Now in our 12th year on KPFT!

Going forward, new shows will post for Thursday at 6PM (CT) broadcast and re-run on Sundays at 1PM and Wednesdays at 11AM.

AUDIO:

TOPICS:

1. Texas lawmaker files bill to reduce “forever chemicals” in sewage-based fertilizer;
2. South Texas coal-fired power plant to switch to clean energy after receiving more than $1 billion in federal money;
3. The Vulture Capitalists Strike Again — Party City Fired Everyone Without Severance Right Before Christmas;
4. Italy bristles at prospect of Russia moving ships from Syria to Libya;
5. S. tech continues to power Russian weapons despite export controls, Senate Democrats find;
6. Russia’s elite sound the alarm on the economy amid high interest rates;
7. Syria’s rebel leaders say they’ve broken with their jihadist past – can they be trusted?;
8. Syria’s new leadership to consolidate all armed rebel factions into defense ministry;

Welcome to Thinkwing Radio with Mike Honig where we discuss local, state, national, and international stories. 

Thinkwing Radio with Mike Honig (@ThinkwingRadio) is now on Wednesdays at 11AM (CT) or Thursdays at 6PM on KPFT 90.1 FM-HD2, Houston’s Community Media. You can also hear the show:

1. Live online at KPFT.org (from anywhere in the world!)
2. Podcast on your phone’s Podcast App
3. Visiting Archive.KPFT.ORG

Except for timely election info, the extensive list of voting resources will now be at the end.

Welcome to Thinkwing Radio with Mike Honig on KPFT Houston at 90.1-HD2, Galveston 89.5-HD2, and Huntsville at 91.9-HD2. KPFT is Houston’s Community Media. On this show, we discuss local, state, national, and international stories that may have slipped under your radar.

1. Texas lawmaker files bill to reduce “forever chemicals” in sewage-based fertilizer; By Alejandra Martinez | TEXASTRIBUNE.ORG | Dec. 20, 20244 PM Central. TAGS: Environment, State government, PFAS, Forever Chemicals, Fertilizers Made From Treated Sewage,
   1. Johnson County’s newest state representative, Helen Kerwin, R-Cleburne, filed her first bill Friday targeting an environmental problem that has struck her county: PFAS contamination in sewage sludge-based fertilizers.
   2. Kerwin said House Bill 1674, could reduce the presence of PFAS, or per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances, in Texas farms and ranches that use fertilizers made from treated sewage. PFAS, often called “forever chemicals” because they don’t break down and can persist in water and soil indefinitely, are known to cause serious health and environmental risks.
   3. Kerwin said she filed the bill after Johnson County farmers sued a fertilizer company, alleging that PFAS-contaminated fertilizer made from municipal waste poisoned their land, killed their livestock, and left them unable to sell anything produced on their farms.
   4. The bill requires manufacturers of products made from biosolids to test them monthly before selling them and sets limits on the concentrations of specific PFAS chemicals, including widely-studied compounds like perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) at 900 parts per trillion. If the samples surpass those limits, companies would be required to dispose of the product through incineration or at a landfill approved for toxic waste.
   5. The bill also requires companies to publish PFAS results on their websites.
   6. Companies that violate the law would face Class A misdemeanor charges, which carry a punishment of up to one year in jail and a $4,000 fine; repeat offenders could be charged with a state jail felony and face up to two years in state jail and fines up to $10,000.
   7. Dana Ames, the environmental crime investigator for Johnson County who discovered the contamination on the farmers’ land, said the limits on certain PFAS were determined by scientists who analyzed how the chemicals respond to soil and accumulate in animals and plants. …
   8. PFAS have been used in various industrial and consumer products since the 1940s due to their resistance to heat, stains, and water. However, their durability comes with a cost: they don’t break down and can accumulate in the environment, in animals and even human bloodstreams. Exposure to certain types of PFAS has been linked to health problems including cancer, birth defects, liver damage, and immune system disorders.
   9. For decades, fertilizers made from biosolids or sewage sludge have been promoted as a sustainable way to recycle municipal waste. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has even supported their use. However, many farmers and ranchers nationwide that used PFAS-tainted fertilizers on their land have been forced to shut down their operations due to poisoned land and livestock.
   10. The EPA does not require states to test biosolids for the chemicals. Some states have passed their own PFAS standards for biosolids; Texas is not among them.
   11. The EPA is evaluating the threats of PFAS in biosolids and is expected to share what they know by the end of December.
   12. Kerwin’s bill comes at a time when PFAS are under increasing scrutiny nationwide. Earlier this month, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton filed a lawsuit against chemical giants 3M and DuPont, accusing them of misleading the public about PFAS sold in many of their consumer products. Environmental advocates praised the move as evidence that addressing PFAS contamination transcends party lines.
   13. Kerwin echoed this sentiment, emphasizing the importance of bipartisan support for the bill.
   14. “I’m just looking for the support of fellow legislators, and hopefully we can present it as a non-partisan bill, and all the elected officials realize it affects everyone,” she said.
   15. Kerwin said that when she was running for office, she told Johnson County officials and farmers that if she won, she would make this bill her priority …
   16. MIKE: I covered this story on my December 5^th show. It’s nice to see that there is now proposed legislation to deal with this very serious agricultural and health problem. We’ll have to wait and see what the Texas Legislature does with it.
2. South Texas coal-fired power plant to switch to clean energy after receiving more than $1 billion in federal money; San Miguel Electric Cooperative’s plan to turn into a solar and battery plant will leave only 14 coal-fired power plants in the state. By Juan Salinas II | TEXASTRIBUNE.ORG | Dec. 20, 2024 / Updated: Dec. 21, 2024. TAGS: Energy, Environment, Texas, Coal,
   1. A South Texas coal-fired power plant will receive more than $1 billion in funding from the U.S. Department of Agriculture to convert into a solar and battery facility, according to the agency.
   2. The switch by San Miguel Electric Cooperative, located in Christine in Atascosa County, to a solar and battery plant will be funded by more than $1.4 billion of a $4.37 billion federal grant to support clean energy while maintaining rural jobs. With the co-op’s transition to a renewable energy plant, only 14 coal-fired power plants will be left in the state.
   3. In September, the CEO of San Miguel Electric Cooperative, Craig Courter, told a local newspaper that with federal funding, the co-op can “virtually eliminate our greenhouse gas emissions while continuing to provide affordable and reliable power to rural Texans.” …
   4. According to the USDA’s Thursday announcement, the transformation will reduce climate pollution by more than 1.8 million tons yearly and support as many as 600 jobs.
   5. The power plant has been a target of environmentalists and some locals for years. The ranching family that leased the land for the plant sought to kick San Miguel off its property last decade, saying the cooperative moved too slowly to restore land where it mined lignite to feed the plant. And groups like the Environmental Integrity Project and the Sierra Club have denounced it as a leading polluter of mercury among Texas power plants and expressed concern that two coal ash ponds are causing chemicals to seep into groundwater in the area.
   6. San Miguel says it does not agree with those allegations and says that the groundwater it is accused of contaminating is not used for drinking water. It also notes that it is in compliance with all environmental regulations meant to protect water quality.
   7. In a letter to The Texas Tribune on Saturday, Courter said the cooperative is a respected South Texas power provider … He said the move to switch to clean energy is “very positive news for the community.”
   8. Environmentalists and local officials also cheered the announcement.
   9. [McMullen County Judge James Teal said in a press release distributed by the Sierra Club,] “For years, folks in my county have been worried about water contamination from San Miguel’s lignite mine, so with this announcement, we are hopeful that McMullen County’s water will be clean long into the future.”
   10. Teal said that county government officials are looking forward to a benefits plan that will “implement a quality remediation process for the existing plant and mine and provide us with peace of mind that the mess has been cleaned up.”
   11. San Miguel will still need to establish a timeline for shutting down the coal plant. Still, it’s a “historic victory” for South Texas, said James Perkins, a Sierra Club Texas campaign organizer.
   12. Other co-ops in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Minnesota, and Nebraska received similar federal funding. …
   13. MIKE: I read a story on my October 14^th show that provided some useful background information about this type of power plant conversion from coal to renewable, and I suspect it also applies to this story, but is not mentioned.
   14. MIKE: In the previous story from CNN called, A polluting, coal-fired power plant found the key to solving America’s biggest clean energy challenge, it’s explained that a coal plant has an existing interconnection system that allows it to feed the power it generates into the grid. Using that pre-existing “plug” saves time, money, and bureaucracy.
   15. MIKE: I suspect that the key to this conversion in Texas is similar: Using the coal-fired plant’s pre-existing interconnect to the grid makes this Texas plant’s conversion to renewable faster, cheaper, and bureaucratically simpler than starting the whole process from scratch.
   16. MIKE: I wish that this Texas Tribune story explained that, but at least you heard it here.
   17. REFERENCE: A polluting, coal-fired power plant found the key to solving America’s biggest clean energy challenge; By Ella Nilsen and CNN Chief Climate Correspondent Bill Weir | CNN.COM | Mon September 16, 2024.
3. The Vulture Capitalists Strike Again — Party City Fired Everyone Without Severance Right Before Christmas; By Luis Prada | VICE.COM | December 24, 2024, 12:45pm. TAGS: Party City, Leveraged Buyouts, Vulture Capitalists, Private Equity Investors,
   1. Party City is immediately shutting down all of its stores and letting go of all its employees after nearly 40 years in business, announced CEO Barry Litwin. He blamed the company’s struggles on inflation, rising costs, and a shift in consumer behavior. And he’s correct on that. But he’s not giving you the full story.
   2. Party City’s demise is just another in a long line of vulture capitalist moves from private equity firms whose whole business model is built on saddling companies with so much debt that they’ll never be able to get out of it. All while stripping the company of any avenue for paying off that debt.
   3. … Over the years, various private equity firms got involved in Party City’s ownership. Including groups like Berkshire Partners and Thomas H. Lee Partners. It’s that second group, Thomas H. Lee Partners, that acquired majority control of Party City in 2012 through a leveraged buyout.
   4. It’s a private equity strategy that allows a group to take over a company with an enormous amount of borrowed money. Thus, saddling the company with an enormous amount of debt. The new owners of the company then strip the company down to its bolts so it’s running on fumes to ensure that every dollar it makes goes toward paying off the debt.
   5. It’s usually an amount of debt so great that the company being purchased can’t reasonably be expected to pay it off since interest payments on that debt alone chew up a significant portion of its revenue. That means the company cannot innovate. It cannot expand.
   6. A leveraged buyout is often viewed as a death sentence for a company. It’s a predatory practice, one that the company being bought out has little control over. Mitt Romney’s Bain Capital did it with Toys’r’Us and KB Toys, and that’s what happened to Party City.
   7. If you ever hear of a company being bought out through a leveraged buyout by a private equity firm, you might as well consider that company dead because it will be soon in some form or another. Elon Musk did it with Twitter. While Twitter (now terribly and stupidly named X) still exists, it is a shell of its former self. Elon’s leveraged buyout of Twitter was so bad that it’s actually become a risk to his other companies.
   8. The consortium of private equity owners bought into Party City over the years and also owned a party supply manufacturer named Amscan which gave the company a monopoly on the party supply market.
   9. Meaning, the store that was known for selling discount party supplies now did not have to discount anything. They could sell their party supplies for as much as they wanted because they didn’t have competition.
   10. … When it comes to Party City’s downfall, … Take it from Steve Mandel, the founder of Party City, who launched the chain back in 1986 with a single store in East Hanover, New Jersey. Speaking to the New York Post in January 2023, Mandel said, “If you can’t afford to give discounts, maybe you can’t afford to be in business.”
   11. He was eventually correct.
   12. The company was able to stay afloat for a while with this tactic. But all the factors the current CEO blamed above ate away at a foundation that was built on loose mud. Don’t blame inflation, consumer behavior, or rising costs on Party City’s demise. Blame the guys who so weakened the company that those factors were able to easily topple a company that should’ve been able to survive it.
   13. MIKE: Private Equity didn’t just kill Toys’r’Us, KB Toys, and now Party City. Among the high profile companies killed by vulture capitalists are: A&P (the grocery chain)^[1], Brookstone^[2], Instant Brands (the maker of Instant Pot and Pyrex)^[4], Kmart^[5], Payless Shoe Source^[2], RadioShack^[2], Red Lobster^[4], RJR Nabisco^[7], Sears^[2], Sports Authority^[2], TGI Fridays^[8], True Value (the hardware retailer)^[9], and TWA^[10].
   14. MIKE: Aside from the employees and suppliers that were hurt or devastated by these bankruptcies, there are also national culture and quality-of-life issues involved in the destruction of these businesses.
   15. MIKE: Let’s be clear, businesses are money-making entities and investment vehicles. They’re not intended to be national treasures or monuments. Nonetheless, there are some businesses that have contributed to the national culture and personality of this country, and have been important to our sense of ourselves.
   16. MIKE: In spite of all the products available on sites like Amazon, there are just some experiences that can’t replace a well-stocked and well-defined retail space.
   17. MIKE: Who among us didn’t go to Toys’r’Us for a hard-to-find game or toy, or to do holiday shopping or gift shopping? Is there anything else in the retail firmament that has filled that void?
   18. MIKE: As a former employee of Sears from 2000 to 2007, I experienced first-hand the slow-motion destruction of Sears by private equity.
   19. MIKE: Sears, Roebuck was an icon of American retail. Most people today don’t know how important and transformative it was in US history as a supplier of goods and services to Americans in all parts of the country, from cities to small towns. Sears practically invented mail-order. It was like an early version of Amazon. The Sears, Roebuck catalog holds an important place in US history.
   20. MIKE: At one time or another, Sears sold everything from toys and fishing tackle, to Craftsman home kits and Allstate cars. Allstate Insurance and Discover Card were originally Sears subsidiaries.
   21. MIKE: When you hear or read about Craftsman homes in, for example, California, those were originally affordable kit homes sold by Sears from 1908 to 1942 that were available in all sorts of sizes and configurations.
   22. MIKE: When I was growing up, shopping at Sears wasn’t a chore, it was an experience. It was the Walmart of its time, but much more fun and with generally higher quality.
   23. MIKE: Before Edward Lambert’s ESL Investments got its claws into Sears, that historic retailer was troubled, but not at death’s door. Lambert changed that.
   24. MIKE: Lambert bought K-Mart for a song while it was in bankruptcy, and eventually leveraged that as a base to acquire Sears.
   25. MIKE: As was described in the article, his acquisition was executed using Sears’s assets to finance a leveraged buyout. As is usually the case, his company then charged Sears exorbitant management fees, enriching his company and himself at the expense of the two companies he now owned, and the employees who relied on them for their living and the communities that depended on them for convenient and affordable goods and services.
   26. MIKE: With Sears’s exorbitant debt overhang, the company’s recovery became impossible. In my store, money was saved by literally removing every other light bulb, thereby cutting electricity costs, but making the now dreary shopping experience almost akin to shopping by nightlights.
   27. MIKE: The stores were allowed to age and degrade, with minimal money invested in refreshing the stores to make the shopping experience more appealing.
   28. MIKE: Sales commissions were cut. Store-owned properties were sold and leased back. Valuable, Sears-exclusive brands like Craftsman, Kenmore, and Lands End were sold off.
   29. MIKE: The dissolution of the company became an inevitable fact.
   30. MIKE: It’s not likely to happen while Trump and the Republicans are in power, but the rules of business acquisitions must be changed. I’m no expert, but using the assets of a target company to buy it should be illegal. Any loans for acquisition should be required to be sustainable and not destructive, much like taking out a mortgage should be based on ability to pay.
   31. MIKE: When purchasing a publicly-held company, a fiduciary responsibility should be established to run the company in a way that is managerially responsible to not only the stockholders, but also to the workers and suppliers.
   32. MIKE: Our country’s culture is measurably poorer when companies are destroyed for the financial benefit of an already rich few. Something must be done.
   33. REFERENCE: List of private equity owned companies that have filed for bankruptcy — From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
4. Italy bristles at prospect of Russia moving ships from Syria to Libya; By Tom Kington | DEFENSENEWS.COM | Thursday, Dec 19, 2024. TAGS: Syria, Libya, NATO, Italy, Russia,
   1. Russia is moving military assets from Syria to Libya, creating a security threat in the central Mediterranean, Italy’s defense minister [Guido Crosetto] said.
   2. [He told Italian daily La Repubblica,] “Moscow is transferring resources from its Syrian base at Tartus to Libya. That is not a good thing. Russian ships and submarines in the Mediterranean are always a concern, and even more so if instead of being 1,000 kilometers away they are two steps from us,” he said. …
   3. Amid speculation Russia may leave [Syria], satellite images show Russian warships previously docked at Tartus have put out to sea, prompting theories they might head to Tobruk in eastern Libya, where Moscow has been negotiating a formal deal to use the city’s port with local leader Gen. Khalifa Haftar.
   4. If Russia loses use of Tartus, it would be denied a port to base naval vessels in the Mediterranean, making Libya a highly desirable alternative.
   5. Analyst Jalel Harchaoui said that while there was no evidence of naval vessels heading for Libya — yet — there was plenty of evidence of increased Russian flights arriving.
   6. [Said Harchaoui, an analyst at the Royal United Services Institute think tank in London,] “Russian activity in Libya has been more intense of late. Three cargo flights recently arrived from Belarus as well as at least one cargo flight direct from Russia, which reminds us that Syria was a very useful stepping stone for flights from Russia to Africa, but not essential,” he said.
   7. Moscow already has military bases in eastern Libya which are staging posts for troops and material being sent to back military coup leaders in sub-Saharan Africa.
   8. “We don’t know if the warships from Tartus will pop up in Libya, but it already looks like Russia is increasing its presence there. And even if Russia keeps a presence in Syria, it counts as a downgrade and the Russians will likely look to recreate their level of comfort in Libya,” [Harchaoui]. said
   9. [He continued,] “If they do move into Tobruk, it would be seen as a brazen gesture by NATO and the U.S., and a sign that Haftar is no longer even pretending to listen to the West. The question is, will the U.S. and the U.K. then use coercion?”
   10. Ben Fishman, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told Defense News, “I would be totally unsurprised if Russia is moving assets to Libya – they have been courting Haftar precisely for scenarios like this.”
   11. [Fishman] added, “I think the U.S. should go on record with any evidence it has of a Russian build-up, as it has on previous occasions.”
   12. In recent months, Haftar has met with U.S. officials who want to discuss reunifying the eastern half of Libya he controls with western Libya, which is run by a UN-recognized administration in Tripoli. …
   13. Mohamed Eljarh, a Benghazi-based managing partner at consultancy firm Libya Desk, said, “Unlike the Syria case, there is no evidence of any formal agreement between Haftar and Russia for a Russian military presence in Libya. Russia’s access to Libya has come through informal agreements and understandings that it will supply training and equipment to the LNA.”
   14. The Libyan National Army, or LNA, is Haftar’s military force.
   15. Eljarh added, “I sense there could be a temporary arrangement with Russia to host more Russian assets now that Moscow in on the back foot in Syria. But Haftar has a history of saying no to the Russians when certain lines are crossed.” …
   16. Amid talk of Russia shifting assets to Libya, analyst Claudia Gazzini said one state was being forgotten – Turkey, which provides military support to the [UN-recognized] Tripoli government [in western Libya].
   17. “You would need Turkish acquiescence here,” said Gazzini, a Libya expert at the Crisis Group.
   18. “I cannot imagine the Turks and the Russians have not discussed the matter. What have been the contours of that conversation?”
   19. MIKE: What makes the world more dangerous than it has been in over 30 years is the amount of geopolitical movement taking place everywhere.
   20. MIKE: Russia is fighting a major land war of aggression in Ukraine. It has also been committing cyber-aggression on European countries, perhaps participating in sabotage of undersea infrastructure, and is blatantly intruding on the internal politics of many countries.
   21. MIKE: China is building its military in a peer or near-peer force that could threaten US forces and allies in the Indo-Pacific region, and is aggressively making vast territorial claims on land and sea, in and around Asia.
   22. MIKE: The world is now in a multipolar power regime, with 3 superpowers and many regional powers of varied strength and influence. There is a global military build-up unlike anything since the fall of the Soviet Union. Regional powers are benefitting from new technologies that allow them to punch above their weight, and are bumping shoulders against nearby nations that are also asserting themselves.
   23. MIKE: New military technologies allow both state and non-state players to wage effective asymmetrical wars, and that invites military adventurism in ways that might have been unthinkable a few decades ago.
   24. MIKE: Many nations are showing internal instability that tempts external parties to take sides, making civil conflicts bloodier and longer lasting.
   25. MIKE: And of course, the United States is going through its own internal turmoil, and as the pre-eminent economic and military power on Earth, this creates the potential for unimaginable global turmoil of the political, economic, and military variety.
   26. MIKE: Before he’s even been inaugurated, Donald Trump has been acting as if he’s already president, making demands of the Republican Party in Congress, engaging in foreign diplomacy, announcing policy, and even making imperialist noises about taking over territories of other countries that he sees as vital to US interests and power projection.
   27. MIKE: Trump has been making threatening noises to Mexico and Panama. Trump has also been saying inflammatory things against two NATO allies: questioning Denmark’s possession of Greenland, and referring to Canada as the 51^st US state.
   28. MIKE: On top of all of the aforementioned, we are now entering the 5-10 year window where the danger of war with China over Taiwan may be at its peak.
   29. MIKE: We’re not living in interesting times. We’re living in terrifying times.
   30. MIKE: Happy New Year?
5. S. tech continues to power Russian weapons despite export controls, Senate Democrats find; By Julie Tsirkin and Rob Wile | NBCNEWS.COM | Dec. 18, 2024, 12:46 PM CST/Updated Dec. 18, 2024, 4:20 PM CST. TAGS: U.S.-made technology, Russia, Ukraine, Ukraine-Russia War,
   1. S.-made technology continues to fall into Russian hands in Ukraine, as a key national security office remains critically underfunded, according to a report from Senate Democrats released Wednesday.
   2. The report, spearheaded by Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., comes just as officials in the incoming Trump administration call for massive cuts to government spending. While their arguments have focused on cutting government waste, the new report highlights how existing capacity shortfalls in key government agencies are already undermining U.S. interests.
   3. In the 30-page report, Democratic staff on the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations say the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS)’s enforcement of export controls “is a shadow of what it should be, and inadequate at every level.”
   4. The agency, it said, is asked to fulfill a key national security function “on a shoestring budget” using “laughable technology that has not been meaningfully updated for nearly two decades” despite more modern alternatives in use not only in the private sector but also at other government agencies.
   5. The end result: U.S. microchips and other equipment continue to be found in Russian missiles, armored vehicles and drones.
   6. The report is the result of a 15-month probe led by Blumenthal in which the leaders of the largest U.S. semiconductor producers testified before the panel and were grilled by both Republicans and Democrats over Russia’s ability to acquire and use their products despite export limitations. …
   7. The new report shows part of the issue may be lack of federal enforcement. The BIS “has largely left the decision of how to comply with the law to semiconductor companies themselves,” the report finds. It also accuses the agency of failing to charge the companies with sufficiently serious violations or imposed fines.
   8. A Department of Commerce spokesperson told NBC News that under the Biden administration, “BIS has implemented the most robust export controls in history, and crucially, we’ve done so in concert with our allies to deny Russia the items it needs to maintain its war machine.”
   9. “While BIS’ budget has been stagnant for a decade, the bureau works diligently around the clock to meet its mission and safeguard U.S. national security,” the spokesperson said, adding that with the necessary resources from Congress, as Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and bipartisan members of Congress have called for, “the agency will be even better equipped to address the challenges that come with our evolving national security environment.”
   10. Trump’s pick to lead the agency under his second administration, billionaire Howard Lutnick, at times encouraged calls to slash funding to federal agencies and even empowered Elon Musk to take the helm of the newly created Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Musk has called for cuts of as much as $2 trillion in federal spending — more than the entire discretionary budget. 
   11. [MIKE: I’ll note here that the so-called “Department of Government Efficiency” is not an actual government department, and is at best an external consultancy. NBC News should really know better. Continuing …]
   12. In a request for comment on the report, Texas Instruments said the company “strongly opposes the use of our chips in Russian military equipment and the illicit diversion of our products to Russia. TI stopped selling products into Russia and Belarus in February 2022. Any shipments of TI chips into Russia are illicit and unauthorized,” the company said in a statement. “[TI devotes] significant time and resources to developing, implementing and refining policies and procedures to combat illicit diversion and keep chips out of the hands of bad actors. If we find evidence indicating product diversion, we investigate and take action.”
   13. An AMD spokesperson said in a statement: “AMD shares the goal of preventing Russian military access to our products outlined in the Senate PSI report and has no tolerance for their illicit diversion into Russian weapon systems. We ceased all sales and tech support for our products to Russia and all restricted regions immediately following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Our export compliance program is developed with guidance from the U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security. Before we make a sale, we undertake measures to ensure we know who we are selling to, including a refusal to do business with any company that may have a direct or indirect association with a sanctioned entity. AMD is continuing our collaborations with BIS and the Disruptive Technology Strike Force on this challenging but critical issue.”
   14. Analog Devices said in a statement: “ADI is committed to preventing the unauthorized resale, illicit diversion, and misuse of our products, and to complying with applicable laws and regulations in the countries where we operate. We at ADI strongly condemn the illicit diversion and unintended misuse of our products.”
   15. Intel said in a statement that it operates “in strict accordance with export laws, sanctions and regulations in the U.S. and every jurisdiction in which we operate. We hold our suppliers, customers, and distributors accountable to these same standards. Intel is diligently working to track and mitigate the potential diversion of our products, including actively coordinating with non-governmental organizations, the U.S. and other governments to identify and stop this activity.”
   16. Although the U.S. and its Western allies have imposed an array of sanctions to cripple Russia’s economy and cut off the Kremlin’s access to key parts used to build weapons, Russia’s production of artillery, missiles and drones has dramatically increased, according to a report from over the summer. The report from the Royal United Services Institute, a U.K.-based defense think tank, found that Russia obtains raw materials and weapons components from NATO member countries, and greater collaboration is needed between the nations to choke Moscow’s access.
   17. Export controls have emerged as a critical national security tool over the last two decades. Democrats on the investigative panel said the efforts are not only central to crippling Russia’s advances in Ukraine, but also to slowing China’s progress to match the U.S. in artificial intelligence.
   18. In a letter to [Commerce Secretary] Raimondo on Wednesday, Blumenthal outlined the report’s findings and asked the agency to take “aggressive steps to cut the flow of U.S. semiconductors into the Russian war machine.”
   19. [Blumenthal] referred to a Bloomberg News article from earlier this month that reported Western officials have been continuously frustrated to find Russian weapons “chock full” of American-made electronic components despite a flurry of trade controls. In fact, the report found that, in some cases, Russian distributors have simply integrated ordering information from Texas Instruments’ online shop, TI store, into their offerings, allowing them to see and order up-to-date parts with the click of a mouse. The items then get routed through Hong Kong or other countries before arriving in Russia. …
   20. [Shannon Thompson, the company’s assistant general counsel, said during the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations hearings in September,] “I want to be very clear: TI strongly opposes the use of our chips in Russian military equipment. Any shipments of TI products into Russia are illicit and unauthorized. We work hard to prevent the illicit diversion of our parts into Russia. Every level of our company takes this seriously.”
   21. MIKE: I don’t know if there’s anything less convincing than corporate denials written by corporate lawyers and corporate PR people in the blandest possible corporate-speak.
   22. MIKE: Corporate denials are often such blatant double-speak and lies that it’s like listening to Fox so-called News. Maybe the most honest thing Elon Musk does is eliminate his companies’ communications departments. We’re unlikely to believe anything that comes out of them anyway.
   23. MIKE: Be that as it may, it’s entirely possible that some or all of these companies are making best efforts to follow government sanctions guidelines, but are being defeated by the sheer scope of their global clientele, and the number of ways that products can be transshipped from a legal client to a sanctioned end-user.
   24. MIKE: It may be impossible to stick fingers in all the metaphorical holes in the metaphorical dikes, but companies and governments need to cooperate to do better.
6. Russia’s elite sound the alarm on the economy amid high interest rates; By Catherine Belton | WASHINGTONPOST.COM | December 10, 2024 at 10:46 a.m. EST. TAGS: Russian President Vladimir Putin, Russia, Western Sanctions, VTB Investment Conference, Russian Economy,
   1. When Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed an annual big-business gathering this month, he could not help but crow about how Western sanctions against the economy had failed.
   2. [Putin said at the VTB investment conference,] “The task was to deal Russia a strategic blow … to weaken industry, finance and services in our country,”, [he said,] pointing out that economic growth in Russia would reach 4 percent this year, far outstripping rates in Europe. “It is clear that these plans have collapsed.”
   3. But despite the polite applause that greeted the Russian president, tension has been breaking out into the open among the Russian elite over the mounting cost of sanctions on the economy. Executives from major businesses have been warning in growing numbers that central bank interest rate hikes to combat rampant inflation — caused by sanctions and Putin’s wartime spending spree — could bring the economy to a halt next year.
   4. There could be a rash of bankruptcies, including in Russia’s strategically sensitive military industry, where the boom in production fueling Russia’s war in Ukraine is forecast to slow next year, the executives have said. The result could be that Russia would no longer be able to replenish the equipment being lost on the battlefield at such high rates.
   5. Even President-elect Donald Trump noted in a post on his Truth Social network this weekend about the shocking overthrow of the Kremlin’s ally in Syria, Bashar al-Assad, that Russia had been weakened partly because of “a bad economy.”
   6. … As expectations grow that the central bank will be forced to impose another interest rate hike this month, usually reticent members of Putin’s inner circle have joined in the unprecedented criticism of the policy that has kept the key rate at 21 percent.
   7. [MIKE: Note here that a central bank rate is usually lower than the rate charged to businesses and consumers. Continuing …
   8. However, annual inflation continues to soar beyond 9 percent, according to official data, raising the prospect of a prolonged “stagflation” or even recession next year.
   9. Already, the central bank forecasts that growth will [drop sharply] to 0.5 to 1.5 percent next year. Tough new U.S. sanctions on 50 Russian banks, including Gazprombank, a key channel for energy payments, further increased transaction costs for Russian importers and exporters, and caused the ruble to plummet to its lowest level against the dollar since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
   10. The drop in the ruble also fueled inflation … an additional 0.5 percent between Nov. 26 and Dec. 2, according to the Russian statistics agency Rosstat.
   11. Boris Kovalchuk, head of the country’s financial watchdog and son of one of Putin’s closest allies, … warned [on] Nov. 27 that the interest rate hikes were “limiting the investment possibilities of business and leading to a growth in federal budget spending.”
   12. [MIKE: So these high interest rates are not only bad for business, but it also takes a bigger bite out of the Russian budget in debt service. Reading on …]
   13. Igor Sechin, another close Putin ally heading the oil giant Rosneft, lambasted the central bank in his company’s quarterly financial report, saying the rate hikes were having a “negative impact on the cost of financing” for the company as well as its contractors and suppliers, and were eating into profits.
   14. Others are sounding an even louder alarm. Sergei Chemezov, the close Putin ally who heads Russia’s state arms conglomerate RosTec, warned at the end of October that if rates remained at current levels, “practically a majority of our enterprises will go bankrupt,” and he said Russia could be forced to curtail arms exports.
   15. Steel magnate Alexei Mordashov, who owns Severstal, warned that “it is more profitable for companies to stop development, even reduce the scale of business and put funds on deposit, than to conduct business and bear the risks associated with it.”
   16. The Russian Union of Shopping Centers said more than 200 malls face bankruptcy because of the high cost of financing.
   17. While business executives and economists said it was natural for industry titans to exaggerate the impact of the high rates to seek subsidized loans and other state benefits, they also said the concerns being voiced were real, especially because corporate debt levels are high.
   18. [MIKE: I’ll note here that high interest rates should also be impacting the cost of Russian sovereign debt. Russian government debt reached US$253.4 billion in November, while Russia has a gross domestic product (or GDP) about the size of Italy. Continuing the story …]
   19. [According to Alexandra Prokopenko, a former adviser to the Russian central bank and now a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center,] Among the hardest hit are contractors in the Russian defense industry, which are reporting non-payments and growing financing costs. [She said,] “Businesses are not hiding that it is more profitable for them to put money on deposit than to invest in business.” …
   20. Russian news agency Interfax reported Dec. 3 that non-payments were spreading across the economy, with major and midsize businesses delaying 19 percent of payments between July and September, while small businesses had delayed 25 percent of payments over the same period.
   21. [MIKE: I’ll note that in the US and probably other countries, most business invoices are due paid in full within 30 days. Continuing …]
   22. Investment has been falling, according to the Russian Economic Development Ministry, and the impact of sanctions has gradually pushed up the costs of imports and financial transactions, further fueling inflation, said a former senior Russian financial official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters. “What’s happening is a typical supply shock in the country.”
   23. [MIKE: In reference to the previous story, while US technology is still finding its way into Russian weapons, it’s a lot more expensive to buy stuff on the black market, so that also puts a strain on Russian military buyers. Reading on …]
   24. The growing cost of financing and importing goods comes at a critical juncture for the Russian defense industry. Even as Putin has poured ever greater amounts of state funding into the sector, with a record $126 billion allocated in next year’s budget, most of the increase in output has been fueled by boosting the workforce to run military plants round-the-clock and by refurbishing Soviet-era stockpiles.
   25. But as the war extends well into its third year and losses of military equipment soar, Russia’s labor force is at capacity, and the Soviet weapon supply is dwindling. Growing costs — and ever-tightening sanctions on imports of equipment — are making it increasingly difficult for the Russian defense sector to build weaponry from scratch, said Janis Kluge of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
   26. According to a report this year by … research fellows at the Royal United Services Institute in London, 80 percent of tanks and other armored fighting vehicles used in the war are not new, but refurbished from existing stocks.
   27. Russia “will begin to find that vehicles require deeper refurbishment through 2025, and by 2026 it will have exhausted most of the available stocks,” according to the report.
   28. As Soviet-era supplies diminish, “Russia will start to have to produce certain categories of weapons from the ground up,” Kluge said. But sanctions have made it more difficult and more expensive to import the equipment necessary for that, he added.
   29. According to data presented by the Russian Economic Development Ministry to the Russian parliament, the surging output in the sector vaguely named “other transport systems and equipment” is due to plummet to 5 percent growth next year … in a sign of the troubles in the tank-manufacturing sector.
   30. … The situation, however, does not seem to be causing worry in the Kremlin. A Russian academic with close ties to senior diplomats said concerns about the economic outlook were not enough to move the state to compromise. …
   31. The disarray in Western capitals — with the no-confidence vote in France and another scheduled this month in Germany — combined with the belief in the Kremlin that Trump will reduce support for Ukraine — is further adding to [that] confidence.
   32. Putin has batted away the mounting criticism of the interest rate hikes … and he told the investment conference that reining in inflation was a priority.
   33. With prices for basic foodstuffs such as potatoes rising nearly 80 percent this year, Putin will continue to protect … rate hikes from big business’s complaints. “It is part of Putin’s political DNA that inflation must not be allowed to get out of control,” Kluge said. …
   34. But Prokopenko, the former central bank adviser, said she believes the pressure from big business will not subside, [saying,] “When you have inflation at 9 percent and the key rate at 21 percent, it means that the key rate is not working correctly, and other tools should be considered. Putin’s priority is the war, and funding the war machine, and he does not have many allies, and the resources at his disposal are also shrinking. …
   35. For Putin, the pressure is growing, despite the widespread view in the West that time is on the Russian president’s side, said Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of France-based political consultancy R.Politik.
   36. [Stanovaya said,] “Putin is ready to fight for as long as necessary. … But Putin is hurrying. He can’t maintain such an intensity of military action and losses in terms of people and equipment as he has in the last months,” she said.
   37. MIKE: So does this mean that if Ukraine can hold out a few more months, and if Trump doesn’t cut Ukraine off at the knees, that financial stress, and shortages of labor and equipment might turn the tide more in Ukraine’s favor? Those are a lot of “ifs”.
   38. MIKE: And will Putin’s allies in North Korea, Iran, and China find ways to change these calculations? Those are question marks.
   39. MIKE: Like I said earlier, the world is increasingly unstable with lots of unpredictableS. I’m sorry to say that it’s only going to get more nerve wracking.
7. Syria’s rebel leaders say they’ve broken with their jihadist past – can they be trusted?; By Mina Al-Lami, Chief jihadist media specialist, BBC Monitoring (Minalami) | BBC.COM | Dec. 20, 2024. TAGS: Middle East, Damascus, Bashar al-Assad, Military, Syria,
   1. Last week, while touring Damascus, Syria’s new leader Ahmed al-Sharaa (formerly known as Abu Mohammed al-Jolani) was approached by a young woman who asked for a photo with him. He gently requested that she cover her hair before taking the picture.
   2. The incident quickly sparked heated debate across Arabic social and mainstream media.
   3. What happened may have been small but it was telling because it encapsulated the tightrope that Syria’s new rulers, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) — who are designated as a terrorist organisation by the UN, US, EU and UK — must walk.
   4. On one side is the diverse, and, in some cases more liberal, Syrian population, along with the international community, whose acceptance is crucial for HTS’s survival and legitimacy. To them, the hair covering incident offered a troubling glimpse into Syria’s potential future under HTS, expressing fears that conservative policies could eventually mandate the veil for all women.
   5. On the other side, Islamist hardliners criticised al-Sharaa for taking the photo at all, describing the woman as a “mutabarijah” — a term for a woman perceived to dress immodestly or wear makeup — and insisting his action violated religious rules.
   6. These hardliners hold significant sway over militant factions and could rally opposition within al-Sharaa’s own Islamist base.
   7. HTS faces the challenge of attempting to reconcile these competing demands — balancing the expectations of the international community and the liberal parts of Syria’s population with the demands of the hardline base. Both sides are closely scrutinising HTS’s every statement and action.
   8. The group’s ability to navigate these tensions will be critical to maintaining control and pursuing its political ambitions.
   9. In [al-Sharaa’s] messages, he has focused on coexistence within Syria’s diverse society, granted amnesty to former military conscripts, prohibited acts of vigilante revenge against ex-government personnel and loyalists, and adopted neutral and at times conciliatory language when addressing traditional adversaries, including Israel, the US, Iran and Russia.
   10. His statements have been deliberately devoid of inflammatory rhetoric or threats, instead [centering] on themes of reconciliation, stability, and reconstruction, in a clear effort to neutralise opposition and push for the removal of HTS and al-Sharaa himself from international terror lists.
   11. … It is still unclear whether al-Sharaa’s flexible approach represents a genuine ideological shift, or a calculated strategy aimed at winning approval and consolidating power before potentially implementing a stricter and more religiously conservative agenda.
   12. But already, his more progressive moves are sparking significant unease among hardliners in Syria, who insist on an Islamist government rooted in a strict and distinctive Sunni identity. While Sunni Arabs are the dominant ethnic and religious group in Syria, the country is notably diverse, with a range of minority groups including Shia Alawites, of which the ousted president Bashar al-Assad is a member, [and] Kurds, Christians, Druze, Turkmen and Ismailis, in addition to other small groups.
   13. Even if HTS leadership is sincere in its push for change, the diverse range of Islamist and jihadist factions deeply entrenched in Syria — many of which played key roles in the recent offensive — are unlikely to tolerate anything short of a strict Islamist system. Should HTS deviate from such a path, these factions would likely be prepared to resort to armed resistance to enforce their vision. …
   14. Despite a $10m (£7.8m) US bounty on his head, [al-Sharaa] has been able to frequently appear publicly, attending events and engaging with the population, much like a statesman.
   15. However, al-Sharaa’s jihadist critics accuse him of being a manipulative politician, willing to compromise on key ideological principles to advance his own career and secure political gains for HTS, at the expense of other militant groups operating in the country.
   16. … HTS solidified its authority in Idlib through a dual strategy: winning the hearts and minds of local populations through offering some form of stability, while using force to stamp out or co-opt rivals and even former allies.
   17. The group moved away from distinctive jihadist rhetoric… Instead, they adopted a more “revolutionary” and nationalist narrative, focusing on the singular goal of toppling Syria’s president Bashar al-Assad and “liberating” Syria.
   18. The civilian front established by HTS in 2017 to administer Idlib was called the Syrian Salvation Government (SSG). The aim was to demonstrate HTS’s governance capabilities, and [to] bolster its legitimacy. This move was likely also aimed at alleviating fears about militants running a province, seeking to distance itself from the brutal image associated with IS’s rule over territories in Syria and Iraq.
   19. The SSG operated as a mini-state, complete with a prime minister, ministries and local departments managing key sectors such as education, health and reconstruction, all while adhering to a religious council guided by Sharia (Islamic law). It also established professional-looking military and police academies, frequently showcasing their graduation ceremonies and organising military parades, typically attended by al-Sharaa.
   20. The SSG frequently showcased its achievements in reconstruction and service provision. It often contrasted these efforts with the dire conditions and rampant corruption in areas controlled by the Syrian government or rival rebel groups. Al-Sharaa even twice attended Idlib’s annual book fair, giving speeches.
   21. But HTS faced significant challenges in Idlib, and its rule was far from smooth.
   22. Prior to the 27 November HTS-led rebel offensive, the group was dogged by anti-HTS protests, particularly targeting al-Sharaa’s leadership. Protesters accused HTS of suppressing dissent through forced disappearances and imprisonment of opponents and critics. …
   23. However, it is important to note that many of HTS’s critics, past and present, and some of the those imprisoned by the group, were hardliners actively inciting opposition to HTS’s project in Idlib. Others were locals and activists who criticised what they described as HTS’s monopolisation of power and “authoritarian” rule.
   24. … Although some locals have voiced complaints about religious restrictions in Idlib, as reported by Arab media and NGOs, these grievances have not been widespread. This may be due to HTS’s relative flexibility and the fact that most residents of the province are conservative Sunni Muslims who may be generally accepting of the status quo.
   25. Indeed, HTS has often come in for harsh criticism by hardliners for being too “lenient” and failing to impose strict Sharia rules in Idlib.
   26. Al-Sharaa has argued that the imposition of strict rules such as the morality police is an outdated idea that often causes more harm than good. In April 2023 he said: “We don’t want to create a hypocritical society that prays when we’re around and doesn’t when we’re gone.” He emphasised that he wanted people to adhere to Islamic teachings out of conviction, “not through … [force]”.
   27. Despite these comments, the group has often responded by employing strict measures in a clear effort to appease hardliners — a pattern that offers insight into how HTS may respond to such pressures in future. …
   28. HTS has long had a strained relationship with the other major rebel bloc in Syria, the Turkey-backed Syrian National Army (SNA). The SNA’s focus during the recent offensive has largely aligned with Ankara’s priorities — seizing Kurdish-held areas in northern Syria to eliminate what Turkey perceives as a Kurdish “threat” along its borders.
   29. Whether the two blocs can agree on the division of the strategic locations seized from Kurdish forces — or across Syria more broadly — remains uncertain, particularly as HTS continues to push for complete unity, clearly under its own leadership. …
   30. In terms of post-Assad messaging, groups like al-Qaeda as well as more moderate Islamist figures and scholars have reminded HTS about its “obligation” to ensure the set-up of an Islamic system in Syria, distinguished by a strong Sunni identity. …
   31. Another point of contention arose on 16 December when al-Sharaa announced plans to disband and disarm militant groups and militias in the country, concentrating weapons in the hands of the state and the military alone.
   32. Again, hardliners protested, urging factions to retain their arms. They argued the move would consolidate power under HTS, leaving no other groups armed to challenge its authority and paving the way for tyranny.
   33. Further discontent emerged over HTS’s muted response to repeated Israeli airstrikes in Syria following Assad’s fall. After days of silence, on 14 December al-Sharaa criticised the strikes but stated that his group had no intention of engaging in any new conflicts, emphasising its current focus on rebuilding Syria. He also stated that he would not allow Syria to be used as a launchpad for attacks against Israel. …
   34. Under pressure from liberals and hardliners alike, al-Sharaa and HTS are treading a fine line in an attempt not to antagonise either side too much, and the need for flexibility appears to be key.
   35. A week ago, the young woman wanting a photo was asked to cover her hair.
   36. This week al-Sharaa was photographed with two British diplomats, one of whom was Ann Snow, the UK’s special representative for Syria. Her hair was uncovered.
   37. MIKE: I read a large portion of the original story, but I actually edited out a lot of explication and backstory from the article, some of which I’ve discussed over the last two weeks. I would encourage anyone who has further interest to click on the story link I’ve provided in the blog post.
   38. MIKE: On a related note, I feel for the Kurds in northeast Syria. Being squeezed between Turkiye and the now-victorious HTS and its allies, I can only dread what the future may hold for them. As I’ve said before, the Kurds have been so marginalized and oppressed by all the countries that hold various parts of a historic Kurdish homeland, that I feel that they really deserve their own country, no less than the Jews deserve their own state.
   39. MIKE: As a matter of fact, while I can discover no named Kurdish movement equivalent to Zionism, Kurdish aspirations toward statehood go back a long way, and can sound remarkably similar to pre-Israel aspirations of Jews for a state they could call their own, in which they could feel relatively safe, and to which they would be welcome when societies turn against them.
   40. MIKE: In fact, there is a lot of sympathy for the Kurds in Israel, and relations among Israelis and Kurds are friendly to the extent possible. There have been cordial relationships between the Kurds and Jews, and Jewish Zionists, even for decades before the founding of the state of Israel, since their histories of persecution and their national aspirations are so similar.
   41. MIKE: This brings us back to wondering what fate awaits the Kurds, and any hope they may have for retaining any kind of autonomy within this new Syrian state that is evolving.
   42. MIKE: It’s worth remembering in this mix of uncertainty that during his first presidency, the dictator-loving Trump totally betrayed the Syrian Kurds when Turkish president Erdogan wanted him to. What will he do this time?
   43. MIKE: Will HTS allow them some form of home rule within a united Syrian state under HTS? Or will HTS force the Kurds to be ruled directly from Damascus under whatever form of civil government HTS may be successful in creating?
   44. MIKE: These are among the many questions that may be answered, one way or another, over the coming months.
   45. REFERENCE: Israel–Kurdistan Region relations — From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
8. Syria’s new leadership to consolidate all armed rebel factions into defense ministry; By Agencies and ToI Staff | TIMESOFISRAEL.COM | 24 December 2024, 4:36 pm. TAGS: Syria, Israel, Ahmed al-Sharaa, Kurds, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS),
   1. Syria’s de facto leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, reached an agreement on Tuesday with former rebel faction chiefs to dissolve all groups and consolidate them under the defense ministry, according to a statement from the new administration.
   2. Photos published by the state-run SANA news agency showed Sharaa, also known by [his] nom de guerre Abu Mohammed al-Julani, surrounded by the heads of several armed factions — but not representatives of the Kurdish-led forces in Syria’s northeast.
   3. Prime Minister Mohammed al-Bashir had said last week that the ministry would be restructured using former rebel factions and officers who defected from Bashar al-Assad’s army.
   4. Sharaa will face the daunting task of trying to avoid clashes between the myriad groups.
   5. On Sunday, Sharaa had said the new authorities would “absolutely not allow there to be weapons in the country outside state control.”
   6. That also applied to the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, he said.
   7. The military chief of the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) that led the insurgency told AFP last week that Kurdish-held areas would be integrated under the new leadership, and that “Syria will not be divided.”
   8. The country’s new rulers appointed Murhaf Abu Qasra, a leading figure in the insurgency that toppled Assad, as defense minister in the interim government.
   9. Syria’s historic ethnic and religious minorities include Muslim Kurds and Shiites – who feared during the civil war that any future Sunni Islamist rule would imperil their way of life — as well as Syriac, Greek and Armenian Orthodox Christians, and the Druze community.
   10. Sharaa has told Western officials visiting him that HTS, which he heads [and is] a former al-Qaeda affiliate, will neither seek revenge against the former regime nor repress any religious minority. …
   11. Meanwhile, Israel’s Channel 12 reported Monday that senior American officials have urged their Israeli counterparts to nurture ties with Syria’s new leader.
   12. [The report quoted US officials as saying,] “Cooperation and communication channels of yours with al-Julani will bolster Israel’s influence in the entire area. We are talking about a pragmatic leader who wants to develop strategic relations with the nations of the region.”
   13. Israel was said to be listening to what the Americans are saying, but also suspects that al-Julani is playing the US and international community, and trying to stabilize his control, but has not truly changed his spots.
   14. MIKE: I wonder what the Kurds will do with this demand from the central HTS-controlled government to surrender their weapons. Will they simply accede? Their history in the region must make them reluctant. And if they do tentatively consider going along with this demand by al-Sharaa, they would have to wonder how this would leave them vulnerable to Turkish military actions.
   15. MIKE: What will Turkiye do? And what security guarantees would they have from the Damascus government to defend them against possible Turkish attacks? Would any assurances of protection from the central Syrian government even mean anything to them?
   16. MIKE: Consider if you were a Jew in Czarist Russia, constantly in danger of pogroms in the Polish Pale of Settlement. So Poland become independent of Russia and promises to protect the Polish Jews. How did that work out for Poland’s Jews around the 1940s?
   17. MIKE: History doesn’t repeat itself, but it rhymes. What should the Kurds do?

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