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TOPICS: HCAD Runoff Elections; Fort Bend County to construct African-American Memorial in historic Kendleton; Houston City Council finalizes historic $650 million firefighter agreement; Houston doctor accused of taking Texas Children’s Hospital patient information on transgender care; Texas officials compromised ballot secrecy as they increased election transparency; Housing affordability gap widens for all ethnic groups in Houston; The Fed is ‘playing with fire’ by not cutting rates, says creator of ‘Sahm Rule’ recession indicator; These cities are now so expensive they’re considered ‘impossibly unaffordable’; This city just made it illegal to advertise SUVs. Here’s why.; Company backed by Bill Gates has begun construction of an revolutionary, ‘affordable’ nuclear power station — TerraPower’s Natrium reactor uses sodium which could be key to quenching AI’s energy thirst; Congress Debates Expanded Draft Amid Military Recruitment Challenges; Cuba-Russian relations come full circle — why US policy must reflect this reality;

Welcome to Thinkwing Radio with Mike Honig where we discuss local, state, national, and international stories. 

Thinkwing Radio with Mike Honig (@ThinkwingRadio) is now on Wednesdays at 11AM (CT) or Thursdays at 6PM on KPFT 90.1 FM-HD2, Houston’s Community Media. You can also hear the show:

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Except for timely election info, the extensive list of voting resources will now be at the end.

1. June 15^th was election day for a runoff for HCAD candidates. The two Republican candidates won with a voter turnout of about 1.8%. There’s really no way to overstate how pathetic that is.
   1. REFERENCE: Scott and McCrutcheon win HCAD runoffs; Posted on June 16, 2024 by Charles Kuffner
2. Fort Bend County to construct African-American Memorial in historic Kendleton; By Aubrey Vogel | COMMUNITYIMPACT.COM | 4:47 PM Jun 17, 2024 CDT /
   Updated 4:47 PM Jun 17, 2024 CDT. TAGS: Fort Bend County (TX), African American Memorial, Sugar Land 95.
   1. Fort Bend County officials are set to break ground this summer on an African American Memorial to pay homage to less-known history.
   2. The Fort Bend County African American Memorial, located at Bates Allen Park in Kendleton, aims to acknowledge past injustices, restore human dignity and celebrate African Americans’ contributions to the county, according to project documents from Fort Bend County Precinct 4.
   3. “The contributions of African Americans in this area was just a bedrock and a foundation, but telling these stories and telling this history is important to how we preserve the telling of the stories of many other people,” Precinct 4 Commissioner Dexter McCoy
   4. The future memorial is inspired by the 2018 discovery of remains of 95 people on a Fort Bend ISD construction site who were believed to have been part of Texas’ convict labor and leasing program. These individuals, dubbed the Sugar Land 95, are remembered through a memorial and educational component at the site—now the James Reese Career and Technical Education Center.
   5. The memorial project will include two axes: one pointing toward Africa and the other toward Sugar Land, where the Sugar Land 95 were found, McCoy said. Phase 1 will also feature a: Juneteenth Freedom Plaza; Three-story imposing monument, dedicated to the African American giants in history; Fragmented walkway; [and a] Convict labor and leasing memorial, which will host 95 trees representing the Sugar Land 95. …
   6. Funding for the more than $10 million project was approved by voters in the 2020 and 2023 Fort Bend County parks bonds, McCoy said. In addition to the memorial, the funds will also support the extension of utilities.
   7. The memorial will be constructed in Kendleton, a small town west of Rosenberg that is one of the original freedmen’s towns in the area founded by six families of emancipated slaves, McCoy said. Bates Allen Park is home to two historical freedmen burial sites and is the final resting place of various African American leaders, including Benjamin Franklin Williams, the first Black Texas state representative.
   8. “When you go out there to that site, it is not reflective of the stature of the people and their consequence to our community and our county,” McCoy said. “So, what we’re doing is restoring dignity to them, honoring them and celebrating the contributions that they and many other African Americans in Fort Bend County have had for our region and our state.”
   9. Growing up in Fort Bend County, McCoy said he did not know of the rich African American history in the area and didn’t learn it until much later, like many others in the area.
   10. “As a young Black kid, I never knew much of this history of my people in my own backyard,” he said. “I did not know about the contributions made by folks who look like me. … When I think that we don’t tell these stories, these rich stories about our history, what does that mean for that child, like myself, in this community and about how I view myself in relation to the community, and how proud I feel about being a part of this community?”
   11. Groundbreaking of Phase 1 was set to take place on June 19 but has since been postponed due to weather; … . Phase 1 of the African American Memorial is expected to be open to the public in late 2025, McCoy said.
   12. The memorial will also feature future phases, which will include a lynching reflection pond. Beyond the memorial, the park will also feature later phases, including the addition of the a learning center.
   13. MIKE: The Unites States often characterizes itself as a vibrant multiethnic, multiracial society, but it’s not until representatives of the various ethnicities and races in the US begin to be represented in positions of authority that we see what that means in practice.
   14. MIKE: It’s not until then, by their efforts and the voters they represent, that we begin to fill in the important gaps in the American history that we are taught and that we think we know.
   15. MIKE: I think that this is memorial is a good thing.
3. Houston City Council finalizes historic $650 million firefighter agreement; By Cassandra Jenkins | COMMUNITYIMPACT.COM | 4:53 PM Jun 18, 2024 CDT
   Updated 4:53 PM Jun 18, 2024 CDT. TAGS: Houston City Council, Houston Professional Firefighters Association (HPFA), Mayor John Whitmire,
   1. Houston City Council completed the last remaining step of an eight-year-long legal battle between the city of Houston and the Houston Professional Fire Firefighters Association.
   2. What happened — Council members voted unanimously June 17 to approve the $650 million collective bargaining agreement that has been under debate since the details of the settlement were released to the public in March.
   3. Council’s approval of the agreement was the last step in finalizing the deal after the bond issuance was already approved June 12, and the agreement was certified by the city controller’s office June 17 after a two-week hold.
   4. The $650 million settlement includes funding the back pay owed to firefighters who worked without a contract for eight years as well as the new contract between the city and the union that includes items such as pay raises, incentive pay and training.
   5. The firefighters’ new contract will remain in effect until fiscal year 2028-29.
   6. With interest and debt service, city officials said the total cost of the settlement is around $1.5 billion, which is expected [to] take approximately 25-30 years to pay off.
   7. While no new revenue sources have been identified to pay off the bond in the coming years, Mayor John Whitmire said he has strong ideas on where the city is going to find the funding for the agreement.
   8. Some options under discussion by council members and Whitmire’s administration include a monthly garbage collection fee and possibly lifting the voter-approved property tax revenue cap.
   9. “I understand that it’s expensive,” Whitmire said. “It was always going to be expensive, … but we’ve got to get out of the courthouse, and we’ve got to get back to running the fire department because it focuses on public safety. Obviously, it will be challenging to pay for it. No one disputes that, but we can’t afford not to, and it is a reasonable settlement.”
   10. Council also approved the FY 2024-25 budget June 12, which included using nearly $200 million of the city’s historic $420 million savings account to help pay down the cost of the contract. …
   11. MIKE: The finalization of this agreement has been a long time coming. If terms had been agreed upon years ago, the final taxpayer bill for this contract wouldn’t be nearly so large and expensive. It’s a good lesson that is rarely learned by government officials that procrastination of an inevitable result just makes that result much more costly.
   12. MIKE: It concerns me that there are still no firm ideas from the Whitmire administration as to how this bond will be paid for. I think that this is a useful time to reiterate my idea for progressive property taxation, with rates pegged to inflation.
   13. MIKE: I think that the target should be houses assessed at over $1 million. Assessments over that amount should be charged a surtax on any value above that number, perhaps with small incremental escalations at intervals increasing by possibly every $100 thousand dollars. I offer my opinion that reasonable surtaxes can probably be afforded by folks owning property at that assessment level.
   14. MIKE: Would that be legal under the highly restrictive laws and amendments Republicans have added over the decades to the Texas State Constitution? I have no idea. Now might be a good time to find out.
   15. MIKE: There is a lengthier and more detailed article in the Houston Chronicle about the agreement that the city has now officially accepted that you can access at the link I’m providing in this blog post.
   16. REFERENCE: Houston City Council approves landmark settlement to resolve yearslong dispute with firefighters — By Yilun Cheng, Dylan McGuinness, Staff writers | HOUSTONCHRONICLE.COM | June 18, 2024
4. Houston doctor accused of taking Texas Children’s Hospital patient information on transgender care; “He’s been out there very publicly for months, maintaining his innocence that he did nothing wrong,” the doctor’s attorney said. ByPooja Lodhia | ABC13.COM | Tuesday, June 18, 2024 @ 5:10PM. TAGS: Houston, Texas Childrens Hospital, Medical Records, Doctors, Texas Medical Center, HIPAA,
   1. He calls himself a whistleblower, but federal prosecutors claim he lied to gain access to children’s private health information illegally.
   2. Eithan Haim has pleaded not guilty to four federal charges alleging he got into the Texas Children’s Hospital electronic system in order to cause malicious harm.
   3. Federal prosecutors describe a dangerous scheme where Haim allegedly lied about needing private patient information, saying he would be treating these patients in the future.
   4. Then, once he got it, they claimed he sent that protected information to a conservative media activist.
   5. Haim is still working as a surgeon at a rural hospital just outside of Dallas, according to his attorney, Ryan Patrick.
   6. In multiple interviews and articles, Haim has defended himself, claiming he released information about the transgender care program at Texas Children’s Hospital to prove the hospital was secretly providing gender-affirming care.
   7. Transgender care was legal at the time, but hospital staff had said they weren’t doing it. …
   8. “Because of his position as a doctor, he is a mandatory reporter,” [said Attorney Patrick]. “He’s been out there very publicly for months, maintaining his innocence that he did nothing wrong.”
   9. His hospital login credentials expired in 2021, but two years later, he allegedly emailed the hospital and said he urgently needed access.
   10. From there, prosecutors say he accessed the system remotely, making it more difficult to track. He then shared information with a media activist, who published the names of physicians, specific treatments, and the ages of children receiving treatments.
   11. Prosecutors say Haim grossly mischaracterized the hospital’s procedures.
   12. Since then, transgender care has been banned for children in the state of Texas, though major medical organizations and U.S. federal health organizations like the CDC do support it.
   13. “Dr. Haim believes he was a whistleblower, and he was bringing forth information where Texas Children’s was not being truthful, in his opinion,” Patrick said. …
   14. Haim does not have a criminal history. If convicted, he faces up to 10 years in federal prison and a maximum fine of $250,000.
   15. Eyewitness News has reached out to Texas Children’s Hospital multiple times for comment but has not received a response.
   16. MIKE: First, I want to say that in my non-legal opinion, Dr. Haim is a horrible human being who puts his own “opinion” above respect for human rights and privacy, and above the law. HIPAA, the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act of 1996, is supposed to protect the privacy — we might even call it the sanctity — of an individual’s medical history and discussions with doctors, clinics, and hospitals, among others.
   17. MIKE: In my scanning of the privacy summary, I don’t see an exception for Haim’s actions, but I’m no lawyer. The court will ultimately decide whether his actions violated federal law and how serious a “first-offender conviction” will be for the purposes of sentencing, assuming it comes to that.
   18. MIKE: Haim characterizes himself as a “Whistleblower”. As a doctor, I believe he violated his ethical responsibilities, even if not his legal obligations, whether these children were his patients or not. (SPOILER ALERT: They weren’t.)
   19. MIKE: Based on this very basic reporting, I hope he is convicted, and I hope that his standing as a “first-time offender” doesn’t protect him from a maximum sentence in order to send a message to other so-called medical activists that will dissuade them from considering other similar violations of patients’ privacy in the future.
   20. MIKE: At the bottom of this blog post, I’ve included links to the HIPAA privacy summary from HHS as well as a link to the main HIPAA page.
   21. REFERENCE: Summary of the HIPAA Privacy Rule — HHS.GOV
   22. REFERENCE: HIPAA Home – HHS.gov
5. Texas Supreme Court halts Uplift Harris guaranteed income payments; By Melissa Enaje | COMMUNITYIMPACT.COM | 4:38 PM Jun 17, 2024 CDT / Updated 5:59 PM Jun 17, 2024 CDT. TAGS: Harris County, Supreme Court of Texas, Uplift Harris, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee,
   1. Harris County officials were ordered by the Supreme Court of Texas on June 14 to prohibit payments for Uplift Harris, the county’s first guaranteed income program.
   2. Breaking it down — With the court’s order, more than 1,900 qualified families living below 200% of the poverty line will not be given $500 per month for 18 consecutive months as part of the program, pending the outcome of the state’s lawsuit against Harris County challenging the program. According to the Uplift Harris website, no payments have been made since the original distribution date in late April.
   3. How we got here — Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton filed the original lawsuit on April 9 seeking a temporary restraining order against Harris County officials administering the program, citing it as [violating the Texas Constitution] in a 16-page lawsuit. While a state district judge ruled against Paxton’s lawsuit on April 18, Paxton filed an emergency motion with the Supreme Court of Texas on April 23. Hours after Paxton’s office released a statement, the Supreme Court of Texas issued its administrative stay on the same day.
   4. Paxton said in a June 14 news release the guaranteed income program is a scheme. …
   5. The state’s appeal of the denial of a temporary injunction remains pending in the court of appeals, which will proceed “expeditiously to a decision,” according to the court document. However, toward the end of the 12-page court opinion, it states how “it remains possible [Harris] County will ultimately succeed on the merits.”
   6. “Whether Harris County’s proposal would actually violate the Texas Constitution remains an open question at this early stage of the litigation,” the document states.
   7. Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee said in a news release he is extremely disappointed in the Texas court’s decision and will continue to litigate against efforts to block Uplift Harris.
   8. “Uplift Harris is a poverty alleviation program modeled on other guaranteed income programs across the country. Local governments exist in part to help the less fortunate among us, and the Supreme Court’s ruling effectively ends a program that has proven to be highly successful at allowing lower-income folks to lift themselves out of poverty,” Menefee said.
   9. MIKE: This is yet another example of “freedom-spouting” Republicans who claim to be champions of local governance doing their utmost to interfere in the freedom of local governance when they have the power to do so.
   10. MIKE: I don’t know if the Uplift Harris experiment will work or not or if, after analysis of its results, it will prove to be effective enough to make it worth continuing.
   11. MIKE: I do think that if local and state governments are supposed to be the laboratories of policy in this country’s federal system, then the State of Texas ought to keep it anti-freedom, anti-local governance nose out of Harris County’s and Houston’s affairs.
6. This next article is from May 24^th, but I just ran across it this weekend, so maybe it’s new to you, too — Texas officials compromised ballot secrecy as they increased election transparency; By Natalia Contreras, Votebeat and The Texas Tribune, and Karen Brooks Harper and William Melhado | The Texas Tribune | ORG | May 29, 2024 @ 5 AM Central. TAGS: Texas, Voting, Secret Ballot,
   1. Texas’ efforts to make elections more transparent allows the public — in limited instances — to pierce the anonymity of the ballot and find out how people voted, undermining the secrecy essential to free elections.
   2. The choices voters make in the private voting booth can later be identified in some cases using public, legally available records, a review by Votebeat and The Texas Tribune found.
   3. Since 2020, requests for such records have skyrocketed, fueled by unsubstantiated concerns about widespread voter fraud, and Texas lawmakers have supported changes to make election records easier to access soon after elections.
   4. County elections administrators, trying to fulfill activists’ demands for transparency, have also made information public that can make it easier to determine how specific people voted.
   5. An effort to link a voter to specific ballot choices is more likely to succeed in circumstances involving less populous counties, small precincts, and low-turnout elections.
   6. “What bothers me is that people cannot vote in secret in the United States,” said Williamson County District Attorney Shawn Dick about the potential lapses in ballot secrecy. “If people’s ballots don’t remain anonymous, that’s a huge affront to our system of government and our system of elections.”
   7. Several election officials said there have been concerns and ongoing discussions about the possibility of people exploiting public records and data to detect or narrow down how individuals voted, particularly in smaller counties.
   8. And the Texas Secretary of State’s office has been aware that publicly available information could be used to link a particular ballot to the voter who cast it, according to sources who spoke to Votebeat and the Tribune on the condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorized to speak publicly on the issue. Nonetheless, state lawmakers have spent the last several years making it easier to mine voter and ballot data.
   9. Votebeat and the Tribune were able to verify and replicate a series of steps to identify a specific person’s ballot choices using public records. But to protect the secrecy of the ballot, the two news outlets are not detailing the precise information needed or the process used to match ballot images with individual voters.
   10. Election administration experts and voter advocates say Texas lawmakers need to find a better balance between transparency and voters’ ballot privacy — and clarify the roles county elections administrators and the Secretary of State’s office play in getting there. …
   11. Earlier this month, the independent news site Current Revolt published what it said was the image of the ballot that former Republican Party of Texas Chair Matt Rinaldi cast in the March 5 GOP primary, provided by a source it did not name.
   12. The site did not explain in detail how its source was able to find the ballot and connect it to Rinaldi. …
   13. [I]n certain circumstances, finding someone’s ballot is possible by identifying and cross-referencing a series of variables that are public. …
   14. … In a public statement last week, [the office of the state’s chief elections officer, Secretary of State Jane Nelson,] said county elections administrators need to balance ballot secrecy with election transparency — but the statement provided them no guidance on how to do that.
   15. On Tuesday, after Votebeat and the Tribune told her office about vulnerabilities with ballot secrecy, Nelson said in an emailed statement that she was advising county elections administrators that “they have a duty to redact personally identifiable information” but did not detail what that includes or what information may be redacted.
   16. “No one should have their ballot privacy compromised,” Nelson said.
   17. Texas stands out among other states for its expansive approach to making election records public, an effort to provide transparency in a state where unsupported theories about election fraud are widespread. …
   18. Conservative activists searching for proof of voter fraud routinely began requesting original voted ballots and cast-vote records in almost every Texas county.
   19. At the time, voted ballots, by law, had to be kept secure and were not available for 22 months after an election. But in August 2022, Paxton — who had tried unsuccessfully to overturn the 2020 presidential election results in four battleground states outside his jurisdiction — released a nonbinding legal opinion advising county officials to release voted ballots as soon as they are counted, while redacting any information that could identify the voter.
   20. After at least three counties challenged Paxton’s advice in court, the Texas Legislature rewrote the law.
   21. During the 2023 legislative session, lawmakers overwhelmingly passed House Bill 5180, allowing public access to ballot images, cast-vote records, and the original voted ballot just 61 days after election day. …
   22. [O]pponents of the legislation noted that election departments in Texas and across the country had seen an increase since the 2020 presidential election in records requests seeking more technical information about an election.
   23. Stephanie Swanson, the issue chair of voting rights for the League of Women Voters of Texas, warned that the legislation would result in an even greater flood of public records requests, which could be used as a means of voter intimidation. …
   24. [T]he Texas Association of Election Administrators as well as county and district clerks sent a letter to the Texas Senate State Affairs Committee, which deals with voting issues, suggesting that there could be changes to what’s considered “identifiable” information. …
   25. A ballot [Williamson County DA Shawn Dick] previously cast in a Texas election was apparently included as evidence in an unrelated lawsuit filed earlier this year, also accusing Texas of ballot security vulnerabilities.
   26. That lawsuit alleges that Nelson and election officials from three Central Texas counties violated voters’ equal protection rights by allowing the public to track down a voter’s ballot through a unique identification number. …
   27. [Plaintiff in the lawsuit Laura Pressley] has also advocated for counties to stop using electronic voting equipment and has demanded the use of sequentially numbered, preprinted ballots, which experts say could further threaten ballot privacy.
   28. If businesses or politicians are able to track down how individuals voted, Dick said, it would change the way those entities target voters for profit and campaign purposes — and could open the door to voter intimidation.
   29. Dick said the issue needs to be resolved immediately but he doesn’t believe the answer is to shut down public access to ballot records and voting information.
   30. Other states, too, have grappled with whether and when to make cast vote records and ballot images public. …
   31. In Texas, some county elections administrators say the Legislature needs to craft a law that settles what information must be made public so elections administration is transparent — as well as what can be withheld, so ballot secrecy is protected. Without that, they say, vulnerabilities will persist. …
   32. MIKE: There is somewhat more specificity to his story that I excluded for time.
   33. MIKE: So Texas state legislators and officials are so concerned about the practically non-existent problem of illegal voting that they’ve endangered the rights and privacy of millions of legal As I understand the term, this is a form of cognitive dissonance, defined as justification or rationalization of behavior.
   34. MIKE: So on the one hand, Texas officials seem obsessed with the danger they allege from what they claim to believe is rampant illegal voting while simultaneously endangering the sanctity of the secret ballot.
   35. MIKE: Of course, what all this is really about is suppressing participation by voters they don’t like.
   36. MIKE: As I’ve begun saying more and more often lately, what Texas really needs is separation of Republicans and State. The political Right has been in power for over two decades, and that’s been long enough to do real damage to the rights and freedoms of Texans. Texas needs a change, but that requires all voters to turn out consistently.
7. Housing affordability gap widens for all ethnic groups in Houston; By Carson Weaver | COMMUNITYIMPACT.COM | 11:24 AM Jun 18, 2024 CDT / Updated 11:24 AM Jun 18, 2024 CDT. TAGS: Houston Association of Realtors (HAR), Median-Priced Home, Home Affordability,
   1. Housing affordability declined for all ethnic groups in the Houston area, according to a June 17 report from the Houston Association of Realtors.
   2. The report revealed 40% of all households earned the minimum income of $105,200 to buy a median-priced home of $336,000 in 2023. In 2022, 44% of households earned the minimum income needed to buy a median-priced home.
   3. The breakdown — According to the report: 25% of Hispanic/Latino households earned enough income for a median-priced home in 2023, compared to 28% in 2022; 26% of Black households earned enough income for a median-priced home in 2023, compared to 34% in 2022; [and] 51% of white and Asian households earned enough income for a median-priced home in 2023, compared to 58% in 2022. …
   4. [MIKE: There are a couple of affordability charts included with the article that you can view by clicking on the article link I provided at the top of this blog post. Continuing …]
   5. HAR Chair Thomas Mouton said high interest rates have put the “American dream of homeownership” further out of reach for groups that have historically struggled to buy a home.
   6. “This underscores the need for equitable solutions to ensure that every family has access to affordable housing, regardless of race or ethnicity,” Mouton said via the report.
   7. MIKE: That leads us to the next story …
8. The Fed is ‘playing with fire’ by not cutting rates, says creator of ‘Sahm Rule’ recession indicator; By Jeff Cox (@jeff.cox.7528@JeffCoxCNBCcom) | CNBC.COM | Published Tue, Jun 18 20243:05 PM EDT / Updated Moments Ago. TAGS: Economist Claudia Sahm, Federal Reserve, “Sahm Rule”, Labor Market, Recession, Inflation,
   1. The Federal Reserve is risking tipping the economy into contraction by not cutting interest rates now, according to the author of a time-tested rule for when recessions happen.
   2. Economist Claudia Sahm has shown that when the unemployment rate’s three-month average is half a percentage point higher than its 12-month low, the economy is in recession.
   3. As the jobless level has ticked up in recent months, the “Sahm Rule” has generated increasing talk on Wall Street that what has been a strong labor market is showing cracks and pointing to potential trouble ahead. That in turn has generated speculation over when the Fed finally will start reducing interest rates.
   4. Sahm, chief economist at New Century Advisors, said the central bank is taking a big risk by not moving now with gradual cuts: By not taking action, the Fed risks the Sahm Rule kicking in and, with it, a recession that potentially could force policymakers to take more drastic action.
   5. “My baseline is not recession,” Sahm said. “But it’s a real risk, and I do not understand why the Fed is pushing that risk. I’m not sure what they’re waiting for.”
   6. “The worst possible outcome at this point is for the Fed to cause an unnecessary recession,” she added. …
   7. [MIKE: The article then has some technical reasons supporting the hypothesis. Continuing …]
   8. The rule has applied for every recession dating back to at least 1948 and thus works as an effective warning sign when the value starts to increase.
   9. Even with the rising jobless level, Fed officials have expressed little concern about the labor market. Following its meeting last week, the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee labeled the jobs market as “strong,” and Chair Jerome Powell at his press conference said conditions “have returned to about where they stood on the eve of the pandemic — relatively tight but not overheated.”
   10. In fact, officials sharply lowered their individual forecasts for rate cuts this year, going from three expected reductions at the March meeting to one this time around.
   11. The move surprised markets, which still are pricing in two cuts this year, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch measure of fed funds futures market contracts.
   12. “The bad outcomes here could be pretty bad,” Sahm said. “From a risk management perspective, I have a hard time understanding the Fed’s unwillingness to cut and their just ceaseless tough talk on inflation.”
   13. Sahm said Powell and his colleagues “are playing with fire” and should be paying attention to the rate of change in the labor market as a potential harbinger of danger ahead. Waiting for a “deterioration” in job gains, as Powell spoke of last week, is dangerous, she added. …
   14. The Fed, though, finds itself at a bit of a crossroads.
   15. Tracking a recession where the unemployment rate starts this low requires a trip all the way back to the latter part of 1969 into 1970.
   16. [MIKE: On a personal note, I entered the New York City job market in spring 1971. As late as the fall of 1970, the Section 9 job ads in the NY Times was split into two sections totaling about 70 pages. By the spring of 1971, it was down to one section of about 10 pages. So from my experience, that’s how fast things can deteriorate. Continuing on with the story …]
   17. [T]he Fed rarely has cut rates with unemployment at this level. Central bankers in recent days, including on several occasions Tuesday, have said they see inflation moving in the right direction but don’t feel confident enough to start cutting yet.
   18. By the Fed’s preferred barometer, inflation ran at 2.7% in April, or 2.8% when excluding food [and] energy prices for the core reading that policymakers especially zero in on. The Fed targets inflation at 2%.
   19. “Inflation has come down a lot. It’s not where you want it to be, but it is pointed in the right direction. Unemployment is pointed in the wrong direction,” Sahm said. “Balancing these two out, you get closer and closer to the danger zone on the labor market and further away from it on the inflation side. It’s pretty obvious what the Fed should do.”
   20. MIKE: This is a story that will bear watching. As a lay person, my understanding of inflation is defined simply as too much money chasing too few goods. The Fed and other central banks try to solve this inflation problem by curbing demand, which usually translates ultimately into people losing jobs and buying power.
   21. MIKE: In my experience, in times of inflation, wages are always playing catching-up with inflation, but never quite keeping up and certainly not staying ahead. That’s what makes inflation bad for workers individually, and national economies and politics generally.
   22. MIKE: I’ve come to feel that a better way to fight inflation is to try to make supply catch up with demand rather than suppressing demand to meet supply.
   23. MIKE: In a world market, this idea has limited applicability because raw materials and product components are often imported from overseas where US policy has little effect. But in the case of domestic product inflation, increasing supply by stimulating capacity may have a role in inflation-reduction strategy.
   24. MIKE: It may be a policy idea worth exploring.
9. These cities are now so expensive they’re considered ‘impossibly unaffordable’; By Hilary Whiteman, CNN | CNN.COM | Updated 10:08 AM EDT, Fri June 14, 2024
   1. [The cities listed as “Unaffordable” starting from least affordable are Hong Kong, Sydney, Vancouver, San Jose, Los Angeles, Honolulu, Melbourne, San Francisco tied with Adelaide, San Diego, and Toronto.
   2. The only reason I want to touch on this story is because of these comments at the end, to wit …]
   3. In an opinion piece for Canada’s Financial Post, Wendell Cox, a senior fellow at the Frontier Centre for Public Policy, advocated for Canada, in particular, to follow New Zealand’s lead and free up more land for immediate development.
   4. Both Vancouver and Toronto made the list of the cities that are “impossibly unaffordable.”
   5. Cox points to a policy, “Going for Housing Growth,” introduced by New Zealand’s coalition government that requires local authorities to immediately zone for 30 years of housing growth.
   6. “Toronto and Vancouver show that the cost of taming expansion is unacceptably high: inflated house prices, higher rents and, for increasing numbers of people, poverty,” Cox wrote.
   7. For those who can’t wait for a change in policy or for demand to fall, the report also identifies the most affordable cities of the 94 surveyed worldwide.
   8. They are Pittsburgh, Rochester and St Louis in the US; Edmonton and Calgary in Canada; Blackpool, Lancashire and Glasgow in the United Kingdom; and Perth and Brisbane in Australia.
   9. [MIKE: I note that Houston is on neither list. Is that good news or bad news. Hmmmm. Anyway, to continue …
   10. The report was compiled by researchers from the Center for Demographics and Policy at Chapman University in California and the Frontier Centre for Public Policy, an independent public policy think tank in Canada.
   11. MIKE: So I might come to a couple of different conclusions from this story.
   12. MIKE: First, Long-term municipal and county planning are essential for forestalling unaffordable housing. Second, zoning and master planning are prerequisites for this kind of decision-making. Third, if the conclusions in the article (which doesn’t cite the actual report it seems to rely upon) are valid, high-density so-called “walkable cities” are inherently antagonistic to the idea of universally affordable housing.
   13. MIKE: A quote from the Wendell Cox story says, “Urban planners continue to complain about urban expansion, but that is how organic urban growth occurs. Toronto and Vancouver show that the cost of taming expansion is unacceptably high: inflated house prices, higher rents and, for increasing numbers of people, poverty.”
   14. MIKE: If all the above is to be believed, it’s possible that affordable housing and high-density cities are mutually exclusive. That leads us to a policy conundrum.
   15. MIKE: High-density cities allow for more efficient mass transit and the need for fewer cars. This reduces carbon emissions and can lead to more efficient development of urban infrastructure while also leading to more expensive and smaller housing and greater human congestion, both of which have psychological, emotional, social, and financial costs.
   16. MIKE: On the other hand, endless expansion onto open land is not without costs to the environment such as loss of farmland, impingement on natural water resources and flood management, ecological devastation, animal extinctions, longer commutes, destruction of natural beauty, more expansive air and water pollution, etc.
   17. MIKE: Is there a happy medium to be found somewhere between these extremes? Only two things come to mind. One is a reduced emphasis on population growth as the only means of increasing national and local wealth and power. A slow contraction of population will make existing housing stocks cheaper as well as opening land in existing municipalities for redevelopment.
   18. MIKE: Another possibility is some sort of revolutionary advances in construction that will make high-density housing cheaper than is currently the case, thus allowing more people to buy homes or apartments more cheaply.
   19. MIKE: These are complex problems, and anyone offering cheap and easy solutions is lying to you. But we all need to give these issues a lot more thought instead of constantly reacting to them as crises.
   20. REFERENCE: Going for housing growth — NATIONAL.ORG.NZ (Policy document PDF is here.)
   21. REFERENCE: National’s Housing Policy Backtrack — GREATERAUCKLAND.ORG.NZ
10. In the realm of additional city planning — This city just made it illegal to advertise SUVs. Here’s why.; Edinburgh became the latest European capital city to ban ads for aviation, SUVs and more. By Shannon Osaka | WASHINGTONPOST.COM | June 15, 2024 at 7:00 a.m. EDT. TAGS: Edinburgh, ban fossil fuel advertisements, oil companies, American Petroleum Institute, Fossil Fuel Advertisements, Global Warming, Climate Change,
    1. Last month, [Edinburgh] — filled with medieval spires and shadowed by the looming castle on the hill said to have inspired the Harry Potter books — made a startlingly modern decision. Edinburgh’s city council voted to ban fossil fuel advertisements on city property, undermining the ability of not only oil companies, but also car manufacturers, airlines and cruise ships, to promote their products. The ban targeted arms manufacturers as well.
    2. Edinburgh is not alone. Amsterdam and Sydney have cracked down on advertisements for fossil fuels and high-emissions products. France also limited the promotion of coal, gas, and hydrogen made from fossil fuels. Even the United Nations Secretary General, António Guterres, has joined in, endorsing a ban on fossil fuel ads … in a speech in New York this month: “Stop the Mad Men from fueling the madness.” …
    3. A local ban on fossil fuel advertisements might seem minor at a time when carbon emissions — and temperatures — continue to march upward. But there is evidence that sweeping advertising bans, such as those targeting tobacco products in many countries, can change how consumers view and purchase certain products. The question is whether the new fossil fuel advertising bans are substantial enough to have an impact.
    4. “A lot of these bans that are being put forward are at the municipal and city level,” said Timothy Dewhirst, professor of marketing and consumer studies at the University of Guelph. “And partial bans have proven to be ineffective.”
    5. Fossil fuel producers counter that they are focused on addressing climate change. “Our industry is focused on continuing to produce affordable, reliable energy while tackling the climate challenge, and any allegations to the contrary are false,” Scott Lauermann, a spokesperson for the American Petroleum Institute, said in an email.
    6. Proponents of advertising bans seek to accomplish two goals: convince people not to use the product, and lower the reputation of an industry or company. Given how embedded fossil fuels are in modern society, some experts see the latter goal as more achievable.
    7. At the individual level, seeing fewer advertisements for gas-guzzling cars or international trips could make people less likely to opt for those products. …
    8. There’s evidence that this works. Starting in the 1970s, the constant drumbeat of new findings on the health effects of cigarettes triggered a lengthy process where nations restricted advertisements for cigarettes on TV, the radio and in public spaces. In the United States, bans began with cigarette advertising on television, and grew to covering the sponsorship of events, public transit ads and more.
    9. Today, dozens of countries — including the United States, China and the European Union — have bans, restrictions or other limitations on selling tobacco products. There is even an international treaty under the World Health Organization, adopted in 2003, that urges all countries to enact bans that target all forms of tobacco advertising. There are currently 168 signatories on the treaty; the United States has signed on the treaty but not ratified it.
    10. [MIKE: That last bit about unratified treaties is common for the United States. Aside from a historical aversion to being entangled with international agreements that become binding national law, it can be very challenging to get a 2/3 majority in the Senate to approve a treaty. As a result, most of the treaties that the US is bound to are effectively promises by the president to adhere to the agreements. The US is historically a trustworthy party to these executive treaties, but as Trump showed when he withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on May 8, 2018 that limited Iran’s nuclear enrichment activities, this is not the same as Senate ratification. As a result, the US may have a harder time getting countries to agree to treaties that are not subsequently ratified by the US Senate. Continuing …]
    11. Research shows that those bans that block TV, radio, print and in-store advertising — as well as sponsorship of events — are most effective at stopping smoking, particularly among young people who have yet to start smoking in the first place. As of 2017, full bans were implemented in less than 20 percent of countries worldwide.
    12. [B]ans that are partial, such as those that only target TV commercials, are less effective. Companies may just reallocate their advertising budgets to other media [or events]. …
    13. Fossil fuels also present a particular challenge: While an individual can choose not to smoke, it is almost impossible to disconnect from an electricity grid that runs partly on fossil fuels. Ad bans can target some discretionary spending, like cruise ships and air travel, but oil, gas and coal are deeply embedded in everyday life. …
    14. Meanwhile, some advocates and scholars emphasize that advertising allows companies to shape their public image, which can protect them from stricter regulation. … By showing ads connecting their operations to clean energy, jobs, or energy security — and sponsoring popular events — fossil fuel companies can bolster their reputations in the public sphere. …
    15. Robert Brulle, a visiting professor of environment and society at Brown University, says that advertising allows fossil fuel companies to help define the solutions to climate change — such as things like carbon capture from oil and gas plants. … In one study by Brulle and his co-authors, the researchers found that fossil fuel companies increased their advertising spending in response to congressional attention to, and media coverage of, climate change.
    16. Even if there were substantial advertising bans instituted for fossil fuels, it would be difficult to measure how such bans affect a company’s reputation. But some experts believe that it could make a difference. …
    17. For now, ad bans are still only instituted in a small number of cities and nations worldwide — in a manner not so different from how tobacco advertising bans began. “It happened incrementally,” [said David Hammond, a professor of public health at the University of Waterloo]. “It was a multi-decade process.”
    18. MIKE: There’s no question that advertising and product placement — or even “idea placement” — influences human behavior. Banning ads for fossil fuels or products that use fossil fuels may make a difference in the long term. Ad campaigns and public service announcements certainly have impacted how people see and feel about the environment, global warming, smoking, drinking alcohol while pregnant, etc., although it took decades for the effects to be felt.
    19. MIKE: Does it make a difference that people in movies and TV shows now fasten seat belts before they drive in a car, even if it’s going to be a highspeed chase? I think it probably does, at least to some undetermined extent.
    20. MIKE: This is one of those ideas that may sound silly to some folks, especially at first, but it will be interesting to measure the local effects of such bans over time to see if they make a statistically significant difference in behavior.
11. Along that same vein — Company backed by Bill Gates has begun construction of an revolutionary, ‘affordable’ nuclear power station — TerraPower’s Natrium reactor uses sodium which could be key to quenching AI’s energy thirst; It’s scheduled to open in 2030. By Wayne Williams | TECHRADAR.COM | June 17, 2024. TAGS: TerraPower, Bill Gates, Kemmerer WY, Modern Nuclear Power Plant, Sodium-Cooling Technology, Natrium Reactor,
    1. TerraPower, of which Bill Gates is chairman, has begun the construction of a modern nuclear power plant, the Natrium reactor and energy storage system, in Kemmerer, Wyoming.
    2. This project, which utilizes sodium-cooling technology instead of traditional water, aims to offer a new generation of affordable, sustainable energy. Associated Press says Gates told the assembled crowd present at the groundbreaking, which included TerraPower leaders, government officials, Natrium project partners, industry champions and community supporters, that they were “standing on what will soon be the bedrock of America’s energy future.” 
    3. Microsoft’s co-founder added, “This is a big step toward safe, abundant, zero-carbon energy, and it’s important for the future of this country that projects like this succeed.” …
    4. The location [chosen] is adjacent to PacifiCorp’s Naughton Power Plant, which is transitioning away from coal and natural gas to support a greener energy mix with nuclear power.
    5. This development comes at a pivotal moment, as the US has not pursued new commercial nuclear projects of this nature in nearly four decades. The design of TerraPower’s Natrium reactor, a sodium-cooled fast reactor coupled with a molten salt energy storage system, not only aims to meet the rising electricity demands with enhanced reliability but also addresses cost challenges associated with traditional nuclear power. There are concerns regarding the fuel type, however. H.A.L.E.U. [PRONOUNCED: “HAY-loo”, and stands for “high-assay low-enriched uranium”,] is richer in uranium-235 than conventional reactor fuel (above 5% but less than 20%).
    6. [MIKE: Highly enriched uranium has a higher percentage of Uranium 238. If the percentage of U-238 is high enough, which is about 90% or greater, it becomes what is called a fissile material and can be used to build atomic bombs. Most nuclear reactors currently in use to provide electricity use nuclear fuel that is enriched to a levels of about 20% or less of U-238. I’m including a link in this blog post to a 2-1/2 minute promotional video from TerraPower, as well as to a helpful one hour video that explains the concepts involved. Continuing with the story …]
    7. The completion of the TerraPower plant is scheduled for 2030, promising up to 500 megawatts of peak power output, sufficient for 400,000 homes. The project’s budget is estimated at up to $4 billion, with significant funding from the US Department of Energy. This investment covers unique costs associated with designing and licensing the first-of-its-kind reactor, suggesting that subsequent reactors could be built at a lower cost. …
    8. MIKE: I think that research into safe and efficient nuclear power, if that is not an oxymoron, is a useful thing. But at this point in time, I’m still not convinced that nuclear power is an effective answer given the problems with nuclear waste, the occasional nuclear accident (which seems to occur 2-3 times per century), and even the need to decommission nuclear plants at the end of their lives.
    9. MIKE: Frankly, having that many unresolved problems with a dangerous power source makes me very wary of expanding the nuclear power footprint.
    10. REFERENCE: VIDEO, Understanding and Solving HALEU Nuclear Fuel Supply Chain Challenges — YouTube, Approx. 1 hour.
    11. REFERENCE: The Natrium™ Reactor and Energy Storage System — YouTube, Approx. 2-1/2 minutes.
12. Congress Debates Expanded Draft Amid Military Recruitment Challenges; Republicans and Democrats are weighing proposals to expand military conscription to women and make registration automatic. Both proposals face an uphill path to becoming law. By Robert Jimison, Reporting from the Capitol | COM | June 19, 2024 / Updated 8:26 p.m. ET. TAGS: U.S. Politics, U.S. House of Representatives, U.S. Senate,
    1. The United States military has not activated a draft in more than 50 years, but Congress is weighing proposals to update mandatory conscription, including by expanding it to women for the first time and automatically registering those eligible to be called up.
    2. The proposals making their way through the House and Senate stand a slim chance of becoming law, and none would reinstate the draft compelling service right away. But the debate over potential changes reflects how lawmakers are rethinking the draft at a time when readiness issues have risen to the fore and as the Pentagon is facing recruitment challenges amid a raft of risks and conflicts around the world.
    3. The House last week passed an annual defense policy bill that, along with authorizing $895 billion in military spending including for a 19.5 percent pay raise for troops, contained a bipartisan proposal that would make registering for the draft automatic. At the same time, a Senate committee last week approved a version of the Pentagon policy bill that would expand the registration requirement to women. Senator Jack Reed, Democrat of Rhode Island and the chairman of the panel, has championed the draft parity proposal.
    4. Current law requires most men between the ages of 18 and 25 to register with the Selective Service, the agency that maintains a database of information about those who might be subject to military conscription, commonly referred to as a draft. The program is aimed at allowing military officials to determine who is eligible as a conscript in the event that Congress and the president activate the draft, which last happened in 1973 at the end of the Vietnam War.
    5. Failure to register is considered a crime and can lead to a range of punishments.
    6. At least 46 states and territories have laws that automatically register men for Selective Service when they get a driver’s license or apply for college, which has helped the program drive a high compliance rate. In 2023, more than 15 million men registered across the country, about 84 percent of those eligible.
    7. Defense Department officials say the number of young Americans who volunteer for military service has dropped, continuing a trend of decline since the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. According to the latest reports, less than 1 percent of adults in the United States serve in active duty combat roles, a significant drop from the last draft era in the 1960s, when a far greater proportion of Americans served in combat.
    8. A panel of military experts suggested to Congress in 2020 that including women in the draft would be “in the national security interest of the United States.” Since then, Congress has repeatedly considered proposals to make the change, but they have all been scrapped before becoming law.
    9. Women have since 2016 been allowed to serve in every role in the military, including ground combat, and there is some degree of bipartisan support for the idea that they should also be required to be subject to the draft. Senator Lisa Murkowski, Republican of Alaska, noted that she championed a similar proposal during her time in the Alaska statehouse and Senator Susan Collins of Maine said the change “seems logical.”
    10. Even Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Republican leader, has previously expressed support for an expanded role for women in the military, including adding the same draft registration requirement that men face.
    11. But the idea of adding women to the draft has for years run into a brick wall of opposition among conservative Republicans, and at least one G.O.P. Senate candidate is seeking to use the issue to attack his Democratic opponent. …
    12. Other right-wing Republicans were quick to link the proposed addition of women to draft registration to what they argue is a trend of progressiveness run amok in the United States military. …
    13. The proposal for automatic registration has generated less controversy. Proponents argue it would streamline and lower spending for an agency that spends millions of dollars a year reminding citizens and residents of a certain age that registering is required by law. …
    14. Yet the measure is poorly understood, and the action in Congress in recent days has been misinterpreted in some quarters as a reinstatement of the draft itself. …
    15. MIKE: The first thing that has to be emphasized is that a reinstatement of the draft is not being discussed. Since passage of the Selective Training and Service Act of 1940 by a single vote in the House and subsequent passage in the Senate, Selective Service has been in nearly continuous effect since before World War 2, and was critical for rapid mobilization after the attack on Pearl Harbor and the America’s entry into World War 2. It has remained in effect even in the nearly half-century absence of actual conscription.
    16. MIKE: Rather, there’s a current discussion about how to automatically enroll people in Selective Service, and whether to include women in the enrollment.
    17. MIKE: Since at least 2010, I’ve been an advocate of universal national service for both young men and young women. That would require universal enrollment in Selective Service.
    18. MIKE: My idea of Universal National Service (UNS) would not require that everyone join the military, although participants would be offered that option as part of their orientation. And universal fitness training as part of the program might not be a bad thing. Adding some lessons in civics and government for those with a weak grasp of same might also be useful as part of orientation.
    19. MIKE: But the main reason I envision for Universal National Service is that it would offer a unifying experience for young Americans.
    20. MIKE: UNS would give citizens from many different regional and cultural backgrounds the chance to meet people different from themselves and form bonds, helping to bridge differences among Americans from different walks of life.
    21. MIKE: UNS, properly implemented, could also be a form of universal paid internships that might give some young people a chance to experience career exposure as assistants to teachers, technology workers, trades, law enforcement, communications, etc.
    22. MIKE: And of course, the elephant in the room would be availability for military service in the event of a national emergency in an increasingly dangerous and uncertain world.
    23. MIKE: In a national emergency, whether women would be conscripted for combat roles or simply offered the option of participating in combat roles (as is currently the case), is purely speculative for now.
    24. MIKE: Since I know nothing about the actual details for the bills under discussion, I have no position on them, but I do hope that Universal National Service becomes part of the discussion.
    25. REFERENCE: Selective Service System — WIKIPEDIA.ORG
    26. REFERENCE: Selective Training and Service Act of 1940 — WIKIPEDIA.ORG
    27. REFERENCE: Congress enacts first peacetime draft law, Sept. 14, 1940 — POLITICO.COM (“On Aug. 12, the House approved the extension by a single vote, 203-202, with 182 Democrats and 21 Republicans voting in favor and 65 Democrats, 133 Republicans and four others voting against. The Senate approved the extension by a wider margin.”)
13. OPINION — Cuba-Russian relations come full circle — why US policy must reflect this reality; By Cristina Lopez-Gottardi, opinion contributor | THEHILL.COM | 06/15/24 3:00 PM ET. TAGS Cuba-Russia Ties Cuban Missile Crisis Nikita Khrushchev Russian Ships In Havana’s Harbor Ukraine War Vladimir Putin
    1. In September 1960 Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev gave Fidel Castro a resounding bear hug. The setting was the annual meeting of the United Nations General Assembly, and the hug marked the beginning of a long and storied history between Cuba and the Soviet Union. According to James G. Hershberg, this encounter symbolized “the creation of a sturdy Soviet-Cuban political, economic, and military alliance, and the island’s incorporation into the communist world.” …
    2. And in the years that followed, Cuba grew desperately dependent on Soviet markets and aid, becoming a steadfast Cold War ally, eventually joining the Soviet-led COMECON and becoming the recipient of an estimated $4.5 billion in annual Soviet subsidies.
    3. Fast forward several decades, and Cuba appears poised to repeat history, risking U.S. security and its own sovereignty again in the process. In recent days, a convoy of Russian ships arrived in Cuba for a week-long stay that will include a series of air and naval exercises in the Caribbean. The four-ship caravan includes a nuclear-powered submarine, a fleet oil tanker, a frigate, a salvage tug and a hypersonic missile. 
    4. This development — a clear show of force and a demonstration of strengthening ties between Cuba and Russia — comes just a few years after the two countries announced plans to enhance a joint intelligence facility on the island, and two years into Russia’s war in Ukraine. It also comes following Cuba’s expressed disapproval of Ukraine’s entry into NATO and as U.S.-Russia tensions further escalate, threatening European and broader Western stability and security. 
    5. Just last week, in response to a S. decision to allow Ukraine to use American weapons inside Russia, Russian President Vladimir Putin replied with new threats, announcing that he could provide arms to allies for the purpose of striking Western targets.
    6. While the Russian convoy is not expected to pose an immediate security risk to the United States, it’s hard to imagine that its arrival isn’t also meant to be a demonstration of Russia’s objection to America’s ongoing support of Ukraine. These actions, reminiscent of the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, are evidence that Cuba continues to both host and support some of America’s most dangerous adversaries. Given the dismal state of the Cuban economy, it’s likely Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel believes his country’s survival depends on it.
    7. To further complicate matters, Cuba-Russia relations are not limited to the military sphere. In fact, as in early Cold War days, there are extensive plans to increase economic ties and influence between the two nations.
    8. Last May, Cuba welcomed a Russian delegation of government officials and business leaders with promises of preferential access to Cuban land, more favorable import tariffs and enhanced shipping arrangements. There has also been discussion of deals related to Russian wheat, crude oil, sugar production, the creation of a Cuban market for varied Russian goods, as well as possible joint investments in Cuba’s tourist industry.
    9. In 2022, trade between the two nations grew to an estimated $450 million, a threefold increase from the year prior, and with expectations of further growth this year. These developments come at a time of escalating economic and social desperation for Cubans, who for years have struggled with severe food and medicine shortages and daily electricity outages. Cubans also continue to contend with a government that is stubbornly apathetic, repressive and draconian.
    10. Since at least July 2021, when protests erupted across the island, public frustration and protests have become more commonplace, with severe punishment exerted on those who demonstrate.
    11. These strengthening Cuba-Russia military and economic ties, coupled with growing economic and social despair in Cuba, should serve as an important wake up call to the United States and its Western allies.
    12. In case there was any doubt, the arrival of Russian ships in Havana’s harbor this week provides dramatic evidence that Cuba and Russia may be returning to their Cold War-era bonds. As a result, the Biden administration should acknowledge this fact and adjust its expectations and policies accordingly. Not doing so could have dire consequences for the United States and wider hemispheric security.
    13. MIKE: I’ll start by reminding folks that the Caribbean is not a US lake, and Russia has every right to sail in international waters or through international straits, just as the US frequently does, and the US also does this in areas of geopolitical tension to “show the flag”. There’s no reason to expect the Russians to do any less.
    14. MIKE: And just like the Russians often do when the US or NATO send ships into contested waters, the US and Canada, in what is obviously a show of solidarity, have docked at Guantanamo Bay in eastern Cuba to essentially keep an eye on the Russians, and not doubt to surveil them.
    15. MIKE: This made me curious to know when the lease on Guantanamo Bay expires and I learned that, according to Wikipedia, “The 1903 lease has no fixed expiration date;^[9] as such, it can only be ended if the US Navy decided to abandon the area or both countries agreed mutually to end the lease.”
    16. MIKE: That surprised me since most internation territorial leases expire after no more than 99 years, a figure that might have originated in English common law.
    17. MIKE: In any case, the US will likely continue to hold on to Guantanamo for as long as it can, and this will become more important if Russia or other powers attempt extend their influence in this hemisphere.
    18. MIKE: It’s hard to remember that this attitude of US dominance here probably extends back over 200 years to the proclamation of the Monroe Doctrine, declaring that the US would not tolerate European powers interfering in the western hemisphere.
    19. MIKE: While the Doctrine certainly has no power in international law, it still guides US policy thinking when Russia or China, or any other potentially hostile nation, attempts to develop influence and bases anywhere around the Americas.
    20. MIKE: Russia’s redeveloping relationship with Cuba certainly isn’t approaching the level of the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, but it needs to be watched.
    21. MIKE: I’ll also mention that if Trump hadn’t reversed President Obama’s attempts at developing a US relationship with Cuba, this might not be a current issue. So it might be said that this represents another example of Trump policies damaging the long-term geopolitical interests of the United States.
    22. MIKE: For those who may be interested, I’ve included three relevant links at the bottom of this show post for your perusal.
    23. REFERENCE: US attack sub, Canada navy patrol ship arrive in Cuba on heels of Russian warships; By Dave Sherwood | | June 14, 2024 @ 7:52 PM CDT / Updated 5 days ago
    24. REFERENCE: Why Leases Are For 99 Years — PROPTIGER.COM
    25. REFERENCE: Monroe Doctrine (1823) — ARCHIVES.GOV

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