budget impasse on further Ukrainian aid. 
    4. With the delivery of US ATACMS ballistic missiles, Ukraine can finally draw on precision weapons that bring all Russian command and control, logistical nodes, depots, and airfields between the front line and the Sea of Azov within the Ukrainian range. The missiles were reportedly used against Russian airfields on October 17, with British defense intelligence saying 14 helicopters were likely destroyed. 
    5. Contrary to the prophecies of doom, the Ukrainian counteroffensive can claim important successes. Heavily fortified Russian defensive positions have been overcome and Russian offensive potential in the east has been weakened as it has been forced to divert reinforcements to the south.  
    6. By eliminating radars, air defenses, and Russian ships on the western side of Crimea, Ukraine ensured [on] its own that grain ships from Odesa could sail again and expanded its operational options. 
    7. Ukrainian forces have meanwhile crossed the Dnipro River at two points, northeast of Kherson and west of Nova Kakhovka, to conduct strikes against Russian artillery positions. At present, it is an open question of whether a bridgehead and a new attack vector can emerge from this. 
    8. Russian air superiority along the front line remains a key problem. Russia conducts airstrikes and drone attacks near the front line every day, while Ukraine struggles to engage the planes and helicopters directly. 
    9. Russia is also increasingly using cheaply converted glide bombs guided by Glonass [“glo-NAHS”] satellite navigation. Lancet kamikaze drones and Glonass retrofitted glide bombs are becoming cheap tools of choice for Russia across the front. 
    10. Russia has meanwhile launched massive attacks at Avdiivka [“av-DEEV-ka”] from both the northwest and southwest. With the biggest attack in months, Russia apparently wants to regain the initiative at all costs and ideally get its hands on an urban area for wintering its troops. 
    11. The Kremlin’s commanders are conducting this offensive Soviet style, without regard for their own materiel and troops. Entire columns of Russian infantry fighting vehicles, troop carriers, and battle tanks have already perished from Ukrainian artillery fire and minefields as a result. Russian military bloggers and videos from the battlefield suggest enormous losses. 
    12. Despite this, Russian commanders continue to throw new waves of vehicles and troops into the fray, but so far without significant results. 
    13. Ukraine continues to need large quantities of artillery ammunition, which will be available only with an increase in production capacity in Europe and Ukraine. The need for mortars and mortar ammunition is also acute. 
    14. Ukraine needs constant supplies of long-range precision weapons, including ATACMS in additional variants with monobloc warheads, German Taurus missiles, and GLSDB [Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bombs]. 
    15. More air defense systems and ammunition for air defense are also needed. Here, too, an increase in production capacity has long been warranted. “Steady” delivery in small batches is too little. 
    16. Ukraine requires more and better electronic warfare capabilities to jam drones and Glonass-guided munitions. Here, partners must act quickly and also provide more assets against powerful Russian jammers. 
    17. Joint industrial production and rapidly increasing maintenance and repair capabilities in Ukraine are the right way to go. At the same time, Europeans in particular, with European and national over-year purchase commitments, must finally exploit their industry’s capacity for ammunition and weapons production. 
    18. Ukraine is concerned about declining supplies from the US because of the budget blockade in the House of Representatives. At this point, this is a political matter rather than military —there is little resource conflict between US support for Israel and for Ukraine. 
    19. Meanwhile, Europeans must take serious and sustained action against rampant sanctions evasion by European companies contributing to arms production in Russia. Sanctions need to be made watertight, and companies that continue to supply Russia through Central Asian states or China should be severely punished. 
    20. Putin has switched Russia’s economy and society to permanent war mode. The response must be increased Ukrainian and European arms and ammunition production, as well as long-term military assistance and security commitments to Ukraine.
    21. MIKE: The Ukraine war has been pushed into the background by other world and domestic crises, but the Ukrainians haven’t forgotten it.
    22. MIKE: I decided to read this whole article because daily reporting on this war has been largely buried by the media at large.
    23. MIKE: Several months into this war Volodymyr Zelenskyy told the NATO allies that they would eventually give him everything he asked for, but only after much Ukrainian blood had been spent and infrastructure destroyed. Now midway into its second year since the massive February 2022 Russian invasion, and to perhaps no one’s surprise, he’s been proven right on that count.
    24. MIKE: It’s important to remember that some of the weapons systems he wanted required training for his military, and additional production capacity needed to be developed among his allies, and of course there was fear of provoking a wider NATO conflict with Russia and fear of the use of tactical nuclear weapons by Russia. Nonetheless, with the wisdom of 20/20 hindsight, accelerating this whole process would have been far better for the Ukrainian nation, and the soldiers and civilians of both Ukraine and Russia. My premise being that a shorter but more intense war would have ultimately saved lives on both sides versus the longer, grinding war that has resulted.
    25. ANDREW: I agree somewhat, but I don’t think making the war more intense would have made it shorter. That strategy relies upon hitting the enemy hard enough that they barely have any forces left (or barely have any more they’re willing to lose), and I don’t believe that such a defeat is possible to achieve against Russia, one of the world’s largest militaries, without dragging the US and the rest of the world’s largest militaries into the war as well. If this was a minor conflict for Russia, a short, intense war proving Ukraine was more trouble than it was worth might have worked, but Putin and his party have too much riding on this invasion politically for that to be the case here.
    26. ANDREW: The good news is, I don’t think Russia wants this war to balloon with belligerents, otherwise they’d have made good on some of their threats to escalate. This is good because it establishes an unpleasant alternative, something I mentioned earlier as crucial to productive negotiations. If Ukraine can continue to establish an advantageous tactical position on the ground, they can force Putin back to the negotiating table, then use the threat of international escalation to drive Putin to agree to withdraw all Russian troops. They may not get everything they want – Putin has to be able to save face somehow otherwise fighting to the bitter end and negotiating peace will both be a political death sentence – but I bet they can get their borders pre-February 2022 back.
36. China’s leaders speed towards Japanisation; By Edward Chancellor | REUTERS.COM | October 19, 2023. 7:40 PM CDT — Updated 2 days ago
    1. China’s real estate market is in decline. Debt deflation hangs in the air. The country’s workforce is shrinking and GDP growth is trending downwards. No wonder the International Monetary Fund at its recent shindig in Marrakech warned of slowing economic growth in the People’s Republic, raising the prospect of “Japanisation” – the prolonged economic and financial malaise that afflicted its once high-flying neighbour after an asset bubble imploded three decades ago. The trouble is that China’s economic imbalances are far worse than Japan’s in 1990. And that’s before considering the ruinous economic consequences of President Xi Jinping’s autocratic rule.
    2. In recent decades China has followed the economic growth path pioneered by South Korea and Japan after 1945. What’s known as the Asian Development Model involves high levels of investment financed from domestic savings, relatively depressed household consumption and strong export growth. Countries which adopted this approach enjoyed many years of rapid economic growth. China’s dramatic development of recent decades conforms to this pattern. Over time, however, economic imbalances build up. Much investment turns out to be wasted and productivity growth slows. Credit-fuelled real estate bubbles appear. The economy hits a brick wall.
    3. That’s what happened in Japan in 1990 and to several other Asian countries a few years later. China’s current position looks vulnerable as its property bubble starts to deflate. Its economy is far more unbalanced than Japan’s was at the end of the bubble economy. China’s investment is running at around 42% of GDP, some 6 percentage points higher than Japan in 1990, according to the IMF. China’s gross savings rate is 44% of GDP, 11 points higher than Japan in 1990. While Japanese household consumption exceeded 50% of GDP at the end of the bubble, Chinese households today consume just 38% of GDP.
    4. The Japanese real estate boom is the stuff of legend. The grounds of the Imperial Palace in Tokyo were once estimated to be worth more than all the land in California. Yet China’s property bubble appears even more extreme. In the last decade, Chinese residential construction peaked at around 20% of GDP, some three times greater than Japan in 1990. Chinese real estate looks far more overvalued. At the end of last year China accounted for just over a quarter of the world’s total real estate, which had a market value of $380 trillion according to Savills. In other words, Chinese real estate in aggregate was valued at around 5.5 times the country’s GDP. By comparison, Japan’s property bubble peaked at around 4.8 times GDP.
    5. Chinese private sector credit reached 227% of GDP at the start of this year, according to the Bank for International Settlements, some 13 percentage points higher than Japan’s 1993 peak level. It’s normally the case that richer countries are able to shoulder a greater amount of debt. Yet China’s GDP per capita has reached only half of Japan’s level in 1990. Its working age population has started to contract, as also happened in Japan some three decades ago. If China is to pay down its vast debts and avoid a Japanese-style lost decade, it must improve its allocation of capital.
    6. Unfortunately, under President Xi Jinping the country appears to be moving in the opposite direction. China’s economic misdirection is catalogued in Yasheng Huang’s “The Rise and Fall of the East”. Huang, who teaches at the MIT Sloan School of Management, fears that Xi is resurrecting the bureaucratic mode of government that stifled China’s economic development for centuries in the imperial era. After 1978 the authorities gave provincial governments substantial freedom to promote economic growth and rewarded them for meeting a growth target. Now Xi is clipping the autonomy of local governments. GDP targets created their own problems – not least by encouraging officials to invest excessively in infrastructure. But the alternative is worse, says Huang. Officials are now judged on demonstrations of fealty to Xi.
    7. China’s economic miracle was created by private businesses. Beijing appears not to understand this, according to Huang. Private companies have been receiving a smaller share of bank credit, while less efficient state-owned enterprises are handed more. Xi has tormented some private industries. In late 2020 regulators suspended the initial public offering of Ant, the financial services affiliate of e-commerce giant Alibaba , (9988.HK). The following year, authorities cracked down on private tutoring companies, and tech giant Tencent (0700.HK) agreed to pay $15 billion to aid the government’s wealth distribution efforts.
    8. Beijing has also undermined the boundaries between private companies and the state. Every company is required to set up a cell tasked with ensuring that business operations are in line with the Communist Party’s priorities. National security laws stipulate that every Chinese citizen must on request assist the intelligence services. Such requirements have undermined the trust of Western collaborators, partners, and customers of Chinese firms. When telecoms equipment maker Huawei proclaims that it is a private company, fewer and fewer foreigners are persuaded. President Xi’s encouragement of aggressive “wolf warrior” diplomacy and sabre-rattling towards Taiwan have further undermined Western inclination to do business with China. This week Washington tightened controls on exports to China of advanced semiconductors used in artificial intelligence.
    9. After its bubble economy collapsed, Japan suffered three banking crises and a proliferation of zombie companies. Japanese firms became notorious for their low returns on capital. At least, unlike their contemporary Chinese counterparts, they remained recognisably private entities ultimately controlled by shareholders. Nor did Japan threaten the global trade system while its firms remained free to export, exchange technologies and acquire Western companies. Japanese society remained cohesive during the lost decades. Social unrest is much closer to the surface in Communist-ruled China.
    10. China has for decades defied predictions of impending economic collapse. But the engines of the country’s growth – the private sector, globalisation and the decision-making autonomy of regional governments – have been impaired by Xi’s actions, says Huang. The real estate collapse, instigated by Beijing’s belated attempts to deflate the bubble, has brought China closer to the edge. After 1990, Japan’s banking system was slow to resolve its bad debts. This week, Beijing ordered state-owned banks to roll over local government debt with longer terms at lower interest rates.
    11. Japan’s share of global GDP went from 17% in 1990 to 7% over the following couple of decades. On its current course, China’s economy is heading in the same direction.
    12. MIKE: A couple of useful graphs are included with this story.
    13. MIKE: There was a lot in this piece that unfortunately defied excerpting, but I think it’s an interesting comparison.
    14. MIKE: Japan and China are obviously very different countries. Differences in governance, economic philosophy, land area, population, and available natural resources within their respective borders, just to name a few.
    15. MIKE: So the key question here is, How much can we usefully extrapolate China’s economic future by the metrics being used?
    16. MIKE: I think that a key metric that’s not even mentioned here, and which may ultimately be the one unresolvable problem that will tip China’s “Japanisation” is demographics. China’s population is destined to contract dramatically over the next 50 years. The world will probably not have seen anything like it since the 14^th century plagues in Europe.
    17. MIKE: Losing between a third to half of Europe’s population, while catastrophic, may have ultimately set Europe up for success and world domination. A hundred years later came the Renaissance.
    18. MIKE: But add China’s population crash to its enormous debt numbers, and with fewer people to work at paying off that national debt, could prove an insurmountable obstacle to near-term recovery afterward.
    19. MIKE: Chinese leadership isn’t stupid. They can foresee these obstacles from their own perspective, and they will be trying to avoid Japan’s economic fate. But tie this into China’s behavior on the world stage.
    20. MIKE: I’ve said before on this show that, based on my readings and the information and analysis I’ve seen, the period from 2025 to 2035 will be a very dangerous era in world history. If we’ve already seen “peak China” economically while they are also building up militarily, China will have a window of both maximum capabilities, and declining economic and human power to support it. The status of Taiwan is always in China’s frame.
    21. MIKE: How this will resolve over the next 1 to 2 decades will be a matter of global historic importance.
    22. ANDREW: I think like most countries in the world, China has policies that help it, and policies that hinder it. But many of the policies or positions that hinder it are policies that from China’s perspective, it has been forced into.
    23. ANDREW: Many international organizations expect privatization and austerity and exploitation by foreign firms in exchange for economic support, something that always harms the nation’s people and often has little positive impact on the nation’s economy. China may not consider the risk of that support worth taking. Western politicians have often beaten war drums over China, and their so-called “wolf warrior” diplomacy is, frankly, a predictable result. If the rest of the world was willing to soften up these and other stances, I’m willing to bet China would soften as well, at least a bit. I’m not saying China hasn’t made mistakes, but I am saying the blame doesn’t lie solely with Beijing. 
    24. ANDREW: As for the future, anything is possible, but I remind us of our earlier discussion about economist predictions. My advice is the same here as it was there: prepare to endure many different possibilities, rather than rely on any single one.
    25. MIKE: “Chaos Theory” in action. Another story for a future show got me thinking along those lines.

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