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POSSIBLE TOPICS: Primary Runoff Elections’ Info, Scheduled For May 28^th; From taxes to cuts, here’s what Houston’s budget proposal could bring; Mayor Whitmire unveils $6.7 billion proposed budget for new year – with no tax hikes or garbage fee; Houston ISD superintendent accused of funneling tax dollars out of state; Galveston County redistricting case draws divide among federal appeals court judges; Democrats call for special session in letter to Gov. Greg Abbott after drastic school budget cuts; ‘My whole library is wiped out’: what it means to own movies and TV in the age of streaming services; U.S. offers aid as Zelensky drops foreign trip due to Russian advance; In Talks With Putin, Xi Hails ‘Powerful Driving Force’ of Cooperation; “Convince us to stay”: U.S.-China ties see head-spinning shift; U.S. Accuses Chinese Hackers of Targeting Critical Infrastructure in America; China’s economy is headed for a ‘dead-end,’ and Beijing won’t do anything to stop it, scholar says; China vows to safeguard its territorial integrity after South China Sea incident; US Commander Warns China Is Fast Becoming More Aggressive in Region; 

Welcome to Thinkwing Radio with Mike Honig where we discuss local, state, national, and international stories. My co-host, assistant producer and show editor is Andrew Ferguson.

Thinkwing Radio with Mike Honig (@ThinkwingRadio) is now on Wednesdays at 11AM (CT) or Thursdays at 6PM on KPFT 90.1 FM-HD2, Houston’s Community Media. You can also hear the show:

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Except for timely election info, the extensive list of voting resources will now be at the end.

Welcome to Thinkwing Radio with Mike Honig on KPFT Houston at 90.1 FM-HD2, Galveston 89.5-HD2 and Huntsville 89.7-HD2. KPFT is Houston’s Community Media. On this show, we discuss local, state, national, and international stories that may have slipped under your radar.

1. If you thought your work (or efforts to ignore) voting in elections was over, I have unfortunate news. There are still primary runoff elections scheduled for May 28^th.
   1. You may not recall, but we had Primary Elections on March 5^th of this year, and now it’s time for the runoffs from those primaries.
   2. I actually received my mail-in ballot for the May 28^th runoff before the May 5^th election, so you may already have yours. If not, DO apply for one ASAP if eligible. If you should have gotten one, check with your election clerk’s or country clerk’s office and check on it.
   3. I have now mailed in my May 28^th
   4. In Harris County, Early Vote Centers will be open from Monday, May 20, through Friday, May 24. (7 a.m. – 7 p.m.)
   5. Vote Centers will accept voters from 7 a.m. – 7 p.m. on Election Day, Tuesday, May 28.
   6. If you live in Harris County, visit the “What’s on my Ballot?” page and enter your name and address to see all the contests and candidates you are eligible to vote on! (You can bring handwritten notes or printed sample ballots to the voting booth; just be sure to take them with you when you leave.)
   7. If you live in a county adjacent to Harris, you can go to the very bottom of this show post at ThinkwingRadio[dot]Com for the clerk office link for your county. If that link is broken, please let me know.
   8. Harris County election information is available at HarrisVotes(dot)com.
   9. In Harris County, you can check on the status of your mail-in ballot at Mail Ballot Tracking. I’ve provided a link.
   10. A list of election day polling places can be found at the link I’m providing.
   11. Links to county election sites for Harris and adjacent counties can be found at the bottom of this week’s show post.
2. From taxes to cuts, here’s what Houston’s budget proposal could bring; By Nick Natario | ABC13.COM | Monday, May 13, 2024 @ 9:13PM. TAGS: POLITICS, HOUSTON, BUDGET, HOUSTON POLITICS, HOUSTON CITY COUNCIL,
   1. After painting a dire financial picture, Houston Mayor John Whitmire will roll out his first proposed budget.
   2. Whitmire didn’t mince words about the city’s finances earlier this year.
   3. “We’re broke,” Whitmire said in March.
   4. On Tuesday, he’ll be looking to change this. Whitmire will unveil his first budget proposal.
   5. It’s a plan that budget committee vice chair Mario Castillo wants to see. …
   6. The city faces a deficit that could be as high as nearly $300 million. Castillo has yet to see Whitmire’s proposal.
   7. However, he believes there won’t be a trash fee this year. …
   8. He believes Whitmire could look to increase property taxes.
   9. “I’d be interested to see if they’re a part of this,” Castillo said.
   10. Council members have also explored the idea of increasing fees, including extending the parking meter times downtown.
   11. Whitmire asked some city departments to decrease their budgets by 5%. On Monday, Eyewitness News asked them what that could mean.
   12. The departments pointed ABC13 to the mayor’s spokesperson, who sent the following statement: “The request to identify 5% was a tool and a starting point for department directors to review staffing, savings, and efficiencies. The mayor recognizes they are not all the same, and some departments, including Solid Waste and Parks, are understaffed and cannot afford to cut personnel and continue to provide efficient and timely services to the public. The mayor will make additional comments tomorrow at the news conference.”
   13. One department that could see a large increase is the fire department. The mayor struck a contract deal earlier this year to give raises and back pay.
   14. The city attorney said the plan is to use a loan and pay it back over time. He said it could cost taxpayers more than $1 billion over several years.
   15. In addition to back pay, the agreement permanently makes the temporary 18 pay increases awarded to firefighters three years ago and gives them a 10% raise in the new budget.
   16. Castillo said council members are still waiting for specifics on how the city will afford the plan.
   17. [Castillo explained that,] “The urgency around seeing the documents is high. The sooner we can dig through those details, the better we will have an understanding of what this agreement actually means.” …
   18. The city council will vote on a budget by the end of next month. It’ll take effect on July 1.
   19. Before it does, it wants to hear from Houstonians. Four budget town halls will take place across the city, with the first being Thursday.
   20. “If we know that communities are really interested in or want to see a particular thing continue, that helps us make those decisions,” Castillo explained.
   21. There’s also a survey where neighbors can voice their opinion.
   22. MIKE: That was Monday’s story … The one I was going to discuss. It’s now a little outdated, but the details here are still useful for examining Tuesday’s updated budget story without getting too redundant.
3. Mayor Whitmire unveils $6.7 billion proposed budget for new year – with no tax hikes or garbage fee; By Yilun Cheng, Staff writer | HOUSTONCHRONICLE.COM | May 14, 2024. TAGS: Mayor John Whitmire, Houston City Budget,
   1. … Mayor John Whitmire unveiled a $6.7 billion budget proposal Tuesday, announcing he does not intend to raise taxes or significantly cut city services during the fiscal year starting in July.
   2. The proposed budget, the first of Whitmire’s tenure, features a 7% increase from last year’s plan. It includes additional costs from the $1.5 billion firefighters’ settlement and likely pay raises for municipal workers. It does not, however, account for the approximately $100 million fiscal impact from an April court ruling concerning the city’s drainage system.
   3. Whitmire’s administration previously floated the idea of a property tax hike and a garbage fee to close the existing budget gap of around $160 million and help fund the firefighters’ deal. But the mayor said these measures will not be considered in the upcoming year. Instead, the city plans to use the remaining COVID-19 federal funds to close the deficit, which he said he inherited from former Mayor Sylvester Turner’s administration.
   4. MIKE: There is more detail in this article, and you can click on the link I provide in my show post and read the rest. But I’m going to stop here because I have some life background that I think applies to this situation.
   5. MIKE: I’m going to take a long detour here, but bear with me. I promise I’ll circle back to my point on Whitmire’s budget.
   6. MIKE: I moved to Houston from New York City in September of 1977. That was about the time that New York was going through some horrible fiscal problems.
   7. MIKE: I’m going to do a sidebar here to say again that I hate comparing government finances to personal or business finances and sometimes rant against it. Those are NOT the same thing as government fiscal policy and should not be used as models for government fiscal policy. But forgive me if I flex that rule just a little as I proceed.
   8. MIKE: In the late 1970s, aside from stagflation and recession that was causing a significant drop in tax revenues that were driving many cities and even some states close to literal bankruptcy, New York City had been engaged in an unsustainable fiscal shell game that also became a lifelong model to me of how NOT to manage your personal finances.
   9. MIKE: The lesson was this: You cannot make a regular habit of borrowing money for routine ongoing expenses in order to balance a budget. That is not the same thing as borrowing money for a capital improvement like buying a house or — in the case of a government — building roads or housing. If you — or a government — continually borrow money to pay for routine expenses, and if you can’t metaphorically print more money the way a national sovereign can, sooner or later your debt and the corresponding interest expenses become unsustainable. New York got into this fix because as tax revenues dwindled for lots of reasons, they didn’t have the political courage to cut spending or raise taxes in some way or other.
   10. MIKE: For New York City, their ultimate proximity to fiscal disaster and their pleas to the federal government for help — and New York City was never a popular destination for federal help — gave rise to what became a historic NY Daily News Headline: “Ford to City: Drop Dead.” President Ford never said that in those exact words, but it made a historically catchy headline, to which I’ve linked.
   11. MIKE: I’m going to resume the story with this bit: … Houston has long struggled with a structural deficit, where recurring expenses outstrip revenues. The city has previously tried to cover the gap with one-time revenues like land sales and maintenance deferrals.
   12. In recent years, Turner’s administration used federal COVID-19 relief funds to amass the largest budget reserve the city has seen in decades. [Finance Director Melissa Dubowski] recently estimated Houston would have a fund balance of $468 million by the end of [this] fiscal year, $282 million above the legally required minimum.
   13. MIKE: Getting back to the point … Whitmire has punted on making hard choices about tax increases or spending cuts, or some mixture of both. Instead, he’s decided to use up a source of reserve funds that might be needed as a transition to whatever hard choices will now have to be made anyway, come the next budget.
   14. MIKE: To borrow a phrase from Jonathan Swift, I actually have a modest proposal for additional tax revenue that will be unpopular in a resolutely flat-tax state like Texas, but might be helpful, and I’ve suggested it before. We should have a progressive property tax that escalates on properties of, say, $1 million and above.
   15. MIKE: That would have the benefit of sparing the budgets of Houstonians of modest means while making only a modest *DING* in the finances of people who can afford houses worth a million dollars or more, and it could make a big difference in the city’s finances and preservation of essential services. This could then be indexed for inflation to prevent what is called “bracket creep”. This would be more palatable to the average voter than to the people in these houses, but I occasionally believe in the goodness of human nature and don’t think it would cause excessive fuss to fair-minded rich folks.
   16. MIKE: If you like this idea, remember: Elections have consequences.
   17. REFERENCE: Infamous ‘Drop Dead’ Was Never Said by Ford — NYTIMES.COM | 2006-DEC-28
   18. REFERENCE: A Modest Proposal for Preventing the Children of Poor People from Being a Burthen to Their Parents or Country, and for Making Them Beneficial to the Publick, by Jonathan Swift—Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
4. Houston ISD superintendent accused of funneling tax dollars out of state; By Nina Banks | TEXASTRIBUNE.ORG | May 14, 2024. TAGS: Texas Education Agency, TEA Commissioner Mike Morath, HISD Superintendent Mike Miles,
   1. A state lawmaker and Houston teachers are calling for Houston Independent School District Superintendent Mike Miles to be investigated after a Spectrum News report revealed that millions in Texas public school tax dollars may have been funneled to a failing school in his Colorado charter school system.
   2. These findings come less than two weeks after the state-appointed administrator announced a $450 million gap in funding at HISD — resulting in districtwide layoffs for the upcoming school year.
   3. A Texas Education Agency spokesperson said agency officials are “aware of the report and are reviewing the matter.” …
   4. Spectrum News reported on Monday that the Third Future Schools charter school network, based in Colorado and founded by Miles, was using funds from the network’s Odessa school to offset losses at its Aurora, Colorado school. Miles’ sister now runs Third Future Schools.
   5. Spectrum also reported that Miles received $40,000 last year consulting for Third Future Schools, which was dealing with deep financial setbacks leading to the closure of a Colorado school and $5 million in unpaid debt. …
   6. … Spectrum News reported in its monthslong investigation … reported that the three Texas schools received $25 million in taxpayer dollars. About $15 million went to teachers and staff. But another $10 million was listed by Third Future Schools as unspecified administrative costs. Subsequent public documents obtained by Spectrum News revealed that more than $2 million went from Third Future Schools’ Texas operation to help cover losses at a Colorado school.
   7. In a letter addressed to Morath, State Rep. Ana Hernandez, D-Houston, urged the state agency to conduct an investigation to clarify whether Texas public school tax dollars had been sent out of state….
   8. Jackie Anderson, president of the Houston Federation of Teachers, accused Miles of using the tax dollars as his own “personal piggy bank,” echoing Hernandez’s request for an immediate investigation.
   9. “The corruption of this deal stretches beyond just Mike Miles – the board of managers is also complicit in this shadowy scheme by failing to provide oversight and transparency,” she said. “Greg Abbott’s takeover of our schools has failed. Teachers, students and their families deserve better and in response we are demanding the immediate resignation of Mike Miles and the immediate exit of the TEA from HISD.”
   10. MIKE: You may have heard that Charter schools are 501(c)3 non-profits for IRS purposes, but shrewd businesspeople have ways of making money from non-profits, such as sweetheart consulting deals, for example.
   11. MIKE: This should be an interesting story to follow.
5. In Texas State news — Galveston County redistricting case draws divide among federal appeals court judges; By William Melhado | TEXASTRIBUNE.ORG | May 14, 2024. TAGS: 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, Galveston County (TX), 1965 Voting Rights Act,
   1. A full panel of federal appellate court judges was split over whether a coalition of voters of color should be afforded the same protections under the Voting Rights Act as a single group of protected citizens during Tuesday’s oral arguments over a Galveston County redistricting case.
   2. The hearing before the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals was not tasked with determining if Galveston County commissioners discriminated against Black and Latino voters by dismantling a district made of a majority of voters of color. Rather, the judges are considering whether a coalition of Black and Latino voters should be granted the same protections as a single racial or language minority group under the 1965 Voting Rights Act.
   3. Some appellate judges on Tuesday warned that extending protections to groups of minority voters would result in an avalanche of discrimination claims.
   4. But others were open to including coalitions in the Voting Rights Act as a means of preventing voter dilution.
   5. “What the Supreme Court has said is that the Voting Rights Act should be interpreted in a manner that provides the broadest scope possible in combating racial discrimination,” Judge Dana Douglas said.
   6. The original case stems from the question of whether local officials violated the rights of Black and Latino voters when they redrew a precinct of the Galveston County Commissioners Court primarily composed of voters of color. …
   7. Judge Edith Brown Clement said this interpretation would extend the precedent set by Thornburg v. Gingles, a 1986 Supreme Court case that affirmed that a North Carolina redistricting plan had unlawfully discriminated against Black voters. If the Justice Department’s interpretation of coalition was correct, then the Supreme Court would have stated so in previous rulings, Clement said.
   8. “If it was obvious, the supremes would have said, ‘Oh, this is what it is,’” she said.
   9. Riley argued that the question at the heart of that case did not consider the question of coalition voters and that the Supreme Court has not clearly ruled on this issue.
   10. Clement said it appears that the world has changed “from a racial standpoint” in the decades since the federal voting law was passed.
   11. “If we allow coalitions, there will be more claims, will there not?” Clements asked. She suggested it would cause chaos for legislatures attempting to draw district maps.
   12. Clement also questioned the League of United Latin American Citizens’ ability to represent Hispanic voters in Texas as polls show Latino voters are increasingly moving to the right. A University of Houston survey published in January found a majority of Texas Latino voters support former Republican President Donald Trump over President Joe Biden, a Democrat. Recent census numbers show that Latinos officially make up the biggest share of the Texas population. …
   13. [Referring in the story to an earlier ruling in consideration here,] … Joseph Nixon, the lawyer for Galveston County, argued that the Voting Rights Act was written to only bar discrimination against a single group of voters, such as Black or Latino Americans. If the court allowed the coalition argument to stand, Nixon considered, then what is there to stop groups from “stacking” different pockets of voters of color to achieve certain political outcomes.
   14. But judges took issue with this interpretation, considering the realities of mixed-race Americans who belong to more than one racial group.
   15. “You’re creating a rule that will ask the impossible racially, both for people who have mixed minorities or for mixed groups that have different interests,” Judge Stephen Higginson said. “What happens to an Afro-Latino [American]? Does that person have to choose which minority interests they affiliate with to get protection?” …
   16. MIKE: First a standard disclaimer: I am not a lawyer. That being said, I found the one judge’s worry over “an avalanche of discrimination claims” as a reason to consider disqualifying the coalition claim of discrimination to be ludicrous on its face. By that logic, the virtue of a claim should not be considered on its merits, but rather on how many cases of merit might subsequently be brought.
   17. MIKE: And the question of whether League of United Latin American Citizens has standing to bring the suit based on polling showing that a majority of Latinos might be leaning more conservative is totally irrelevant. Political preference is not at issue here. The only real question is deliberate disenfranchisement by dilution of voting power.
   18. MIKE: The Tribune story has a lot more detail and a lot more background, but I think these are the basic issues being reported. As usual, if you want to read the rest, I’ve provided a link to the original story in this show’s blog post at ThinkwingRadio[dot]com.
6. Democrats call for special session in letter to Gov. Greg Abbott after drastic school budget cuts, ByTom Abrahams | ABC13.COM | Monday, May 13, 2024 @ 7:15PM. TAGS: POLITICS, HOUSTON, TEXAS, TEXAS POLITICS, EDUCATION, TEXAS NEWS, SCHOOL FUNDING, BUDGET CUTS, HISD, SCHOOL BOARD, HOUSTON POLITICS, SCHOOL BUDGET, SCHOOL CUTS,
   1. Houston ISD announced drastic cuts last week, but other districts are in financial trouble, too. It’s a statewide problem, and [Democratic] State Representative Jon Rosenthal said it needs a statewide solution.
   2. “You will see terrible cuts,” Rosenthal said. “Terrible budget cuts in school districts all over the state. If we don’t do something about it and do something about it quickly, public education in the State of Texas will suffer. Our 5 million children in public schools will not get the benefit of the education that they deserve. “
   3. That’s why he sent a letter to Texas Gov. Greg Abbott on Monday asking for a special session.
   4. He asked for an increase to the state’s basic allotment, the per-student funding formula, which has stayed the same since 2019. He also wants an increase in the school safety allotment.
   5. Rosenthal said at least 40 lawmakers have also signed his letter. Though many of them also backed a bill last October that would have raised the basic allotment, it got no traction.
   6. On Monday afternoon, after a request for comment from ABC13, Abbott sent a letter back to Rosenthal.
   7. He writes that Democrats who signed Rosenthal’s request voted against a school funding bill last session that would have added $6 billion. He writes that his “commitment to improving public schools is just as resolute” as Rosenthal’s.
   8. [The] bill Abbott references was a House Bill that would have also funded education savings accounts, otherwise called a voucher or school choice program. While it passed the House, the education savings account portion was killed by an amendment.
   9. The governor also cites lower enrollment and a loss of federal COVID-19 dollars as the reasons for any shortfalls.
   10. Last week, ABC13 reported a survey in which 80% of districts declared budget concerns, more than half have a deficit, and 43% expect significant cuts next year.
   11. It does not seem that Abbott is interested in a special session, but Rosenthal remains hopeful.
   12. “If we could get tons of people to pressure the state, pressure the governor, and their own representatives to take measures to fortify our public education system, that would improve our chances,” Rosenthal said.
   13. Only the governor can call a special legislative session and set the agenda. The next regular session doesn’t begin until January 2025.
   14. MIKE: Republicans have been waging a decades-long fight against public education. A fight that may actually extend as far back as free public education’s inception. And that fight is waged nowhere more fiercely than in Texas.
   15. MIKE: The last time the basic allotment was changed was in 2019, so there’s been 5 years of inflation between then and now. What a dollar bought in 2019 would now require about $1.22.
   16. MIKE: Greg Abbott is dead set on creating a voucher system that will essentially defund public schools to send money to private schools and even religious schools, each with their own agendas built into their curricula. At the same time, by preventing an increase in the Basic Allotment, Abbott is already effectively shrinking school budgets by about 20%. So as Abbott well knows, in the bill Abbott referenced in his response, he allowed an increase in the basic allotment only if he could get legislators to swallow the poison pill of school vouchers. That was apparently a devil’s bargain that the State House bipartisanly rejected. And that pissed off Abbott and other very Rightwing Republicans a bunch.
   17. MIKE: A slogan of this show is that “an educated electorate is a prerequisite for a democracy.” A well-educated electorate would recognize the danger our democracy is in. The current Republican MAGA Party has drifted so far to the right that the national party is practically advocating an American form of fascism. On the national level, they have formulated a plan called the 2025 Project, to be enacted if the Republicans — whether it’s Trump or someone else — win the White House in 2024.
   18. MIKE: I know I nag listeners to vote. I know it may sometimes be more irksome than informative. But elections always have consequences, and that’s the reminder I always mean to give along with whatever current election information I can offer.
   19. REFERENCE: The 2025 Presidential Transition Project — From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
7. In international news in Australia, an unusual segue, but an important one — ‘My whole library is wiped out’: what it means to own movies and TV in the age of streaming services; Ownership rights are buried in the fine print and downloading or buying physical copies may be the only ways to keep your favourites. By Josh Taylor | THEGUARDIAN.COM | Mon 13 May 2024 11.00 EDT / Last modified on Mon 13 May 2024 18.12 EDT. TAGS: Australian media, TV streaming, Internet, Consumer rights, Music streaming, BitTorrent, Piracy, features,
   1. What rights do you have to the digital movies, TV shows and music you buy online?
   2. That question was on the minds of Telstra TV Box Office customers this month after the company announced it would shut down the service in June. Customers were told that unless they moved over to another service, Fetch, they would no longer be able to access the films and TV shows they had bought.
   3. This isn’t simply a case of Netflix removing Friends from the service when a content agreement runs out. These were films and shows people had bought with the expectation they could watch them whenever they wanted – indefinitely.
   4. Vicki Russell posted on X last week saying she was being asked by Telstra to pay $200 for Fetch to retain access to what she said was $2,500-worth of purchases.
   5. “Years and years of purchasing movies and my whole library is just wiped out. What a [dirty] thing to do,” she posted. … [MIKE: I substituted the word “dirty”. Moving on …]
   6. A spokesperson for Telstra said it was a rights issue, which meant customers had to move to a similar content service to keep accessing the content. Customers had not been able to make new purchases since the end of September last year, the spokesperson said, with customers being migrated to Fetch since December. …
   7. In the age of VHS, DVDs and Blu-ray, when someone bought a movie from a store, it was theirs for as long as it was playable. And even in the digital era before streaming, people could – and generally still can – buy files of movies, TV shows and music. Barring the digital rights management locks some companies placed on those files, you could generally continue to play them for as long as you had a player that could read them.
   8. Now firmly in the streaming age, ownership is largely subject to the terms and conditions people often do not read, [said Shaanan Cohney, a lecturer in computing and information systems at Melbourne University.]
   9. “Whenever you click to purchase or rent content online, there’s always a box somewhere saying terms and conditions apply – just like with everything else you do online.
   10. “It is not reasonable to expect consumers to read these terms and conditions [but] in the case of Telstra TV box office, they had a whole section on how they were able to withdraw content.” …
   11. [MIKE: There is then some specific discussion of the terms and conditions we all agree to, mostly without reading, that are included in digital stuff we buy from Amazon and Apple, among pretty much all others.]
   12. Some video game companies and music and movie services allow you to download a copy that doesn’t require a permanent connection to the owner of the service provider or the media owner, [Cohney] said.
   13. “Another approach is to indeed purchase physical copies.” …
   14. MIKE: I’m a somewhat advanced Luddite. I buy my music, movies and TV shows on physical media. I buy my books mostly for download, so they’re digital, but I have my own digital copy on my device.
   15. MIKE: I once lost a lifetime of books and discs in a housefire, so I rationalize the potential loss of digital media as just another hazard like fires, floods, hard drive crashes, and divorce. It can be exceedingly painful, but ultimately survivable.
   16. MIKE: The moral of this story as always is caveat emptor; buyer beware. But no matter how much you know, you can still get screwed. That’s life.
   17. MIKE: You can read more in the original story I’ve linked to. I’m also including links to some related some I wrote more than a decade ago. You may also peruse that if you wish.
   18. REFERENCE: HarperCollins, a division of Murdoch’s NewsCorp, Wants Library Book to Self-Destruct!
   19. REFERENCE: Boston prep school nixes all the books in its library, replaces them with 18 e-readers
   20. REFERENCE: E-Books Won’t Catch On Until …
8. S. offers aid as Zelensky drops foreign trip due to Russian advance; By Michael Birnbaum | WASHINGTONPOST.COM | Updated May 15, 2024 at 6:12 p.m. EDT | Published May 15, 2024 at 12:35 p.m. EDT. TAGS: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Kharkiv,
   1. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Wednesday scrapped a planned trip to Spain in order to stay in his capital and address Russia’s expanding front-line assault, his spokesman said, a measure of the rapidly increasing anxieties over the Kremlin’s military advances in recent days.
   2. The decision came as Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced another $2 billion in U.S. military aid as he wrapped a two-day visit to Ukraine that was intended to demonstrate Washington’s continued support for the war-hit country.
   3. Blinken’s trip was planned before Russia’s weekend advances on Ukraine’s second-largest city, Kharkiv. But it also served to highlight the lingering consequences of Washington’s seven-month delay in approving more military aid for Ukraine. Stocks of artillery shells and other long-range munitions have run perilously low, leaving Ukrainian troops on the back foot.
   4. “Every delay of supply results in setbacks on the front line. This is the general rule,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told reporters Wednesday, speaking alongside Blinken after the two met each other. “When a Ukrainian infantryman or artilleryman has everything that he or she needs, we are winning,” he said. “Every time there are delays in supplies and insufficient supplies, we are not winning. The law of war is cruel but very clear.” …
   5. But even as he announced the new assistance, Blinken said that the Biden administration remained opposed to allowing Ukraine to strike targets inside Russian territory with U.S. weaponry — something Ukrainian policymakers have been pushing for with increasing urgency. Russia in recent days has mounted an assault on towns near Kharkiv, which is 25 miles from the border and being hit by weaponry launched from Russian territory.
   6. “We have not encouraged or enabled strikes outside of Ukraine,” Blinken told reporters Wednesday at the end of his visit to Ukraine, his first since September. “But ultimately, Ukraine has to make decisions for itself about how it’s going to conduct this war, a war it is conducting in defense of its freedom, of its sovereignty, of its territorial integrity,” he said.
   7. Standing alongside Kuleba, Blinken added, “And we will continue to back Ukraine with the equipment it needs to succeed.” …
   8. Ukraine has used weaponry supplied by other countries, including Britain, to hit targets on Russian soil, but Blinken indicated no policy change on the part of the United States. The White House has forbidden American equipment from being used to hit Russian territory for fear of inciting a direct military conflict with Moscow, which holds the world’s largest arsenal of nuclear weapons.
   9. That has proved frustrating for Ukraine, especially in recent weeks, as it witnessed a military buildup on Russian territory close to Kharkiv but was severely limited in its ability to strike it. …
   10. Despite the promises of U.S. support, Ukraine’s immediate needs are growing larger and more noticeable. Electricity on Tuesday and Wednesday nights was cut to large parts of Kyiv because of shortages stemming from Russian attacks on energy infrastructure, a foreboding sign for the coming months.
   11. Kuleba, speaking to reporters after the walk with Blinken, said he had pushed the U.S. secretary of state on Ukraine’s urgent defense needs. Zelensky on Tuesday asked Blinken for two Patriot antiaircraft batteries immediately to help defend Kharkiv.
   12. “We looked at the entire inventory that can be accessible, that can be brought to Ukraine,” Kuleba said. The two Patriot batteries for Kharkiv “were necessary yesterday,” he said. …
   13. MIKE: It should be noted that what Blinken said was, “We have not encouraged or enabled strikes outside of Ukraine,” Blinken told reporters Wednesday at the end of his visit to Ukraine, his first since September. “But ultimately, Ukraine has to make decisions for itself about how it’s going to conduct this war …”
   14. MIKE: Obviously, what is said in private between officials of the two countries matters a lot, but public comments can’t be dismissed as unimportant. Blinken’s public remarks are not a categorical “no”. Does this mean that the US is approaching a “yes” in using American weaponry for attacks inside Russia, as the UK. But it could mean at least 2 things: 1) That the US is at least considering softening its position on allowing use of long-range American weapons to strike inside Russia and is preparing public opinion for that possibility, and 2) Blinken’s equivocation on the questions might be a veiled warning to Russia that such a decision could be forthcoming unless certain actions are demonstrated by Russia.
   15. MIKE: It must be noted, however, that whatever those actions may be, or if any have been discussed at all between the two countries, is pure speculation by me.
9. In Talks With Putin, Xi Hails ‘Powerful Driving Force’ of Cooperation; In talks with China’s leader, in Beijing, the Russian president called for stronger economic ties between the countries, as he intensifies his war effort. By David Pierson and Ivan Nechepurenko | NYTIMES.COM | May 16, 2024, 5:33 a.m. ET. TAGS: Russia-Ukraine War, Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping,
   1. With his army making advances in Ukraine and his political grip tightened at home after securing an unprecedented fifth term as president, Vladimir V. Putin of Russia arrived in Beijing on Thursday in search of another win: more support from his “dear friend,” Xi Jinping.
   2. Putin, whose economy remains largely isolated because of Western sanctions over his invasion of Ukraine, relies on Mr. Xi, China’s leader, for diplomatic cover and a financial lifeline, including huge purchases of Russian oil. But Mr. Putin will need more help to sustain his war machine, especially now as his military makes a push near Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, before billions of dollars’ worth of arms arrives from the United States to shore up Ukraine’s depleted forces.
   3. In Beijing, Mr. Putin sought to show that Moscow was deepening its ties with Beijing as a bulwark against Western attempts to contain their countries. “We are working in solidarity on the formulation of a more just and democratic multipolar world order,” he said.
   4. He trumpeted China’s role as Russia’s number one trade partner, highlighted the use of the Russian ruble and the Chinese renminbi currency in the countries’ transactions, and said the sides would strengthen contacts between credit institutions and banks. He also said the leaders discussed working more closely in energy and nuclear power research, though made no mention of a proposed natural gas pipeline to China that Moscow would like to see built.
   5. Xi is committed to his partnership with Mr. Putin, regarding Russia as a critical counterweight to their common rival, the United States. The two leaders share a vision of an alternative world order where autocratic countries like China and Russia can operate free of interference from Washington and its allies. …
   6. Xi hailed ties between their two countries as “a model for a new type of international relations and relations between neighboring major powers.” Key to the relationship, he said, was that the countries “always firmly support each other on issues involving each other’s core interests and major concerns.”
   7. But the Chinese leader is under growing diplomatic and economic pressure from the West to curtail any support that aids Mr. Putin’s war on Ukraine. Failure to do so risks further alienating Europe, a key trading partner needed to help revive China’s beleaguered economy.
   8. The United States has also accused Beijing of aiding the Kremlin’s war efforts by providing satellite intelligence, fighter jet parts, microchips and other dual-use equipment. While visiting Beijing last month, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken also warned of sanctions against Chinese banks that assisted Russia’s war effort. Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen warned of “significant consequences” if Chinese companies provided material support for Russia’s war in Ukraine.
   9. In a statement he read to reporters in Beijing following the talks, Mr. Xi said that he and Mr. Putin discussed the war in Ukraine — which he referred to as a “crisis,” and repeated China’s position, including that the “reasonable security concerns of all parties,” meaning Mr. Putin’s opposition to NATO, should be respected. He said nothing about the warnings from the West.
   10. For Mr. Putin, bolstering China’s support for him in the face of Western pressure is likely a top priority on this visit. …
10. MIKE: I’ll be touching on the relations between China and Russia in my main analysis after the next 4 stories:
11. The following story was originally published 6 weeks ago, but there’s no reason to think it’s not still applicable — “Convince us to stay”: U.S.-China ties see head-spinning shift; By Courtenay Brown | AXIOS.COM | 2024/03/31. TAGS:
    1. For decades, Corporate America has raced to cash in on China‘s economy. Now China officials are in sell-mode, a stunning reversal from years past.
    2. Why it matters: CEOs know the two nations are economically intertwined in a way that can’t easily be undone. But executives are more cautious, a subtle yet significant sign of a power dynamic shift underway between the U.S. and China.
    3. What they’re saying: “Often foreign companies were on the solicitous side, like ‘can you please let us in?,'” Kurt Tong, the former U.S. envoy to Hong Kong, tells Axios.
    4. “Now it’s a little bit more like ‘convince us to stay,'” Tong, who is currently at the Asia Group, adds. …
    5. China’s key goal with CEOs: gin up enthusiasm for investing in China, with Xi playing a role that might have been unthinkable in previous years, when businesses clamored for a presence there. …
    6. The flow of money into China from overseas firms has slowed. For the first time on record, more foreigners yanked funds out of the nation than those that put funds in for a period last year, by one measure.
    7. The latest government data shows foreign direct investment dropped 20% in the first two months of the year, compared to the same time in 2023. …
    8. China’s economic prospects currently look grim, with sluggish demand and a property crisis weighing on the economy.
    9. National security concerns and abrupt regulatory crackdowns have also undermined confidence.
    10. “It was: ‘China is the world’s second largest economy, you have to do business there,” hedge fund manager and famed investor Kyle Bass tells Axios.
    11. “Well, now Xi Jinping has shown you he can just turn industries off.” …
    12. Despite the current rough patch, multinational firms won’t willingly ditch the nation completely — a side effect of the deep economic ties between the U.S. and China.
    13. MIKE: This is an interesting turn of events. China used to be the go-to for inexpensive manufacturing. But now internal Chinese policy shifts as well geopolitics is changing this equation. International offshore manufacturing is now diversifying out of China in order for companies to better insulate themselves from political financial shocks.
    14. MIKE: It will be interesting in the long term to see how this ultimately resolves, from both financial and geopolitical perspectives.
12. US Accuses Chinese Hackers of Targeting Critical Infrastructure in America; The Treasury Department imposed sanctions on the hackers, who they said were working as a front for Beijing’s top spy agency. By David E. Sanger and Alan Rappeport, Reporting from Washington | NYTIMES.COM | March 25, 2024 / Updated 1:36 p.m. ET. TAGS:
    1. The United States imposed sanctions on Chinese hackers on Monday [March 25] and accused them of working as a front for Beijing’s top spy agency, part of a broad effort to place malware in American electric grids, water systems and other critical infrastructure.
    2. The sanctions were a major escalation of what has become an increasingly heated contest between the Biden administration and Beijing.
    3. While there have been no cases so far in which the Chinese government has turned off essential services, American intelligence agencies have warned in recent months that the malware appeared to be intended for use if the United States were coming to the aid of Taiwan.
    4. By turning off critical services to military bases, and to civilian populations, China would try, according to a series of intelligence findings, to turn Americans inward — worrying about their own supplies of electricity, food and water rather than assisting a distant island that Beijing claims as its own.
    5. The sanctions were part of a joint effort between the United States and Britain to crack down on Chinese hacking into vital services. In announcing the new measures, the Treasury Department described malicious state-sponsored cyberactors as “one of the greatest and most persistent threats to U.S. national security.”
    6. The sanctions were unveiled as the Justice Department announced charges against seven Chinese nationals accused of conspiracy to commit computer intrusions and wire fraud.
    7. The hackers were part of a group known as Advanced Persistent Threat 31, or APT31, that has for the last 14 years targeted American companies, government and political officials, candidates and campaign personnel. …
    8. According to the Justice Department, the hackers deployed more than 10,000 emails with hidden tracking links that could, if opened, compromise the electronic device of a recipient. Their operation targeted a Justice Department official, high-ranking White House officials and multiple U.S. senators. …
    9. … [China’s ministry of state security] has emerged as Beijing’s largest hacking operation, after a major investment by the Chinese government, according to American intelligence agencies. …
    10. … Beijing’s … first goal appears to be finding a way to deter, or at least slow, a military effort by Washington to aid Taiwan if President Xi Jinping of China decided to try to take the island. …
    11. While President Biden has never mentioned the threat in public, his aides have been intensely focused on an operation called “Volt Typhoon” that stretches back many years but has intensified since early last year. Over the past few months, the United States has been intensively working with American business that are crucial to American infrastructure, and even issued a detailed warning last week on how to detect Chinese intrusions into critical systems.
    12. But the announcement [in March] went far beyond electric grids and water systems. It pointed to a defense contractor that manufactures flight simulators for the U.S. military, a Tennessee-based aerospace and defense contractor, and an Alabama-based aerospace and defense research corporation.
    13. The sanctions on China come as the Biden administration has been trying to stabilize relations with Beijing, seeking areas of cooperation on combating the flow of fentanyl and fighting climate change. …
    14. MIKE: Every country spies, and every country assumes it’s being spied upon. Thus, every country takes what measures it can to thwart spying while not turning every instance of espionage into an international incident. But every country has Red Lines about the kind of cyber intrusions they’ll quietly tolerate.
    15. MIKE: Countries stay quiet about espionage efforts against them for a variety of reasons. They may not want an adversary to know that they know. This conceals counter-espionage capabilities. It also provides opportunities for false information to be planted against the adversary.
    16. MIKE: Sometimes, you have data that you actually want the adversary to have, but that they wouldn’t trust if you actually handed it to them. There was a story during the Cold War that after the Cuban Missile Crisis, the US defense establishment became very concerned about the top-level security of the Command-and-Control system for Soviet nuclear weapons. Their solution, the story goes, is that they let the Soviets “steal” details of the US fail-safe system as a way to protect US security. It also protected USSR security because the US had higher confidence in the ability of Soviet leadership to control their nuclear forces, thus reducing the danger of a rogue player.
    17. REFERENCE: Leaked files from Chinese firm show vast international hacking effort; By Christian Shepherd, Cate Cadell, Ellen Nakashima, Joseph Menn and Aaron Schaffer | WASHINGTONPOST.COM | Updated February 22, 2024 at 10:01 a.m. EST | Published February 21, 2024 at 8:00 p.m. EST
13. China’s economy is headed for a ‘dead-end,’ and Beijing won’t do anything to stop it, scholar says; By Jason Ma | FORTUNE.COM | May 11, 2024 at 4:47 PM CDT
    1. China’s leadership is relying on an export surge to revive slumping growth, but those policies won’t extract the world’s second largest economy from the malaise that it’s in, a top China watcher said.
    2. Anne Stevenson-Yang, cofounder of J Capital Research and the author of Wild Ride: A Short History of the Opening and Closing of the Chinese Economy, pointed to failures by Beijing in an op-ed in the New York Times on Saturday.
    3. “Years of erratic and irresponsible policies, excessive Communist Party control and undelivered promises of reform have created a dead-end Chinese economy of weak domestic consumer demand and slowing growth,” she wrote. “The only way that China’s leaders can see to pull themselves out of this hole is to fall back on pumping out exports.”
    4. The result will be more tension with China’s trade partners as cheap manufactured goods continue to flood markets, while the Chinese people will turn gloomier, causing the government to get more repressive, Stevenson-Yang predicted.
    5. The root cause of China’s economic problems is the Communist Party’s excessive control, which isn’t going away, while its strategies that focus on adding more industrial capacity are counterproductive, she said.
    6. Most economists have recommended that Chinese leaders loosen their grip on the private sector and promote more consumption, which would entail reforming the government—”and that is unacceptable,” she added. …
    7. In the decades that followed [the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests], China’s investment-driven growth sought to pacify the people, while its cheap exports kept prices lower in the West. Meanwhile, debt piled up throughout China, and new infrastructure and housing sat underutilized.
    8. Now, President Xi Jinping is running out of policy options, Stevenson-Yang warned, as Chinese consumers refuse to boost spending, and China’s trade partners put up more barriers to its exports. In fact, the Biden administration is poised to impose severe tariffs on a range of Chinese goods. Innovation won’t come to the rescue either, as China’s economy still relies mostly on replicating existing technologies, she added.
    9. “All of this means that the ‘reform and opening’ era, which has transformed China and captivated the world since it began in the late 1970s, has ended with a whimper,” she concluded. “Mao Zedong once said that in an uncertain world, the Chinese must ‘Dig tunnels deep, store grain everywhere and never seek hegemony.’ That sort of siege mentality is coming back.”
    10. China’s slowing growth, real estate crisis, high youth unemployment, and U.S. restrictions on key technologies have led to predictions of a so-called lost decadeof stagnation. Pointing to China’s aging population, veteran strategist Ed Yardeni last year said the country could become “the world’s largest nursing home.”
    11. But a top China expert warned last month against such pessimism, saying it could lead the U.S. to grow complacent.
    12. “While its growth has slowed in recent years, China is likely to expand at twice the rate of the United States in the years ahead,” wrote Nicholas Lardy, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, in Foreign Affairs
    13. MIKE: I’ve read several stories over the weeks about how China is misapplying resources and also upsetting trading partners by coming close to definitionally dumping products while continuing to develop industrial capacity even though capacity is at a surplus. Might make no sense, but let’s continue.
14. China vows to safeguard its territorial integrity after South China Sea incident; By Reuters | REUTERS.COM | March 23, 2024 @ 10:18 PM CDT / Updated 2 months ago. TAGS: China, South China Sea, Philippines, Second Thomas Shoal, Spratly Islands,
    1. China’s defence ministry warned the Philippines against “provocative” actions and said China would safeguard its territorial sovereignty on Sunday, a day after an incident in disputed waters of the South China Sea.
    2. “We warn the Philippines to stop making any remarks that may lead to the intensification of conflicts and escalation of the situation, and stop all infringing and provocative actions,” the defence ministry said in a statement.
    3. “If the Philippines repeatedly challenges China’s bottom line, China will continue to take firm and decisive measures to firmly safeguard its territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests,” the statement continued.
    4. The remarks came after China’s coast guard said had it taken measures against Philippine vessels in disputed waters near the Second Thomas Shoal and Spratly Islands a day before, actions that the Philippines had called “irresponsible and provocative”.
    5. The incident included the use of water cannons against a civilian boat hired to resupply troops, the Philippine task force on the South China Sea said in a statement on Saturday.
    6. MIKE: We’ve discussed China’s increasing assertiveness in the South China Sea even in the face of protests by other countries in the region who have their own claims to territorial waters or Exclusive Economic Zones (also known as EEZs). I see this as part of an overarching pattern, or perhaps a strategy.
15. US Commander Warns China Is Fast Becoming More Aggressive in Region; By Isabel Reynolds | BLOOMBERG.COM | April 23, 2024 at 2:24 AM CDT.
    1. China is rapidly becoming more aggressive in its rhetoric and actions across Asia, the outgoing head of the US Indo-Pacific Command said …
    2. “We all need to understand that it’s moving very fast,” Admiral John Aquilino told reporters in Tokyo on Tuesday. “The buildup of military power despite a bad economy, the increased narrative of all things inside the 10-dash line are Chinese sovereign territory, then the actions that are going toward enforcement.”
    3. His comments came as the US seeks to build up a network of relationships with partners across the region to counter China — a move that has been condemned by Beijing. At the same time, Blinken is set to use his first trip to China since mid-2023 to convey US concerns about Chinese companies providing support to Russia’s war machine and seek to avoid derailing Washington’s ties with Beijing.
    4. In a Foreign Ministry statement … , China launched its harshest attack to date on US complaints about industrial overcapacity …
    5. Aquilino, who is preparing to step down after serving three years in the regional role overseeing 380,000 personnel, said China’s actions in the South China Sea were dangerous and destabilizing. Tensions have grown around the Second Thomas Shoal, where the Philippines maintains a grounded World War II-era ship and Chinese vessels have used water cannons to block Philippine military missions that rotate and resupply troops on the vessel.
    6. He also criticized China for “an increasingly aggressive campaign plan of coercion and pressure,” around Taiwan, including increased maritime patrols and continued crossing of a central line meant to prevent miscalculations. Blinken is also likely to reiterate US support for Taiwan before Lai Ching-te’s inauguration as president in May, which could prompt a response from Beijing.
    7. China lashed out at Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida following his visit to Washington …, where he bolstered ties with the US and took part in the first trilateral summit with the Philippines. Beijing’s military also criticized “a certain non-regional country” for building “small cliques,” which it said were “irresponsible and extremely dangerous.”
    8. MIKE: So now we’ve looked at three stories about China. They’re implanting potential cyber weapons in US and allied infrastructure (which admittedly we probably do as well). There’s aggressive Chinese activity in the South China Sea and around Taiwan. They’re aiding the Russian war effort in Ukraine. They have an economic policy that makes no sense to Western economists in terms of dealing effectively with China’s building economic challenges. Continuing to build more industrial capacity when there is already excess industrial capacity. Pronouncing its determination to protect its territorial integrity which, by itself, is not unreasonable, except for the number of territorial disputes it has with almost every country it borders on land or along the surrounding seas.
    9. MIKE: I’ve read a number of stories over the last several years that imply, one way or another, that the period between 2025 and 2030 is the period of greatest risk for war between the US and China. There are a few reasons for this calculation.
    10. MIKE: One is that the US population is slowly growing, although that’s entirely due to immigration. The natural replacement birth rate for a stable population is about 2.1 children per woman. Without immigration, the US birth rate is more like 1.91; that’s higher than most other industrialist nations, but below replacement.
    11. MIKE: China, on the other hand, is entering a period that I think can fairly be described as the beginnings of a demographic collapse. In the mid-20^th century, one of Mao’s goals was to end famine in China to the degree possible. The population was growing at one of the fastest rates in the world, and the curve upward was unsustainable. Thus the one-child policy was — pardon the pun — born. As a result of China’s decades long one-child policy, China’s population is already in early decline and will accelerate. By the end of the 21^st century China’s population is likely to have declined by half. That means that China’s manpower advantage vis-à-vis the US will be dramatically shrunken after the 2030s.
    12. MIKE: China is also currently facing its own economic challenges. Consumer spending is very low and national, provincial and municipal debt levels are very high. While these factors would seem to put the US and China on par with each other, the US seems to be in an economic and industrial renaissance while China is showing weakness. Also, what looks now like industrial overcapacity could represent a strategic long-term decision to have that capacity ready to mobilize quickly in the event of war. This has turned out to be a Russian military strength as well, so we’ve seen how that works.
    13. MIKE: Then there’s the issue of comparative militaries. In terms of an overview, China is considered a peer or near-peer potential adversary.
    14. MIKE: I can’t speak to the comparative technological or trained manpower capabilities of the two militaries, but I know that their respective militaries each have their strengths and weaknesses, and perhaps most importantly, China and the US each have very different strategic strengths and weaknesses. This is because their potential missions are very
    15. MIKE: China’s main advantages are that any conflict would be relatively close to their shores. They don’t need area dominance as much as they need and have strengths in area denial. That is to say, China has air and sea weapons that force the US to keep its distance from the Asian mainland, and the US has more ocean and island territory it needs to control and defend.
    16. MIKE: On the US side, a disadvantage is that China is about 9000 miles from US shores. The US has a lot of advanced bases throughout the Pacific and Asian island chains, but force projection and rapid resupply are among the US’s major challenges logistically due to the great distances involved.
    17. MIKE: But the US has strategic strength. It’s many regional friends and allies in the Indo-Pacific region create strategic challenges for China.
    18. MIKE: Also, while the US is far from Asia, it makes up for this with forward bases and a powerful Navy. From Wikipedia: “The United States Navy has 11 large nuclear-powered fleet carriers—carrying around 80 fighters each—the largest carriers in the world; the total combined deck space is over twice that of all other nations combined.” This is in addition to the US Navy’s and US Marines’ transport and landing capabilities, supported further by US Air Force long-haul logistical capabilities, and defensive and offensive capabilities.
    19. MIKE: That creates enormous strategic challenges for China’s air and sea defenses. While the US cannot put all those carriers to sea all at one time and in just the Indo-Pacific region, they do have the advantage of being able to operate from any number of unpredictable locations with substantial offensive air power. Add to that that each nuclear carrier is actually a whole battle group, with all the defensive and offensive capabilities that implies.
    20. MIKE: China has an advantage in total surface vessels, including warships, coast guard ships, and even civilian auxiliaries, and have the advantage that pretty much all their naval and coastal capabilities are in one region and close to bases at home. China also has the largest and most shipbuilding facilities in the world for building and maintaining all kinds of ships, and again, close to home.
    21. MIKE: The US, on the other hand, is going through a rebuilding phase almost throughout its military. Old combat aircraft are being retired to pay for new ones. Old naval vessels are being retired to pay for newer ones. The Ukraine war has drained many of our strategic weapons stockpiles to risky lows, and our ability to replace those weapons at the rates necessary have proven to be inadequate. So again, those stockpiles and industrial capabilities are in a rebuilding phase. The US rebuilding phase is currently planned to get the US back up to target strength by about 2035.
    22. MIKE: Yet on the Naval offensive and defensive side, according to Commander, Submarine Force Atlantic: “Today’s[US] submarine force is the most capable force in the world and the history of U.S. Navy, comprising 53 fast attack submarines, 14 ballistic-missile submarines and four guided-missile submarines.” This puts China’s advantage in surface vessels in some peril, limiting their tactical use. And American missile submarines can fire lots of conventional weapons as well as their nuclear capabilities. This also does not count any Allied naval capabilities in the region.
    23. MIKE: If you were to graph this with two simple lines, while China is building and the US is rebuilding, China’s line is rising while the US’s line is declining.
    24. MIKE: All of the above boils down to this: If China wanted to confront the US, it’s optimal time window looks like somewhere between 2025 to 2030. After that, the two countries will probably be very evenly matched as the lines converge with China declining and the US rising.
    25. MIKE: And yet … There may be enough strategic uncertainty as to outcomes and potential war damage that the deterrent value on both sides could be enough to avoid a leap to a military confrontation.
    26. MIKE: Time will tell, but for all kinds of historic, geopolitical, and strategic reasons, we are living in very dangerous times.

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