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POSSIBLE TOPICS: ELECTION INFO; Tomball City Council approves $24.8M TEDC budget for FY 2024-25; Residents push back against public comment restrictions in Missouri City; Bellaire officials call for $70M in bond referendums to fund stormwater, wastewater projects; The Miles exodus continues; Queer students look for alternatives after Texas A&M ends transgender health care services; How Harris Has Completely Upended the Presidential Race, in 14 Maps; Revealed: Shell oil non-profit donated to anti-climate groups behind Project 2025; The Real Reason Iran Hasn’t Retaliated Against Israel; Kazakhstan Calls for a Russia-Free Defense Bloc in Central Asia; 

Welcome to Thinkwing Radio with Mike Honig where we discuss local, state, national, and international stories. 

Thinkwing Radio with Mike Honig (@ThinkwingRadio) is now on Wednesdays at 11AM (CT) or Thursdays at 6PM on KPFT 90.1 FM-HD2, Houston’s Community Media. You can also hear the show:

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Except for timely election info, the extensive list of voting resources will now be at the end.

1. ELECTION INFO: Be correctly registered for the fall General elections, and double check at the link I’m providing to Texas Secretary of State to make sure you remain
   5. The general election is Nov. 5. The deadline for voter registration is Oct. 7.
   6. The deadline to apply for a mail ballot is October 25. Click on the link I’m providing to HarrisVotes for the application. Please fill it out, print it, and mail it (not email or fax) before the deadline.
   7. Early Vote Centers will be open from Monday, October 21– Friday, November 1 (Mon-Sat: 7 a.m. – 7 p.m. Sun:12 p.m. – 7 p.m. )
   8. Vote Centers will accept voters from 7 a.m. – 7 p.m. on Election Day, Tuesday, November 5.
   9. Visit our “What’s on my Ballot?” page and enter your name or address to see all the contests and candidates you are eligible to vote on! (You can bring handwritten notes or printed sample ballots to the voting booth; just be sure to take it with you when you leave.)
2. Tomball City Council approves $24.8M TEDC budget for FY 2024-25; By Nichaela Shaheen | COMMUNITYIMPACT.COM | 5:37 PM Aug 20, 2024 CDT / Updated 5:37 PM Aug 20, 2024 CDT. TAGS: Tomball City Council, Tomball Economic Development Corp (TEDC),
   1. During two separate 19 meetings, Tomball City Council discussed and approved the Tomball Economic Development Corp. $24.88 million budget, which would help fund city projects for fiscal year 2024-25. …
   2. The $24.88 million in expenditures will dip into the [TEDC’s] fund balance, which begins the year at $27.38 million and ends at $8.9 million, according to budget documents.
   3. According to the presentation, the city of Tomball will receive funding for these projects: $1 million a year for 20 years for the Southside sewer treatment plant’s debt service; $1.5 million for Main Street tree upgrades; $3 million for South Live Oak redevelopment; [and] $5.5 million for First Baptist Church
   4. Since 2007, Tomball Economic Development Corp. has funded $5.1 million in city projects, according to the budget presentation.
   5. [A link is provided to the TEDC’s budget document.]
   6. MIKE: I got a little curious about the “First Baptist Church expenses”, so I followed the story link provided.
   7. MIKE: It seems that the City of Tomball purchased the land from the church in early 2003. The city’s plan is to use the more than 4.5 acres of the property in some portion of Tomball’s redevelopment plans for downtown.
   8. MIKE: The link for that is embedded in the story, plus I’ve included a reference link below my comments in the blog post.
   9. REFERENCE: Tomball Economic Development Corp. shifts focus to Old Town redevelopment with pending church sale; By Anna Lotz | COMMUNITYIMPACT.COM | 3:19 PM Mar 23, 2023 CDT / Updated 3:19 PM Mar 23, 2023 CDT
3. Residents push back against public comment restrictions in Missouri City; by Briah Lumpkins | HOUSTONLANDING.ORG | August 20, 2024 | 4:00 am. TAGS: Missouri City (TX), Public Comment Restrictions,
   1. Speaking up at city council meetings had created tangible change for Missouri City residents like Bob David. 
   2. In March, he and his neighbors appeared before council to oppose a hotel development that would take up 17 acres of land near their homes. Their list of concerns were long: the potential threat to wildlife, impact on drainage and potential traffic congestion were just a few. 
   3. After several meetings of the group expressing their opposition, the developer pulled their zoning request – a win for the neighborhood, David said. 
   4. But in a recent move by council to make meetings more [quote, unquote] “efficient,” council has voted to eliminate public comment on non-agenda items, a move some residents feel is an attempt to stifle their voices. 
   5. “In their mind, they’re saying that by reducing or taking off the non-agenda speaking time, it’s going to make their meetings more efficient. But at the end of the day, they’re there because the public hired them to be there,” David said. “And if they’re removing what a public citizen wants to say whether it’s on the agenda or not, that’s removing a citizen’s right and ability to be heard.” 
   6. In an attempt to reverse this decision, residents have created a petition to reinstate public comments on non-agenda items.
   7. [Said resident Dinishi Abayarathna,] “It reduces their accountability to public comments, and reduces the public’s ability to actually collaborate with each other and hear about issues that the public thinks is important during these city council meetings.”
   8. … The decision by Missouri City Council to eliminate public comment on non-agenda items came not only as a surprise to residents, but also to Councilmember Jeffery L. Boney. 
   9. In July, Council had a second reading of an ordinance that proposed cutting time dedicated to public comments on non-agenda items in half. Instead, Councilmember Sonya Brown-Marshall proposed following state law and eliminating the time for non-agenda items all together. 
   10. “Just because you can do something doesn’t mean you should,” Boney said of the decision. “I would never want to silence the voice of our residents and our stakeholders.” 
   11. This vote, which passed 4-2, made Missouri City the second major city in Fort Bend County to eliminate public comment on non-agenda items. Sugar Land has not allowed public comment on non-agenda items for more than 20 years, city spokesman Doug Adolph said. 
   12. This effort was the latest in a series to make council meetings more efficient since City Council meetings were already running long, Boney said. Sometimes, meetings ran past midnight. 
   13. In the past, council had taken action such as pushing up council meetings by 30 minutes or moving some agenda items to other various city meetings. 
   14. “This is not our full-time job,” [Boney] said. “… You could find yourself having your quality of life being impacted and possibly not as effective as you want to be because you’re drained.” 
   15. While [Boney ] was in favor of reducing the time for public comment on non-agenda items, he was not at all in favor of eliminating them completely. Even though public comments aren’t required by law, some people come with valuable information, he said. 
   16. “I want to hear from our residents. I want to hear from our stakeholders,” he said. “And yes, while we may be accessible by way of email, there are things that I don’t hear and I don’t get and I don’t see, if not for some of those people coming before Council.” 
   17. Boney reiterated that the purpose of city council meetings is to conduct city business. 
   18. “We have contracts to vote on resolutions, ordinances — things that allow us to maintain and move the city forward,” he said. “The allowance of public comments prior to my arrival on city council and even since is really a courtesy to the public.” 
   19. Open government lawyer Joe Larsen said that local governments should seek input from the community on how their decisions or lack thereof are impacting them.
   20. “Are they just being nice to the people who voted them into office by allowing them to express concerns they have about how the community is being run?” [Larsen] said. “That doesn’t ring true to me. … It’s like, well, who’s in charge here? Is it the people? Is this really a government of the people, by the people, for the people, or is this allowing public participation just a courtesy?” 
   21. … Toward the end of the July 1 meeting, Brown-Marshall said it was a difficult decision to make, but not all residents approach council with accurate information. And state law does not allow council members to respond to residents during public comment. 
   22. “It was really hard to make such a motion,” she said. “But we just don’t have a way to defend ourselves.” 
   23. Brown-Marshall and fellow councilmembers assured the public that they are easily accessible to them. 
   24. [Mayor Pro-Tem Lynn Clouser said,] “We are not, as the narrative says, ‘trying to silence.’ We are definitely not doing that. [He continued,] “I believe that all of my colleagues are accessible. And when you email us, when you call us, we reply.” 
   25. While this decision by Missouri City is legal, it can create transparency issues, Larsen said. Although council members may be available to chat outside of city council meetings, there is something to be said about residents speaking in a public forum as opposed to private conversations, Larsen said. 
   26. “The comments that are being made are being heard by everybody,” he said. “If transparency is just between a few, then that’s not really transparency.” …
   27. The Houston Landing reached out to all seven city council members to request an interview. Councilmembers Boney, Monica Riley and Floyd Emery responded, but only Boney was able to be reached for an interview. 
   28. When asked if he’d consider putting the issue of speaking time for non-agenda items back on the agenda, Boney said it depends. When council was considering this ordinance, he said few community members spoke against striking public comments.  
   29. “I wouldn’t want to put something on an agenda that’s going to kind of fail; you know, kind of be dead on arrival, right?” he said. “I don’t think that that is a prudent decision. I would have liked to have had those residents that had these concerns to have shown up for the meeting to express themselves.” 
   30. MIKE: I think that this is a serious issue, deserving of the time I’ve given to it here. My initial sense from the headline was that this change in rules might be nefarious. A way to prevent Missouri City citizens from (quote/unquote) “interfering” in decisions that Council felt were “best” for the city.
   31. MIKE: But after reading the whole article, I can see the validity of opinions from both sides.
   32. MIKE: Perhaps there’s a middle ground here. Maybe people who want to publicly speak to Council can request speaking slots in advance to an individual designated to take these requests and respond to them.
   33. MIKE: Time constraints can be designated per person. If there are enough requests, a separate meeting can be scheduled to accommodate them. If there are only a few requests that can be slotted into a regular council meeting, time can be allotted for them.
   34. MIKE: In my humble opinion, perhaps an idea along these lines can be considered by Missouri City Council to address the legitimate concerns of both sides.
4. Bellaire officials call for $70M in bond referendums to fund stormwater, wastewater projects; By Cassandra Jenkins | COMMUNITYIMPACT.COM | 2:50 PM Aug 20, 2024 CDT / Updated 2:50 PM Aug 20, 2024 CDT. TAGS: City Of Bellaire, Stormwater Projects, Wastewater Projects,
   1. Residents of Bellaire will be asked to vote on $70 million in bond referendums this November to fund stormwater and wastewater projects.
   2. The $70 million package will be separated into two ballot items, including a $30 million bond for water and wastewater improvements, and a $40 million bond for stormwater improvements.
   3. Assistant City Manager and City Engineer Beth Jones gave a presentation at an Aug. 19 Bellaire City Council meeting on the projects that are included in the bond proposal.
   4. Stormwater projects that would be supported in part by the $40 million bond include: Cypress Ditch widening [at a$90 million…; Property acquisition [at] $8 million …; [and] Detention construction [at $12 million] …
   5. The estimated cost for all stormwater projects is $110 million. Jones said supplemental funding will help close the remaining funding gap, including through partnerships, federal and state appropriations, grants, and property exchange.
   6. If the bond is approved, construction is anticipated to start on Cypress Ditch in fall 2025.
   7. … Wastewater projects include demolishing Bellaire’s current lift station and connecting to Houston’s Wastewater Treatment Plant at a cost of $30 million. …
   8. [Three other options for this project had been considered.]
   9. … Connecting to Houston’s lift station would not only save money, but it would also allow for continued city collection services, and for passive recreation such as green space and trails to be built, Jones said. It also clears the path for the Cypress Ditch project.
   10. Water projects funded by the bond could include replacing water lines, fixing storage tanks and providing a backup generator for the Renwick water plant.
   11. More information on the bond projects are expected to be shared during a Regional Drainage Improvement Program open house at 6 p.m. Aug. 20 at Bellaire City Hall.
   12. If the bond is approved by voters, Chief Financial Officer Terrence Beaman said staff will account for it in the tax rate set in fiscal year 2025-26.
   13. The general election is Nov. 5. The deadline for voter registration is Oct. 7.
   14. MIKE: I have nothing to add to this except to inform you of the proposed bond issues and to note the registration and election dates.
5. The Miles exodus continues; by Charles Kuffner | OFFTHEKUFF.COM | Posted on August 20, 2024. TAGS: School Enrollment Decline, Houston ISD, Superintendent Mike Miles, Mike Miles, Mike Morath, schools, STAAR, Texas Education Agency,
   1. KUFF: Early attendance data shows a significant drop in enrollment at HISD, especially at NES campuses. School districts always start with fewer students than they end up with, as some kids return more slowly than others, but this is not a good start.
   2. EXCERPTED FROM CHRON ARTICLE: About 9,000 students have left HISD after a tumultuous first year under state control; By Nusaiba Mizan, Megan Menchaca, Staff writers | HOUSTONCHRONICLE.COM | Aug 19, 2024
   3. Sarah Malik used to think Houston ISD’s Lantrip Elementary School was a great fit for her daughter.
   4. But after the state takeover of the district in June 2023, Malik said the environmental science magnet school in Eastwood, which they loved for the tenured teachers and welcoming community, began to change. Her child’s art teacher was reassigned, and students were discouraged from reading books after finishing their work, she said.
   5. After the school’s principal and several teachers departed in the spring, Malik knew they had to go. Her daughter is now enrolled in The Kipling School, a private campus.
   6. “We were blindsided all year with the changes that were happening,” Malik said.
   7. Malik is one of thousands of parents who pulled their child from HISD this year. Several told the Chronicle they were leaving the district due to the stringent reforms, plummeting morale, principal and teacher departures or cookie-cutter lessons that they said did not account for a child’s individual learning needs during the previous academic year. …
   8. HISD’s reported “membership,” or the number of students enrolled in the district on a specific day, was about 170,800 on Thursday, down by about 9,000 students, or 5%, compared to the fourth day of school last year, according to district data. The early data, however, does not reflect the official enrollment count of the state’s largest school district.
   9. The district’s official enrollment will not be finalized until Oct. 25, but it appears to be on track to drop below 180,000 students this year. It reported an enrollment of about 184,000 students last year, and budget documents project enrollment to drop to about 179,600 this year, which would be its lowest enrollment in at least a decade.
   10. State-appointed Superintendent Mike Miles said “people have different circumstances”, so HISD enrollment will fluctuate for the first few weeks of the school year, which started two weeks earlier than last year. [Miles] said during a news conference last week that he is going to see where the dust settles before analyzing enrollment or retention strategies.
   11. “Just like every year, students enroll over the next two or three weeks,” Miles said. “We will have kids coming to school all the way until Labor Day. … The numbers are changing every day … but we feel confident that we’re going to keep growing in our enrollment until September.” […]
   12. Virginia Snodgrass Rangel, an associate professor in the University of Houston’s College of Education, said although HISD saw improved performance on the reading and math State of Texas Assessments of Academic Readiness [STAAR], the culture changes in the district’s schools have driven some students out — and it will be tough to convince them to come back.
   13. [Snodgrass Rangel said,] “Culture is probably an important reason to consider why families might leave, and I hope that the district can figure out how to ensure a basic level of quality, while also making sure schools continue to be a good place to learn and a good place for teachers and principals to work.”
   14. Similarly to last year, the district’s data shows membership declines are largest within schools in the New Education System [NES] program that was implemented last year, although the number of students at non-NES schools has declined as well. The NES model includes standardized [curriculums] that teachers must follow, extended campus hours, timed lessons, and the conversion of libraries to Team Centers.
   15. NES campuses reported an 8% decline in the number of students enrolled on the fourth day, while membership at non-NES campuses decreased by less than 3%. The starkest divide was among middle schools, where NES programs lost about 11% of students compared to less than a 1% decline at non-NES campuses.
   16. The district’s declining enrollment, however, is not new this year, but a years-long trend faced by several large urban school districts, and it predates the appointment of the board and superintendent to the 274-campus district. Measured every October, enrollment in the last decade peaked in the 2016-17 school year at 216,106.
   17. “I don’t know that HISD is unique overall (in its enrollment decline,) but when you disaggregate these numbers, the numbers are clearly driven by the NES schools, and that suggests that there’s something unique that’s happening in HISD that likely is connected to the reform,” Snodgrass Rangel said.
   18. KUFF: A precipitous enrollment decline, led by the parents who have the means to take their kids elsewhere, has long been one of my main fears about the effects of the Miles takeover. Turns out that the more you make a place unpleasant to be, the more that people don’t want to be there.
   19. Miles is right about one thing, that the Day One numbers are always lower than the final tally will be. Some number of students do indeed not show up right away, for a variety of reasons. We’ll get a more accurate count in a few weeks. But the fact remains that HISD projected a mild decline in the population, with Miles even speculating that the recent STAAR results might lure some people back. At this point, it would take a miracle to get close to that optimistic assessment.
   20. [KUFF finishes by saying,] We may have another year of improved performance on the metrics that Miles was brought in to improve. That would be good, and also bring us a step closer to kicking his ass to the curb. Whatever does happen there, it’s nearly impossible at this point for me to call this experience “successful”, even if it does succeed by its own standard. It’s going to take a long time to undo the damage. I will forever be furious about that.
   21. MIKE: I can’t improve on anything Kuff had to say, so I’ll move on to the next story.
   22. Related Posts: HISD reports significant drop in D and F-rated campuses; Are we really gonna take this show on the road?; HISD reports improvements on high school end of course exams;
6. This is a long excerpt that includes most of the original story, but I feel compelled to read it because it makes me really angry — Queer students look for alternatives after Texas A&M ends transgender health care services; By Dante Motley | TEXASTRIBUNE.ORG | Aug. 21, 2024. TAGS: LGBTQ+, Queer, Health care, Higher education, Texas A&M University-College Station
   1. Juniper Danielson, a former Texas A&M student who received hormone replacement therapy through the university, recalled how easy the process was, especially after spending years on a waitlist for an endocrinologist in the Houston area, where she is from.
   2. Danielson and Matthia Klatt, a current student who also benefited from the service, said getting transition-related care on campus started with an information session in which a doctor explained potential risks, health changes and personal medical considerations. After understanding and agreeing to those terms, they took blood tests to confirm suitability for the treatment. Informed consent was crucial, Klatt and Danielson said.
   3. But getting gender transitioning care is no longer possible after the university suspended those services on Aug. 1.
   4. In response to questions about why A&M discontinued the medical care, a university spokesperson said its growing student population and the resulting strain on the A.P. Beutel Health Center require officials to continuously review the services they offer and how they use the center’s resources. The spokesperson noted that the university has invested more in mental health care following a national rise in college students seeking it out.
   5. Transgender and queer students are skeptical of that explanation and believe the university acted in response to pressure from conservative groups. They say the move shows the university is not willing to support them equally.
   6. “It just seems that they don’t take the same level of care to address concerns of the queer community as they would other communities,” Klatt said.
   7. Students saw the move as part of a political environment that has become increasingly hostile against LGBTQ+ people in Texas. And it comes as the state’s public universities face top-down pressure to appease Republican leaders — or risk incurring their wrath during next year’s legislative session.
   8. For Danielson and Klatt, no more access to transition-related care at the university means students will lose more than their prescriptions. It means no more access to medical professionals on campus and on call. It means no more easily available blood tests. It means discontinuing the physical and mental changes that hormone replacement therapy provides.
   9. “Losing the care means that you have to look at yourself and see someone that you’re not anytime you look in a mirror,” Danielson said. “It’s hard to go back to after having access to just being yourself.” …
   10. Six other Texas public universities with health clinics confirmed to The Texas Tribune that they do not provide transition-related care; several others did not directly confirm or deny it. The University of Houston said it doesn’t offer such care but provides primary and psychiatric services and refers student patients to specialty services.
   11. A&M informed students on July 1 that it would stop offering transition-related services, a month before the change went into effect. To Klatt, that was a short window of time for students — especially for those who might not be on campus during the summer — to find different health care options.
   12. The care the university provided was cheap, even without insurance, Klatt said. Now, she has to quickly find care elsewhere. She is working with a virtual Planned Parenthood to get help. The Planned Parenthood in Bryan, one of the two cities that house the A&M system’s flagship, closed over a decade ago. …
   13. In an email, Tiffany Skaggs, a senior director with A&M’s health services, said students who needed to transition to a different health care option for hormone replacement therapy can call her department for assistance in getting alternate care.
   14. But Kenna Ashen with the Queer Empowerment Council, an LGBTQ+ student group at A&M, said finding alternatives is no easy task. Recent anti-trans legislation in the state has forced transition-related care providers to shut down or move elsewhere. The places trans students can go for care are now limited and overwhelmed, with waiting lists that stretch for months, Ashen said. …
   15. Sophia Ahmend, a doctoral student in Materials Science and Engineering and the president of the Queer Empowerment Council, questioned how the university made the decision to discontinue transition-related care at its health center, saying she has seen an increase in the number of students seeking it.
   16. “The nutritional services, the physical therapy, not every student is in need of or want all of those,” Ahmend said. “But what if those were to get removed? It just happens that they choose this, which sucks.”
   17. Ashen, who is trans but is not receiving hormone replacement therapy, said A&M’s trans community feels targeted by the university’s recent actions and other state efforts.
   18. Texas lawmakers proposed a series of bills aimed at LGBTQ+ people last year. While many failed, new restrictions on drag shows and transition-related care for minors
   19. Many proposals focused specifically on trans people, and health experts say the political attacks on them have had a negative impact on their mental health. This population is already vulnerable, with higher rates of suicide and self-harm, data shows.
   20. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has also zeroed in on queer issues. He sued the Biden administration earlier this summer over a federal rule that he argued would force states to fund and require health care providers to perform transition-related procedures under Medicaid. This month, a Texas federal judge ruled in Paxton’s favor in a different suit against the Biden administration. The attorney general argued against the administration’s efforts to extend anti-discrimination protections to LGBTQ+ students.
   21. “The whole environment of the country right now is scary, sad and disappointing,” Klatt said.
   22. Public universities have also been in lawmakers’ crosshairs in recent years. …
   23. Students said they worry about the influence of outside conservative media and alumni groups on university system leadership.
   24. Before A&M ceased offering transition-related care, the conservative website Texas Scorecard published an article that called out the Queer Empowerment Council for a presentation on how to obtain hormone replacement therapy. Texas Scorecard is the media wing of Empower Texans, a hardline conservative group that holds sway with Texas politicians.
   25. Last month, the university’s student newspaper published two emails alumni sent to the A&M System’s Board of Regents, chancellor and the university’s president speaking against transition-related health care. …
   26. [In an email sent by Neuropsychologist Clifford Hopewell to the A&M System’s Board of Regents, chancellor, and the university’s president speaking against transition-related health care, Hopewell — an A&M alumnus and former president of the Texas Psychological Association — said that hormone replacement therapy was “malpractice” and that the university was opening itself up to lawsuits by providing transition-related care.]
   27. Hani Talebi, the current president of the Texas Psychological Association … said that the TPA aligns itself with the American Psychological Association, the American Medical Association, the American Academy of Pediatrics and the American Psychiatric Association, all of which endorse unobstructed access to transition-related care.
   28. Hani pointed to a February statement by the American Psychological Association affirming its commitment to evidence-based, inclusive health care for trans individuals. The statement emphasized the importance of providing access to transition-related care, which is rooted in psychological and clinical science.
   29. An A&M spokesperson said the Texas Scorecard article and alumni letters did not influence the university’s decision to end transition-related services.
   30. MIKE: Like I said at the beginning, this story makes me angry. This is what government-institutionalized hate and discrimination look like.
   31. MIKE: The United States is supposed to be a nation where equal protection under the law is literally a Constitutional right. On the other hand, in Texas and other Red states, we seem to have systems of equal oppression under the law.
   32. MIKE: These kinds of government-regularized discrimination and hate must be opposed by all people who actually do value freedom and liberty, because in Texas, this is just the opposite.
   33. MIKE: Martin Niemöller was a prominent Lutheran pastor in German. It is worth remembering and internalizing his famous postwar quote:
   34. MIKE: “First they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out—because I was not a socialist.
   35. MIKE: “Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out—because I was not a trade unionist.
   36. MIKE: “Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—because I was not a Jew.
   37. MIKE: “Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.”
   38. MIKE: This could describe Texas today. Who will be left to speak up for you and me if we don’t speak up for gays and queers and other vulnerable minorities?
   39. REFERENCE: Martin Niemöller: “First they came for…” — ENCYCLOPEDIA.USHMM.ORG (United States Holocaust Memorial Museum)
7. OPINION — How Harris Has Completely Upended the Presidential Race, in 14 Maps; By Doug Sosnik | NYTIMES.COM | 16, 2024. TAGS: Electoral College, National Popular Vote, Presidential Polling,
   1. MIKE: With so many national polls being discussed in the media, I have been frustrated by the lack of more granular coverage of the current polling breakdown for electoral votes, which is actually what matters, as we’ve been forced to remember over the last several decades when presidential candidates have won with the electoral college vote while losing in the popular vote.
   2. MIKE: So I’ve looked up current opinions of how the electoral votes break down according to various analyses of current polling.
   3. MIKE: As you might imagine, there is lots of variation in these guesstimates, but I can tell you that the average of opinions seems to confirm that the electoral votes are close, but with many tossups.
   4. MIKE: Each candidate has multiple pathways to an electoral victory, but the interesting development is how this map has changed since Kamala became the Democratic nominee.
   5. MIKE: Before Biden withdrew from the race in favor of Harris, his electoral map looked very discouraging, with almost no paths to a 270 electoral vote majority.
   6. MIKE: That has dramatically changed, with some pools showing Harris in a slim lead with many paths to victory among tossups. Similarly, some polls show Trump with a slight electoral lead with multiple paths to a victory among tossups.
   7. I will, however, read the introduction from a NY Times story that I think sums it up. It’s entitled — How Harris Has Completely Upended the Presidential Race, in 14 Maps; By Doug Sosnik, Graphics by Quoctrung Bui | NYTIMES.COM | 16, 2024.
   8. “With Kamala Harris now at the top of the ticket, the enthusiasm and confidence within the Democratic Party feel stronger than at any point I’ve seen since Barack Obama ran for president in 2008. And it’s not just vibes: The paths to victory in the Electoral College have been completely reshaped for the Democrats – and for Donald Trump – since my last analysis of the electoral map on July 12, nine days before Joe Biden exited the race.
   9. “Not only have Democrats come home to support their party’s nominee, they are now also more energized about the election than Republicans. Ms. Harris has quickly picked up support from nonwhite and younger voters. …”
   10. MIKE: Other than this intro, and rather than try to find one particular article to read to you, I’m going to provide a number of reference links under this story for you to evaluate on your own. You can find this story blog post at ThingwingRadio[dot]com.
   11. REFERENCE: How Harris Has Completely Upended the Presidential Race, in 14 Maps; By Doug Sosnik, Graphics by Quoctrung Bui | NYTIMES.COM | 16, 2024
   12. REFERENCE: 2024 Real Clear Polling Electoral College Map — REALCLEARPOLLING.COM
   13. REFERENCE: Taegan Goddard’s Electoral Vote Map —ELECTORALVOTEMAP.COM
   14. REFERENCE: CNN’s Road to 270 interactive — It takes at least 270 electoral votes to win the presidency. Plot each candidate’s best path to victory on our interactive map below.
   15. REFERENCE: 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map — 270TOWIN.COM
8. Revealed: Shell oil non-profit donated to anti-climate groups behind Project 2025; Foundation says it ‘does not endorse any organizations’ while funneling hundreds of thousands to rightwing causes. By Geoff Dembicki | THEGUARDIAN.COM | Thu 15 Aug 2024 @ 12.00 EDT / Last modified on Thu 15 Aug 2024 @ 13.14 EDT. TAGS: Shell, America’s dirty divide, Project 2025, Climate crisis, Oil and gas companies, Far right (US), Energy industry, Oil, Charitable Donation Matching Funds, 501(c)3,
   1. A US foundation associated with the oil company Shell has donated hundreds of thousands of dollars to religious right and conservative organizations, many of which deny that climate change is a crisis, tax records reveal.
   2. Fourteen of those groups are on the advisory board of Project 2025, a conservative blueprint proposing radical changes to the federal government, including severely limiting the Environment Protection Agency.
   3. Shell USA Company Foundation sent $544,010 between 2013 and 2022 to organizations that broadly share an agenda of building conservative power, including advocating against LGBTQ+ rights, restricting access to abortions, creating school lesson plans that downplay climate change and drafting a suite of policies aimed at overhauling the federal government.
   4. Donees include the Heartland Institute, a longtime purveyor of climate disinformation, which published a video on YouTube in May stating incorrectly that “the scientific data continue to show there is no climate crisis”. Other groups that have received donations include the American Family Association, which claims that the “climate change agenda is an attack on God’s creation”, as well as the Heritage Foundation, the lead organization behind Project 2025.
   5. “Shell has every reason to want to maintain close relationships with organizations that wield outsize political influence and just happen to reliably support the interests of the fossil fuel industry,” said Adrian Bardon, a professor of philosophy at Wake Forest University who has studied the religious right and climate denialism.
   6. The Shell USA Company Foundation helps employees boost their charitable giving to non-profits. A Shell USA spokesperson wrote via email that the company’s workers make the initial decision to donate “to non-profit (tax exempt) organizations of their choice”.
   7. According to the company’s online donation portal, Shell will match individual donations up to $7,500. The spokesperson confirmed that the foundation “matches employee gifts to such qualified 501(c)(3) nonprofit agencies”, but did not respond to specific inquiries about which organizations, if any, received matching donations from the foundation.
   8. Tax records from 2022 show that the president of the foundation was Gretchen Watkins, the current president of Shell USA. But the foundation itself “does not endorse any organizations” and “giving is a personal decision not directed by the company”, the spokesperson added. …
   9. Because the foundation itself is a registered non-profit, it must file public returns each year with the IRS, which contain detailed information about the organizations to which it donates. The vast majority of these non-profits have no explicit political focus. They include YMCAs, youth groups, local churches, schools and mainstream charities such as Oxfam and United Way.
   10. But an analysis by the Guardian and DeSmog found at least 21 groups supported by Shell’s foundation that are aggressively opposed to progressive cultural and economic change, including addressing the crisis of global heating.
   11. “They’re all certainly working in the rightwing policy and propaganda space,” said Peter Montgomery, research director at the progressive non-profit organization People for the American Way. “That includes the anti-regulation corporate right and the culture warriors of the religious right.” …
   12. MIKE: The article than lists a number of organizations and the amounts that the Shell USA Company Foundation has matched in donations to those organizations. Included among the high profile 501(c)3’s are the Heritage Foundation and some associated with Project 2025. Among the listed are organizations that are climate deniers, are very rightwing, and some are considered hate groups by the Southern Poverty Law Center.
   13. MIKE: The story’s last paragraph concludes with this:
   14. “In the absence of real transparency, one can only speculate on the motives behind these donations,” Bardon said. But the contributions help Shell maintain its place within a broader conservative coalition, he argued. “So if something comes up that bothers me, it’s going to bother you, too, because we’re on the same team,” he said.
   15. MIKE: As many of you will probably agree when reading the beneficiary groups listed, your knee-jerk reaction will be anger, as was mine. But there was an important informational component missing that I considered conspicuous by its absence.
   16. MIKE: Namely, did the Shell USA Company Foundation also match employee donations to any charitable organizations that might be considered liberal or leftwing? This story doesn’t say one way or the other.
   17. MIKE: This leads me to the question of whether the goal of this investigatory piece was specifically to generate outrage.
   18. MIKE: I’m not tax expert, nor am I an expert on charitable matching funds by foundations, so keep that in mind as I offer my thoughts on this article.
   19. MIKE: Let’s consider … The employee donations matched were from Shell employees. Possibly, people working for Shell might be disproportionately sympathetic to these rightwing, Christian conservative, global warming-denying 501(c)3 groups. That could account for these numbers.
   20. MIKE: Also, Shell executives are Shell employees, and some of them might also be sympathetic to these rightwing causes and have the income to make substantial donations that would then be matched.
   21. MIKE: There is something else to consider here. Could Shell have a list of 501(c)3 organizations that it approves or disapproves for a match?
   22. MIKE: I did some research on this. As I’m understanding what I found, foundations can or must include or exclude certain categories of giving — such as religious or political giving —from their matching, but it seems like excluding specific 501(c)3’s is more problematic.
   23. MIKE: It appears that while a company matching program can designate specific categories of giving, such as community service, education, scientific research, etc., organizations within those designations that are in good standing with the IRS cannot be discriminated against, even if some find their goals deplorable.
   24. MIKE: If any listeners can further educate us on this, please let me know at my website or Facebook page.
   25. MIKE: Below my comments are some reference links I found.
   26. REFERENCE: IRS Tax Exempt and Government Entities Division — GOV (PDF)
   27. REFERENCE: Does Your Matching Gift Program Lack Equity And Inclusion? — FORBES.COM
   28. REFERENCE: What Are Restricted Funds? — 501c3.ORG
   29. REFERENCE: SPLC Hatewatch — SPLCENTER.ORG/HATEWATCH
   30. REFERENCE: org philanthropic priorities — WALMART.ORG
   31. REFERENCE: What is a qualified charitable distribution? — FIDELITYCHARITABLE.ORG
9. MIKE: As a related aside to the previous story, I thought that this might be interesting to some folks.
   1. MIKE: According to a Wikipedia article that reminds me of something I have heard previously, “When campaigns say they will match political contributions, it is not clear how they can legally do that, given campaign contribution limits.^[22] Matching does not show up on Federal Election Commission reports, because each individual donor is listed separately with only the total dollar amount given for the donor.^[23] Campaign finance attorneys have said there is nothing in election law that prohibits campaigns from making false claims about their matching donor schemes.^[24] Some experts have said that the claims of matching funds are outright lies.^[25] It is a “marketing gimmick”, Richard Hasen, an election law professor at the University of California-Irvine, said in 2013.^[26]”
   2. MIKE: One of the articles cited is called, “The anatomy of a misleading fundraising email”, by Dave Levinthal from March 29, 2013. It makes for interesting reading.
   3. MIKE: For your convenience, I’ve linked to articles in my comments. It cites sources.
10. MIKE: While I don’t think it does affects the validity of the opinions expressed in this article, I feel I must note that this next story originated with Radio Free Europe and Radio Liberty. It’s from August 15. We’ll see if events outrun the opinion — The Real Reason Iran Hasn’t Retaliated Against Israel; By RFE/RL staff | OILPRICE.COM | Aug 15, 2024, 2:00 PM CDT. TAGS: Iran, Hamas, Israel,
    1. Iran has delayed its promised retaliation against Israel for the killing of a Hamas leader, creating a tense waiting game in the region.
    2. Analysts believe Iran’s hesitation stems from concerns about sparking a larger war and the complexities of coordinating with its allies.
    3. Increased US military presence in the region and diplomatic efforts may also be influencing Iran’s decision-making.
    4. Iran has kept the world on edge since it promised to strike Israel more than two weeks ago — a move experts say could plunge the region into an all-out war.
    5. The promised attack by [the] Islamic republic is meant as retaliation for the July 31 killing in Tehran of Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of the U.S.- and EU-designated Palestinian terrorist group Hamas.
    6. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said after the assassination that Iran was “duty-bound” to avenge its “guest.”
    7. An Iranian attack has been “imminent” for the past two weeks, and this anticipation has led to frequent bouts of hysteria on social media predicting an attack by Iran and its allies — including Lebanese militant group Hizballah — within hours.
    8. [Said Raz Zimmt, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv,] “I think they really enjoy that: watching Israel stuck in this waiting period, paying a heavy economic and psychological price.”
    9. But the fallout from the anticipation is a double-edged sword that also hurts Iran and its allies.
    10. “The negative impact on Israel, be it the stress to the home front, the military mobilization, and even the economic consequences, will not be limited to Israel, but also affect Iran and Lebanon,” warned Michael Horowitz, head of intelligence at the Bahrain-based Le Beck International consultancy.
    11. Why The Wait? — Analysts said the idea [that] Iran is delaying its retaliation because it is relishing the psychological impact it is having, is more of an excuse than a proper strategy.
    12. They agreed [that] intense domestic debates, the complexity of coordinating with proxies, and assessing the risks associated with an attack have all contributed to Iran’s hesitation.
    13. Zimmt said Iran is “facing a major dilemma” because while Khamenei and the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) want to restore Iran’s deterrence vis-a-vis Israel, there are elements in Iran that worry a large-scale attack could drag Iran into a war with Israel and maybe even the United States.
    14. Even if a decision on how to respond to Haniyeh’s killing has been made, coordinating with Hizballah and other members of the so-called axis of resistance — Tehran’s loosely-knit network of regional state and nonstate allies and proxies — is a time-consuming process.
    15. Another factor likely affecting Iran’s decision-making is the United States beefing up its military presence in the region more than it did in April ahead of Iran’s unprecedented drone and missile attack against Israel.
    16. “We’re seeing a bigger response [from the United States] than in April, which is probably meant to match the scope of the threat, as Iran may carry out a larger response than the one in April,” Horowitz said.
    17. “The message [from the United States] in sending both defensive assets — but also potentially offensive ones — is one of deterrence and perhaps the only kind of message that does truly matter at this stage.”
    18. Can Diplomacy Prevail? — Tehran has rebuffed calls by Western nations to show restraint, insisting it has a legitimate right to respond to Israel’s killing of Haniyeh on Iranian territory.
    19. Still, the flurry of phone calls made to new President Masud Pezeshkian and acting Foreign Minister Ali Baqeri-Kani have raised speculation that attempts at diplomacy have helped delay an attack and could potentially stave it off.
    20. “I am skeptical that diplomacy, on its own, is enough to truly change the Iranian calculus,” Horowitz said. “Iran will do what it feels is in its best interest, regardless of the calls and statements urging restraint.”
    21. But Iran has suggested a different kind of diplomacy could convince it to at least “delay” its promised attack: a permanent cease-fire in Gaza between Israel and Hamas.
    22. Farzan Sabet, senior research associate at the Geneva Graduate Institute, speculated [that] Iran “may be looking for off-ramps” to justify a toned-down response, and some kind of Gaza cease-fire could be just the “diplomatic victory” it needs to do that.
    23. Zimmt said a Gaza cease-fire may not be important to Iran but it does provide Tehran with “an excuse or an explanation to legitimize this delay, both internally and mostly externally.”
    24. He said a cease-fire could lead to Iran either reducing the scale of its attack or choosing a different method of retaliation altogether that does not involve a direct strike on Israel.
    25. No Good Options —It remains a mystery when and how Iran is going to respond, but as things stand Tehran does not seem to have any good options.
    26. “Decision-makers in Tehran may have vacillated in finding a ‘Goldilocks’ option,” Sabet said.
    27. That, he explained, is Iran’s conundrum to deliver “a retaliatory strike that is not so weak as to have little symbolic or deterrent value, but not so strong as to cause an uncontrolled cycle of escalation that leads to a larger war.”
    28. Tehran is effectively left with either a weak response or one that crosses the threshold of war.
    29. Both options “entail significant risks,” Horowitz said, “either for Iran’s regional projection power or the risks Iran could take if it crosses a line and is hit back in return.”
    30. MIKE: It’s a truism proven many times even in recent history that wars are much easier to get into than to get out of.
    31. MIKE: I’m 73 years old, and the Middle East has been a tinder box of hostility for my entire life. Just off the top of my head, I think there have been 6 wars involving Israel and neighboring states and non-state actors while I’ve been alive.
    32. MIKE: MIKE: MIKE: This does not include what might be called violent unrest in the occupied territories or Israel itself. It also doesn’t include civil wars and unrest in countries surrounding Israel that have in some ways threatened to involve Israel.
    33. MIKE: So getting back to the Iranian geopolitical conundrum, Iran might be very worried — and justifiably so —- about what kind of retaliation will quickly spin out of control, because it has limited control over other well-armed actors with whom it is allied. Hamas, Hezbollah, and various other Iranian proxies in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and elsewhere all have their own agendas. How will they react to perceived opportunities Iran might present to them with a retaliatory strike against Israel, and how might they decide to take advantage of it achieve their own objectives? For some of these groups, their objectives are maintaining regional unrest with the hope that crises will provide them with opportunities, or will prevent other players from achieving their
    34. MIKE: This is the explosive stew that Iran has to consider.
11. This next story also originated from Radio Free Europe and Radio Liberty by way of OILPRICE[DOT]COM — Kazakhstan Calls for a Russia-Free Defense Bloc in Central Asia; By RFE/RL staff | OILPRICE.COM | Aug 16, 2024, 11:00 AM CDT. (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) is an American government-funded international media organization that broadcasts and reports news, information, and analyses to Eastern Europe, Central Asia, the Caucasus, and the Middle East.) TAGS: Central Asian Countries, Central Asia, Russia, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Kazakh President Toqaev, Ukraine War, Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO),
    1. … Kazakh President Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev has mastered the art of getting a timely message across while leaving his audience pondering what the message means.
    2. His call last week for closer defense cooperation among Central Asian countries is a case in point.
    3. The proposal didn’t go unnoticed by the pro-Kremlin commentariat in Russia, which sees Central Asian security as well within its sphere of privileged interests, despite the war in Ukraine.
    4. And it won a ringing endorsement from a pro-government media outlet in Azerbaijan, a country that last month participated in rare Russia-free military drills with Central Asian countries in western Kazakhstan.
    5. But were Toqaev’s words anything more than posturing?
    6. [Said Luca Anceschi, a lecturer at the University of Glasgow,] “Since the war in Ukraine began, Central Asia has had a chance to reinvent itself in a comfortable geopolitical space. They are trying to say that they are not on Russia’s side in Ukraine, like Belarus is, but they are not with Ukraine either. They have ties with the West but are not pro-Western,” Anceschi told RFE/RL. … “But as the war goes on, as the discussion around secondary sanctions grows, perhaps the region’s governments see that this space is shrinking somewhat.”
    7. All the more reason then, to emphasize regional integration on Central Asian terms, which is precisely what Toqaev did in an op-ed prefacing the sixth consultative meeting of the presidents of Central Asia in Astana on August 9.
    8. At the same time, “initiatives for integration inside Central Asia are often very vague on details and sometimes amount to no more than empty rhetoric,” Anceschi argued.
    9. The main impetus towards closer cooperation in Central Asia has come from Uzbekistan, the region’s most populous country and the only one to share a border with every country in the region. …
    10. In an August 14 article on this topic, former Uzbek Foreign Minister and special presidential aide on foreign policy Abdulaziz Komilov wrote that Uzbekistan “had assumed a special responsibility for the future of Central Asia” by “completely abandoning outdated approaches to establishing relations with neighbors.” …
    11. [It] is fair to say that Uzbekistan’s ties with all of its Central Asian neighbors have improved under Mirziyoev …
    12. At the same time, the region’s countries have traditionally had stronger economic and political relationships with China and Russia than within the region.
    13. So Toqaev’s op-ed on stronger regional ties, published by the state-run Kazakhstanskaya Pravda, [called,] “Central Asian Renaissance: Towards Sustainable Development And Prosperity”, was bound to raise eyebrows.
    14. Because beyond stressing Central Asia’s unique history and economic potential, Toqaev also called for “cooperation in defense and security” and even the “creation of a regional security architecture” that would include a “catalogue of security risks” for Central Asia.
    15. These were naturally the parts of the op-ed noticed by commentators in Russia, whose war in Ukraine was referred to obliquely by the author in terms of instability on the region’s perimeter.
    16. For pro-Kremlin nationalist television and radio personality Sergei Mardan, Toqaev’s words indicated that Kazakhstan had lost faith in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a Russian-dominated military bloc that includes the Central Asian countries of Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.
    17. Mardan argued that the CSTO had saved Toqaev and his administration from “the revolution of the Mambets” — code for Kazakhstan’s deadly January 2022 unrest, which left more than 230 dead and prompted an intervention by a Russian-led CSTO peacekeeping force.
    18. In using “Mambets,” Mardan was employing a slur for rural Kazakhs that is from the Soviet era.
    19. But Mardan told his some 240,000 followers on Telegram that “the idea of forming a defense union in Central Asia cannot be called viable.” …
    20. A “defense union” was not the exact phrase used by Toqaev, who made sure to mention in his article he backed the participation of Central Asian states in a range of groupings, including the CSTO and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
    21. But the idea of a Central Asian NATO was seized upon in other Russian commentaries about the Kazakh president’s article.
    22. In [an] August 12 column …, author Fedor Kirsanov insisted that the apparent proposal for a new regional bloc likely originated with the British intelligence agency MI6. …
    23. Then there was the Russian-focused YouTube channel Khod Mysley (more than 450,000 subscribers), whose author questioned whether Toqaev was following Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian, who “under the leadership of the Anglo-Saxons, is slowly but surely turning Armenia from a friend of Russia into an enemy.”
    24. Kazakhstan has been accustomed to this kind of hostile Russian rhetoric since it failed to back Russia’s 2022 invasion — which occurred just a month after the historic unrest known as Bloody January.
    25. But if Toqaev’s musings went down badly in Russia, they were praised in Baku by the privately owned Haqqin media outlet — which is often viewed as having close ties to hawks in the Azerbaijani regime. …
    26. The view from Baku is even more interesting in light of both the Birlestik-2024 military drills that involved Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan in western Kazakhstan last month and the small-scale naval exercises involving Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan in Baku’s section of the Caspian Sea last year.
    27. Azerbaijan — which shares Turkic heritage with four of the five Central Asian states — has become a source of admiration for some analysts in the region since Turkey-allied Baku reclaimed militarily the contested territory of Nagorno-Karabakh from nominal Russian partner Armenia. …
    28. Nevertheless, argues Fuad Shahbazov, a Baku-based political analyst, nobody is really seeking out new Eurasian military alliances at this point.
    29. “Azerbaijan believes that deepening ties with Central Asia gives it more room to maneuver,” Shahbazov said, noting that Baku is pursuing a similar drive with other countries against a souring of ties with the West and its traditionally complicated ties with Russia.
    30. But in the long term, the analyst says, Azerbaijan views Central Asia through the prism of trade, specifically the Middle Corridor — a 6,500-kilometer trade route connecting China to Europe through Central Asia and the Caucasus but bypassing Russia — rather than security.
    31. “With Kazakhstan, [Baku’s interest] is more about energy and logistics,” Shahbazov told RFE/RL.
    32. MIKE: The full article is actually even a bit longer than what I just read, but I felt that it had enough potential geopolitical significance to devote the time to it.
    33. MIKE: As some comments in the article suggest, this proposal may come to nothing, but the very fact that it’s being floated is significant to Russia, as is exemplified by the many negative Russian comments in the story that I mostly didn’t include.
    34. MIKE: The closest analogy I can think of for the United States would be if Mexico became so disenchanted with US policy that Mexico’s president suggested a new security alliance between Mexico and the Central American states, and possibly including Venezuela.
    35. MIKE: That would be an enormous blow to the US’s geopolitical position in literally its own backyard. And this is exactly how Russia sees this Kazakh initiative.
    36. MIKE: This analogy is not perfect, but it may give you a taste of how the Russians might perceive this story.
    37. MIKE: Wars historically tend to change the pre-existing diplomatic and geopolitical architecture, often in unforeseen ways. That is what is developing from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
    38. MIKE: Consider — Russia has been so economically and geopolitically damaged that it’s become almost a vassal state of China. Russia now exports raw materials such as oil and gas and minerals to China while importing Chinese finished goods and technology products. That’s an almost mercantilist relationship that must really hurt the Russian historical ego.
    39. MIKE: At the same time, Russia is now relying on China as a source of capital and foreign currency for trade.
    40. MIKE: The war has also instigated and strengthened an improbable partnership of Russia, Iran, North Korea, and effectively China.
    41. MIKE: Russia’s invasion has expanded NATO with the addition of Sweden and Finland, an extraordinary diplomatic and military coup for the West that changes NATO’s entire military playbook for defense. This was the opposite of Russia’s claimed purpose for the Ukraine invasion in the first place. New Russian militarism has caused the US and EU, as well as other countries, to begin expanding their defense industries to defend against further possible Russian aggression.
    42. MIKE: All this appears to be a huge net negative for a Russia that has still failed to meet most of its initial objectives in Ukraine while leading to a huge number of setbacks.
    43. MIKE: And the dust of these historic shifts has not even begun to settle. Stay tuned.

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