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 Link is usually posted within about 72 hours of show broadcast.

Welcome to Thinkwing Radio with Mike Honig (@ThinkwingRadio), a listener call-in show  airing live every Monday night from 9-10 PM (CT) on KPFT-FM 90.1 (Houston). My engineer and discussion partner is Egberto Willies (@EgbertoWillies).

Listen live on the radio or on the internet from anywhere in the world! When the show is live, we take calls at 713-526-5738. (Long distance charges may apply.)

For the purposes of this show, I operate on two mottoes:

• You’re entitled to your own opinion, but not your own facts;
• An educated electorate is a prerequisite for a democracy.

GUEST: Ed Hirs is a UH Energy Fellow in the Department of Economics at University of Houston (See More Below)

• QUESTIONS/COMMENTS:
  • Reference Articles:
    • The Surprising Reasons Oil Prices Keep Falling, By Marcelle Arak and Sheila Tschinkel | (JuanCole,com, The Conversation) contributors | Jan. 24, 2016 |
    • Oil Over Troubled Waters?, By Robin Mills, (NEWSWEEK) January 20, 2016, 6 days ago
  • Why are oil prices collapsing?
  • Is it a US conspiracy with Saudi Arabia against ISIS and Russia?
  • OR, Is it a Saudi conspiracy against new US producers and Iran?
    • What could be in it for Saudi Arabia?
    • While Saudi Arabia is the largest producer, are we giving too much ‘credit’ to them for keeping the flow and resulting oversupply, going?
  • “Elasticity of Demand” vs. “Inelasticity Of Demand”?
  • OPEC generally and Saudi Arabia has played this game before. Namely, crashing prices to destroy marginal players outside of OPEC and discouraging the more-efficient infrastructure and technology changes that create lower inelastic demand.
    • If this IS their game, have they overplayed their hand this time?
  • The Next Big Auto Industry Disruptor Could Be Gasoline At $1 A Gallon
    • A slew of fuel-saving hybrid and full-electric models debuted, including the coming 2017 Chevrolet Bolt EV, with an expected operating range of around 200 miles on a charge and a sticker price at around $30,000, including the one-time $7,500 federal tax credit.
    • there’s rumblings that gas prices might even dip as low as a buck a gallon in some parts of the country this year, a level not seen in the U.S. since 1999 experts say $1 a gallon is indeed possible, at least as long the stars continue to be in perfect alignment, so to speak. That means OPEC nations, especially Saudi Arabia, have to keep the pumps working overtime, oil prices have to maintain their downward trend (they’re already below $33 a barrel, compared to $100 in 2014), and refinery capacity has to remain at full bore without serious interruptions. And that’s with ongoing shale oil drilling continuing to bolster domestic supplies.
    • Originally conceived a few years ago back when gasoline was a budget buster and EVs were considered the salvation, $1.00 a gallon gasoline unfortunately makes the aforementioned Chevy Bolt look more like an overpriced small car than a high-tech zero-emissions money saver. Sales of hybrids and EVs dropped by around by 17 percent last year and will likely continue to plunge in the months ahead, even with additional models reaching the market. With fuel costs less of an issue, consumers are happily eschewing passenger cars for lower-mileage crossover SUVs and pickup trucks, with the latter now commanding sticker prices as high as $60,000 for their top luxury appointed models.
  • E.U. extends sanctions against Russia amid a growing split over their future, By Michael Birnbaum December 21 at 8:41 AM (www.washingtonpost.com): The European Union on Monday extended sanctions against Russia for six months, achieving consensus among the bloc’s 28 member nations despite rising divisions over how long to press a major trading partner over its annexation of Crimea and its role in Ukraine’s separatist war.
    • Is Russia still a key world power?, By James Nixey Russia and Eurasia Programme head, Chatham House (BBC) 21 December 2015
    • Is Oil America’s current weapon of choice?
    • The current low price of oil has the unique benefit of being bad for America’s enemies, adversaries and opponents, while being more-or-less beneficial for America’s friends and allies.
  • 40 Percent Of Ford Models To Be Electrified By 2020, by Sarah Shelton December 21, 2015 (http://www.hybridcars.com): By 2020, Ford wants 40 percent of its global lineup to be offered as a plug-in or hybrid variant.
    • To reach this goal, Ford will be investing $4.5 billion and adding 13 electrified models to its lineup, calling [this] the “largest-ever electrified vehicle investment in a five-year period” for the company.

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Energy Fellow Ed Hirs

Lecturer, Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Social Sciences at the University of Houston

Ed Hirs is a UH Energy Fellow in the Department of Economics at University of Houston. He has many well-respected articles in publications to his credit.

Ed Hirs teaches energy economics courses to undergraduate and graduate students within the department of economics at the University of Houston. He is also appointed as an inaugural University of Houston Energy Fellow.

In addition to his teaching, Hirs is Managing Director for Hillhouse Resources, LLC, an independent E&P company developing onshore conventional oil and gas discoveries on the Texas Gulf Coast.  Previously, Ed was CFO of DJ Resources, Inc., an early leader in the Niobrara Shale.

He has authored and co-authored published opinion pieces on energy markets and corporate governance. He founded and co-chairs an annual energy conference at Yale University. He is frequently consulted by national and international media.  Hirs’ articles and quotes have circled the globe with the impact of bringing apolitical, energy economic analysis—without the hyperbole of political agendas—to the forefront of discussion.

Hirs earned a Bachelor of Arts with honors and distinction, a Master of Arts, and a MBA in economics from Yale University where he also holds the designation of Chartered Financial Analyst.

With his co-authors in the Yale Graduates Energy Study Group, Hirs has published several referenced papers in energy economics available on ssrn.com.

POSSIBLE FUTURE TOPICS:

• What the Flint, MI water disaster says about ‘trying to run government like a business’.
• How China could trigger a global crisis, By Matt O’Brien January 11, 2016 (WashingtonPost)
• For the second time, we are witnessing a new geological epoch: Welcome to the Anthropocene.by Annalee Newitz – Jan 11, 2016 6:45pm CST (http://arstechnica.com)
• Reagan High School name change process postponed, January 14, 2016 by Jonathan Garris (com) 5 Comments
• Stinging Report On Pandemics Makes Louis Pasteur Look Like A Prophet, by Jason Beaubien (NPR.org) Updated January 13, 20165:32 PM ET Published January 13, 20165:01 PM ET
  • NPR Report: “If an outbreak like the Spanish flu of 1918, which killed more than 50 million, were to happen today, the economic damage would be in the trillions of dollars.”
  • So equate lives to dollars.
  • What has happened to our society??
  • When did we stop thinking of citizens and become only consumers
• Taiwan Elections: Pro-independence?
• BREAKING: Paxton scandal widens with investigation into land flip: LSP detailed Paxton land flip scheme in 2015 (Jan 15, 2016)
  • Investigators eye Paxton’s role in land deal: AG part of group that sold land after rezoning, By Lauren McGaughy (Houston Chronicle) January 15, 2016 Updated: January 15, 2016 10:05pm (Subscription required)
  • This is what Texans get for electing an attorney general who was already indicted.
• How much influence does the media really have over elections? Digging into the data: “My sense is that what we have here is a feedback loop. Does media attention increase a candidate’s standing in the polls? Yes. Does a candidate’s standing in the polls increase media attention? Also yes.”By Jonathan Stray @jonathanstray [www.niemanlab.org] Jan. 11, 2016, 2:49 p.m
• Hybrid vehicles vs. electric rechargeable
  • The Next Big Auto Industry Disruptor Could Be Gasoline At $1 A Gallon
    • A slew of fuel-saving hybrid and full-electric models debuted, including the coming 2017 Chevrolet Bolt EV, with an expected operating range of around 200 miles on a charge and a sticker price at around $30,000, including the one-time $7,500 federal tax credit.
    • there’s rumblings that gas prices might even dip as low as a buck a gallon in some parts of the country this year, a level not seen in the U.S. since 1999 experts say $1 a gallon is indeed possible, at least as long the stars continue to be in perfect alignment, so to speak. That means OPEC nations, especially Saudi Arabia, have to keep the pumps working overtime, oil prices have to maintain their downward trend (they’re already below $33 a barrel, compared to $100 in 2014), and refinery capacity has to remain at full bore without serious interruptions. And that’s with ongoing shale oil drilling continuing to bolster domestic supplies.
    • Originally conceived a few years ago back when gasoline was a budget buster and EVs were considered the salvation, $1.00 a gallon gasoline unfortunately makes the aforementioned Chevy Bolt look more like an overpriced small car than a high-tech zero-emissions money saver. Sales of hybrids and EVs dropped by around by 17 percent last year and will likely continue to plunge in the months ahead, even with additional models reaching the market. With fuel costs less of an issue, consumers are happily eschewing passenger cars for lower-mileage crossover SUVs and pickup trucks, with the latter now commanding sticker prices as high as $60,000 for their top luxury appointed models.

 SOURCES WHICH MAY BE RELEVANT TO OTHER DISCUSSION:

=======================================================

• The Crude Oil Export Ban–What, Me Worry About Peak Oil?, by Art Berman, Contributor (FORBES.COM) Dec 27, 2015 @ 12:18 PM 10,512 views
  • Peak oil is not about running out of oil. It is about what happens when the supply of conventional oil begins to decline. Once this happens, higher-cost, lower-quality sources of oil become increasingly necessary to meet global demand.
  • Congress ended the U.S. crude oil export ban last week. There is apparently no longer a strategic reason to conserve oil because shale production has made American great again.
  • The 1975 Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) that banned crude oil export was the closest thing to an energy policy that the United States has ever had. The law was passed after the price of oil increased in one month (January 1974) from $21 to $51 per barrel (2015 dollars) because of the Arab Oil Embargo.
  • The 1975 export ban was enacted because of the disastrous economic consequences of becoming dependent on imports following the peaking of U.S. oil production in 1970. Now that oil production is again close to peak levels, we have apparently forgotten that imports were the problem then and that we import twice as much today as in 1975.
  • Production of crude oil is higher today by 7% but consumption has grown to more than 16 mmbpd, an increase of 32%. At the time of the Arab Oil Embaro, consumption was only 12 mmbpd.
  • So, consumption has increased by one-third and imports have doubled but we no longer need to think strategically about oil supply because production is a little higher?
  • The technology behind tight oil has also made it the world’s most expensive barrel.
• 40 Percent Of Ford Models To Be Electrified By 2020, by Sarah Shelton December 21, 2015 (http://www.hybridcars.com): By 2020, Ford wants 40 percent of its global lineup to be offered as a plug-in or hybrid variant.
  • To reach this goal, Ford will be investing $4.5 billion and adding 13 electrified models to its lineup, calling [this] the “largest-ever electrified vehicle investment in a five-year period” for the company.
• Hillary Clinton targets corporate inversion with new ‘exit tax’ plan: Tax is part of Democratic presidential frontrunner’s strategy to ‘rein in Wall Street’ on the heels of Pfizer’s plan to merge with Allergan and move to Ireland. The proposals are part of Clinton’s larger economic agenda, which includes boosting infrastructure spending by $275bn. Photograph: Jose Luis Magana/AP
• Donald Trump:
  • The best example of why highly successful business people should absolutely NOT be president?
    • Authoritarian?
    • Unable to tolerate – or even comprehend – limits on their power?

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