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POSSIBLE TOPICS: May 28th Election Runoffs; Officials target landlords who ‘abandoned’ disabled seniors during Houston power outage; Texas power prices briefly soar 1,600% as a spring heat wave is expected to drive record demand for energy; Texas’ Avoidable Blackout; Raw milk sales spike despite CDC’s warnings of risk associated with bird flu; Israel has no plan for Gaza after Hamas rule, the Israeli defense chief says; Israel’s government would be foolish to dismiss Arab League’s Manama Declaration – opinion; Confronting Another Axis? History, Humility, and Wishful Thinking (Part One); More
Welcome to Thinkwing Radio with Mike Honig where we discuss local, state, national, and international stories.
Thinkwing Radio with Mike Honig (@ThinkwingRadio) is now on Wednesdays at 11AM (CT) or Thursdays at 6PM on KPFT 90.1 FM-HD2, Houston’s Community Media. You can also hear the show:
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- An educated electorate is a prerequisite for a democracy.
- You’re entitled to your own opinion, but not your own facts.
Except for timely election info, the extensive list of voting resources will now be at the end.
- Early voting for the Primary Runoff elections is in progress. Actual Election Day is May 28th.
- If you should have gotten a mail ballot but didn’t, check with your election clerk’s or county clerk’s office and check on it.
- If you have your ballot but would now prefer to vote in person, bring it to the polling place with you. They’ll spoil the ballot and set you up to vote on a machine.
- In Harris County, Early Vote Centers will be open through Friday, May 24. (7 a.m. – 7 p.m.)
- On Election Day, Tuesday, May 28, Voting Centers will accept voters from 7 a.m. – 7 p.m.
- If you live in Harris County, visit the “What’s on my Ballot?” page and enter your name and address to see all the contests and candidates you are eligible to vote on! (You can bring handwritten notes or printed sample ballots to the voting booth; just be sure to take them with you when you leave.)
- If you live in a county adjacent to Harris, you can go to the very bottom of this show post at ThinkwingRadio[dot]Com for the clerk office link for your county. If that link is broken, please let me know.
- Harris County election information is available at HarrisVotes(dot)com.
- In Harris County, you can check on the status of your mail-in ballot at Mail Ballot Tracking. I’ve provided a link.
- A list of election day polling places can be found at the link I’m providing in this post.
- Links to county election sites for Harris and adjacent counties can be found at the bottom of this week’s show post.
- Officials target landlords who ‘abandoned’ disabled seniors during Houston power outage; By Michael Murney and Matt Sledge | HOUSTONLANDING.ORG | May 23, 2024. TAGS:
- Moises Reyes struggled to get out of bed. Then the lights went out.
- Reyes, 72, lives with severe arthritis in his knees, elbows and wrists after years working in factories in El Salvador. His apartment at Independence Hall, a 260-plus unit senior living facility on Houston’s north side, is furnished with an adjustable-height bed for people with mobility issues.
- When a violent storm knocked out power for all 260-plus Independence Hall residents Thursday night, the bed had gotten stuck in its lowest setting. Standing up was suddenly nearly impossible, he said.
- Reyes spent most of the next two days confined to his apartment with no air conditioning as temperatures crept into the low 90s. The food in his fridge spoiled quickly. Without electricity to charge his wheelchair, Reyes struggled to move in and out of his apartment.
- Reyes and his neighbors at Independence Hall are among thousands of low-income and disabled seniors in Houston left to rely on their landlords for an organized response to last week’s catastrophic storms.
- Many are low-income seniors with disabilities, living in subsidized housing and relying on functioning electricity to charge mobile oxygen machines, run in-home dialysis units, and power wheelchairs. With no power, some residents were rushed to the hospital after they suffered heat exhaustion or their portable oxygen machines died.
- A Houston Landing review of federal housing data found at least 57 residential facilities in Houston – totaling over 8,800 low-income housing units – offering services to low-income and disabled seniors, with funding from federal tax credit programs for low-income housing developers.
- It’s unclear how many facilities lost power and left residents to fend for themselves. Unlike nursing homes and assisted living facilities that provide higher levels of care, independent living facilities are not certified by the state of Texas, do not require state licensure and face scant oversight from regulators in comparison.
- Texas also leaves property owners in charge of developing and implementing emergency response and evacuation plans. The results following Thursday’s storm have been disastrous, city officials say.
- At Cypress Gardens in northwest Houston, hundreds of seniors were stranded in their apartments without power for days before city officials made contact on Monday.
- At Independence Hall, downed power lines cut across the walkways in the complex’s main square as its 260 residents waited nearly 72 hours for power and provisions.
- 230 residents at the Houston Heights Towers on 19th Street found themselves trapped in the building with no air conditioning and minimal food for two days before a local church arrived with meals and the city was alerted, the Houston Landing reported Sunday.
- City Councilmember Abbie Kamin said she asked Linda Holder, vice president and chief operating officer at the nonprofit that owns the Heights Towers, about the company’s “emergency response” plan. According to Kamin, Holder responded: “We don’t have one.”
- The dismal conditions inside some of the city’s senior living facilities have prompted outraged responses from public officials, including Mayor John Whitmire, who said residents were “abandoned.” …
- Whitmire said the city was still in the process of surveying Houston’s senior living buildings.
- “Part of our going forward will be to identify them, hold them accountable, and prevent that. They shouldn’t be doing business with any city, county or state or federal program when they’re so negligent to leave people,” Whitmire said at a Tuesday afternoon news conference. …
- In an interview Wednesday, the director of the city’s Housing and Community Development Department, Mike Nichols, said there are 28 senior living facilities that receive some sort of city financial support.
- Other facilities receive funding from entities such as Harris County or the Houston Housing Authority, he said. Meanwhile, an uncounted number rely on rent payments from residents who receive Social Security Disability Insurance. Nichols said he is not aware of a list of all the facilities that cater to seniors or disabled people.
- While many senior living facilities may have flown under the radar in the past, Nichols said the city hopes to change that going forward.
- “One of the other things I hope to come out of this disaster is a more settled and organized approach to dealing with these problems on an ongoing basis. But it’s a clear necessity in Houston, Texas that if you’re going to have a senior living facility, it needs power even when the grid goes down,” Nichols said.
- More broadly, Nichols said the city has a “severe issue” with people who rely on Social Security Disability Insurance living in substandard conditions at facilities like boarding homes and senior living facilities. “It’s an issue. It’s really a statewide issue, not just a city issue … ,” Nichols said.
- If governments in Texas wish to step up enforcement of senior living facilities, another city on the Gulf Coast could provide a template.
- After Hurricane Ida plunged New Orleans into darkness in 2021, at least seven senior residents of independent living facilities died. The city quickly approved an ordinance requiring licenses for buildings that served seniors and people with disabilities, along with mandatory emergency plans. During emergencies, the buildings must provide regular updates to city officials.
- Yet even with that ordinance on the books, some facilities failed to provide updates during a summer heat wave last year. Moreover, the ordinance did not require the facilities to install generators – a key step identified by Nichols that could keep the air-conditioning on, but come with a price for the facility operators.
- In an interview Wednesday, Nichols said the city is concentrating first on finding federal funding for generators or other forms of “energy security” to supply to senior living facilities. He said that imposing a generator mandate on facilities that receive city funding could come with the unintended consequence of reducing the city’s affordable housing stock. …
- The power came back and the lights flickered back on in Moises Reyes’ apartment on Sunday afternoon.
- Whitmire arrived at Independence Hall within an hour to survey the facility, news cameras and paramedics in tow. A row of white buses parked outside the complex’s main entrance to serve as impromptu cooling stations. Plastic water bottles were distributed to residents near the complex’s front gate.
- Reyes was not moved by the flurry of activity at Independence Hall.
- After the mayor and the cameras left, the food in my fridge is still spoiled, he said. The air conditioning in his apartment did not return with the lights; his apartment was still hot and the bed was still broken.
- MIKE: I can’t even imagine how someone can own and run a “senior living facility” without emergency plans. It’s not like Houston has never had energy emergencies or hurricanes. This kind of situation was and is entirely foreseeable.
- MIKE: An absence of energy security for such institutions is tantamount to criminal negligence when residents are relying on oxygen generators, and powered beds and powered wheelchairs for mobility. This doesn’t even consider that without electricity, food in private rooms and institutional kitchens cannot be preserved, which is what led to the food emergency in the first place.
- MIKE: There is also the question of if they had food, could they cook it or even heat it? Much of the Heights has Natural Gas (NG) connections, but this building may or may not. Most multi-unit buildings are electric-only. So no electricity, no stoves or ovens or microwaves.
- MIKE: Also, an absence of electricity not only means no AC. It also means no heat even if the building has gas, since electricity means no thermostats, blowers, or electronic ignition.
- MIKE: With so many of us having just experienced multi-day power outages, I’m probably not saying anything most of us don’t know, but now let’s talk about the necessity for some kind of backup power for these buildings.
- MIKE: Adequately-sized whole house NG-powered generators for a median-sized residence can cost upwards of $15,000 with installation. For, in this case, a 260-unit building, that would be orders of magnitude more. And this is even assuming the building has NG connections. If not, such a generator would also need substantial diesel or propane tanks, which would consume lots of space and which can be hazardous in their own explosive way.
- MIKE: My thought is to seriously consider solar backup for these buildings. Cover the roofs, parking lots, and other parts of the property with solar panels. With that, install an adequate number of backup batteries to run the building properly for at least 12-18 hours. The advantage of this is that, unlike a backup generator, this doesn’t add an ongoing expense for fuel, self-testing, maintenance, etc. It will provide returns in savings of electricity bills — even more so as electricity costs increase — and there are tax credits for the conversion.
- MIKE: Having said that, let me tell you of my experience with solar during this power emergency.
- MIKE: I bought solar with two backup batteries almost two years ago, so I have some real-world experience with the pros and cons. My main motivations for the solar system were energy security. My thinking was that I would weather most backups without even noticing, which has been the case. In the case of longer failures, I could go for up to 10-12 hours or more before the batteries were fully discharged. (It could have been longer, but that’s another story. Mea culpa.) My thinking was that between the batteries and the solar panels, I’d never go 24 hours without power.
- MIKE: In the real world scenario we just experienced, that almost went as planned. I had power from 6PM Thursday until about 2AM Friday. It came on again briefly at about 11AM, but then the batteries ran out and the sky was too overcast to generate significant solar, so I got maybe about 5% of my needs that day.
- MIKE: But my goal was not to go 24 hours without power, and I got close. On Saturday, the sky was clear, and my batteries started to charge on solar just about the time that CenterPoint restored power, so I was among the lucky ones.
- MIKE: Going back to multi-unit buildings, they might use something larger than residential backup batteries; maybe something more akin to utility type batteries. Some of these are cheaper, if less energy dense, and they often have longer useful lives than regular lithium-ion batteries.
- MIKE: But the point here is that there are options, and whichever options are applied, some kind of backup energy capacity should be required. In the case of elderly and others, this is a life-preserving issue.
- Speaking of energy security … This is from May 18th — Texas power prices briefly soar 1,600% as a spring heat wave is expected to drive record demand for energy; By Jason Ma | FORTUNE.COM | May 18, 2024 at 12:49 PM CDT. TAGS: Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), Bitcoin Mining, Electricity Prices,
- Hotter temperatures in Texas are expected to set new all-time highs for energy use in the month of May, sending electricity prices spiking higher.
- The state’s grid operator, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), predicted demand would jump from 57,486 megawatts on Friday to 71,893 MW on Monday, 72,725 MW on Tuesday, and 74,346 MW on May 24, according to Reuters.
- The coming week could see demand topple the current record for May of 71,645 MW set in 2022, while still trailing the all-time high of 85,508 MW set on Aug. 10, 2023.
- That’s as weather forecasts for top cities like Houston and Dallas have put high temperatures in the 90s, above seasonal norms, meaning more Texans will crank up their air conditioning.
- [MIKE: As a reference point, from a different source, price per MWh can be less than $20.] Expectations for the latest demand surge boosted electricity prices in the spot market, with next-day prices in ERCOT’s north hub soaring to $120 per megawatt hour MWh for Friday from $40 for Thursday, according to LSEG pricing data cited by Reuters.
- And for about one hour late Friday, day-ahead prices on ERCOT’s website jumped as high as $688 per MWh, representing an increase of more than 1,600% compared to the prior day.
- The Texas power market is deregulated and on its own electricity grid. But the actual price that consumers pay depends on the type of contract they have with their provider. And since February 2021, energy providers have been barred from fully passing along wholesale electricity prices to their residential customers.
- Brutal heat waves over recent summers have shattered records for power demand, sending spot prices on wild, sudden swings. In September, Texas power prices surged as much as 20,000%.
- Meanwhile, Texas has seen an influx of residents since the pandemic as people fled states like California and New York, where the cost of living is higher, meaning more customers are plugged into the grid.
- Texas has also become a hotbed for bitcoin mining, adding to electricity demand, as the state’s deregulated power market and abundance of cheap natural gas became attractive to the energy-intensive sector. The proliferation of data centers and the rise of artificial intelligence technology has also boosted demand.
- Along the same vein, there’s this story from FORBES — Texas’ Avoidable Blackout; Ariel Cohen, Contributor | FORBES.COM | May 19, 2024 @ 04:00pm EDT. TAGS:
- … The isolation of the Texas power grid has become a symbol of the state’s independent streak and resistance to federal oversight in recent years. The massive outages during Winter Storm Uri in 2021 were a wake-up call to the vulnerabilities of Texas’ system. Now it seems Texas has sleepwalked into another avoidable crisis, with record high temperatures approaching and the Energy Reliability Council of Texas warning that these conditions may squeeze reserve margins.
- The isolation of the Texas power grid began in 1935 when Congress passed the Public Utility Holding Company Act, which targeted energy monopolies to bring down consumer costs as power companies isolated themselves from other states to avoid federal regulation and maintain monopolies, enabled by state size and abundant natural resources. ERCOT was later formed in 1970 to manage the state’s electric grid and the wholesale energy market. Today, ERCOT is regulated by the Public Utility Commission of Texas and is responsible for meeting about 90% of the state’s energy demands.
- The flaws of ERCOT were put on full display in February 2021 when a perfect storm of disastrous conditions emerged: just as the cold caused energy demands to spike, natural gas production and power plants were buckling, knocked out by weather conditions that energy providers and weather forecasting services had underestimated. ERCOT reported that demand peaked at 69,000 megawatts, far exceeding any planned worst-case scenario. …
- The isolation of the Texas grid was a key factor in the failure to power the state during such an event. The Eastern Interconnection and the Western Interconnection cover the rest of the U.S., and stronger links to these two power-sharing networks might have provided more sufficient safeguards and backup energy sources as the cold swept across the state. In reaction to this article, ERCOT quoted its response to the proposed Connect the Grid Act, stating “When looking at proposals to add additional connections from ERCOT to neighboring grids, many factors need to be considered including transmission costs, reliability and economic impacts, and market-design implications.”
- [Note that this statement doesn’t mention a key reason: Keeping the Feds out of Texas’s bidness. Moving on …]
- The city of El Paso demonstrates the protection provided by power-sharing — it is part of the Western Interconnection rather than ERCOT’s network, enabling the city to weather the freeze much better than either Houston or Dallas.
- An isolated grid also creates persistent problems even when no foul weather impacts the state. Spot wholesale electricity prices in Texas are $175 per megawatt-hour for August, up from $90.18 in August 2023. Price increases of this magnitude are not consistent across the United States. …
- S. Representative Greg Casar (D-Austin) recently filed the “Connect the Grid Act,” which would require ERCOT to become interconnected with neighboring power networks and subject the agency to Federal Energy Regulatory Commission oversight. However, significant Republican opposition on the grounds that the measure would bring Texas’ state-managed grid into a federal system struggling with its own issues signals that it is highly unlikely to pass, meaning interconnection is still a long time coming.
- Still, there is a silver lining. The power grid successfully weathered another cold flash this January, thanks to a sharp uptick in battery construction and a surge in solar and wind power, which allowed Texas to diversify and decentralize its energy production to meet increasing demand.
- Texas’ decades of isolation from the rest of the country’s power grid have resulted in surging costs to consumers and deadly failures that threaten the health and safety of Texas residents….
- MIKE: It’s important to note that last week’s power outage, being the result of a storm causing physical damage to energy infrastructure, interconnecting Texas to the North American grid would not have made a difference as far as I can tell. There may have been very localized exceptions to this assumption on my part.
- MIKE: But that doesn’t change the fact that Texas’s parochial and vaguely secessionist desire to keep itself cut off from the national grid and thus Federal regulation is a disservice to Texas citizens, and has proven life threatening and actually fatal to Texans in recent times.
- MIKE: If Texans can’t elect a Texas government that will choose to join the United States — again! — then we have to hope that a Democratic majority in Congress may someday come to our rescue.
- MIKE: But it’s important to remember that this disconnect from the national grid does not obviate the necessity of individuals and institutions to look to their own energy security in the event of infrastructure-related power outages like we just experienced. Done right, as is the case with solar, such security might even pay for itself in the long run, even in the absence of major energy emergencies.
- Raw milk sales spike despite CDC’s warnings of risk associated with bird flu; By JoNel Aleccia, Associated Press | PBS.ORG | May 14, 2024 10:40 AM EDT. TAGS: Avian Flu, Bird Flu, H5N1, Raw Milk,
- Sales of raw milk appear to be on the rise, despite years of warnings about the health risks of drinking the unpasteurized products — and an outbreak of bird flu in dairy cows.
- Since March 25, when the bird flu virus was confirmed in U.S. cattle for the first time, weekly sales of raw cow’s milk have ticked up 21% to as much as 65% compared with the same periods a year ago, according to the market research firm NielsenIQ.
- That runs counter to advice from the Food and Drug Administration and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which calls raw milk one of the “riskiest” foods people can consume.
- “Raw milk can be contaminated with harmful germs that can make you very sick,” the CDC says on its website. As of Monday, at least 42 herds in nine states are known to have cows infected with the virus known as type A H5N1, federal officials said.
- The virus has been found in high levels in the raw milk of infected cows. Viral remnants have been found in samples of milk sold in grocery stores, but the FDA said those products are safe to consume because pasteurization has been confirmed to kill the virus.
- It’s not yet known whether live virus can be transmitted to people who consume milk that hasn’t been heat-treated.
- But CDC officials warned last week that people who drink raw milk could theoretically become infected if the bird flu virus comes in contact with receptors in the nose, mouth and throat or by inhaling virus into the lungs. There’s also concern that if more people are exposed to the virus, it could mutate to spread more easily in people. …
- Mark McAfee, owner of Raw Farm USA in Fresno, California, says he can’t keep his unpasteurized products in stock.
- “People are seeking raw milk like crazy,” he said, noting that no bird flu has been detected in his herds or in California. “Anything that the FDA tells our customers to do, they do the opposite.”
- The surge surprises Donald Schaffner, a Rutgers University food science professor who called the trend “absolutely stunning.”
- “Food safety experts like me are just simply left shaking their heads,” he said.
- From 1998 to 2018, the CDC documented more than 200 illness outbreaks traced to raw milk, which sickened more than 2,600 people and hospitalized more than 225.
- Raw milk is far more likely than pasteurized milk to cause illnesses and hospitalizations linked to dangerous bacteria such as campylobacter, listeria, salmonella and E. coli, research shows. …
- Despite the risks, about 4.4% of U.S. adults — nearly 11 million people — report that they drink raw milk at least once each year, and about 1% say they consume it each week, according to a 2022 FDA study. …
- Reports of bird flu in dairy cattle have not made her think twice about drinking raw milk, [said Bonni Gilley, 75, of Fresno.]
“If anything, it is accelerating my thoughts about raw milk,” she said, partly because she doesn’t trust government officials. - Such views are part of a larger problem of government mistrust and a rejection of expertise, said Matthew Motta, who studies health misinformation at Boston University.
- “It not that people are stupid or ignorant or that they don’t know what the science is,” he said. “They’re motivated to reject it on the basis of partisanship, their political ideology, their religion, their cultural values.”
- CDC and FDA officials didn’t respond to questions about the rising popularity of raw milk.
- Motta suggested that the agencies should push back with social media posts extolling the health effects of pasteurized milk.
- MIKE: Without getting too snarky about Darwin Award aspirants, I partly disagree with Matthew Motta. There’s a saying that ignorance is a correctable condition, but stupid is forever. I’m not inclined to be as charitable as Motta. I think we’re dealing here with both the ignorant and the stupid. Increased efforts at public awareness will help at least one, and that’s the group we need to target through basic education and various forms of media. But I think that “extolling the health effects of pasteurized milk” is only part of the answer.
- MIKE: It’s sad to say but as in politics, people are more likely to respond to things that trigger hate, anger, and fear. In this case, I think it’s the fear component that needs to be targeted most heavily.
- MIKE: It’s time to go back to the public service ads and announcements of health and hygiene from the 19th and 20th Remind folks that raw milk is potentially dangerous, and show horrifying old and new film and video of the effects of the diseases that might be contracted.
- MIKE: Remind folks to wash hands whenever possible after bathroom use, or during and after food preparation, because I can say authoritatively that a scary number of people don’t. Show horrifying old and new film and video of what those potential diseases look like when they were and are endemic.
- MIKE: Vaccines prevent measles, chicken pox and other serious diseases. And again, show horrifying old and new film and video of what those diseases look like when they were and are endemic.
- MIKE: This country needs a major push to re-educate our population of the reasons and need for better hygiene and important preventative care. Again, it’s sad to say, but the stubbornly and even willfully ignorant mostly cannot be reasoned with. But they can be educated, even if it takes instilling some healthy fear into them, with the key word being “healthy”.
- REFERENCE: California’s ‘wellness’ devotees think raw milk infected with bird flu will ‘boost immunity’ — UNMC.EDU, Published May 15, 2024
- Israel has no plan for Gaza after Hamas rule, the Israeli defense chief says; By Daniel Estrin | NPR.ORG | May 16, 2024 @ 6:02 AM ET. TAGS: Gaza, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, Hamas,
- Amid growing frustration in Israel over where the war is headed eight months in, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Wednesday accused Israel’s leadership of ignoring his requests to discuss a replacement to Hamas rule in Gaza.
- “Since October, I have been raising this issue consistently in the Cabinet, and have received no response,” Gallant said.
- His speech, broadcast live, is the harshest rebuke yet of Israel’s war strategy in Gaza from within Israel’s three-man war cabinet. It set off a political firestorm that could threaten Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s hold on power.
- The debate over the “day after” in Gaza erupted when Israeli military spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari was asked at a news conference Tuesday whether Israeli troops had been sent to retake areas of Gaza they had retreated from because there were no governing alternatives to Hamas. Hagari said a replacement for Hamas would pressure the militant group, but that it was a question for Israel’s political leaders.
- Netanyahu then said in a video released by his office Wednesday that discussions about a “day-after” strategy are meaningless until Hamas is defeated, and said some of Israel’s efforts to replace Hamas are covert.
- Gallant appeared to refute Netanyahu’s claims, saying no efforts were being made to establish an an alternative to Hamas in Gaza. He called on Netanyahu to declare that Israel would not establish civil or military rule in Gaza for the long term.
- “The ‘day after Hamas’ will only be achieved with Palestinian entities taking control of Gaza, accompanied by international actors, establishing a governing alternative to Hamas’ rule,” Gallant said in his live speech. “Unfortunately, the plan was not brought for discussion, and worse, an alternative discussion was not raised in its place.”
- In response, several hard-right members of Netanyahu’s governing coalition called for the defense minister to be replaced.
- Gallant, a member of Netanyahu’s hawkish Likud party, challenged Netanyahu in March of last year when he called on him to drop plans to weaken the powers of Israel’s judiciary. He said widespread opposition to the judicial overhaul among the public and within the military ranks was eroding Israel’s security. Netanyahu fired Gallant, sparking massive street protests that led Netanyahu to reinstate him. …
- The Oct. 7 Hamas-led attack on southern Israel came about half a year after Gallant’s reinstatement. It was the deadliest day in Israel’s history, sparking the country’s ongoing offensive in Gaza, the deadliest war in Gaza’s history.
- With Netanyahu failing to articulate a clear plan for replacing Hamas rule, several thousand Israeli settlers and their supporters — including senior ministers in Netanyahu’s government — rallied Tuesday for Israel to build Jewish settlements atop the ruins of Gaza’s destroyed cities, and to encourage Palestinians to emigrate. …
- In a speech at the pro-settlement rally, far-right lawmaker Zvi Sukkot celebrated the immense destruction the Israeli army has wreaked on Gaza in the more than seven months of war, saying Israel’s enemies must relinquish land as a consequence of attacking the country. …
- Israel used to have settlements in Gaza. The government uprooted its soldiers and settlers from the territory in 2005. Two years later, the Palestinian militant group Hamas took control of the enclave.
- Netanyahu has said Israel does not intend to reoccupy Gaza for the long term or to resettle it, but he has also resisted U.S. calls for Gaza to be governed by a revitalized Palestinian Authority, a more moderate Palestinian leadership. …
- Eyal Hulata, who served as Israel’s national security adviser under Netanyahu’s predecessor, Naftali Bennett, and is now a fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, says, “Nobody’s talking about a two-state solution. We’re talking about a prospect of self-governance by the Palestinians, something that gets the support of the vast majority of Israelis. And Netanyahu, for his own political reasons, isn’t capable of saying that.” …
- MIKE: In years past, when discussing the catastrophic aftermath of the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, I was asking a question: Why did the post-WW2 occupations of the defeated powers go so relatively smoothly when the occupations of Afghanistan and Iraq went so disastrously?
- MIKE: From American experience in those countries and now Israeli experience in Gaza, I think the answer is becoming more clear: Postwar planning.
- MIKE: The Allies in WW2 made very detailed plans on how their occupations would be executed. Disarmament of enemy soldiers, occupation of enemy facilities and territory, and possession of enemy weapons and equipment. But perhaps most importantly, decisions were also made on what occupation governance would look like and what civilian authorities in the occupied countries the military governors would interface with.
- MIKE: The Bush administration, trying to fight wars on the cheap without mobilizing sufficient forces to perform proper occupations, and perhaps due to arrogance, incompetence, or some combination of flaws, had not tried to learn the proper lessons of history, assuming they had learned any lessons at all.
- MIKE: We all know what the results were of those policies, or the lack of them.
- MIKE: I’m now feeling that the Israeli government under Prime Minister Netanyahu is making those exact same mistakes. With a focus on fighting the war, but no clear plans on how to win it or what would come after, I’m becoming afraid that however the Israelis will define victory, it will become a victory without peace or any kind of stable co-existence.
- MIKE: What’s really sad is the obvious inevitability of this outcome under present Israeli political and military policies.
- Our next story relates to this — Israel’s government would be foolish to dismiss Arab League’s Manama Declaration – opinion; THE DECLARATION addresses the concerns of mainstream Israelis and their international partners. By EITAN CHARNOFF | COM (Jerusalem Post)| MAY 21, 2024 @ 00:55. Tags: Benjamin Netanyahu, Gaza Strip, Jabalya, Israel-Hamas War 2024. The writer is co-founder of the Emma Lazarus Institute, a think-tank forging shared values between the democratic West and moderate East. He is also CEO of Potomac Strategy, a consultancy advising clients, including GCC governments, on geopolitics, public safety, and international cooperation.
- After months of political indecision regarding Gaza’s future, due in part to extremists within Israel’s governing coalition, broaching the topic of the Strip’s next leadership is now unavoidable. That is, it seems unavoidable to all but Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. After withdrawing most of its ground forces earlier this year, the IDF has redeployed significant manpower into central and northern Gaza to dismantle resurgent Hamas infrastructure …
- The demoralizing reality of intensive combat in areas previously cleared of Hamas has motivated IDF Spokesperson [Rear] Adm. Daniel Hagari to emphatically declare that, “A governmental alternative to Hamas would put create pressure on Hamas, but that is a question for the political echelon.”
- Defense Minister Yoav Gallant issued a public plea, stating more directly: “I call on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to make a decision and declare that Israel will not establish civilian control over the Gaza Strip…”
- … [I]n a dramatic address, war cabinet member MK Benny Gantz also added pressure by giving Netanyahu an ultimatum: Propose a tangible strategy for Gaza’s future by June 8, or his National Unity party would dissolve the unity government – leaving the prime minister still likely secure with his 64-seat coalition.
- The coalition’s far-Right partners have established that they wish to see Israeli rule in Gaza, but outright Jewish settlement and the emigration of large swathes of Palestinians.
- While not endorsing this vision, Netanyahu has persisted in insisting that he does not want the Palestinian Authority (PA) to rule the Gaza Strip. Netanyahu’s only recent reference to possible governance in post-war Gaza was a declaration of the need for Saudi and Emirati support during an interview with Dr. Phil. …
- [MIKE: I must insert here: DR. PHIL?!?! Moving on …]
- While Israel’s government remains in turmoil, at best, and utter denial at worst, the Arab League met this week and released the Manama Declaration on Thursday. This declaration both closely aligns with Western regional interests and approaches Israel with the utmost pragmatism, demonstrating the level of acceptance of Israel in the region, despite the now seven months long war with Hamas.
- The Manama Declaration contains numerous efficacious clauses, including condemning Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping vessels and reaffirming the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) as the sole representative of the Palestinian people. Though receiving virtually no coverage in Israel, it offers the most practical solution for Gaza’s short-term future – and elaborates an alternative to Israeli control of the Strip without PA rule in phase one.
- Ultimately, the declaration clears a significant barrier in creating a stable future for Gaza. Arab states could find it difficult to accept an Israeli request for their involvement in Gaza via a Dr. Phil interview, however, an Arab-nation-initiated solution is far more appealing.
- Most importantly, the Manama Declaration calls for a United Nations peacekeeping force to operate in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, and Gaza until a two-state solution is attained. While a UN presence in the West Bank and Jerusalem will undoubtedly be rejected by any Israeli government, a UN peacekeeping force in Gaza initiated by Arab states – coupled with acknowledging that a sovereign Palestinian state will not materialize “tomorrow” – does not negate any of Netanyahu’s declared “No’s.”
- In fact, this proposal includes some of his “Yes’s.”
- Critically, Israel could petition for the gradual introduction of a UN peacekeeping force, which would allow it to continue its operation in Rafah and, hopefully, negotiate for the release of hostages. If a peacekeeping force were to be deployed in the center and North of Gaza, these objectives could still be achieved while preventing a Hamas rebound.
- An Arab-backed UN peacekeeping mission would eventually allow Israel to withdraw ground troops from Gaza, ending the intensive combat phase of the war. It also leaves opportunities for non-PA-led governance in the short term, which would allow Netanyahu to fulfill his promises and allow his far-Right coalition partners to save face. A UN force in Gaza would also allow time to foster a stable Palestinian government in the long term – and does not negate any of Gantz’s notions either.
- THE DECLARATION addresses the concerns of mainstream Israelis and their international partners. Its proposals would save Israeli soldiers’ lives, further engage regional and global stakeholders in Gaza’s future, and allow Israel to follow a regional vision for its problems that does not negate its own needs.
- It also lays the early groundwork for a prosperous and de-radicalized Palestinian society, supported by pragmatic Arab States, a prerequisite for sustainable resolutions to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
- In the new reality created by the Abraham Accords, Israel has the option to work with its regional partners to begin solving the disaster created by Hamas on October 7. The Manama Declaration remains the best solution to date. For Israel’s government to dismiss it would be foolish.
- MIKE: I must note that I am neither Israeli, nor Arab, nor Palestinian. I also want to emphasize that this reporting came from the Jerusalem Post.
- MIKE: While the Devil in any contract — whether personal, business, or international — is always in the details, The Manama Declaration sounds in its broad strokes like a very reasonable point of departure. While the outline here is necessarily superficial, that such a document was put forward by the Arab League in the midst of a war that has polarized and inflamed the Muslim world must be admired for what it seems to be: A truly remarkably constructive document, especially given its source and the time in history in which it was offered.
- MIKE: I think that most pre-Netanyahu Israeli governments would have unhesitatingly jumped at such an opportunity. This document not only attempts to create the contours of a possible post-war future for Gaza and its people; it also implies by its very existence a serious overture at advancing integration of Israel into the region in a real and constructive way. Implied in the description of the Declaration is also a potential long-term resolution of the West Bank question as well, or at least possibly tangible baby steps toward one.
- MIKE: I think that this Arab League offer demands close examination by the government of Israel as a real diplomatic offering that could accomplish the main objectives of both Palestinians and Israelis, as well as potentially greater stabilization of the entire region.
- MIKE: The Devil may be in the details, but the Manama Declaration sounds like it was offered with serious thought to the needs and desires of both sides, and as such deserves serious attention and consideration.
- MIKE: For the rest of the show, I’ll be doing something unusual. This next piece is actually an analysis of the current global geopolitical situation and the dangers and opportunities it presents for the United States and its allies. It also looks at possible analogies from the period of the 1930s through the 1940s that may offer some useful perspectives. In many cases, the commentary reiterates things I’ve been saying on this show over the past few years, but with more historical context. In some cases, it mentions things I never knew before. And it offers perspectives that are well worth thinking about.
- MIKE: The full opinion piece runs about 26 pages, so while still lengthy, I have had to edit it down significantly for the purposes of this show. I strongly recommend that if you have interests in history, comparative history, geopolitics, military confrontations, and how past crises have developed and resolved themselves, this article is a “must read”.
- For the sake of convenience and clarity, I have changed the author’s self-references to third person. If you are interested in reading this article in full, which I strongly recommend, go to the link I’m providing in the show post.
- I’ll be reading the first part this week. I intend to read the rest next week.
- Confronting Another Axis? History, Humility, and Wishful Thinking; Philip Zelikow | TNSR.ORG (Texas National Security Review) | Vol 7, Issue 3 Summer 2024. TAGS: Geopolitics, History, Cold War, Axis Powers, World War 2, The World War 2 Allies,
- [From] The Texas National Security Review is an interdisciplinary journal that is committed to excellence, scholarly rigor, and big ideas.
- [The author,] Philip Zelikow is … An attorney and former career diplomat, Zelikow’s federal service includes work across the government in the five administrations from President Ronald Reagan through President Barack Obama. [among many other qualifications].
- Drawing on his extensive experience as a historian and diplomat, Philip Zelikow warns that the United States faces an exceptionally volatile time in global politics and that the period of maximum danger might be in the next one to three years. He highlights lessons from the anti-American partnerships developed by the Axis powers in World War II and [by]Moscow and Beijing during the early Cold War. Zelikow reminds decision-makers who face Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea today to remember that adversaries can miscalculate and recalculate and that it can be difficult to fully understand internal divisions within an adversary’s government, how rival states draw their own lessons from different interpretations of history, and how they might quickly react to a new event that appears to shift power dynamics.
- The United States faces a purposeful set of powerful adversaries in a rapidly changing and militarized period of history, short of all-out war. This is the third time the United States has been confronted with such a situation. The first was between 1937 and 1941 and was resolved by American entry into World War II. The second was between 1948 and 1962, implicating the Soviet Union and the People’s Republic of China. Thankfully, world war was avoided and in November 1962 the Soviet Union relaxed its stance in the central confrontation in Europe.1
- It is not yet clear when and how the present-day crisis will resolve.
- We are in an exceptionally volatile, dynamic, and unstable period of world history. During the next two or three years, the situation will probably settle more durably in one direction or another: wider war or uneasy peace. There is a serious possibility of worldwide warfare. Because of the variety of contingencies and outcomes, some involving nuclear arsenals, this period could be more difficult to gauge and more dangerous for the United States than the prior two episodes.
- [Zelikow trains] a historian’s microscope on some of the inner deliberations in past episodes. …
- [Zelikow starts] by introducing the challenge of gauging serious risks in the past, focusing on an oft-forgotten crisis involving Yugoslavia in 1951. [He explains] what the anti-American partnerships tend to have in common. [He reviews] the twisty and surprising way that the original “Axis” developed into 1941. [Zelikow then summarizes] the interactions that led to war with the United States, a war that the Axis powers had hoped to avoid, or at least postpone, when 1941 began. [Zelikow also summarizes] how the anti-American partnership solidified and worked in the period of maximum danger of World War III, between 1948 and the end of 1962. Recalling these experiences conditions us for possible recalculations by U.S. adversaries and painful shocks.
- In the past, these changes occurred for reasons that outsiders often did not understand or expect. Enemy leaders changed course, sometimes sharply, as they saw successes or reverses in other parts of the world. This suggests that the outcome of the war in Ukraine might strongly affect the wider course of world history.
- Assessing the anti-American coalition today, [Zelikow looks] at the Chinese vision for peaceful coexistence. Rather than treat this as an analogy to the era of Cold War detente in the early 1970s, it may be more useful to recall the vision of “peaceful coexistence” that Nikita Khrushchev articulated during the late 1950s, which was a prelude to heightened confrontation.
- [Zelikow fears] that the legacy of American success in its past global confrontations can encourage wishful thinking now. [He notes] how different America’s circumstances and capabilities are today, as it balances the danger of simultaneous conflicts worldwide. The most serious risks may be those that place the burden on America to escalate in a crisis, in these changed circumstances. [Zelikow illustrates] this point in the Taiwan context.
- MIKE: I’m going to interrupt here to make an observation. Following WW2 and Korea, the US military tried to configure itself for the ability to fight “2 ½ Wars”. That is to say the equivalent capability of fighting a Pacific War, an Atlantic War, and an unforeseen so-called “small brushfire war”.
- MIKE: For both strategic and fiscal reasons, this changed in the 1970s and beyond as potential world threats shifted. A 2 ½ war posture is coming back into vogue. I’ve provided a reference link at the bottom of this story for those who are interested. Now, back to the article …
- A frequent answer to such dilemmas is to engage in wishful thinking, usually a call for general American rearmament and reinvigorated power projection. But, absent another great shock, these plans are unlikely to be enacted soon enough and would take a number of years to bear fruit … And, precisely because some allied movements to build up arsenals have gotten underway, the period of maximum danger may be in the short term — the coming one, two, or three years. U.S. and allied leaders should concentrate on how they will cope with forces more readily available. Since the worst case would be a traumatic defeat, U.S. leaders will need to develop more practical plans than seem evident now, with some potentially painful tradeoffs.
- [Zelikow calls] attention to the neglected significance of economic deterrent tools, amid so much attention to military instruments. Since use of the military instruments will cause economic calamity anyway, there is no good reason not to give much more attention to these economic tools.
- [Zelikow is] relatively optimistic over the medium and long term, but deeply worried about the challenge of getting through the next few years.
- A Serious Possibility: The Promise and Peril of Gauging Risk — On … March 20, 1951, the CIA’s new board of national estimates, then led by William Langer and Sherman Kent, distributed a new national intelligence estimate. It was on the “Probability of an Invasion of Yugoslavia in 1951.”
- When this estimate on Soviet plans for Yugoslavia was distributed, the United States had been engaged in a limited war in Korea for nearly a year. Several months earlier, China had joined this war. By the end of 1950, the United States had declared a national emergency, begun a national mobilization, and tripled its defense budget, preparing for World War III.2 In March 1951, the most likely place where America’s enemies might wish to widen the war was in central Europe. Since a direct Soviet attack on West Germany would foreseeably and quickly lead to nuclear escalation, the most likely flashpoint was Yugoslavia.
- There the communist leader, Josip Broz Tito, had broken openly with Joseph Stalin in 1948 … and he had brutally purged possible Soviet sympathizers. So, Moscow’s last option to bring Tito to heel was invasion, and it began to plan for one.3
- Both the Soviet government and the CIA analysts who were studying it foresaw that such an invasion of Yugoslavia could lead to the intervention of the Western powers. … [E]veryone understood, this would risk general war.
- [While] the CIA’s board of national estimates came to believe the Soviets and their satellites had laid the groundwork for an invasion of Yugoslavia … they saw no indication of timing or imminence. So, led by Langer and Kent, they concluded, “… [A]n attack on Yugoslavia in 1951 should be considered a serious possibility.”
- Langer and Kent were historians. … Both were already deeply experienced in wartime political and military analysis, in the Office of Strategic Services and after.
- Later that week, Kent strolled from CIA headquarters … to the State Department to discuss this estimate with Paul Nitze, the director of policy planning. Kent recalled that Nitze asked, “What did you people mean by the expression ‘serious possibility’? What kind of odds did you have in mind?”
- Kent replied, “I told him that my personal estimate was on the dark side, namely that the odds were around 65 … [percent] in favor of an attack.” Nitze “was somewhat jolted by this; he and his colleagues had read ‘serious possibility’ to mean odds very considerably lower.” …
- The Soviet invasion didn’t happen and the danger was largely forgotten. Kent’s worry about the “dark side” became rueful anecdote. However, he was closer to the mark than he knew.
- Two months before he helped write the National Intelligence Estimate, in January 1951, there had been a top-secret conference in Moscow. The American analysts had known nothing of it. There, Stalin had told key leaders, including from satellite countries, to prepare urgently, on a crash basis, to invade Yugoslavia. He told them to prepare for the possibility of general war.
- For a year, Stalin had orchestrated and watched the developments in Korea. At that January 1951 conference in Moscow, Stalin sized up the situation confidently. The United States, he declared, had failed to defeat China and North Korea. This failure demonstrated that “the United States is unprepared to start a third world war and is not even capable of fighting a small war.”5
- So, as it turns out, the Soviet bloc preparations in 1951 and 1952 were very real. Historians still do not know why the Soviet invasion of Yugoslavia did not happen.
- Stalin may have been deterred. NATO had … reacted strongly to the “serious possibility.” Washington had rushed massive U.S. military aid to Yugoslavia … a somewhat shocking [move] as it was in aid of a communist dictatorship. Some analysts had advised against such Yugoslav aid. They had worried that such aid might provoke the Soviet invasion. But the policy went ahead. NATO also prepared its own contingency military plans for a Yugoslav war …The plans included contingencies for possible U.S. use of nuclear weapons. Soviet agents may have been aware of these plans.
- MIKE: The next installment of this article will be read on next week’s show.
- I’ve added some references for your consideration at the bottom of this show post. Stay tuned for the rest of this article on next week’s show.
- REFERENCE: Two-Theatre War — BRITANNICA.COM (Also refers to the shift to a “1½-War strategy, and the evolution back to a 2-War or 2½-War posture.)
- REFERENCE: Sakhalin — From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
- REFERENCE: S. Navy Destroyer Conducts Freedom of Navigation Operation in the South China Sea — NAVY.MIL (US Navy)
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