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POSSIBLE TOPICS: VOTETEXAS.GOV—Voter Information; Counties vote on adding METRO to Gulf Coast Rail District; Abbott says SB4 will keep Texans safe. HPD union: ‘We’re not here to be the immigration police’; Watching Ukraine burn through ammo fighting Russia has the US Army rethinking how much it really needs for when war breaks out; Europe Moves to Fill Weapons Gap Amid Doubts About U.S. Commitment to Ukraine; NATO Leaders Try to Pin Down U.S. on Ukraine Aid as Republicans Waver; The US Army needs tanks to win a war in the Pacific, but it knows the Abrams isn’t the right tank for the job; ‘Not conducive to our survival’: Pacific islands on the climate frontline respond to Cop28 deal; What might happen to Argentina after Milei’s mega-decree?; Don’t Fall for Big Oil’s Carbon Capture Deceptions; Explainer: What new OPEC+ oil output cuts are in place after Thursday deal; More.

Welcome to Thinkwing Radio with Mike Honig where we discuss local, state, national, and international stories. My co-host, assistant producer and show editor is Andrew Ferguson.

Thinkwing Radio with Mike Honig (@ThinkwingRadio) is now on Wednesdays at 11AM (CT) or Thursdays at 6PM on KPFT 90.1 FM-HD2, Houston’s Community Media. You can also hear the show:

1. Live online at KPFT.org (from anywhere in the world!)
2. Podcast on your phone’s Podcast App
3. Visiting Archive.KPFT.ORG

Except for timely election info, the extensive list of voting resources will now be at the end.

Welcome to Thinkwing Radio with Mike Honig from KPFT Houston, at 90.1 FM-HD2, Houston’s Community Media. We discuss local, state, national, and international stories that may have slipped under your radar. 

My co-host, editor and Assistant Producer is Andrew Ferguson.

Andrew wasn’t able to join me in this week’s show, but he did prepare some comments which I will read for him as they come up. He will be editing this show, for which I am grateful.

1. Counties vote on adding METRO to Gulf Coast Rail District; By Melissa Enaje, Jessica Shorten | COMMUNITYIMPACT.COM | 2:40 PM Dec 20, 2023 CST, Updated 2:46 PM Dec 20, 2023 CST
   1. Montgomery County and Harris County commissioners each voted on requests Dec. 19 from the Gulf Coast Rail District [GCRD] regarding the addition of a full voting board seat for the Metropolitan Transit Authority of Harris County, as Fort Bend County and the city of Houston officials await their next meetings to take votes on the same issue that could potentially move forward high-speed rail projects in the region.
   2. The Gulf Coast Rail District is a cooperative between Fort Bend, Galveston, Harris, Montgomery and Waller counties alongside the city of Houston to consider potential high-speed railroad projects in the Greater Houston area. The Metropolitan Transit Authority of Harris County—also known as METRO—serves in a nonvoting capacity on the GCRD.
   3. The GCRD is part of a larger cooperative formed in 2022 called the Houston Area Rail Transformation [HART] project with a goal of “producing a collaborative and programmatic approach to leverage public and private funding opportunities for railroad projects in the region,” according to their website. The GCRD is a member of the HART alongside: Union Pacific Railroad, Burlington Northern Santa Fe Railway, Houston Belt & Terminal Railway Company, Port Terminal Railroad Association, METRO, Houston-Galveston Area Council, Texas Department of Transportation, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Railway.
   4. METRO, Galveston County and Waller County officials voted to approve the resolutions to add METRO as a member in early December. Montgomery County commissioners voted unanimously against the resolution Dec. 19, the same day Harris County commissioners voted unanimously for the resolution.
   5. [Montgomery County Judge Mark Keough said,] “I am adamantly opposed to this as it will give an imbalance in the ability to keep certain things that we as a board, and across the board with our other counties around the area, know will give [the GCRD] an edge to be able to move forward on [rail projects] that we just cannot allow.”
   6. MIKE: If that quote from Mark Keogh sounds a bit incomprehensible to you, you’re not alone. I’ve read it several times and can’t quite decipher it. I think he’s essentially saying that he fears that Montgomery County will be roped into projects it doesn’t want because it has only one vote on a board of 15. The story goes on:
   7. [GCRD Executive Director Katherine Parker said in part,] “These are just a few updates we’re making to the concurrent ordinance. … This allows us the opportunity to explore projects that are related to advanced technologies, possibly bus rapid transit. …
   8. [Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo said,] “METRO needed time to get approval of their board and to negotiate the fee structure for their membership. That puts a representative from METRO as a voting member of the Gulf Coast Rail District, which before they were just an observer.”
   9. [Harris County Precinct 3 Commissioner Tom Ramsey said,] “I wouldn’t really consider bus rapid transit as advanced transportation technology. I just didn’t understand the timing of this.” …
   10. Under the latest Texas Transportation Code signed by Gov. Greg Abbott on Nov. 14, governing bodies like the GCRD can exercise powers as intermunicipal commuter rail districts that can make decisions related to: Commuter rail facilities, Other types of passenger rail services, [and] Intercity rail services. …
   11. Fort Bend County will likely not discuss the resolution until after Jan. 1.
   12. According to GCRD Chair Carol Abel Lewis, the city of Houston will be the final entity to discuss the resolution during a future Houston City Council meeting and then package the resolutions to formally adopt the change in board structure.
   13. MIKE: The GCRD will be governed by a total of 15 directors. The City of Houston and Harris County will each get three directors; Houston and Harris County will jointly appoint one; All other Harris County cities will jointly appoint one more. Collectively, this will give Harris County a total of 8 directors out of 15. Then, Metro and Port of Houston each get one Director; Fort Bend will get two Directors; and finally, Galveston, Waller and Montgomery Counties will each get one Director.
   14. MIKE: Population, economics, and organizational quasi-independence no doubt controlled this breakdown.
   15. MIKE: The Harris County-centric apportionment may be the source of Montgomery County’s reservations, but, “… According to the GCRD ordinance, no board actions related to the location of new rail lines can be made within any of the cities, counties or municipalities without the approval from the director representing the city, county or municipality.: Further, “Any of the counties may withdraw from the GCRD for any reason, and the district may also be dissolved in accordance with the Texas Transportation Code.”
   16. MIKE: I can’t pretend to be steeped in the various implications and nuances of this, so I don’t have an opinion except as to what is reported in the story.
   17. MIKE: I do think that Harris County Precinct 3 Commissioner Tom Ramsey’s comment sounded like the snarky sour grapes of what might have been a losing vote on his side of this issue. I can kind of see how he might snipe at bus rapid transit being included as an “advanced transportation technology”, but buses are a transportation technology and their tech has advanced quite a bit over the decades. And names aren’t always entirely descriptive or inclusive. For example, as per Wikipedia, Texas still has a Railroad Commission “… that regulates the oil and gas industry, gas utilities, pipeline safety, safety in the liquefied petroleum gas industry, and surface coal and uranium mining, [but] Despite its name, it ceased regulating railroads in 2005.”
2. Abbott says SB4 will keep Texans safe. HPD union: ‘We’re not here to be the immigration police’; by Anna-Catherine Brigida | HOUSTONLANDING.ORG | December 22, 2023
   1. As the Houston Police Department chief from 2010 to 2016, Charles McClelland worked to make sure immigrant communities felt safe coming forward to speak to police and report crime. Now he’s watching Gov. Greg Abbott undo much of this work by signing Senate Bill 4, a new law that makes it a state crime to cross into Texas illegally from Mexico. 
   2. “I think about the consequences it’s gonna have on public safety,” McClelland said. “If I’m a person that’s here legally and my mom and dad came over illegally. My grandparents came over illegally. If they become a victim of crime, I don’t want them to report that. Because they’re putting themselves in jeopardy and harm’s way that they could get deported.”
   3. Although proponents of the bill say it is meant to deal with the increase in border crossings, it applies across the state, so law enforcement in cities like Houston with large immigrant populations will have to decide how to enforce the law. Days after Abbott signed SB 4, which the governor and supporters say will keep Texans safe, local Houston law enforcement say the law risks having the opposite effect by straining resources and breaking down trust with immigrant communities.
   4. “We’re here to help victims of crime. We’re not here to be the immigration police. It’s not our job,” said Doug Griffith, president of the Houston Police Officers’ Union.
   5. SB 4, which greatly expands the role of state and local law enforcement in immigration arrests and deportations, comes at a time when resources are already stretched. Harris County Jail is notoriously overcrowded, and at least 62 people have died in custody from unnatural causes between 2012 and 2022. The jail remained out of compliance with Texas minimum safety standards as of August. Cases snaking their way through the Harris County court system face a two-year backlog. Appeals can languish for years. Evidence can take six months to two years to be analyzed in the crime lab. 
   6. “To have local law enforcement playing as immigration officers — a role they’re not trained for — is probably the worst thing right now for the criminal justice system as a whole here in Harris County,” said Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo in a press conference, stressing that taxpayers would have to foot the bill for the additional jail costs.
   7. Griffith agreed that SB 4 is a resource issue. “As far as Houston, we don’t have the manpower or the time to be able to do anything like that,” he said.
   8. When new state laws such as SB 4 are passed, HPD’s legal department reviews the law and then issues guidance, Griffith explained. … [I]mmigration enforcement, which falls to the federal government … [S]aid Griffith, “This department is not going to produce a task force to go after illegal aliens. It’s just not gonna happen.” …
   9. [T]he district attorney’s office could decide not to accept charges for illegal entry, classified as a class B misdemeanor under SB 4. This would mean police in Harris County could not arrest anyone for the crime because they need the DA’s office to accept charges first, explained Griffith. The district attorney’s office declined to comment while it is reviewing the law. 
   10. The Harris County’s Sheriff Office and HPD did not respond to requests for comments about their position on the law. However, they have issued progressive policies in regards to dealing with immigrant communities, such as the sheriff’s office limiting cooperation with Immigration and Customs Enforcement by ending in 2017 a 287(g) agreement to check the immigration status of people in their custody and hand them over to Immigration and Customs Enforcement.
   11. McClelland, the former HPD chief, said that trust with immigrant communities is key. “You want people to come forward and report a crime regardless of their immigration status,” McClelland said. State lawmakers have been “short-sighted” in passing the bill without thinking of how it would impact Houston and other cities, he added. …
   12. MIKE: There’s more to this story, and it’s worth reading in its entirety. In my opinion, the bottom line is that combining policing with immigration enforcement makes everyone less safe, and makes law enforcement and crime prevention more difficult.
3. Going on to national and international news: Watching Ukraine burn through ammo fighting Russia has the US Army rethinking how much it really needs for when war breaks out; By Chris Panella | BUSINESSINSIDER.COM | Nov 19, 2023 @ 5:30 AM CST
   1. With both sides of the war in Ukraine burning through ammo at astonishing rates, the US Army says it’s rethinking what it needs for a potential large-scale future fight. 
   2. But with production, particularly of 155mm artillery shells, ramping up, the Army is also looking at how to modernize its ongoing manufacturing and stockpiles — both to continue supporting allies like Ukraine and Israel, as well as have enough ammo should the US find itself in a high-intensity conflict of its own, especially against a major military power.
   3. “The Army is looking very closely at the war in Ukraine and how munitions are used to inform our decisions regarding munitions requirements,” Douglas R. Bush, the assistant secretary of the Army for Acquisition, Logistics and Technology, explained to Business Insider. “Recognizing the use of large quantities of artillery on both sides of the conflict, the Army is investing to better prepare for potential conflict, and to support Ukraine as they continue to fight for their freedom.”
   4. Part of those efforts are ambitious short-term goals, like upping 155mm production from just shy of 30,000 shells a month right now to a massive 100,000 shells a month by the end of 2025. But another larger, more long-term effort appears to be securing a stronger supply chain and more constant manufacturing of munitions both domestically and with the support of US partners.
   5. “The Army began making investments over a year ago in our organic and commercial industrial base to accelerate production and improve capacity for 155mm and other munitions, in order to meet demands for Ukraine, allied partners, and US stockpile requirements,” Bush said. …
   6. Ukraine relies heavily on systems like towed 155mm and 105mm howitzers and rocket artillery assets like the High-Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), pummeling Russian forces miles away and devastating advancing troops and vehicles, as well as command, control, and logistics. It’s heavily relied on the US and NATO allies for its supply of ammo, and many Western nations have had their stockpiles stressed by the provision of this vital aid. …
   7. For the US, Ukraine’s biggest single-nation donor, the constant bombardment from both sides has apparently been eye-opening, offering insights into not only how much artillery ammunition Ukraine needs to sustain its war effort, but also how much ammo the US may need in a future fight. It’s also offered lessons into production.
   8. “This conflict has allowed the Army to recognize that challenge of implementing multiple initiatives to expand industrial capacity without disrupting current production,” Bush told Business Insider. …
   9. MIKE: At the start of the Ukraine war, the US had a single factory for this key artillery ammunition. It was in a 100-year-old Army-owned building in Pennsylvania. As discussed in an early story on the war’s need for more production facilities, the Defense Department is now looking at opening one or more new facilities, as well as further upgrading the old one.
   10. MIKE: Also, some weapons systems like Stingers have been stockpiled, but are no longer manufactured.
   11. MIKE: On the topic of military preparedness, at the outset of WW1, the US Army Air Corps consisted of a handful of obsolete planes. That’s obsolete in 1914! Also, troops were trained with wooden rifles because there weren’t enough to go around. As late as 1917, some troops were deployed to Europe with these training rifles still in hand.
   12. MIKE: The US military has learned some pivotal doctrinal lessons over the centuries. This lesson of the hardware attrition rate when fighting a modern war will go down as one of them.
   13. ANDREW: On the subject of wooden rifles, I once heard a story about how the Irish Republican Army gave combat training with sticks and branches at first because they couldn’t afford rifles. I couldn’t verify it, so it might not be true, but it’s an interesting folk tale-esque story. Like many folk tales, though, it contains a nugget of truth in that war often requires forces to get inventive when materiel is low. US forces may end up having to shift into that mindset if some warmonger pushes another over the edge before stockpiles can be restored.
   14. MIKE: On that topic, there was once a Doctor Who episode where they landed on a planet that had been at war so long that the combatants were fighting with weapons ranging from modern to medieval; basically, whatever they could still manage. At the extreme, I could see that happening.
4. Europe Moves to Fill Weapons Gap Amid Doubts About U.S. Commitment to Ukraine; Germany, Norway, Britain and others are increasing weapons production to help Kyiv. But the aid may be coming too late as winter looms and Ukraine’s counteroffensive against Russia stalls. By Lara Jakes | NYTIMES.COM | Nov. 18, 2023
   1. Faced with growing American reluctance to send more military aid to Ukraine, European leaders are moving to fill the gap, vowing new support for Kyiv as it battles Russia in a war in Europe’s backyard.
   2. Several countries — including Germany, Britain and Norway — are increasing production of weapons, especially the artillery ammunition that Ukraine so badly needs. Germany, once a laggard in providing aid to Ukraine, announced a week ago that it planned to double its support to $8.5 billion in 2024 and would deliver more crucial air-defense systems by the end of this year. And European Union states are gearing up to train an additional 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers, bringing the total so far to 40,000. …
   3. In a worrying sign, the E.U. appears likely to fail an early test of its ability to sustain backing for Ukraine. A much touted pledge to donate one million rounds of 155-millimeter-caliber shells within one year to Ukraine is now widely expected to fall short. …
   4. European officials have long worried that rising Republican opposition to the military support that the United States is sending to Ukraine — $45 billion in weapons and other equipment so far — would diminish the leading American role in funding the war should President Biden lose re-election. …
   5. “We Europeans, who have the necessary means to do so, have to be willing politically and materially to help Ukraine and to continue to do so, even to take over from the United States if, as is perhaps likely, its support diminishes,” Josep Borrell Fontelles, the European Union’s top diplomat, said recently.
   6. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 jolted European leaders who realized their militaries and defense industries were ill-prepared for the war in their backyard. It was a “rude awakening,” Sweden’s defense minister, Pal Jonson, said at the Clingendael forum, but one that united most of Europe behind Ukraine — considered by many to be something of a buffer zone between Russia and NATO.
   7. “If the West stops supporting Ukraine, there will be no more Ukraine and no more European security architecture,” Yonatan Vseviyov, a top Estonian diplomat, said in an interview published … on the Ukrainian news agency RBC. …
   8. Germany is now the second-largest supplier of military aid to Ukraine, according to data released by the Kiel Institute from July, the most recent available. (On Friday, Germany’s government temporarily paused discussions over its 2024 budget to deal with an unrelated court ruling, but experts said the aid to Ukraine was not expected to be affected.)
   9. Europe is also newly poised to supply Ukraine with one of the weapons it needs most: 155-millimeter caliber shells that are fired from the howitzers and that are the backbone of Ukraine’s military.
   10. Despite the assumed failure of the campaign by E.U. member states and Norway to donate one million of the rounds, officials and experts said just making the promise to provide the ammunition has helped revitalize Europe’s defense industry.
   11. MIKE: The article goes on with additional reporting on global and regional politics, and production projections.
   12. MIKE: The story includes discussion of how it wasn’t just the NATO allies who were caught by surprise at ammo consumption. The Russians have also been forced to seek foreign ammunition sources, and the Russians already had more shells stockpiled and more factory facilities to replace them.
   13. MIKE: Digging into these stories and thinking about their implications is terrifying. It makes me wonder again how anyone can even survive on a modern battlefield. And it makes me wonder how any country that starts a war thinks it can actually win it. At best, it just loses less.
   14. ANDREW: Agreed wholeheartedly. It’s hopelessly naïve, I know, but maybe the expenses incurred and casualties mounted in this amount of time will make the Russian invasion of Ukraine the war to finally actually end all wars. Or, at least, it might if all the world’s politicians suddenly found themselves on its front lines.
   15. REFERENCE: NATO Leaders Try to Pin Down U.S. on Ukraine Aid as Republicans Waver; Continued American funding for Ukraine was a key concern for leaders in the military alliance, who met as the current allocation was running down and a Ukrainian counteroffensive appeared stalled. By Lara Jakes, Reporting from NATO headquarters in Brussels | NYTIMES.COM | Nov. 28, 2023 / Updated 3:44 p.m. ET
5. This next story is from a month ago, but in the context of military planning and procurement it is still timely: The US Army needs tanks to win a war in the Pacific, but it knows the Abrams isn’t the right tank for the job; By Michael Peck | BUSINESSINSIDER.COM | Nov 7, 2023, 5:17 PM CST
   1. Can one tank still be good enough fight on two different battlefields? That’s the dilemma the US Army faces as it grapples with designing a next-generation tank that can fight in both Europe and the Pacific.
   2. Rivals in both theaters — chiefly Russia and China — have studied US armored vehicles and the way they’re used and are fielding weapons to counter them. The Army’s main battle tank, the M1 Abrams, now faces two main problems.
   3. One is that it’s an aging Cold War design. “The M1 Abrams will not dominate the 2040 battlefield,” the Army Science Board, a scientific advisory body, warned in a recent report on next-generation armored vehicles. “All of the M1’s advantages in mobility, firepower and protection are at risk.”
   4. The other is that the 70-ton Abrams is designed to fight on the plains of Europe, not the jungles and remote islands of the Pacific. “Logistics and support, difficult in both theaters, are exacerbated by the Indo-Pacific’s longer distances and less developed infrastructure, including ports and airfields,” the report said.
   5. The M1 was originally designed in the mid-1970s and is due for replacement as the US military adapts to an era in which weapons like drones and smart artillery shells pose new threats to armored vehicles. But even as rivals upgrade their tanks and anti-tank weapons, it may be an immense challenge for US planners to agree on what a tank fit for global operations looks like.
   6. Tanks have always been Western-centric. They were invented by Britain, were the leading edge of the Nazi blitzkrieg, and were manufactured in enormous quantities by Russia and America. …
   7. But in the Pacific wars of the 20th century, both on islands and continental East Asia, tanks often played a secondary role in what were mostly infantry battles fought on rough, roadless terrain or on beaches and surf zones.
   8. Japan did use a small number of armored vehicles against poorly armed Chinese troops in the Sino-Japanese War of 1937-1945. British troops in 1942 were shocked when Japanese armor advanced through the “impenetrable” jungle on the Malay Peninsula. During the island-hopping campaign of 1942-1945, US Army tanks provided valuable fire support against entrenched Japanese defenders (and performed a similar role in the Korean and Vietnam wars.)
   9. Today’s US Army is fully aware of the value of tanks as part of a combined-arms team, even in a theater unfriendly to armor.
   10. “Tank and armor capabilities in the Pacific is absolutely necessary for conducting operations in restricted terrain,” Gen. Charles Flynn, commander of US Army Pacific, told reporters in September. “And there is plenty of restricted terrain out here.”
   11. This doesn’t mean “vehicles must be tailored for individual theaters,” the Army Science Board noted. But if the Army is serious about preparing for Pacific conflict, fifth-generation combat vehicles — the replacements for the Abrams as well as the Bradley infantry fighting vehicle — will have to [be] light enough to be easily transported and supplied by sea and air.
   12. That description hardly applies to the Army’s current armor force …
   13. Even the best tank is useless if it can’t reach the battlefield. The Army Science Board cites a Center for Army Analysis war game that “demonstrated armor’s value in Taiwan’s defense, but struggles with deployment and sustainment precluded US armor’s arrival in sufficient numbers before China achieved a fait accompli.”
   14. Regardless of America’s pivot to the Pacific, the Abrams’s days were numbered.
   15. The M1 [Abrams] is vulnerable to drones as well as top-attack anti-tank missiles, and its armor might be penetrated by the 125-mm guns on Russia’s T-90 and China’s Type 99 tanks, the Army Science Board found. Too many Abrams are sidelined by maintenance issues, but even if enough were available, “the M1 at 70 tons or greater is not tactically, operationally, or strategically mobile,” the report said.
   16. Retrofitting tanks with new technologies, such as robotics and automation, would be as useless as expecting that “new technology will maximally improve a 1980s commercial vehicle,” the report argued. Bolting new tech onto an aging tank would also do little to counter advances in anti-tank guided missiles, such as China’s Red Arrow 12.
   17. Yet neither do Army experts believe that autonomous robot tanks will be a viable alternative by 2040. That means America’s next-generation tank will have to be a manned vehicle that is lighter than the Abrams but with better protection against advanced threats.
   18. The Army Science Board assessed various alternatives. A 60-ton tank with a 130-mm gun and a three-person crew? Not mobile enough. A 40-ton light tank with a heavy cannon? Not enough protection. The study did seem intrigued by a “robotic wingman” concept of a 30-ton vehicle, armed with a hypervelocity missile, that would accompany manned tanks.
   19. The Army has spent two decades searching for next-generation armor, dating back to the Future Combat System debacle of the early 2000s. Current projects include the XM30 — a replacement for the Bradley that weighs in at 50-plus tons — and the 40-ton M10 Booker, which may or may not be deemed a light tank. Whether these vehicles will meet the requirements of both the Pacific and Europe remains to be seen.
   20. Significantly, the report notes that the analytical capabilities, such as modeling and simulation, that guided the design process for the M1 are now “not in evidence” for development of a next-generation tank.
   21. Studies done during the M1’s development “relied heavily on analysis to substantiate their findings and recommendations,” the report says. “Little or no such capability exists today.”
   22. MIKE: That last part seems astonishing to me. I understand that we’re not talking about simple CAD CAM — Computer Aided Design and Computer Aided Manufacture. This is CAD CAM for Combat — maybe call it CAD-CAM-Com — which is a more complicated thing. Nonetheless, it’s amazing how established capabilities can atrophy as generational experience leaves the scene. We knew how to build Saturn V rockets, but institutionally forgot, so we have the SLS Artemis rocket that may be too slow to build and too expensive to fly.
   23. MIKE: It’s been so long since the US built nuclear weapons that some of the technology had to be redeveloped in order to update the weapons we have.
   24. MIKE: But back to the thrust of the story … The heaviest US tank in WW2 was the Sherman. It couldn’t go one-on-one with a German Panzer or Leopard, but it was faster and cheaper to build and we built more of them. As the Russians have been known to say, “Quantity has a quality all its own”.
   25. MIKE: The war in Ukraine, despite what some tank enthusiasts say, has been an eye-opener for tankers. And the battlefield for tanks will only get tougher. The next US Main Battle Tank will have to be something very new. Armor needs to somehow be stronger but lighter. Defending against anti-tank weapons will have be less passive — less dependent on better and heavier armor — and perhaps more dependent on active defenses like small numbers of anti-missile missiles, or point-defense guns, or maybe even laser defenses, although the latter would also mean more energy from batteries or engines or some combination, and that unavoidably means more weight, which is part of the problem in the first place.
   26. MIKE: Perhaps the biggest challenge will be time. Anti-tank weapons can be built and improved much faster than tanks, and they’re much cheaper to build. So time will be the biggest enemy in this upgrade.
   27. ANDREW: Hopefully the Tank of the Future won’t turn out to be a giant money hole like so many fighter jets and other defense programs before it, but I’m not holding my breath. I do think having reasonable national defense capabilities used purely for actual defense of the US and its allies (so no first strikes) is reasonable, so I’m not outright rejecting the premise that the Abrams needs a replacement. I just don’t want it given priority over things like food aid, schools, or roads… or a functioning electric grid.
   28. REFERENCE: Tanks in World War II — From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
   29. REFERENCE: Close-in weapon system — From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
   30. REFERENCE (For Fun): Point Defense Cannon (PDC) — EXPANSE.FANDOM.COM
6. Last week, we covered some stories on the end results of the COP28 meetings. This was a story we wanted to discuss but just didn’t have time for: ‘Not conducive to our survival’: Pacific islands on the climate frontline respond to Cop28 deal; The agreement was hailed as a win for climate action, but Pacific campaigners say it is too little too late in a rapidly warming world. By Sera Sefeti | THEGUARDIAN.COM | Tue 19 Dec 2023 14.00 EST — Last modified on Tue 19 Dec 2023 20.57 EST
   1. “We are now swimming against the tide and trying our best to survive,” Lavenia Naivalu told Cop28 this month.
   2. Speaking on an Indigenous panel representing the Pacific, the iTaukei woman from the island of Yasawa in Fiji told the annual climate conference that rising sea levels and flash flooding are “a real threat” to daily life in her country. Last month alone two flash floods in Fiji’s central and eastern divisions caused landslides and blocked roads.
   3. After years of campaigning for stronger action on climate change, small vulnerable nations like Fiji hoped Cop28 would deliver a meaningful global commitment to preventing its worst effects from wreaking havoc on their shores.
   4. But despite a landmark consensus on loss and damage funding and fossil fuels, those on the frontline of the climate crisis are disappointed by a final agreement that does little to grapple with the reality of a rapidly warming world. …
   5. On 30 November, the opening day of the conference, a historic loss and damage fund was established to help developing nations alleviate the impacts of climate change. Two weeks later, the leaders of almost 200 countries agreed on a climate deal calling on all nations to transition away from fossils fuels.
   6. The president of Cop28, Sultan Al Jaber, was celebrated for shepherding through the commitments. However, Drue Slatter, a Pacific climate campaigner and communications manager for 350.org, says much of the credit is due to small island countries, who have laid the groundwork by fighting for vulnerable nations over many years.
   7. And although these were significant wins, many Pacific campaigners and negotiators say the deal does not go anywhere near far enough.
   8. Cop summits, which are defined by a series of negotiations and renegotiations of texts introduced or already agreed upon at previous conferences, can be hard to penetrate at the best of times, Slatter says.
   9. Despite the solidarity among Pacific island nations who relayed messages to negotiators to hold the line, Cop28 was particularly difficult, hosted as it was by the United Arab Emirates, a fossil fuel producing nation, and attended by a record number of fossil fuel lobbyists.
   10. As Cop28 wore on, negotiations heated up around the language of the commitment: would the world work to “phase out” or “phase down” fossil fuels? Eventually the wording was watered down to “transition away”.
   11. “It is not conducive to our survival,” Slatter says. “The fact that Cop28 has 2,456 lobbyists means that the space has been compromised – and the final outcome provides loopholes that benefit the fossil fuel industry. …
   12. The Alliance of Small Island States (Aosis) was active in the negotiations at Cop28, “working hard to coordinate the 39 small island developing states that are disproportionally affected by climate change”. But in a moment of almost tragic symbolism, Aosis said it was absent from the room when the decision on the global stocktake text was gavelled.
   13. The global stocktake is a process that occurs every five years to collectively assess the world’s progress on climate action, identifying where countries are falling short to inform future plans. It ultimately guides policymakers and stakeholders towards stronger commitments to meet the goals of the Paris climate agreement.
   14. In a statement read out after the [stocktake] text was decided, Aosis said that it contained “many good elements” but “the course correction that is needed has not yet been secured”. …
   15. The alliance raised a number of other concerns, including paragraphs on abatement that could be perceived in a way that underwrites further fossil fuel expansion, and a “litany of loopholes” that do not deliver on subsidy phase-out and do not “advance us beyond the status quo”.
   16. On the final day of the conference, the UN chief, António Guterres, delivered a message to those who opposed the “phase out” of fossil fuels in the final text: “I want to say that a fossil fuel phase out is inevitable, whether they like it or not.
   17. “Let’s hope it doesn’t come too late.”
   18. In the Pacific it is already too late. The impacts of climate change are happening now, with cyclones, droughts and rising sea levels compromising people’s basic human rights.
   19. In the negotiating room at Cop28, the Pacific team experienced strong pushback from big emitter countries, but punched above their weight in efforts to get the world to understand that this is a matter of survival for their island nations.
   20. “We cannot afford to return to our islands with the message that this process has failed us,” Aosis said in a statement. …
   21. James Bhagwan, the secretary general of the Pacific Conference of Churches and a strong advocate for climate justice, was on the ground at Cop28 providing support to negotiators and activists. He said it was now important for friends of the Pacific to show support.
   22. Bhagwan fondly recalled his November meeting with Australia’s environment minister, Chris Bowen, in Canberra, saying: “It was good to hear some of the projects that Australia is working on domestically in their transition.”
   23. But he said the recent announcement that Australia cannot completely phase out fossil fuels was concerning, especially considering its desire to co-host Cop31 alongside the Pacific. …
   24. The Pacific may be disappointed with the final result of Cop28, but it is still grateful for incremental progress and holds out hope that more practical transitions will take place.
   25. “Our lived experience tells us we are running out of time, and the way most of these Cops end up tells us we are running out of time,” Bhagwan said.
   26. “We are coming away from these meetings too often now where our leaders and our negotiators are in tears because their hard work gets watered down at the last minute.
   27. “We need those who say they are on our side to be on our side now.”
   28. TAGS: Cop28 Pacific islands Climate crisis Fiji Asia Pacific
   29. MIKE: I do want to say in passing that ‘Not conducive to our survival’ is a masterful understatement.
   30. ANDREW: I find it rather alarming that there were any fossil fuel lobbyists present, much less almost two and a half thousand of them. One might argue they have a stake in the discussion and thus a right to be there, and if the COPs were an energy policy or trade summit, I would agree. But these events are sessions of the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, and as such the only relevance these lobbyists have to the issue is as accessories to the crime of polluting the planet.
   31. ANDREW: One might also take a hard look at how Aosis was left out of the global stocktake decision — their statement says they were delayed due to trying to coordinate amongst their member states, and yet the conference did not wait for them. Now, one could say that the majority of parties and stakeholders were in the room, and there was likely a schedule to keep. These are all fair considerations. But I think they are matched — perhaps even outweighed — by the fact that Aosis’ members are on the front lines of global warming. These are the people that will drown first, not because of unpreparedness or deservingness on their part, but because the other nations did not care enough to do their part to save them… including doing things like making decisions when they aren’t in the room. As I said, this COP had some encouraging news, and some worrying news. This news? Downright shameful.
   32. MIKE: I don’t necessarily disagree with anything Andrew just said, although this did make me think of last week’s story where Viktor Orbán left the room so the EU could vote on Ukraine and Moldova.
7. What might happen to Argentina after Milei’s mega-decree?; By Euronews with AFP | EURONEWS.COM | Published on 23/DEC/2023 – 17:20
   1. Just days after taking office, and on the eve of the festive holidays, Milei presented his DNU, or “necessary and urgent” decree to loosen some of the rules governing the country’s economy as annual inflation hit 160%.
   2. Argentina’s far-right libertarian President Javier Milei unleashed a mega-decree midweek changing or altogether scrapping 366 economic rules, a country’s first.
   3. None of its previous leaders, democratically elected presidents and dictators alike, attempted such a massive dismantling of the system.
   4. It is also precisely what Milei promised on the campaign trail, brandishing a live chainsaw to symbolise his bid to slash public spending, his response to Argentina’s triple-digit inflation after decades of financial mismanagement.
   5. While, according to Argentine law, Congress still has the power to sink Milei’s program, many are concerned his deregulatory decisions might make matters worse in the South American country of 45.8 million. 
   6. Ten days after taking office, and on the eve of the festive holidays, Milei presented his DNU, or “necessary and urgent” decree to loosen some of the rules governing the country’s economy as annual inflation hit 160%.
   7. One big change will be the removal of all rules between tenant and landlord, such as laws putting a cap on rental increases.
   8. In recent years, landlords have increasingly priced their properties in US dollars to avoid being stuck with rental income long overtaken by soaring inflation. This has been a nightmare for renters in a country where access to dollars has been strictly controlled. The deregulation will now make charging rent in dollars legal.
   9. MIKE: As an aside, this de facto use of the US dollar to settle debts is probably part of the rationale for Milei’s desire to turn the US dollar into the national currency. Going on …
   10. Milei has also loosened labour laws, with the trial period for new employees going from three to eight months. Compensation laws for dismissal without cause have been modified in favour of companies and he plans to renegotiate labour agreements in force since 1975. 
   11. He also scrapped limits on exports and said the internet market will be liberalised.
   12. Milei also ditched rules preventing the privatisation of state enterprises and has already set his sights on national airline Aerolineas Argentinas and oil company YPF, while namedropping Elon Musk’s Starlink as the company meant to take over the country’s satellite system, ARSAT.
   13. He also moved to limit the right to strike, which is enshrined in the constitution.
   14. Additionally, he moved to strike all subsidies to the public transportation company, which might see an immediate ten-fold increase in ticket prices in one of the most urbanised countries in the world. …
   15. Before the announcement of the decree, the new government had already devalued Argentina’s peso by more than 50% and announced huge cuts in generous state subsidies of fuel and transport from January. …
   16. Of those protesting his measures he said: “There may be people suffering from Stockholm syndrome. They are infatuated with a model that impoverishes them.”
   17. The opposition — recently ousted from government — has slammed Milei for the decree and sees it as a way to bypass his lack of a majority in Congress.
   18. Milei’s Libertad Avanza party, which is only two years old, has only 40 of the 257 seats in the lower house, and seven of 72 in the Senate.
   19. “This is not the way. Send the reforms as bills. Do not be afraid of democratic debate,” said German Martinez, parliamentary chief for the Peronist coalition Union for the Homeland. …
   20. Political scientist Lara Goyburu said the decision “leaps past all limits, decreeing many issues that need political agreements from Congress and the provinces.”
   21. The decree can be overturned if it is rejected by both houses of Congress … . Otherwise, it comes into force on 29 December. …
   22. MIKE: I think it’s important to say at the outset that Argentina is in a serious economic and trade crisis that has been years — even decades — in the making. Inflation of 140% annually is economically and socially unsustainable. And yet, there’s a saying: “People can’t eat ‘eventually’. They have to eat every day.” Argentina has been on an unsustainable economic path that needs significant correction and some mix of policies that will accomplish that. So when confronted by a runoff result leaving a choice between the left-leaning Peronists who were blamed for Argentina’s current economic mess, and Milei’s self-proclaimed “anarcho-capitalism” on the far right, but no moderate alternatives remaining after the runoff, Milei won almost 56% of the presidential vote.
   23. MIKE: But that presidential election result is not the whole story. As the article points out by implication, Milei’s election had no “coattails”.
   24. MIKE: As the story points out, “Milei’s Libertad Avanza party… has only 40 of the 257 seats in the lower house, and seven of 72 in the Senate.”
   25. MIKE: This is no doubt why he’s making these drastic economic and legal changes by decree. Importantly, as pointed out in the story, “The decree can be overturned if it is rejected by both houses of Congress …. Otherwise, it comes into force on 29 December.” So, the Argentine people can only hold their breath and perhaps hope that these Presidential decrees are either nullified by the Argentine Congress, or perhaps modified to be less immediately extreme.
   26. REFERENCE: Dollarizing the economy: What does it mean and which countries have implemented Javier Milei’s proposal?; Argentina’s president-elect is proposing to use the US dollar as the official currency in order to curb inflation. By Omar Barrientos Nieto | ELPAIS.COM | Nov 24, 2023 – 07:16 EST
8. While not directly related to COP28, I thought that this story from SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN was still relevant and timely from December 4^th: Don’t Fall for Big Oil’s Carbon Capture Deceptions; Carbon capture technology is a PR fig leaf designed to help Big Oil delay the phaseout of fossil fuels. By Jonathan Foley | SCIENTIFICAMERICAN.COM | December 4, 2023. (Jonathan Foley is the executive director of Project Drawdown, a nonprofit organization focused on climate solutions. His writing has been featured on the TED stage and in National Geographic, Science, Nature and numerous other publications. These views are his own.)
   1. It’s that time of year again. The political and media circus of the United Nation’s big climate change meeting COP28 is about to begin… in Dubai. …
   2. In the inevitable crescendo of hype and greenwashing that’s coming our way, we’ll doubtless hear a lot about industrial carbon capture technologies that attempt to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. The COP 28 host country (the United Arab Emirates), the world’s largest oil companies and even programs in the U.S. Department of Energy are working hard to push this stuff.
   3. … It’s mostly a distraction from what we really need to do right now: phase out fossil fuels and deploy more effective climate solutions.
   4. Industrial carbon capture technologies come in many flavors, but the most prominent are carbon capture and storage (CCS), which removes carbon dioxide from highly concentrated point sources like power plants, and direct air capture (DAC), which attempts to remove CO2 from open air, where concentrations are much lower.
   5. At first blush, this sounds great. But, as I’ve written previously, counting on these technologies today is a bad idea. First, industrial carbon capture projects are far too small to matter. Even after decades of investment, research and development, today’s largest carbon capture projects only remove a few seconds’ worth of our yearly greenhouse gas emissions. And even the planned Regional Direct Air Capture Hubs the Department of Energy is supporting will only be able to capture one million metric tonnes of CO2 every year; last year, the world emitted5 billion.
   6. Second, they are far too expensive, costing thousands of dollars for every ton of CO2 removed. Other climate solutions, including improving energy efficiency, deploying renewable energy sources and addressing emissions in agriculture and industrial sectors, are far more cost-effective. Industrial carbon removal costs at least $1,000 per tonne removed; many other climate solutions either have costs lower than $10 per ton, and some have negative costs, saving money immediately.
   7. Third, these industrial carbon removal techniques also consume excessive amounts of energy, which present enormous challenges to scalability. If we power carbon capture projects with CO2-spewing fossil fuels, the projects lose much of their proposed climate benefit. Moreover, powering them with renewable or nuclear energy sources would provide far less climate benefit than using that energy to directly displace fossil fuels.
   8. In addition, CO2 captured by industrial carbon capture projects is often used to drive more oil and gas back out—for something known as enhanced oil recovery, which uses fluids like carbon dioxide to push oil and gas out of rock formations—helping fossil fuel companies continue working.
   9. Industrial carbon capture also does nothing to reduce the health damage caused by fossil fuels. Most notably, sucking CO2 out of the air fails to relieve the tremendous air pollution effects of burning fossil fuels, which cause 8–9 million people to die prematurely each year.
   10. More fundamentally, the biggest problem with industrial carbon capture schemes is that they are largely a ploy by Big Oil to delay action to phase out fossil fuels. …
   11. It’s troubling how many billions of tax dollars have already been wasted on carbon capture boondoggles and Big Oil giveaways. The U.S. Department of Energy has already poured tens of billions into poorly conceived and managed “clean coal” and CCS projects. They have almost entirely failed, earning the condemnation of the Government Accountability Office. And, unbelievably, the U.S. 45Q tax credit for carbon capture projects pays $60 a tonne for carbon used in enhanced oil recovery—which delays the retirement of the fossil fuel industry.
   12. Carbon removal technology could have a role in the fight against climate change, but we would have to use it in a much more targeted way, Hard-to-control industrial sources like cement, steel and fertilizers might be good candidates for specialized CCS projects that can theoretically remove some of these concentrated emissions. This of course is only if researchers, investors and project managers can tackle the technology’s technical and financial limitations. Many scientists who are currently critical of carbon capture would support such use. …
   13. Bottom line, … we need to see fundamental shifts in how carbon capture technology is governed, funded and used in the world. We should forbid any connections between taxpayer-supported carbon capture projects and fossil fuel companies. In the U.S., we should immediately suspend 45Q tax breaks for enhanced oil recovery, which simply subsidize Big Oil’s bottom line and increase emissions at taxpayers’ expense. All Department of Energy funding for carbon capture projects that benefit fossil fuel interests should also be immediately redirected to more effective climate solutions. And the Government Accountability Office and Congress should continue to investigate how billions of taxpayer dollars ended up subsidizing Big Oil greenwashing — and systems that undermine effective climate action — in the first place. In the end, the global community must never again fall for schemes like this that cost taxpayers billions and remove minimal carbon at enormous cost, while handing Big Oil a PR bonanza.
   14. ANDREW: Hear, hear.
   15. MIKE: Yeah, I agree that these are all good points and good questions.
9. In related story from REUTERS on December 5^th: Explainer: What new OPEC+ oil output cuts are in place after Thursday deal; By Alex Lawler | REUTERS.COM | December 5, 2023 @ 9:40 AM CST / Updated 19 days ago
   2. OPEC+ oil producers on Thursday agreed to voluntary output cuts totalling about 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) for the first quarter of 2024 led by Saudi Arabia rolling over its current voluntary cut.
   3. The new curbs from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, come on top of earlier reductions announced in various steps since late 2022 and bring the total pledged cuts to 5.86 million bpd, equal to about 5.7% of daily world demand, according to Reuters calculations.
   4. Included in this figure is an extension of existing Saudi and Russian voluntary cuts of 1.3 million bpd, meaning the new element of the cut is about 900,000 bpd. The new cuts come on top of earlier curbs announced in various steps since late 2022.
   5. OPEC+ negotiations over production quotas have often been difficult in the past, most recently at their June meeting.
   6. The total cuts in place before Thursday were about 5 million bpd. OPEC+ when it last met in June had extended curbs of 3.66 mbpd until the end of 2024.
   7. In addition, Saudi Arabia since July has been making a 1 million-bpd voluntary reduction in output lasting until the end of December 2023. A Russian cut in oil exports of 300,000 bpd also lasts until the end of 2023.
   8. HOW DOES THE NEW DEAL AFFECT OUTPUT TARGETS? — The latest round of cuts was announced by the individual countries on Thursday at the end of their online meeting.
   9. OPEC+ issued a statement summarising the voluntary cuts as amounting to 2 million bpd and said they come on top of earlier [cuts of 3.66 mbpd] announced in April 2023. … [That means planned cuts totaling almost 5.9 mbpd.]
   10. MIKE: To put these cuts in context, The output target by the end of the first quarter of 2024 is 38.8 mbpd.
   11. MIKE: OPEC’s target price is probably in the realm of $100/barrel. I don’t know enough to say what the odds are of hitting that price, but I think that the war in Ukraine and its effect on energy supplies and flow have done more to accelerate the world’s shift to renewables and downward pressure on oil prices than any inter-governmental treaties. For better or worse, wars always speed up technological advances in various realms. Right now, one of those realms is energy security. To the extent that this aligns with reducing greenhouse emissions, all the better.

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1. Make sure you are registered to vote! VoteTexas.GOV – Texas Voter Information
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