AUDIO:

POSSIBLE TOPICS: VOTETEXAS.GOV—Voter Information; REGISTER TO VOTE; APPLY FOR MAIL-IN BALLOT; Microchipping mandatory for all Houston dogs and cats starting on Feb. 1;  Pearland ends 2022 with second-lowest unemployment in region;  The state of Homelessness and its impact to Houston-area businesses; Trans women athletes have no unfair advantage under current rules, report finds; How Arizona, California and other states are trying to generate a whole new water supply; Missing radioactive capsule found in Australia; Think tank simulation predicts ‘heavy’ losses on all sides, including US, if China invades Taiwan; How US Marines are being reshaped for China threat; After a historic first mission, what does the future hold for this controversial rocket?; BlueWalker 3, an enormous and bright communications satellite, is genuinely alarming astronomers; More.

Thinkwing Radio with Mike Honig (@ThinkwingRadio) is now on Wednesdays at 11AM (CT) on KPFT FM-HD2, Houston’s Community Station. You can also hear the show:

1. Live online at KPFT.org (from anywhere in the world!)
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Welcome to Thinkwing Radio with Mike Honig where we discuss local, state, national, and international stories. My co-host and show editor is Andrew Ferguson.

https://www.youtube.com/embed/EwrSlzZC31w

1. Make sure you are registered to vote! VoteTexas.GOV – Texas Voter Information
   1. It;s time to snail-mail (no emails or faxes) in your application for mail-ballots, IF you qualify TEXAS SoS VOTE-BY-MAIL BALLOT APPLICATION (ALL TEXAS COUNTIES) HarrisVotes.com­ – Countywide Voting Centers, (Election Information Line (713) 755-6965), Harris County Clerk
   2. Harris County “Vote-By-Mail’ Application for 2022
      1. Fort bend County Elections/Voter Registration Machine takes you to the proper link
      2. GalvestonVotes.org (Galveston County, TX)
      3. Liberty County Elections (Liberty County, TX)
      4. Montgomery County (TX) Elections
      5. Brazoria County (TX) Clerk Election Information
      6. Waller County (TX) Elections
      7. Chambers County (TX) Elections
      8. For personalized, nonpartisan voter guides and information, Consider visiting Vote.ORG.   Ballotpedia.com and Texas League of Women Voters are also good places to get election info.
      9. If you are denied your right to vote any place at any time at any polling place for any reason, ask for (or demand) a provisional ballot rather than lose your vote.
      10. HarrisVotes.com – Countywide Voting Centers, HARRIS COUNTY – IDENTIFICATION REQUIRED FOR VOTING: Do not possess and cannot reasonably obtain one of these IDs?
          1. Fill out a declaration at the polls describing a reasonable impediment to obtaining it, and show a copy or original of one of the following supporting forms of ID:
          2. A government document that shows your name and an address, including your voter registration certificate
          3. Current utility bill
          4. Bank statement
          5. Government check
          6. Paycheck
          7. A certified domestic (from a U.S. state or territory) birth certificate or (b) a document confirming birth admissible in a court of law which establishes your identity (which may include a foreign birth document)
          8. You may vote early by-mail if:You are registered to vote and meet one of the following criteria:
             1. Away from the county of residence on Election Day and during the early voting period;
             2. Sick or disabled;
             3. 65 years of age or older on Election Day; or
             4. Confined in jail, but eligible to vote.
             5. Make sure you are registered:
             6. Ann Harris Bennett, Tax Assessor-Collector & Voter Registrar
             7. CHECK REGISTRATION STATUS HERE
             8. CLICK How to register to vote in Texas
             9. Outside Texas, try Vote.org.
2. BE REGISTERED TO VOTE, and if eligible, REMEMBER TO FILL OUT AND MAIL NEW MAIL-IN BALLOT APPLICATIONS FOR 2023.
   
   1. You can track your Mail Ballot Activity from our website with direct link provided here https://www.harrisvotes.com/Tracking
3. Microchipping mandatory for all Houston dogs and cats starting on Feb. 1; COM | Tuesday, January 31, 2023, 10:25AM
   1. Starting on Wednesday, all dog and cat owners in the city of Houston will be required to microchip their pets. The new rule is officially going into effect after the Houston City Council passed an ordinance last year. Initially, there was a year-long grace period for enforcing the microchipping requirement, but that ends on Feb. 1^st.
   2. It’s part of a three-step process to completing a pet registration with the city.
   3. The City of Houston Municipal Code requires that anyone who owns, keeps, possesses, or has control of a dog or cat that’s at least 4 months old must have their pet registered, microchipped and vaccinated against rabies every year.
   4. BARC, Houston’s animal shelter and adoption center, is offering free microchips from 8 a.m. to 10 a.m. on Jan 31, Feb. 6 and Feb. 7. BARC is located at 3300 Carr St.
   5. The city says the microchips help animal control return your pet to you if it’s lost.
   6. MIKE: I totally support microchipping and the full range of pet vaccinations as needed and recommended. And I had no idea that this was an ordinance in Houston. Of the two of us, Andrew would be in the better position to know. But a question I have is, can you now be too poor to have a loving pet? Can you be too poor to have children? While BARC will be offering some days of free microchipping and vaccination, what about the rest of the days of the year. Is this going to be like “sales tax-free weekends”, available when and how government doles them out?
   7. MIKE: In principle, I support this ordinance. But how it’s implemented and against whom troubles me.
   8. ANDREW: Your concern about cost is a good one. I did a little research and didn’t find a microchipping service in Houston cheaper than $30 (though some places offer it at reduced cost with another service). That’s not impossible, but it’s not insignificant either. Let’s also not forget that a microchip needs your personal information to be useful in reuniting you and your pet– so you need to have at least an address, a reliable phone number, or an email address that you can check regularly.
   9. ANDREW: Many houseless people care for animals (and care for them well, often making sure they can afford food for their pet before themselves). That initial cost and having useful personal information to put on a microchip can both be problems for someone in that situation, or any other situation where money is tight.
   10. ANDREW: I agree that this is a good idea for policy, but the people responsible for implementation and enforcement do need to keep poor and houseless pet owners in mind. I don’t want beloved pets taken away from good owners because of this ordinance.
4. Pearland ends 2022 with second-lowest unemployment in region; By Daniel Weeks | COMMUNITYIMPACT.COM | 4:52 PM CST, Jan 31, 2023
   Updated 4:52 PM Jan 31, 2023 CST
   3. … The December 2022 Houston Area Employment Situation report released by Gulf Coast Workforce Solutions showed Pearland had the second-lowest unemployment rate at 3.1%, just above Sugar Land at 3%. …
   4. MIKE: Let’s hope things can stay on that track while the radical House Republicans make serious efforts to blow up the national and planetary economies.
5. The state of Homelessness and its impact to Houston-area businesses; By Taisha Walker, Reporter | CLICK2HOUSTON.COM | Published: January 27, 2023 at 7:34 PM
   1. The Coalition For The Homeless wrapped up its annual multi-day count Friday of the homeless population across three counties.
   2. Downtown Houston was among the areas included. One business in the area said the proximity of homeless tents can be an eyesore and has sparked safety concerns among its customers. …
   3. “Before we had what was called tent city right in front. And we have big windows, [so] that was our view for a long time,” said Danny Ruiz, General Manager of Tout Suite.
   4. Ruiz said having homeless tents directly across from their café can leave customers with a negative perception that their safety is in jeopardy. He said that hasn’t been the best for business. …
   5. Ana Rausch is the Vice President of Program Operations with the Coalition For The Homeless.
   6. This week more than volunteers counted and surveyed the homeless population in Harris, Fort Bend, and Montgomery Counties to gauge the state of homelessness.
   7. “People experiencing homelessness are more likely to be victims of a crime than commit a crime so there are a lot of stereotypes around homelessness,” Rausch said.
   8. In 2022, the number of people experiencing homelessness decreased by 20% compared to pre-covid levels in 2020, according to the coalition.
   9. ANDREW: I like the emphasis here that houseless people are not inherently dangerous, and that thinking of them as if they are doesn’t just hurt them, but can have other impacts as well. Houseless people are members of our communities. They’re neighbors, just as much as anybody who’s paying for a place to live is. 
   10. ANDREW: Anybody can be dangerous, whether they have an address or not, and avoiding places where houseless people gather can be bad for businesses and the community as a whole. Treat houseless people like anyone else you might meet on the street, and you won’t face any more danger than you would from anyone else.
   11. MIKE: I agree with Andrew, although I’d be more likely to use phraseology from the last century. But I will recount this experience. As a window covering installer over 20 years, I’ve been in all kinds of neighborhoods with all kinds of homes, from the multimillions of dollars to the tens of thousands of dollars, and it’s taught me not assume anything about people based on the how or where they live.
   12. REFERENCE: The Coalition For The Homeless
6. How Arizona, California and other states are trying to generate a whole new water supply; by Gianna Melillo | THEHILL.COM | 01/22/23, 5:00 PM ET
   1. Underground storage may be a key for Western states navigating water shortages and extreme weather.  
   2. Aquifers under the ground have served as a reliable source of water for years. During rainy years, the aquifers would fill up naturally, helping areas get by in the dry years. 
   3. But growing demand for water coupled with climate change has resulted in shortages as states pump out water from aquifers faster than they can be replenished. …
   4. By overpumping aquifers “you’ve created space. There’s space under the ground that used to be filled with water,” explained Michael Kiparsky, water program director at the Center for Law, Energy & the Environment at the University of California, Berkeley School of Law.   
   5. “And what we can do with these groundwater recharge projects is take advantage of that space, which is vastly greater than the sum of all of the surface storage reservoirs that exist now or could be built,” he said.  
   6. Several communities across California, Arizona and other stateshave been using managed aquifer recharge for years to better regulate local water supplies.  
   7. If implemented on a wide enough scale, recharge projects hold the potential to bolster water security in drought-stricken regions while improving the health of the environment.  …
   8. Groundwater recharge projects can take many different forms.  
   9. Communities could create percolation basins, where stormwater or excess river flows are collected in basins that are intentionally left open. Over time, water settles itself into the soil below and eventually into aquifers. “Dry wells”, which stop above the water table and allow water to percolate the rest of the way, can be constructed, along with injection wells, which lead water directly into aquifers.  …
   10. [The city of Tucson] uses “soils as the treatment method for the surface water,” explained Sharon B. Megdal, director of the University of Arizona Water Resources Research Center in an interview with Changing America.  
   11. The surface water infiltrates into the aquifers and mixes with the existing groundwater, and then officials can pull out that blended mixed water to serve customers, she said.  
   12. Despite the established nature of Arizona’s programs, groundwater is still over pumped in some areas, and aquifer levels continue to decline. ..
   13. One type of groundwater recharge project is called Flood-MAR, or flood-managed aquifer recharge. As part of this process, water managers could divert water accumulated in rivers during big flows to other areas, flooding land during the winter, or wet season, and farming the land in the summer. … Legal questions also come into play when projects aim to capture floodwater, as claims on downstream flows may already exist. 
   14. Additional challenges with recharge projects arise when water is collected in urban settings. Cities may not be located above opportune geological conditions for water to seep into aquifers. Groundwater in urban areas can also be contaminated with oil drippings or bits of tires from cars. Although this water can be treated before it’s put into the aquifer, treatment can be expensive.  
   15. For other projects, communities need to determine the best sites for recharge to mitigate the need for building new transfer infrastructure. …
   16. Despite the many challenges unique to collecting different types of water at different times, through different means and in different areas, “there’s a lot of opportunity to implement [managed aquifer recharge] depending upon what water source you’re talking about, what ultimate use you’re talking about,” said [Sharon B. Megdal, director of the University of Arizona Water Resources Research Center]. …
   17. Not only can increased water storage help with water security in the future, but higher groundwater levels can also reconnect with streams, improving conditions for fish and vegetation along the stream’s corridor.  
   18. “We have and will continue to have too much water when we don’t want it and not enough when we do, and so storage is the key,” said Kiparsky. …
   19. ANDREW: This sounds like a very reasonable and practical idea. Water is a resource, and it’s always a good idea for communities to have resources stored in case of emergency. If there’s space underground, and that space naturally holds water anyway, it makes sense to use that space as storage.
   20. ANDREW: The issues of filtering and legal rights aren’t surprising, but they can both be best addressed by policy and funding that prioritizes the needs of the group over those of the individual. Raising taxes a smidge on those who can best afford it, or redirecting funding from departments that can best afford it, in order to pay for the filtering process makes sense to me, because without it everyone has less water, and while money can facilitate trade, it can’t facilitate life like water can. 
   21. ANDREW: Downstream flow rights warrant a bit more nuance, I would say. When those rights are held by private entities like beverage bottling plants or private landowners, partially or temporarily completely overriding those rights makes sense to me. Ideally, that would only be done when the rightsholder isn’t cooperative with the state authority, and offering some reimbursement (reduced for how much the private entity has depleted the aquifer themselves) could help smooth things over. But when those rights are held by communities, state authorities bringing local authorities into the fold on these projects will probably lead to more public engagement and less animosity, enabling a better result.
   22. ANDREW: Sometimes in politics, what’s right is difficult and needs to be done anyway, but it’s reasonable to look for ways to make what must be done easier while still keeping it the right thing to do.
   23. MIKE: Water supplies will be a continuing big story as the years roll on. Expect to hear more.
7. Trans women athletes have no unfair advantage under current rules, report finds; ‘The performance advantages from social factors, training and access to equipment are far greater than testosterone,’ paper concludes. By Anne-Marije Rook | | 1/25/2023, published 5 days ago
   1. A report on transgender women athletes in elite sport has found that if UCI rules are adhered to, there is currently no substantial evidence of any biological advantages for trans women competing in elite women’s sport.
   2. It found there was little evidence that biomedical factors related to male puberty such as lung size, bone density and hip-to-knee joint angle predict an unfair advantage. But some evidence that social factors like nutrition, training and access to equipment do.
   3. [MIKE NOTE: biomedical (MERRIAM-WEBSTER.COM): adjective, bio·​med·​i·​cal ˌbī-ō-ˈme-di-kəl. : of or relating to biomedicine: of, relating to, or involving biological, medical, and physical science]
   4. These are just some of the key findings listed in an 86-page report titled Transgender Women Athletes and Elite Sport: A Scientific Review, which was published in late 2022 and commissioned by the Canadian Centre for Ethics in Sport (CCES), an ethical sport advocacy non-profit with a vision of fair, safe, accessible, and inclusive sport for everyone. 
   5. The inclusion of trans women in elite women’s sport has been a hot button issue of late with high profile instances such as Emily Bridges‘ attempt to compete in the UK sparking concern and upset on all sides. While the inclusion of trans women has led to protests by those who worry that cis women (the term for women born anatomically female) are at a competitive disadvantage at some U.S. races.
   6. However, the report concluded that “the fears that cis women need be protected from trans women in elite sport are unsubstantiated and misplaced. …
   7. The report is an in-depth review of all scientific literature published between 2011 and the end of 2021 in English, regarding transgender women and their participation in elite sport. 
   8. Relying only on peer-reviewed articles or syntheses of academic literature in reputable academic journals, the study explores both the biomedical and sociocultural perspectives when it comes to the question of trans inclusion in sports.
   9. The biomedical perspective is the primary consideration of sports governing bodies around the globe and commonly the center of the fairness debate. Many trans athlete inclusion policies, the UCI’s included, look to testosterone level boundaries and medicalized interventions —such as the suppression of testosterone and supplementation of estrogen— to level the playing field (for more detail see below). 
   10. After reviewing the scientific literature of the past decade, however, the report finds that not only are these boundaries arbitrary, the studies are flawed and inconclusive.
   11. The review points to shortcomings such as using non-athletic trans women as subjects; inadequately adjusting data for factors such as height or weight; little understanding of the (disadvantageous) effects of hormone therapy; not differentiating between performance-enhancing doping and naturally occurring serum testosterone; or the little attention given to the fact that distribution of testosterone levels between elite cisgender men and elite cisgender women athletes overlaps.
   12. The analysis did not show support for the argument that testosterone exposure and the biomedical factors related to male puberty such as lung size, bone density and hip-to-knee joint angle lead to athletic advantages. 
   13. “There is not one discrete biomarker that allows easy comparison of athletes’ bodies to each other in terms of performance,” the study concludes. …
   14. MIKE: First, I think it’s important to note that this is an article by a cycling journalist and not a science journalist. The key words in the title are, “Under Current Rules,”, so this is simply a rules-based story. I’ll also note that page 5 of the cited report states under “METHODS: The findings of this report result from a thorough literature scan in May/June 2021. Academic (i.e., peer-reviewed primary or synthesized secondary research journal articles) and grey literature (not peer reviewed, reports, policy documents, do not follow a scientific process) were included.”
   15. MIKE: My concerns are not hormonal. Males and females — whether cis- or trans — are already tested for hormones and performance-enhancing drugs such as steroids, of which testosterone is one.
   16. MIKE: My concerns about trans-women competing with cis-women are biomechanical, and I think that’s where the concerns of many cis-female athletes are. I’ll note as an aside that we don’t hear many complaints from cis-males competing against trans-males, except the occasional locker room paranoia. This disparity of perception alone is interesting, and not often addressed in the overall context of trans-athletes vs. cis-athletes.
   17. MIKE: A quick net search turns up a mix of articles, pro- and con-. (Mostly con.) A lot of it is almost conjectural. Short of the article from NIH (which I’m not sure is unbiased, since it is just a review of pre-existing literature), I’m not sure I can find anything I’d consider scientifically authoritative, but my resources are limited.
   18. MIKE: Potential advantages of transwomen may have to do with biomechanics, age of transition, pre- and post-transition environment, and factors I can’t imagine.
   19. MIKE: I don’t think the definitive study has been done. It’s possible that both advocates and antagonists may not actually want a scientifically conclusive answer, since that means one side may authoritatively lose the argument. As long as it’s about human rights vs. perceived competitive fairness, all sides can claim righteousness.
   20. ANDREW: How are you defining “biomechanical”? The factors mentioned in the article (lung size, bone density, and hip-to-knee joint angle) seem pretty mechanical to me, and yet the conclusion is they don’t confer any unfair advantage.
   21. ANDREW: I have also noticed that trans men in sports don’t tend to get the same reaction that trans women do. I personally think this has roots in misogyny — femininity is considered by misogynists as a “pure” idea that needs “defending”, and when a trans woman presents as a woman, it’s seen as an attack on that idea. I don’t think masculinity is treated the same way, so trans men aren’t opposed in the same way. They’re still opposed, but it’s pure transphobia as opposed to transphobia AND misogyny.
   22. ANDREW: I believe that like so many other LGBT issues, the push-back against trans women athletes is really based upon cisgender people’s discomfort with the social norms they were raised with not being followed. From there, people are looking for other things to use as justifications to act on that discomfort and enforce those norms. I don’t think that’s okay, and I don’t think it’s going to change until organizations start making decisions without caring about cisgender people’s transphobic discomfort.
   23. ANDREW: There’s no less-controversial way to handle this; trans athletes will face transphobia no matter who they compete against, so we might as well respect their identities. As long as we insist on segregating sports by gender, trans athletes might as well be allowed to compete against people who are the same gender as them regardless of if that gender was assigned to them by society or not.
   24. MIKE: Examples of biomechanics might be how pelvic ratios matter in body mechanics. How comparatively efficient the heart-lung system might be in pumping blood and utilizing oxygen? Is there a difference between ciswomen and transwomen elite athletes in oxygen usage and energy conversion or utilization on the cellular level?
   25. MIKE: My questions are just questions. The story itself cites the article by saying, “After reviewing the scientific literature of the past decade, however, the report finds that not only are these boundaries arbitrary, the studies are flawed and inconclusive.” That’s also my stance. We need more and better science in this area, not social constructs.
   26. ANDREW: I would still consider the factors mentioned in the article to be biomechanics, but I can appreciate your stance in favor of more research. Medical science doesn’t tend to include transgender people in studies very often, so this sort of research may also help advance those areas and enable better care for the trans community.
   27. MIKE: So, we are in some agreement.
   28. REFERENCE: Transwoman Elite Athletes: Their Extra Percentage Relative to Female Physiology – NIH
   29. REFERENCE (The cited report): Transgender Women Athletes and Elite Sport: A Scientific Review
   30. REFERENCE: Transgender Women in the Female Category of Sport: Perspectives
       on Testosterone Suppression and Performance Advantage — ACLU.ORG
   31. REFERENCE: Transgender Athletes in Sports Competitions: How Policy Measures Can Be More Inclusive and Fairer to All — ORG
   32. REFERENCE: Transgender Women in the Female Category of Sport — ACLU.ORG
8. MIKE: You can breathe easy now, especially if you live in Australia.
9. Missing radioactive capsule found in Australia; By Peter Hoskins and James Fitzgerald | BBC News, BBC.COM | Published Feb 1, 2023, 28 minutes ago
   1. Authorities in Australia say they have found a tiny radioactive capsule which went missing last week.
   2. Emergency services had “literally found the needle in the haystack”, authorities in Western Australia said.
   3. A huge search was triggered when the object was lost while being transported along a 1,400km (870-mile) route across the state.
   4. Mining giant Rio Tinto apologised for losing the device, which could have posed a serious danger if handled.
   5. The capsule – which is 6mm (0.24 inches) in diameter and 8mm long – contains a small quantity of Caesium-137, which could cause skin damage, burns or radiation sickness. …
   6. The device is part of a density gauge, which was being used at Rio Tinto’s Gudai-Darri mine in the remote Kimberley region of Western Australia. The company had earlier promised to launch an investigation into what had happened. …
   7. Authorities said vibrations during transit may have caused [fasteners] to become loose, allowing the capsule to fall through gaps in the casing and truck.
   8. This incident came as Rio Tinto tries to repair its reputation in Australia.
   9. In 2020, Rio Tinto blasted the 46,000-year-old rock shelters at Juukan Gorge in Western Australia to expand an iron ore mine, sparking a major outcry that led to several of the company’s top bosses standing down.
   10. And last year, a parliamentary inquiry found sexual harassment was rife at Australia’s mining firms, after an internal review at Rio Tinto found more than 20 women had reported actual or attempted rape or sexual assault over five years.
   11. MIKE: If the name “Rio Tinto” sounds familiar, it’s because of the aforementioned boo-boo in 2020 of blowing up that 46,000 year-old cultural site, which just happened to be holding up mining in that area due to extended litigation, and which we discussed on this show at the time.
   12. MIKE: Do I think that the 2020 faux pas was entirely a mistake? My intellect says that I have no evidence otherwise. But my gut says, I don’t think so. You don’t just blow up an important prehistoric site involved in years of locally well-covered legal issues by mistake. A mistake like that takes considerable planning and resources.
   13. MIKE: Do I think that Rio Tinto deliberately lost that Cesium capsule? No, I don’t, but not because of their good corporate citizenship. Rather, I see no financial or PR upside for them to do so.
   14. “Rio Tinto: Blowing up prehistoric cultural landmarks since at least 2020.”
10. Think tank simulation predicts ‘heavy’ losses on all sides, including US, if China invades Taiwan; by Brad Dress | THEHILL.COM/POLICY/DEFENSE | 01/09/23 12:56 PM ET
    1. A war games simulation of a full-scale Chinese invasion of the self-governing island nation of Taiwan predicts “heavy losses” for all parties likely to be involved, including the U.S. and Japan.
    2. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) ran the simulation of a 2026 Chinese invasion of Taiwan exactly 24 times, drawing on historical data and operational research. The simulation’s events are included in an extensive report released Monday.
    3. In most scenarios, an alliance between the U.S., Japan and Taiwan defeated China after three or four weeks of fighting — but at the loss of dozens of ships, hundreds of aircraft and tens of thousands of troops.
    4. Mark Cancian, a senior adviser with the CSIS International Security Program and an author of the report, told The Hill the big takeaway from the simulation is that Taiwan can be sustained as an independent nation.
    5. “But the cost is very high,” he added.
    6. In the report, Cancian recommended policies and efforts to deter a future invasion, noting that even if a war is seen as risky for China, the nation still might consider a direct conflict. …
    7. The model forecasts 19 scenarios in which Japan gets involved in the conflict. Japan is ambiguous about defending Taiwan, but Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced last year a historic switch from a defense-only strategy and a major boost to its annual defense spending.
    8. Although China has a larger presence in the South China Sea, the U.S. still has a stronger military across the globe, and several pessimistic conditions would have to come true for a military loss in the war, researchers said.
    9. “What China is trying to do is very, very difficult,” said Cancian. “An amphibious assault on a hostile shore — even though the [Taiwan Strait] is 100 miles across — is just very, very hard.”
    10. Still, any direct conflict between China and the U.S. would devastate Taiwan and possibly weaken the U.S. on the global stage, the simulation found. …
    11. CSIS also did not simulate a scenario in which nuclear weapons are used, which would mean an entirely different type of warfare, or the possibility of a Chinese blockade of the island. …
    12. Matthew Cancian, who modeled the conflict with his father Mark and has simulated other war games at the U.S. Naval War College, said the simulation is not “advocating” for the U.S. to “defend or not to defend” Taiwan.
    13. “It’s just showing the cost and likely results of those choices,” he said.
    14. MIKE: This is another case for deterrence, or “Peace Through Strength.” An expensive military seems to many folks like a waste of money, but it’s still a lot cheaper than fighting an actual war.
    15. MIKE: But an expensive military needs a strong and robust economic and manufacturing base to support it. That’s why I’m a little bit of a protectionist and an advocate on “on-shoring”; i.e., bring jobs and industry back to US shores.
    16. MIKE: It may seem hard to believe now, but there was a long period of time when the US actually had a “peacetime armed forces”. From the end of the Korean War in 1953 until the start of massive US involvement in Vietnam in 1968, the US actually had a military with a big foreign presence, but no significant military engagements.
    17. MIKE: This was the case in a bipolar world (the US and the USSR), and no nations that were strong enough and sufficiently antagonistic enough to challenge the us with a decent chance of success.
    18. MIKE: Until Vietnam, the US post-WW2 operational strategy was a 2-1/2 war capability, meaning major transpacific and transatlantic wars, plus a “small” war someplace. Vietnam changed this calculus.
    19. MIKE: In a world where the US is relatively weaker, it’s still the single most powerful country among rising regional and near-global competitors. With strong alliances like NATO, and with partners like Japan, South Korea and Australia, and perhaps India, “peace through strength” is still possible, but it’s increasingly challenging.
    20. ANDREW: The problem with “peace through strength” is that the kinds of people who build strength are the kinds of people who want to use that strength. This is true not just for the US, but all around the world, regardless of political ideology. The human drive to compete is just too strong to make deterrence a feasible long-term strategy. Think of that quote you like, “it’s a shame to have a big military and not use it” (paraphrased). It’s what would be behind a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, or a US coup in China, or a Russian invasion of Ukraine.
    21. ANDREW: I think humans need to fight every so often to relieve pressure, and I think the best possible approach to take there is to limit one’s forces to only what is necessary to defend oneself (plus a little extra to plug any gaps), so that if a fight does break out, the possible damage is limited.
    22. MIKE: To be fair, you’re too young to remember a period in history called “peacetime’. I hope you have a chance to see one.
    23. REFERENCE: With China, America faces a preparedness crisis; by Aaron Friedberg and Michael Wessel, Opinion Contributors | THEHILL.COM/OPINION | 01/06/23 1:00 PM ET
11. MIKE: The next story is punnily on the brighter side of our topics …
12. BlueWalker 3, an enormous and bright communications satellite, is genuinely alarming astronomers; By Michael J. I. Brown | SPACE.COM | Jan. 8, 2023, published about 10 hours ago
    1. The night sky is a shared wilderness. On a dark night, away from the city lights, you can see the stars in the same way as your ancestors did centuries ago. …
    2. But like any wilderness, the night sky can be polluted. Since Sputnik 1 in 1957, thousands of satellitesand pieces of space junk have been launched into orbit.
    3. For now, satellites crossing the night sky are largely a curiosity. But with the advent of satellite constellations — containing hundreds or thousands of satellites — this could change.
    4. The recent launch of BlueWalker 3, a prototype for a satellite constellation, raises the prospect of bright satellites contaminating our night skies. At 64 square meters, it’s the largest commercial communications satellite in low Earth orbit — and very bright. …
    5. [I]n the past few years, the pace of satellite launches has accelerated. SpaceX has made satellite launches cheaper, and it has been launching thousands of Starlink satellites that provide internet services.
    6. Roughly 50 Starlink satellites are launched into orbit by each Falcon 9 rocket …
    7. Once the Starlink satellites disperse and move to their operational orbits, they are near the limit of what can be seen with the unaided eye.
    8. However, such satellites are bright enough to produce trails in images taken with telescopes. These trails overwrite the stars and galaxies underneath them, which can only be remedied by taking additional images. Short transient phenomena, such as a brief flash from a gamma-ray burst, could potentially be lost. …
    9. Amazon’s Blue Origin plans to launch more than 3,200 Project Kuiper satellites, and AST SpaceMobile plans to launch 100 BlueBird satellites (and perhaps more).
    10. The recently launched BlueBird prototype, BlueWalker 3, has produced genuine alarm among astronomers.
    11. … BlueWalker 3 … unfolded a 64 square metre communications array [MIKE: That’s almost 690 square feet] — roughly the size of a squash court. This vast surface is very good at reflecting sunlight, and BlueWalker 3 is now as bright as some of the brightest stars in the night sky.
    12. It’s possible the operational BlueBird satellites could be even biggerand brighter. …
    13. There could be a big impact on professional astronomy. Brighter satellites do more damage to astronomical images than faint satellites.
    14. Furthermore, many of these satellites broadcast at radio frequencies that could interfere with radio astronomy, transmitting radio waves above remote sites where radio observatories observe the heavens.
    15. What happens next is uncertain. The International Astronomical Union has communicated its alarm about satellite constellations, and BlueWalker 3 in particular.
    16. However, the approval of satellite constellations by the S. Federal Communications Commissionhas had relatively little consideration of environmental impacts.
    17. This has recently been flagged as a major problem by the S. Government Accountability Office, but whether this leads to concrete change is unclear.
    18. We may be on the edge of a precipice. Will the night sky be cluttered with bright artificial satellites for the sake of internet or 5G? Or will we pull back and preserve the night sky as a globally shared wilderness?
    19. ANDREW: There’s a balance to everything. I would love for every human to have reliable access to fast internet no matter where in the world they are. But I don’t want to give up humanity’s ability to study space from the ground. I believe the number of satellites in orbit needs to be carefully controlled in order to establish the balance between these concerns.
    20. ANDREW: Besides, limiting satellites doesn’t mean that improving internet access becomes impossible. There’s plenty of large and small transmitters on Earth that provide good coverage at reasonable speeds, and I think focusing on improving and propagating those systems could produce the same result without blocking off the stars. It’s just a question of whether someone (ideally governments) will spend the needed money.
    21. MIKE: When SpaceX began launching their Starlink satellites, the genie was out of the bottle. Now, in addition to the tens of thousands of Starlink low-orbit satellites, other companies and countries are launching their own orbiting satellite clusters.
    22. MIKE: If I recall correctly, Elon Musk hasn’t taken the problem particularly seriously, although SpaceX has been taking some steps to reduce the reflectivity of their satellites. Musk’s opinion is that we should be doing astronomy from earth orbit and from the Moon, so clouds of satellites surrounding Earth is not his biggest concern.
    23. MIKE: This used to be the stuff of golden age science fiction novels: The rugged, entrepreneurial individualist following his own ambitions to get rich while doing what he thought was best for humanity, other people’s opinions be damned. Are now seeing the result of the chicken or the egg? Either way, humanity will have to live with the decisions of a relatively few specimens of the species.

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