AUDIO:
    

POSSIBLE TOPICS: If you’re a victim of domestic violence over the holidays, you’re not alone. Here’s who can help.; Galveston County to use 2021 maps in upcoming elections, courts rule; Pearland, Friendswood becoming more diverse; Tomball, Magnolia see changes in diversity of population between 2017-22;   Conroe and Montgomery area sees changes in diversity of population between 2017-22; Amarillo City Council says it needs more time to debate abortion travel ban; Colorado Supreme Court kicks Trump off the state’s 2024 primary ballot for violating the U.S. Constitution; Trump Could Legally Use the U.S. Military as Domestic Law Enforcers; What does Orbán’s decision on Ukraine’s EU membership mean for an enlarged bloc?; At COP28, John Kerry unveils nuclear fusion strategy as a source of clean energy; COP28 — OPINION — Opec rails against fossil fuel phase-out at Cop28 in leaked letters; COP28: 5 big takeaways on a historic climate agreement; A Title Of Masterful Understatement — ‘Not conducive to our survival’: Pacific islands on the climate frontline respond to Cop28 deal; The agreement was hailed as a win for climate action, but Pacific campaigners say it is too little too late in a rapidly warming world,. and More!

Welcome to Thinkwing Radio with Mike Honig where we discuss local, state, national, and international stories. My co-host, assistant producer and show editor is Andrew Ferguson.

Thinkwing Radio with Mike Honig (@ThinkwingRadio) is now on Wednesdays at 11AM (CT) or Thursdays at 6PM on KPFT 90.1 FM-HD2, Houston’s Community Media. You can also hear the show:

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Except for timely election info, the extensive list of voting resources will now be at the end.

1. In light of the tendency for emotions to run high and sometimes hot, I’m including this story as a Public Service Announcement: If you’re a victim of domestic violence over the holidays, you’re not alone. Here’s who can help. by Clare Amari / Staff Writer | HOUSTONLANDING.ORG | December 19, 2023
   1. For many, end-of-year holidays like Christmas and New Year’s Eve are a time of celebration, homecoming and joy. 
   2. But for those coping with an abusive partner or family member, the stresses of the holiday season — financial pressure, free-flowing alcohol and increased time alone with partners — can exacerbate an already volatile situation. …
   3. The Houston Area Women’s Center is one of numerous organizations in Houston and surrounding counties that support victims of domestic violence. These groups provide a range of services, including emergency shelters for victims and hotlines that connect callers to trained advocates who can talk through safety planning in multiple languages. 
   4. Below, the Houston Landing compiled a list of organizations and advocates that can provide assistance and support over the holidays. Those with confidential hotlines are listed first.
   5. For those worried about potential violence, Whitehurst recommended creating a safety plan in advance of the holidays. This could involve creating a safe word and practicing an escape plan with children, or packing a bag in advance and hiding it in a safe place in case of violence. …
   6. Additional safety planning tips and strategies are available online through the Houston Area Women’s Center or the National Domestic Violence Hotline. Both organizations also operate hotlines that victims and survivors can call for help, including counseling, shelter services and personalized safety planning. These hotlines will be operating over the holidays. 
   7. For the Houston Area Women’s Center, call 346-295-8994. For the National Domestic Violence Hotline, call 800-799-7233. 
   8. Nathaniel Waldie, a Houston Police Department detective sergeant in the Major Assaults and Family Violence Division, said calling 911 can also be a way of connecting with help, including support outside of law enforcement. Responders will assist survivors in connecting with the vast network of resources available in the Houston area, including advocacy organizations that provide shelter and safety planning. In some circumstances, advocates are even available to assist on scene.
   9. “Our main aspect with family violence-related crimes is (providing) resources,” said Waldie. “We don’t want (the situation) to escalate further.”
   10. Waldie said the relationship doesn’t have to be physically violent for the Houston Police Department to help. 
   11. “If you’re in a relationship and this relationship has a severe issue of dominance over one person … (that) limits your ability to seek independence, to speak for yourself. If you want to call the police, you can,” he said. “We will document that.” 
   12. Additional lists of resources in the Houston area, including hotlines, counseling services and legal aid, are available online through the Harris County Domestic Violence Coordinating Council and Aid to Victims of Domestic Abuse. 
   13. Here is contact information for 11 organizations in Greater Houston, with notes identifying organizations that serve specific communities. 
       1. The Houston Area Women’s Center
          Houston, Harris County
          Hotline: 346-295-8994
       2. The Fort Bend Women’s Center
          Fort Bend County
          Hotline: 281-342-4357
       3. The Montgomery County Women’s Center
          Montgomery County
          Hotline: 936-441-7273
       4. The Resource and Crisis Center of Galveston County
          The Strand and Galveston Island, Galveston County
          Hotline: 888-919-7233
       5. The Women’s Center of Brazoria County
          Brazoria County
          Hotline: 1-800-243-5788 (central and south county), 281-585-0902 (north county), 1-800-528-5888 (for interpreters) 
       6. Northwest Assistance Ministries
          Bammel and Houston, Harris County
          Hotline: (281) 885-4673
       7. Daya
          Woodlake and Houston, Harris County
          Hotline: 713-981-7645
          Daya serves victims and survivors in the South Asian community. 
       8. The Montrose Center
          Houston, Harris County 
          713-529-0037
          The Montrose Center services victims and survivors in the LGBTQ+ community. 
       9. The Bridge Over Troubled Waters
          Pasadena and Baytown, Harris County
          713-472-0753
       10. The Bay Area Turning Point
           Clear Lake and Webster, Harris County
           281-286-2525
       11. Family Time Crisis and Counseling Center
           Humble, Harris County 
           281-446-2615
   14. MIKE: If you or someone you know may need this information at some point, please keep it in mind for yourself or to pass along.
2. Galveston County to use 2021 maps in upcoming elections, courts rule; By James T. Norman | COMMUNITYIMPACT.COM | 2:52 PM Dec 15, 2023 CST , Updated 2:52 PM Dec 15, 2023 CST
   1. Less than a week after a [US] court of appeals ruled [that] a map drawn in 2021 by Galveston County officials [should] be used for the upcoming 2024 elections, the U.S. Supreme Court reaffirmed the decision, denying the plaintiff’s request to overturn [it].
   2. In an ongoing federal case, Petteway vs. Galveston County, officials are trying to determine if a map drawn by county officials in 2021 as part of its redistricting process violated the rights of minority voters.
   3. In a Dec. 12 ruling, the U.S. Supreme Court denied a request from the plaintiffs of the case that asked the court to overturn the decision from the U.S. Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals, which issued a stay on Dec. 7, meaning the maps drawn in 2021 would be used for the 2024 elections.
   4. The newest Supreme Court ruling came just days after plaintiffs filed the emergency application to overturn the stay [on] Dec. 8—[which was] just ahead of the state’s filing deadline for the March primaries, officials with the Southern Coalition for Social Justice said in a 12 news release.
   5. In the months leading up to the decision, a U.S. District Court ruled in October [that Galveston] county must redraw its maps. In November, that same judge, Judge Jeffrey Brown, ordered the use of a remedial map in the meantime.
   6. The case was originally filed in 2022 following the county’s 2021 redistricting process.
   7. Those filing the case, which included the Southern Coalition for Social Justice, local Galveston chapters of the NAACP, the local council for the League of United Latin American Citizens and other civil rights leaders, said the map discriminated against Black and Latino voters.
   8. “This ruling emboldens more politicians to try the same tactics that the Galveston commissioners used to create this blatantly discriminatory map,” said Joaquin Gonzalez, senior supervising attorney for the Voting Rights Program at the Texas Civil Rights Project, in the release. “We will continue fighting for Galveston residents to have a fair shot to influence the decisions that shape their community.”
   9. [Galveston County Judge Mark Henry said in a Dec. 13 statement that,] “We are pleased with the majority opinion of the Supreme Court [on Dec. 12] to deny all motions by the plaintiffs in this case,” [He went on that,] “As signaled from the majority opinion of the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals stay last week, we are hopeful that Galveston County will prevail on merits of this case. The Voting Rights Act does not support this ‘coalition district’ theory that the plaintiffs are trying to use in requiring us to draw Democrat districts.”
   10. There is a review for the case planned for May, which will be en banc, meaning it will be heard by several judges at once.
   11. In the meantime, the 2021 map will be used for the [2024]elections, according to the release from the SCSJ.
   12. ANDREW: I looked at the four documents related to the Supreme Court decision about this, and I don’t recommend doing that because the absolute audacity of Galveston County’s lawyers makes my blood boil. They argue that, essentially, because both Black and Latine’ people live in the district getting eliminated, the Voting Rights Act doesn’t apply because it’s only set up to hear complaints concerning one minority group. Even if that’s true, which I don’t trust them to accurately claim it is, this logic flies in the face of the intent of the VRA as legislation that is supposed to prevent racist dilution of minority voting power. Being racist against two groups of people should be an even more certain violation of the law.
   13. ANDREW: And the fact that the Fifth Circuit initially did order Galveston County to use the (at least) less-racist map for the election and then turned around and said “never mind, use the racist one”… this case is just further proof that the legal system in the United States is not concerned with justice, it’s concerned with doing what is most convenient for the state and the people who manage to lie and cheat and steal and threaten their way to the top of it. From local courts right up to the Supreme Court, when a judge does what is right, it is a fluke that will be quickly “corrected” by a higher court or punished through openly political means.
   14. ANDREW: People talk about “what to do when the law fails”? Well, the law has failed, and I guess people in that disappeared district have no recourse but to look for a sale on pitchforks and torches.
   15. MIKE: I’m going to say something I don’t think I’ve ever said on this show before: Factually speaking, I’m going to yield to your greater authority on this issue, since you’ve read the documents.
   16. MIKE: Politically speaking, I agree with everything you said, except that if folks look for sales on pitchforks and torches, maybe try to avoid buying them at Home Depot or Hobby Lobby.
   17. MIKE: And we’re both speaking metaphorically, of course.
3. These next, three stories are about changes in regional demographics:
4. Pearland, Friendswood becoming more diverse; By Rachel Leland | COMMUNITYIMPACT.COM | 4:42 PM Dec 18, 2023 CST , Updated 4:42 PM Dec 18, 2023 CST
   7. Over the last five years, the demographic makeup in Pearland and Friendswood has changed, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2022 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates released Dec. 7.
   8. In Pearland and Friendswood, the white population decreased to 37% and 71%, respectively, according to the American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates.
   9. Meanwhile, the Asian population rose to 16% in Pearland while it decreased to 4.8% in Friendswood. In Friendswood, the Black population rose to 4%.
   10. When it comes to ethnicity, the Hispanic or Latino population also saw increases in both cities, according to the American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates.
   11. Pearland’s Hispanic or Latino population grew from 21.7% to 26.4%, according to the data.
   12. Friendswood’s Hispanic or Latino population grew from 14.5% to 16.8%, according to the data.
   13. LINKS TO INCLUDED GRAPHS: A Flourish chart1, A Flourish chart2
5. Tomball, Magnolia see changes in diversity of population between 2017-22; By Lizzy Spangler | COMMUNITYIMPACT.COM | 9:15 AM Dec 18, 2023 CST
   7. Over the last five years, the demographic makeup within the school districts in Tomball and Magnolia has changed, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2022 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates released Dec. 7.
   8. In both Magnolia and Tomball ISD boundaries, the white population decreased to 68.1% and 60.5%, respectively, according to the American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates. Meanwhile, the Asian population within both school districts rose—from 1.2% to 1.4% in Magnolia ISD and from 4.9% to 8% in Tomball ISD.
   9. In terms of ethnicity, the Hispanic or Latino population also saw increases, rising from 21.2% to 24% in MISD and from 20.8% to 22.8% in TISD.
   10. LINKS TO INCLUDED GRAPHS: A Flourish chart1, A Flourish chart2
6. Conroe and Montgomery area sees changes in diversity of population between 2017-22; By Lizzy Spangler | COMMUNITYIMPACT.COM | 9:15 AM Dec 18, 2023 CST
   7. Over the last five years, the demographic makeup within the school districts in the Conroe and Montgomery area has changed, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2022 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates released Dec. 7.
   8. In Conroe and Willis ISDs, the white population decreased to 60% and 67.1%, respectively, while in Montgomery ISD it rose slightly from 84.1% to 84.2%, according to the American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates. Meanwhile, the Asian population saw increases within all the district boundaries.
   9. Conroe ISD’s Asian population grew from 3.7% to 4.5%.
   10. Montgomery ISD’s Asian population grew from 1% to 1.4%.
   11. Willis ISD’s Asian population grew from 0.9% to 1%.
   12. When it comes to ethnicity, the Hispanic or Latino population also saw increases within all three school district boundaries, according to the American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates.
   13. Conroe ISD’s Hispanic or Latino population grew from 23.9% to 25.3%.
   14. Montgomery ISD’s Hispanic or Latino population grew from 8.5% to 9%.
   15. Willis ISD’s Hispanic or Latino population grew from 21.3% to 24.2%.
   16. LINKS TO INCLUDED GRAPHS: A Flourish chart1, A Flourish chart2
   17. MIKE: This is part of the national demographic trend toward a minority-majority population. For those who might be unfamiliar with this term, it’s typically used to describe a case where the largest minority is non-Hispanic Whites, while the majority of the population is a mixture of other ethnic groups.
   18. MIKE: I think it’s interesting that this trend is reaching areas that used to seem immune, or at least highly resistant.
   19. ANDREW: That’s a good point, Mike. In the 1950s and 60s, suburbs saw a major expansion due to the phenomenon of “white flight”, where white people moved out of urban areas that were becoming more racially diverse. Thanks to discriminatory practices like redlining, Black people and other people of color had a much harder time moving to those suburbs, so for a long time those areas did resist racial demographic changes. 
   20. ANDREW: White flight does still happen, so we shouldn’t take these stories to mean that racism is over or anything like that. But it may be reasonable to conclude that laws meant to stop housing and lending discrimination have finally begun to overcome the ripple effect that that discrimination had on suburb demographics.
   21. MIKE: The suburbs: They’re not just for White people anymore. When I bought my first house in Houston in 1977-78, coming from NYC, which was a segregated city in fact if not in name, one of the pleasantly surprising things to me was having neighbors from different ethnic groups. So now this trend is simply expanding outward from the main cities.
7. Amarillo City Council says it needs more time to debate abortion travel ban; After weeks of debate, the council took no action at a politically-charged meeting Tuesday. It is the largest city in Texas to debate an ordinance that would outlaw travel on its roadways to get an abortion. by Jayme Lozano Carver | TEXASTRIBUNE.ORG | Dec. 19, 2023 – 8 hours ago
   1. The Amarillo City Council prolonged its debate over a so-called abortion travel ban on Tuesday, spending more than two hours in front of a packed room reviewing draft rules that would attempt to block access to Colorado and New Mexico, two states where a Texas woman could legally obtain an abortion.
   2. The five-member council discussed three different drafts of the ordinance, with varying measures in each, and left the table without resolution. Abortion rights activists and legal scholars have sharply criticized the ordinances, calling the rules unconstitutional.
   3. The meeting offered a rare window into how a local government wades into one of America’s thorniest and most politically charged issues. The council — which includes no women — governs a city of more than 200,000 people and has bucked the trend of other smaller, rural cities and counties that passed similar ordinances with little debate.
   4. The Amarillo council has now spent three different meetings grappling with whether to approve the rules that were first proposed by anti-abortion activists. The Panhandle city has been a hot spot for the debate, as Interstates 40 and 27 run through the city. …
   5. MIKE: The actual story is somewhat longer. Aside from the fact that all these attempts to regulate who goes on Texas roads and for what reasons, let me open by saying that these schemes are heinous in their intent.
   6. MIKE: Secondarily, as a lay person, I’m not going to argue this as a matter of law but as a matter of logic. I’ve never heard of a person being charged with the use of roads with intent to commit crimes such as theft or assault or, say, murder of an actual born person. This would seem to open up a whole can of worms. Can you be charged with walking on sidewalks or other public land with the intent of committing a crime? And would such a work-around give police an excuse to stop anyone at any time on suspicion of traveling to a future crime scene.
   7. MIKE: These rules are ludicrous on their face, aside from possibly being unConstitutional. They fail logical tests. Since only the federal government can regulate interstate commerce, can a road or other facility be so regulated if it was built with federal funds? It’s a crazy idea.
   8. ANDREW: I’m sure many of your observations there are going to feature in legal challenges to these ordinances. I agree that they are clearly unConstitutional, but as our earlier story involving the Supreme Court illustrated, it’s no sure bet that judges will see reason.
   9. MIKE: Or the Constitution, for that matter.
8. Colorado Supreme Court kicks Trump off the state’s 2024 primary ballot for violating the U.S. Constitution; The ruling marks the first time a 14th Amendment challenge to Trump’s candidacy has been successful. By Gary Grumbach and Dareh Gregorian | NBCNEWS.COM | Dec. 19, 2023, 5:13 PM CST / Updated Dec. 19, 2023, 7:33 PM CST
   1. In a bombshell decision, Colorado’s Supreme Court on Tuesday ruled that former President Donald Trump‘s candidacy in the state’s primary next year is prohibited on constitutional grounds.
   2. The first-of-its kind ruling stems from a lawsuit that focused a little-known provision in the 14th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution. Similar challenges in other states have proven unsuccessful. …
   3. … Section 3of the Civil War-era 14th Amendment says [in part]: “No person shall … hold any office, civil or military, under the United States … who, having previously taken an oath … as an officer of the United States, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof.” …
   4. The suit was filed on behalf of six Colorado voters by the left-leaning government watchdog group Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washingtonand two law firms. Noah Bookbinder, the group’s president, said the ruling was “not only historic and justified, but is necessary to protect the future of democracy in our country.” …
   5. MIKE: It’s been reported elsewhere that five of the six Colorado voters are Republicans, the sixth is an Independent. Continuing …
   6. …Courts have ruled against similar efforts to get Trump banned from the ballot in Arizona, Michigan and Minnesota. The plaintiffs challenging Trump’s eligibility in Michigan filed an appeal to that state’s high court on Monday.
   7. MIKE: There are apparently about 30 other states with similar cases pending. While the Colorado case may not exactly represent binding precedent, it is likely to be used as guidance in other cases.
   8. MIKE: The Colorado case raised a couple of questions in my mind. First, while Trump may not be on a ballot, can he be written in. I don’t see why not. But if Trump won a write-in primary vote, would it matter?
   9. MIKE: It might be the reverse of “doing a Sherman”. For those who don’t know, after the Civil War, there was a movement to draft General William Tecumseh Sherman to be a candidate for president. Sherman was so opposed to the idea that he famously said to have declared, “If nominated, I will not run. If elected, I will not serve.”
   10. MIKE: In Trump’s case, it might end up as, If nominated, he will run; if elected he cannot We’re in for some interesting times.
   11. ANDREW: The article says that the court’s ruling forbids the Colorado Secretary of State from listing Trump on the primary ballot or counting any write-in votes cast for him. So assuming the US Supreme Court doesn’t hear a case about Trump’s eligibility under the 14th Amendment before the Colorado ruling takes effect on January 4th, the answer to your question is no, it won’t matter if Trump wins a write-in campaign for the Colorado primary, because he legally can’t.
   12. ANDREW: I guess we better hope nobody tells the Supreme Court about the January 4th deadline.
   13. MIKE: Let’s speculate. On the write-in question, you’re correct. Legally, any place where Trump may have been booted off the ballot, Trump couldn’t win, but numerically he could. If Trump did a sort of “Survivor” immunity idol where no votes cast for him counted, that would be a whole new crisis.
   14. REFERENCE: “I will not accept if nominated, and will not serve if elected.” ~ Telegram sent to General Henderson in 1884, refusing to run in the United States presidential election of that year. As quoted in Sherman’s Memoirs, 4th ed. 1891. This is often paraphrased: If nominated, I will not run; if elected, I will not serve. Cited from WikiQuotes.
9. This next story is from a couple of weeks ago, but is still worth noting: Trump Could Legally Use the U.S. Military as Domestic Law Enforcers; The former president’s pledge to use the military within our borders could be fully legal thanks to the vague language of the Insurrection Act. By Morgan Cloud, Opinion | THEDAILYBEAST.COM | Updated Dec. 03, 2023 @ 2:24AM EST / Published Dec. 02, 2023 @ 8:26PM EST 
   1. Could a second-term President Donald Trump legally use military forces to conduct domestic law enforcement activities? The simple answer to the question is “yes.”
   2. Beginning with George Washington, more than a dozen presidents have deployed troops more than two dozen times for law enforcement purposes. The most relevant federal law is the Insurrection Act.
   3. In 1827, the Supreme Court concluded that an earlier version of the law gave the president the exclusive authority “to decide whether [an exigency requiring the militia to be called out] has arisen, and… his decision is conclusive upon all other persons.” Later versions of the law have not restricted the president’s power to decide whether an emergency exists.
   4. That power does not exist in a vacuum. It arises out of the need for prompt actions in response to events like violent insurrections. …
   5. The law’s core purpose has always been to provide tools for combating violent uprisings. President Washington invoked an early version of the law in 1794 to quell the Whiskey Rebellion against federal excise taxes on domestically produced “distilled spirits.”
   6. Over the next two centuries, the law was amended several times, but events triggering its use generally have involved public violence, including efforts to oppress newly freed slaves in the Reconstruction-era South, violent labor disputes between workers and strike breakers in the 19th and 20th centuries, and riots in our cities—like those triggered by the murder of Martin Luther King, Jr. in 1968, and the state court verdict in the Rodney King trial in 1992—where police officers were acquitted on charges related to King’s beating at their hands.
   7. MIKE: The language about federal troops intervening between unions and strike breakers is a bit disingenuous. Federal troops pretty much always intervened against the unions, leading one source to describe US labor history as perhaps the bloodiest in the world. I’ve discussed that in some of my Labor Day shows. But continuing …
   8. Unfortunately, the current version of the law contains broad language that a president unconcerned about traditional political and normative restraints on executive power could try to exploit in the absence of an actual rebellion or insurrection.
   9. The Insurrection Act allows the president to use the military in three situations.
   10. First, the law permits the president to send troops when asked by a state’s government to suppress an insurrection. The state must request help from the national government, but whether to grant the request is left to the president’s discretion.
   11. Examples of how this might happen under a second Trump administration come readily to mind. A red state governor, say of Texas, might request that the president send troops to patrol the border with Mexico to control an “insurrection” against the state’s government caused by the “flood” of illegal immigrants. In response, the president could send members of the armed forces, the National Guard, or both.
   12. [Second,] a request for help from the state is not necessary for the president to invoke the Insurrection Act. The law includes two sections permitting the president to act even if a state rejects offers of federal help.
   13. One section authorizes use of armed forces to suppress “obstructions, combinations, or assemblages, or rebellion against the authority of the United States” that the president considers to be unlawful, and which make it “impracticable to enforce” federal law in that state.
   14. Again, possible actions by a second Trump administration come readily to mind. Is it possible that an adviser like Stephen Miller could persuade President Trump to send troops to our southern border to arrest groups—combinations or assemblages—of people because their actions, like leaving bottled water in the desert for immigrants and asylum seekers, are unlawful obstructions of government authority? Given their past words and actions, this seems possible.
   15. [Third,] Another provision of the Insurrection Act authorizes the president to suppress “any insurrection, domestic violence, unlawful combination, or conspiracy” that prevents execution of federal and state laws.
   16. The potential scope of this poorly drafted statute is stunning. The law does not define the term insurrection, apparently leaving that decision for the president. … [A]n authoritarian president willing to exploit the statute’s imprecise and careless language might claim the authority to order troops to engage in regular law enforcement duties normally left to civilian police. …
   17. Of course, widespread opposition would erupt, constitutional objections would be raised, and eventually political and legal constraints might force the president to back down. But the initial decision to deploy troops from the Army, Navy, Air Force, or Marines to act like domestic police officers appears to rest solely with the president.
   18. MIKE: It should be noted that the public demonstrations opposing invocation of the Insurrection Act could be used as cover for continuing to invoke the Insurrection Act, which would be perfect circular logic that is also used for continuing losing or pointless wars. Back to the story …
   19. Would that allow the president to use federal troops to suppress a “woman’s march” protesting the election of a president found guilty of sexual assault by a New York jury? An aggressive administration, unconcerned about constitutional rules and norms, might argue that the law’s broad text grants the president discretion to do that.
   20. This authority is not nullified by the Posse Comitatus Act, which generally prohibits use of the military to engage in traditional civilian law enforcement. The Insurrection Act is an express legislative exception to this rule, despite the threats to democracy posed by military intervention in civilian life.
   21. Since 2020, proposals to limit the president’s broad powers under the Insurrection Act have been offered by members of Congress and civil liberties organizations. None have been adopted.
   22. The Supreme Court originally upheld an expansive grant of discretionary power to the president in part because it was “a limited power, confined to cases of actual invasion, or of imminent danger of invasion,” but also because it presumed that the president possessed high qualities of “public virtue, and honest devotion to the public interests.” This presumption may have been justified two centuries ago, but it would be an absurd delusion in a second Trump presidency.
   23. In that same decision, the Supreme Court concluded that if the president abuses the power granted by the Insurrection Act, the remedies would be found in the “constitution itself… the frequency of elections, and the watchfulness of the representatives of the nation… to guard against usurpation or wanton tyranny.“
   24. If these tools fail during the next 12 months, so might our democracy.
   25. MIKE: Broadly speaking, laws are written to be understood by the hypothetical “reasonable person”. Legal weeds are created by the “unreasonable person”, requiring constant tweaking of laws in micro circumstances.
   26. MIKE: Trump is a case of the “unreasonable person” on steroids, potentially having close to unlimited power and unconstrained by precedent, politics, or morals. All he needs are people at the levers of power to implement his implied or expressed wishes.
   27. MIKE: As president, Andrew Jackson “… allegedly defied the Supreme Court over Worcester v. Georgia (1832), announcing, ‘John Marshall has made his decision, now let him enforce it.’”
   28. MIKE: In that respect, even Richard Nixon was not as bad as Andrew Jackson. He at least obeyed Supreme Court decisions, even to his own detriment.
   29. MIKE: Two observations can be made here under the masthead of “Good News/Bad News”. The Good News: The US survived a previous president who was known to ignore or violate US laws and courts. The bad news: Trump is probably a worse scofflaw than Andrew Jackson and Richard Nixon combined, and he can invoke emergency powers that make him legally and practically almost invulnerable.
   30. ANDREW: I would say that if we can’t pass sweeping reforms to the Insurrection Act, one change that might get through is instituting a watchdog with the enforceable power to undo the President’s declaration and put him in Insurrection Time Out for a period of time. The Supreme Court might be a natural choice for this, though we’ve seen in recent years the weaknesses of giving the final say on all issues to a group of unelected god-kings-for-life appointed by the same person they often oversee. Perhaps an odd-numbered group of randomly selected Senators and Representatives, from both the majority and the minority in each chamber? Something to think on. At any rate, I think the Insurrection Act is long overdue for some limits, because you never know when the insurrectionists are going to be the reasonable ones.
   31. REFERENCE: Andrew Jackson and the Constitution — The Gilder Lehrman Institute of American History
10. What does Orbán’s decision on Ukraine’s EU membership mean for an enlarged bloc?; Leaders recognise that a bigger union will bring challenges including difficult budget and policy decisions. By Lili Bayer in Brussels | THEGUARDIAN.COM | Thu 14 Dec 2023 16.38 EST, Last modified on Fri 15 Dec 2023 00.04 EST
    1. The EU has made a historic decision to open accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova but a tense summit in Brussels has underscored the difficulties ahead for the bloc as it plans to let more members join.
    2. For weeks, Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orbán, insisted he would block opening talks with Kyiv, which required unanimous approval from the member states.
    3. His veto threats dominated conversations in Brussels …
    4. In a move critics have described as a bribe, the European Commission unfroze about €10bn earmarked for Hungary, arguing the country had successfully completed judicial reforms.
    5. In the end, after hours of talks on Thursday, Orbán relented – walking out of the room while the other 26 leaders agreed to start negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova, thus allowing for a unanimous decision. …
    6. The EU’s showdown with Orbán did, however, serve as a reminder of the tough road ahead for the EU as it prepares to enlarge.
    7. The bloc is already grappling with how to address rule-of-law problems and foreign policy divergences in countries such as Hungary, and many leaders recognise that the EU would have to reform internally before expanding. …
    8. While there is a recognition that the accession process could take years, in Kyiv the EU decision to open talks is seen as a gamechanger. “It means so much to Ukrainian people,” said one Ukrainian official. “We did everything to make it happen.” …
    9. MIKE: This action is symbolically important for Ukraine, but it does show the problems with any organization that requires unanimity for action.
    10. MIKE: For some background, the core of the EU was actually formed in 1944 as a tiny trading group called the Benelux Union, noted in Wikipedia as “… a politico-economic union and formal international intergovernmental cooperation of three neighbouring states in western Europe: Belgium, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg.”
    11. MIKE: In 1957, Benelux and two other groups were subsumed into what became a group of six countries called the European Economic Community, or EEC. This was replaced by the European Union in 1993.
    12. MIKE: While unanimity may have sounded like a good idea among six nations wanting to preserve some sovereign decision-making, it becomes unwieldy and ultimately nearly impossible past a certain point. NATO is facing a similar problem.
    13. MIKE: If the US required unanimity among the States to pass a Constitutional Amendment, for example, we might never have passed any beyond the first 10, now known as The Bill of Rights.
    14. MIKE: At some point, the EU will have to deal with this reality, and the problem will be achieving unanimity to do it.
    15. REFERENCE: The idea of a “United States of Europe”, or European Federation — From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (“… a hypothetical scenario of European integration leading to the formation of a sovereign superstate (similar to the United States of America), organised as a federation of the member countries of the European Union (EU), as contemplated by political scientists, politicians, geographers, historians, futurologists and fiction writers. At present, while the EU is not a federation, various academic observers regard it as having some of the characteristics of a federal system.^[3]”)
11. MIKE: Following the progression of COP28 has been interesting. Following are some stories leading up to its conclusion.
12. At COP28, John Kerry unveils nuclear fusion strategy as a source of clean energy; By JENNIFER McDERMOTT | APnews.COM | Updated 5:24 PM CST, December 5, 2023.
    1. The United States will work with other governments to speed up efforts to make nuclear fusion a new source of carbon-free energy, U.S. Climate Envoy John Kerry said Tuesday, the latest of many U.S. announcements the last week aimed at combatting climate change. …
    2. MIKE: The story describes what fusion is for those who don’t know, and it talks about the hope that it allows for a new and less dangerous form of carbon-free nuclear power. The problem I have with putting this on the table at COP28 as an option on the horizon is that it falls into the category of what I call, “Eventually, everything is only 10 years away.”
    3. MIKE: After literally decades, fusion research has only just recently managed to create just barely more energy than it consumes in order to sustain a reaction. That was a major hurdle, but it’s not nearly enough of an achievement to put fusion within sight of commercial applications.
    4. MIKE: And it’s not likely to be cheaper. It’s worth remembering that in the 1950’s, it was claimed that nuclear-generated electricity would be so cheap, it wouldn’t even need to be metered. I notice that claims that fusion power would be cheaper than fission have mostly fallen by the wayside.
    5. MIKE: Assuming that fusion technology looked ready for prime time now, it would take at least a decade or more to design and build a test reactor. That would have to run for about a decade more before the tech was considered ready for a full-scale multi-thousand-megawatt-sized generation facility.
    6. MIKE: So by all means, nations need to keep plugging away at the theory, science and technology of fusion, but they shouldn’t be banking the planet’s future survival on it anytime soon.
    7. ANDREW: You’re right about fusion. In my opinion (and Mike will disagree), the more paradigm-shifting, but practical solutions like degrowth are the better subject of discussion at events like these.
    8. REFERENCE: The First Small-Scale Nuclear Plant in the US Died Before It Could Live; Six nuclear reactors just 9 feet across planned for Idaho were supposed to prove out the dream of cheap, small-scale nuclear energy. Now the project has been canceled. — By Gregory Barber | WIRED.COM | Nov 9, 2023 @ 3:43 PM
13. COP28: OPINION — Opec rails against fossil fuel phase-out at Cop28 in leaked letters; Oil cartel warns ‘pressure may reach a tipping point’ and that ‘politically motivated campaigns put our prosperity’ at risk. Damian Carrington (@dpcarrington) | THEGUARDIAN.COM | Fri 8 Dec 2023 12.52 EST, First published on Fri 8 Dec 2023 @ 12.34 EST — TAGS: Cop28 Opec  Oil  Climate crisis  Commodities
    1. The Opec oil cartel has warned its member countries with “utmost urgency” that “pressure against fossil fuels may reach a tipping point with irreversible consequences” at Cop28, in leaked letters seen by the Guardian.
    2. The letters noted that a “fossil fuels phase out” remains on the negotiating table at the UN climate summit and urges the oil states to “proactively reject any text or formula that targets energy, ie fossil fuels, rather than emissions”.
    3. The news agencies Bloomberg and Reuters also reported the news on Friday, saying multiple independent sources had confirmed the documents were genuine, and that Opec had declined to comment. The Guardian has not confirmed the authenticity of the documents and Opec did not respond to the Guardian’s request for comment.
    4. The letters suggest the depth of Opec’s fear that Cop28 could provide a turning point against oil and gas, which they say “put our people’s prosperity and future at risk”. …
    5. ANDREW: OPEC’s concern for the people of its member states is, frankly, understandable, but not numerically or morally enough to outweigh concern for all of the people who have been and will be further impacted by global warming. OPEC members are going to have to learn to accept that the world needs to stop using fossil fuels as much as possible, but that doesn’t mean that the international community should leave OPEC members’ citizens out to dry.
    6. ANDREW: We’ve discussed stories about green energy investment in coal-producing communities in the US before; something similar on an international scale might help get OPEC out of the way of the transition to renewable energy. Even in oil-producing countries where solar or wind power might not be viable, these nations might be able to become major manufacturing centers for parts that these plants will need, or develop world-class training programs in renewable energy operation and design to entice foreign students to learn there and contribute to these nations’ economies. 
    7. ANDREW: A “just transition” for those whose lives rely on fossil fuels is a major component of plans like the Green New Deal. That may be national policy, but I think it can serve as a blueprint for international climate-focused energy policy as well.
    8. MIKE: Oil will be needed for feedstocks and some energy uses for a long time. That’s why I think that Net Zero is a more achievable goal than Zero Emissions.
    9. MIKE: An interesting notion is for the OPEC countries in the Middle East to transition into Green Energy exporters. These countries are mostly desert. What if portions of these lands were covered in solar panels and built into a regional — even transcontinental — power grid? There are plenty of energy-poor nations within reach, and this would generate income to replace at least part of what’s lost from oil and gas exports. Nations that act as energy grid corridors could earn some income from transit fees.
    10. MIKE: Aside from the power potential, there might even be an environmental benefit from creating shade where none currently exists. Most animals need some respite from the sun. Even cold-blooded animals need shade to help regulate their body temperatures.
    11. MIKE: Environmental studies would need to be done, but in an era of global warming, providing shade to shadeless regions could do some good. And then there’s the energy and economic benefits provided.
    12. ANDREW: Well, as we discussed back in July, even deserts are ecosystems, and building in them still has environmental and ecological concerns. If not because of living things in the desert, then birds flying overhead might mistake solar panels for pools of water, with disastrous results. But there may be stretches of sand so desolate that the ecological concerns are minimal.
    13. ANDREW: A solid option might be solar panel shades in human environs, though. Lots of open-air parking lots just let the sun beat down on their occupants — erecting a metal cover and installing solar panels could help both generate electricity and keep folks from getting sunburn.
    14. MIKE: Or we could do both.
14. COP28: 5 big takeaways on a historic climate agreement; by Saul Elbein and Rachel Frazin | THEHILL.COM | 12/13/23 6:22 PM ET. Tags Jean Su John Kerry
    1. The roller coaster of this year’s United Nations Climate Conference (COP28) has ended with a historic new agreement: For the first time, world governments have said countries should transition away from fossil fuels.
    2. The deal comes after days of tense negotiations, especially over the fossil fuel language, which caused the Dubai conference to stretch into overtime.
    3. Climate advocates have praised it as a step forward, but also raised concerns about potential loopholes in its language and criticized it for not going further as the climate crisis deepens — and fossil fuel production continues to increase.
    4. Here are five takeaways from the decision reached Wednesday:
    5. Nations commit to transitioning from fossil fuels — The nearly 200 countries that are parties to the agreement approved language calling for “transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems.”
    6. This is significantly stronger than language used in past years’ decisions, which simply called for reducing the use of coal whose emissions are not captured and did not call for reductions in oil and gas at all. 
    7. “The message coming out of this COP is: We are moving away from fossil fuels. We’re not turning back,” U.S. climate envoy John Kerry told reporters. 
    8. This outcome was hard fought. Many nations were calling for a “phase out” — or eventual elimination — of fossil fuels, but others preferred to simply reduce the use of the planet-heating fuels. 
    9. Ultimately the language they landed on is ambiguous — it’s not totally clear whether a “transition away” means moving away from the fuels entirely or just partially.
    10. Member states were clearer on what they were transitioning toward: They agreed to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030 — a move the International Energy Agency (IEA) says is vital to secure a safe climate — and to double energy efficiency. …
    11. Island nations, developing countries and climate activists say it’s not enough — Island nations, developing countries and climate activists all expressed dissatisfaction with the decision. 
    12. Anne Rasmussen, the delegate from Samoa, part of a group of small island nations that are particularly vulnerable to climate change, called the decision an ‘incremental advancement over business as usual” but said what is needed is “exponential change.”
    13. She lamented that there was no call to peak emissions by 2025, which small island countries see as vital to protect their nations from being swamped by rising seas.
    14. She also said that a group of island nations were literally not even in the room when the decision was adopted. …
    15. Some additional criticism stemmed from the failure to secure an explicit commitment to eliminate fossil fuels — as opposed to just moving away from them — as well as what advocates see as loopholes in the text.
    16. [Jean Su, energy justice director at the Center for Biological Diversity,] pointed to the language applying the call to transition away from fossil fuels particularly to “energy systems,” leaving other uses open.
    17. “That allows for plastics and other non-energy forms of fossil fuels to still proliferate,” she said. 
    18. MIKE: I might note here that complaining about a problem is easy. Suggesting a solution is hard. For example, what might replace plastics that won’t create some other environmental damage? Going on …
    19. She also pointed to language in the decision that “recognizes that transitional fuels can play a role in facilitating the energy transition” — noting that many countries consider natural gas to fall under this category. …
    20. While renewables like wind and solar cost less than gas overall — even when the cost of climate change isn’t factored in — that money has to be paid up front, while countries can buy gas tanker by tanker. …
    21. Because the rule is not binding, questions surround action — While the text calls for a transition away from fossil fuels, the agreement relies on member governments to take concrete action to meet it — and it remains an open question how much action they will actually take. 
    22. Nathan Hultman, who previously worked on international climate issues for the Biden administration, acknowledged that the responsibility now lies with national governments. …
    23. Hultman pointed to the Paris Agreement — under which countries agreed to try to keep the average global temperature increase to less than 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) — saying that the similarly tough-to-enforce 2015 agreement “substantially accelerated action across the world.”
    24. Others were more skeptical. 
    25. Morgan Bazilian, who attended the conference as part of the Irish delegation, told The Hill he doesn’t think countries will “make large investment or policy or regulatory decisions because of that language” calling for a transition away from fossil fuels. 
    26. One particular concern point was the failure to agree to end subsidies for fossil fuels, even as negotiators identified the fuels as the principal source of the chemicals warming the planet. 
    27. In 2022, the sixth-hottest year on record, world governments for the first time spent more than $1 trillion on subsidiesto the fossil fuel industry, according to the IEA.
    28. In the ultimate deal, member nations agreed to phase out “inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that do not address energy poverty or just transitions, as soon as possible” — terms that experts say leave vast wiggle room for subsidies to remain. …
    29. Deal calls for limiting warming as world heads toward dangerous threshold — Ahead of COP28, the U.N. released a reportfinding that the world was on track to warm by an average of about 2.9 degrees Celsius (5.2 degrees Fahrenheit) — nearly double the goal that climate scientists believe would prevent the worst effects of climate change. 
    30. At the summit, global leaders were tasked with taking stock of their progress and looking to do more. 
    31. The final text notes that limiting warming to 1.5 degrees “requires deep, rapid and sustained reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions” including cutting emissions 43 percent by 2030 and 60 percent by 2035 compared to 2019 levels. …
    32. Hultman, who is now the director of the University of Maryland’s Center for Global Sustainability, said that the ultimate decision text provides a “good set of guiding ideas” as countries work on their 2035 climate targets. 
    33. “Having this global conversation is part of the overall guidance that countries can be thinking about and they will be now trying to better understand their pathways to higher ambition in the 2035 period,” he said. 
    34. Challenges loom for the US — While the U.S. has passed significant climate legislation and taken regulatory actions to limit greenhouse gasses under the Biden administration, the goals set by the agreement could mean even more work to do. 
    35. President Biden, in a written statement, celebrated the agreement, and particularly its call for a transition away from fossil fuels, as a “historic milestone.”
    36. “While there is still substantial work ahead of us to keep the 1.5 degree C goal within reach, today’s outcome puts us one significant step closer,” he said in a written statement. 
    37. Kerry, the U.S. climate envoy, praised the U.S. for “leading the charge on the home front” through the Biden administration’s signature 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the 2021 Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. The IRA is a major climate bill with significant subsidies for renewables that was only supported by Democrats. He also pointed toward billions of dollars of U.S. funding to cut emissions and boost clean energy at home and abroad. 
    38. Yet many hurdles still remain for getting more renewables onto the U.S. grid. 
    39. And while the country has taken steps aimed at reducing its own reliance on fossil fuels, drilling in the U.S. is currently at an all-time high, and it has made decisions that are expected to expand the use of the fuels globally.
    40. Under the COP process, however, progress on national climate targets is focused on emissions that directly occur in a certain country — rather than those that come from oil produced in one country and used in another.
    41. Because of this, Hultman said, “there’s not an inherent conflict between us having deep emissions reduction goals in the US and achieving them” while continuing to produce oil and gas for export. 
    42. But he said that ultimately the nation would have to specifically address its own oil and gas production.
    43. One specific wrinkle in doing so, however, is the peculiar structure of the U.S. oil and gas industry, which is dominated by private companies choosing whether or not to drill on privately owned lands. 
    44. That separates the U.S. from countries like Russia, Brazil or the United Arab Emirates where publicly owned oil companies control the industry. …
    45. But many of these questions may become moot if Republicans win control in 2024. 
    46. While a handful of Republican congressional members went to Dubai to participate in the climate conference, the party as a whole has been hostile to the COP process — and to the broader goal of moving off fossil fuels. 
    47. Republicans have also repeatedly attempted to strip green energy tax credits and pass resolutions repealing climate regulations. 
    48. House Resolution 1, the GOP’s signature energy package, would zero out the Environmental Protection Agency’s Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund, a “green bank” aimed at promoting clean energy, as well as fees on fossil fuel companies’ release of methane, a planet-warming chemical dozens of times more potent than carbon dioxide.
    49. And while the climate solutions Republicans promoted at the summit have some overlap with Democrats’ plans to scale up clean energy supply chains, they also rely heavily on nuclear and natural gas.
    50. Meanwhile, former President Trump, who is currently the front-runner for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination and who pulled the U.S. out of the 2015 Paris Agreement during his time in the White House, has been telling crowds that he would be “a dictator” on “day one” of his presidency, at which point he promised to use his executive power to promote “drilling, drilling, drilling” for fossil fuels.
    51. But Kerry noted that — even with Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement factored in — the world was still making vital progress.
    52. At the time of the 2015 deal — which he attended as then-President Obama’s secretary of State — “the world was headed toward as much as 4 degrees [Celsius] of warming,” Kerry said.
    53. “So it is a privilege to be here, eight years later … with nations around the world committed to taking the actions necessary to keep 1.5 C alive.”
    54. ANDREW: A mixed bag. Some encouraging things, some worrying things. I think this article, taken with the OPEC article, underscores that while capitalism may have the power to avert climate disaster, it’s really a question of whether it has the will to. A socioeconomic system built upon personal enrichment at others’ expense is not a solid foundation for cooperation and self-sacrifice for the benefit of others.
    55. ANDREW: I think there is still a chance that global warming may be stopped under capitalism, if for no other reason than self-preservation — one of the purest forms of personal enrichment. I don’t know how significant that chance is, or whether it’s getting bigger or smaller. But I, personally, do still believe that limiting consumption until renewables are ready to take over from fossil fuels is going to be necessary to achieve that, and that socialism (in really any of its many forms) would allow humanity a much stronger will to make that happen equitably.
    56. MIKE: “Limiting consumption” is another way of saying “greater efficiency”. Greater efficiency can be a way for businesses to save money or make a more attractive product that out-competes the others. Limiting consumption through greater efficiency can also be accomplished through government incentives and disincentives.
    57. MIKE: Right now, the biggest obstacle we have in achieving these things is nihilistic political parties and politicians that seem to be dead set — no pun intended — on turning Earth into Venus.
15. ‘Not conducive to our survival’: Pacific islands on the climate frontline respond to Cop28 deal; The agreement was hailed as a win for climate action, but Pacific campaigners say it is too little too late in a rapidly warming world. By Sera Sefeti | THEGUARDIAN.COM | Tue 19 Dec 2023 14.00 EST — Last modified on Tue 19 Dec 2023 20.57 EST
    1. MIKE: We‘ll try to cover this properly next week.

 

 

 

 

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