Now in our 12th year on KPFT!

Going forward, new shows will post for Thursday at 6PM (CT) broadcast and re-run on Sundays at 1PM and Wednesdays at 11AM.

AUDIO:

POSSIBLE TOPICS:

1. New Harris County animal shelter euthanasia policy leads to uptick in adoptions, rescues officials say;
2. Judge Lina Hidalgo fires back at ‘completely untrue’ claims by Houston Mayor;
3. Michigan House votes to require destruction of guns surrendered in police buyback programs;
4. FBI informant who lied about Biden ‘bribes’ pleads guilty;
5. Donald Trump — TIME Person Of The Year;
6. High-tech radar used in Ukraine-Russia war to be deployed to crack Northeast drone mystery;
7. Europe’s next top diplomat is ready to be undiplomatic;
8. Israel has no more excuses for entering Syria, rebel leader Julani says in first major TV interview;
9. Jordan seeks to ensure regional security and stability, including in Syria, including by involving the international community in these prospects.;
10. Syria Refused to Accept Final Borders. It’s Paying For That Now.;
11. PA crackdown adds to Hamas woes that are bringing hostage deal closer – analysis;

Welcome to Thinkwing Radio with Mike Honig where we discuss local, state, national, and international stories. 

Thinkwing Radio with Mike Honig (@ThinkwingRadio) is now on Wednesdays at 11AM (CT) or Thursdays at 6PM on KPFT 90.1 FM-HD2, Houston’s Community Media. You can also hear the show:

1. Live online at KPFT.org (from anywhere in the world!)
2. Podcast on your phone’s Podcast App
3. Visiting Archive.KPFT.ORG

Except for timely election info, the extensive list of voting resources will now be at the end.

1. New Harris County animal shelter euthanasia policy leads to uptick in adoptions, rescues officials say; By Emily Lincke | COMMUNITYIMPACT.COM | 1:22 PM Dec 17, 2024 CST/Updated 1:22 PM Dec 17, 2024 CST. TAGS: Harris County Pets, Harris County Veterinary Public Health (HCVPC), Harris County Public Health, Animal Euthanasia, Pet Adoption,
   1. Since a policy change shortening the maximum time animals can stay at Harris County’s animal shelter before being euthanized went into effect Nov. 1, adoptions and rescues have increased, county department officials say.
   2. … Under Harris County Pets’ new policy, animals can stay a maximum of 15 days in the shelter before “being considered” for euthanasia, according to the policy posting on the website of Harris County Veterinary Public Health [HC VPHD], which oversees Harris County Pets. Previously, animals were allowed 30 days.
   3. “Euthanasia is a last resort,’’ a spokesperson for Harris County Public Health — which operates VPHD — said in a Dec. 9 email. “Our new policy provides a consistent process that gives every healthy and adoptable animal the chance to find a home, while fostering collaborative efforts with rescue partners and community members.”
   4. An increase in adoptions and animal transports/rescues has occurred at Harris County Pets since the Nov. 1 euthanasia policy change, according to the emailed statement.
   5. However, according to data posted on VPHD’s online data hub, from October to November, the shelter’s live release rate—the percentage of adopted or rescued animals—decreased 6.6 percentage points. …
   6. … Harris County’s animal shelter has had a history of battling overcrowding, as previously reported by Community Impact. Every month of 2024 thus far, Harris County Pets has been over capacity for dogs, according to VPHD’s online data hub. Meanwhile, the shelter was over capacity for cats in May and June.
   7. … At a 10 Harris County Commissioners Court meeting, Dreux Antoine, chairman for Houston nonprofit “A Better Day Foundation”, spoke about euthanasia policies at animal shelters in Harris County.
   8. “I am asking Judge [Lina] Hidalgo and each commissioner to implement an executive order which will suspend euthanization of healthy and adoptable pets as we work on a long-term solution, which includes proposing a bond to fund opening additional shelters in Harris County if the only reason shelters are euthanizing animals [is] due to overcrowding,” Antoine said.
   9. … According to HCPH’s Dec. 9 email, Harris County Pets needs the support of the community through: Raising awareness on responsible pet ownership; Residents getting their pets spayed or neutered, and vaccinated; Volunteering; [and] Adopting animals from the shelter.
   10. “The issue of stray and unwanted animals is a community problem,” the HCPH spokesperson said via the Dec. 9 email. “As the county shelter, we are mandated to take all homeless/unwanted animals, even if we are at capacity or the animal is sick, vicious, or unadoptable. We do the best we can with the resources we have to work with.”
   11. MIKE: It’s a tragic, terrible shame when a healthy, adoptable animal is destroyed simply for lack of space and resources. If increasing physical capacity would help to mitigate the problems that are claimed to be caused specifically by overcrowding, I would vote for a bond issue to expand those physical facilities. Would you?
2. Judge Lina Hidalgo fires back at ‘completely untrue’ claims by Houston Mayor; By Faith Bugenhagen, Trending News Reporter | CHRON.COM | Dec 12, 2024. TAGS: Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo, Houston Mayor John Whitmire,
   1. Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo is denying Houston Mayor John Whitmire’s claims that she will not seek a third term in 2026. 
   2. In an interview with the Houston Chronicle [last] Thursday, Whitmire implied that Hidalgo — who has led Harris County since 2018 — was considering stepping down from the top executive leadership spot. Her term as Harris County Judge ends on Dec. 31, 2026.
   3. “She’s fixing to announce that she’s not going to run,” Whitmire told The Chronicle.
   4. “She’s not enjoying her work. And she’s happy now. I saw on social media she got back this weekend from her wedding destination,” Whitmire said. “But let me tell you what, this is a tough job at any level. You definitely lose your privacy. She’s obviously documented some of her emotional issues, which, this is a terrible profession to be in if you’re struggling with pressure.”  
   5. In response to Whitmire’s claims, Hidalgo’s office said the mayor’s claims were “completely untrue.”
   6. [Hidalgo’s spokesperson told Chron,] “Judge Hidalgo is fully focused on serving the people of Harris County and continuing to deliver on the priorities that matter most to our community. At this time, we have no announcement to make regarding future elections.”
   7. Whitmire went on to support the possibility of potential challenger, former Houston Mayor Annise Parker, taking over Hidalgo’s post. 
   8. “I think Annise would make a great county judge,” Whitmire said. “But I’m also smart enough to know to wait and see if Hidalgo does what supposedly is supposed to happen.” 
   9. In response to Whitmire’s claims, Hidalgo’s office said the mayor’s claims were “completely untrue.”
   10. “Judge Hidalgo and her team have made significant strides throughout her time in office and look forward to continuing the great work in 2025.” 
   11. This is not the first time that Whitmire has taken aim at Hidalgo. There have been several moments of a noticeable political divide between the two top leaders since Whitmire came into office. The two leaders have often held separate press conferences during Houston’s biggest disasters, and Hidalgo has noted that Whitmire delayed meeting her in an official capacity after he was elected. 
   12. It’s also not the first time Whitmire’s remarks have encroached on Hidalgo’s personal life. In a deleted social media comment, the mayor jabbed at Hidalgo’s now-husband, David James’ physical appearance. 
   13. Hidalgo was elected at 27. She is the first woman and first Latina to serve in her post. She is up for reelection in 2026, when Harris County voters will elect the Republican and Democrat nominees in May and subsequently choose from these two candidates in November. 
   14. MIKE: I would have enthusiastically voted for John Whitmire for Texas governor because I think he had the conservative credentials to win as a Democrat in Texas. I don’t understand why he decided to run for the less important and less prestigious job of Houston Mayor instead, but he did, and I am increasingly proud of the fact that I did not vote for John Whitmire for mayor.
   15. MIKE: Frankly, I thought then and still believe now that Whitmire is too conservative for Houston. His track record so far has certainly not changed my mind.
   16. MIKE: What’s even worse, and what is more embarrassing for Houston and should be more embarrassing for Whitmire, is that he acts like a high school mean girl in matters relating to County Judge Lina Hidalgo. And if this were high school, I think that Whitmire’s treatment and comments about Hidalgo over the past year would qualify as bullying. Just because it’s between adults is no excuse for that kind of treatment.
   17. MIKE: I don’t know what his beef is with Hidalgo. Her endorsement of Sheila Jackson Lee for mayor seems to stick in his craw to this day, but Whitmire is a big boy. Politics is politics, and he should be mature enough after decades in Texas politics to set that aside. Mayor John Whitmire should coordinate with County Judge Lina Hidalgo when it is in the best interests of the citizens of both Houston and of Harris County.
   18. MIKE: This childish peevishness of prognosticating on Hidalgo’s future political plans should be beneath Whitmire, but apparently, it’s not.
   19. MIKE: More’s the shame and pity on Whitmire.
   20. MIKE: As a side note, after I had already written this up for recording, I saw a follow-up story from Wednesday the 18^th where Whitmire claims he was just, “… being sympathetic as another human can be.” 
   21. MIKE: I have links to both stories in this blog post. You can read them and judge for yourself.
   22. REFERENCE: ‘I was being sympathetic’: John Whitmire defends comments about Lina Hidalgo; The Houston mayor said he didn’t mean for it to get political. By Faith Bugenhagen, Trending News Reporter | CHRON.COM | Dec 18, 2024. TAGS: Houston Mayor John Whitmire, Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo,
3. Michigan House votes to require destruction of guns surrendered in police buyback programs; By Clara Hendrickson Paul Egan, Detroit Free Press |Dec. 13,2024. TAGS: Michigan Gun Buyback Program,
   1. Lawmakers in the state House passed legislation Thursday to update Michigan’s gun buyback program to require the complete destruction of the [recovered] firearm and prohibit any public auction of the weapon.
   2. Gun buyback programs allow those possessing firearms to voluntarily relinquish them.
   3. House Bills 6144, 6145 and 6146 would make the changes to the Michigan State Police’s gun buyback program, requiring the department to complete the destruction of firearms purchased by a municipality through a buyback program, prohibiting the resale of the firearm.
   4. The bills passed on party-line votes of 56-53. They now move to the Senate in the waning days of the Michigan Legislature’s lame-duck session.
   5. The votes on the bills come after an investigation by The New York Times published last year found that [the] Michigan State Police was one of the biggest clients of a firearms disposal company that destroyed one part of a firearm and resold other components. The Michigan State Police subsequently halted its contract with the company.
   6. [Said state Rep. Felicia Brabec, D-Pittsfield Township, chair of the Michigan Firearm Safety and Violence Prevention Caucus, in a statement Wednesday,]”I was appalled to find out that across the nation, buyback programs were turning around and giving firearms a second chance. This is simply unacceptable. I’ve been working hard to get this legislation ready — we must continue enacting policies to protect our communities, our kids and their futures.”
   7. But state Rep. Josh Schriver, R-Oxford, said during the Thursday House debate that the bills were a mistake.
   8. [Schriver said,] “This bill package mandates the complete destruction of firearms that citizens voluntarily surrender. In the past, police agencies had the discretion to auction them off or to re-use them.” Lawmakers should “leave it to the discretion of local law enforcement.”
   9. MIKE: Personally, I think that any gun buy-back program that turns around and resells guns or gun components is a waste of money to start with, and Republicans who insist on a “right to life” for guns are essentially saying that a gun’s “right to life” is more important than the right to life of a human who might one day be wounded or killed by that gun.
   10. MIKE: It’s just another ridiculous hypocrisy that Republicans live with every day.
4. FBI informant who lied about Biden ‘bribes’ pleads guilty; By Mike Wendling | BBC.COM | Dec. 16, 2024. TAGS: FBI, Russia, Hunter Biden, United States, Ukraine, Joe Biden,
   1. A former informant has pleaded guilty to lying to the US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) about a fake bribery scheme involving President Joe Biden and his son Hunter.
   2. Alexander Smirnov, 44, also admitted tax evasion after not reporting more than $2m (£1.58m) in income.
   3. His claims became the basis of an impeachment investigation in Congress which centred around the false claims that the Bidens made millions in bribes from Burisma, a Ukrainian energy company.
   4. But Smirnov admitted he made the story up, and pleaded guilty in Los Angeles on Monday as part of an agreement with prosecutors.
   5. Smirnov, a dual US-Israeli citizen, had been an FBI informant for more than a decade when he made the allegations about the Bidens in June 2020, saying that Joe and Hunter Biden each received $5m from the energy company.
   6. Prosecutors said Smirnov was motivated by “bias” against President Biden and that he spun his “routine and unextraordinary business contacts” with Burisma into tales about bribery that were “fabrications”.
   7. The FBI investigated his statements but within months recommended the case be closed without any legal action taken against the Bidens.
   8. But the allegations refused to die, and became the basis for a Republican-led drive to investigate President Biden, including an effort to make Smirnov’s initial statement public.
   9. Prosecutors say that when he was re-interviewed by FBI agents in September 2023, Smirnov doubled down on his claims.
   10. Smirnov was arrested in Nevada as he returned to the US from an overseas trip in February 2024.
   11. According to court documents, he had ties with Russian intelligence and used his more than $2m in unreported income to buy a Las Vegas condominium, a lease on a Bentley car, and hundreds of thousands of dollars of clothes, jewellery and accessories.
   12. The case was brought by Special Counsel David Weiss – who has overseen an investigation of Hunter Biden.
   13. Joe Biden issued a pardon for his son, who faced potential prison time for tax evasion and lying on a form about his drug addiction when he bought a gun.
   14. Smirnov will be sentenced in January. The plea agreement is subject to approval by a federal judge.
   15. He faces a maximum sentence of 35 years in prison and a $1m fine, however prosecutors and defence lawyers have agreed to a sentence of between four and six years and a restitution payment of $675,502, according to the plea deal.
   16. The BBC contacted Smirnov’s lawyers for comment.
   17. MIKE: As Rachel Maddow said on her Monday show, it’s unlikely that you’ll hear much about this plea deal on rightwing media because it invalidates their anti-Biden narrative. We’ll no doubt hear the original lies bubble up from the MAGA swamp for a long time to come, but this is the truth of the matter.
5. Donald Trump — TIME Person Of The Year; By Sam Jacobs | TIME.COM | December 12, 2024 7:40 AM EST. TAGS: TIME Magazine, Donald Trump, TIME Person of the Year,
   1. … For 97 years, the editors of TIME have been picking the Person of the Year: the individual who, for better or for worse, did the most to shape the world and the headlines over the past 12 months. In many years, that choice is a difficult one. In 2024, it was not.
   2. Since he began running for President in 2015, perhaps no single individual has played a larger role in changing the course of politics and history than Trump. He shocked many by winning the White House in 2016, then led the U.S. through a chaotic term that included the first year of a pandemic as well as a period of nationwide protest, and that ended with his losing the election by 7 million votes and provoking the violent attack on the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. The smart money wagered that we had witnessed the end of Trump.
   3. If that moment marked Trump’s nadir, today we are witnessing his apotheosis [Mike’s Link]. On the cusp of his second presidency, all of us—from his most fanatical supporters to his most fervent critics—are living in the Age of Trump. He dispatched his Republican rivals in near record time. For weeks, he campaigned largely from the New York ­courtroom where he would be convicted on 34 felony counts. His sole debate with President Joe Biden in June led to his opponent’s eventual exit from the race. Sixteen days later, he survived an assassination attempt at a campaign rally. In the sprint that followed, he outlasted Vice President Kamala Harris, sweeping all seven swing states and emerging from the election at the height of his popularity. “Look what happened,” Trump told his supporters in his election-­night victory speech. “Isn’t this crazy?” He almost couldn’t believe it himself.
   4. Trump has remade American politics in the process. He won by enlarging his base, seizing the frustration over rising prices and benefiting from a global turn against incumbents. With those tailwinds, exit polls suggest that he won the largest percentage of Black Americans for a Republican since Gerald Ford and the most Latino voters of any GOP nominee since George W. Bush. ­Suburban women, whose anger over restrictions to reproductive rights was thought to be a ­bulwark for the Democrats, moved not away but toward him. He became the first Republican in 20 years to win more votes than the Democrat, with 9 of 10 American counties increasing their support for Trump from 2020.
   5. Now we watch as members of Congress, international institutions, and global leaders once again align themselves with his whims. The carousel of Trumpworld characters spins anew. This time, we think we know what to expect. Supporters cheer even his promises to take revenge on his enemies and dismantle the government. In a matter of weeks, Trump will be returning to the Oval Office with his intentions clear: tariff imports, deport millions, and threaten the press. Put RFK Jr. in charge of vaccines. Chance war with Iran. “Anything can happen,” he told us. …
   6. Over time, we’ve seen the Person of the Year franchise shift: from Man of the Year to its current designation; from the period between the world wars, defined by leaders like Mohandas Gandhi and Wallis ­Simpson, to the first quarter of the 21st century, an era marked by the tremendous changes ushered in by a technological revolution. ­Although the ­American presidency has evolved across these eras, its influence has not diminished. Today, we are witnessing a resurgence of populism, a widening mistrust in the institutions that defined the last century, and an eroding faith that liberal values will lead to better lives for most people. Trump is both agent and beneficiary of it all.
      For marshaling a comeback of historic proportions, for driving a once-in-a-­generation political realignment, for reshaping the American presidency and altering America’s role in the world, Donald Trump is TIME’s 2024 ­Person of the Year.
   7. MIKE: Trump now joins Hitler and Stalin, as TIME Magazine’s “Person of the Year.
   8. MIKE: TIME has spent the better part of 100 years annually explaining why they pick some of these awful people as Man/Person of the Year. Maybe instead, they should just change the title (“Newsmaker of the Year”, which would be clearer), or just pick good people for good reasons.
6. High-tech radar used in Ukraine-Russia war to be deployed to crack Northeast drone mystery; By Bill Hutchinson | ABCNEWS.GO.COM | December 17, 2024, 4:00 PM. TAGS: Drones, New Jersey, Ukraine Drone-Hunting Technology,
   1. … State-of-the-art drone-hunting technology being used on the battlefield in Ukraine could soon be deployed to crack the mystery behind a spate of unmanned flying objects purportedly spotted in the skies over New Jersey, New York and other Northeast cities, experts said. …
   2. Drone sightings have also been reported in Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Maryland and Ohio. The Boston Police Department said Sunday that two men were arrested Saturday night after they allegedly flew a drone “dangerously close to Logan International Airport.”
   3. … Kris Brost, general director of Robin Radar USA Inc., whose parent company is in the Netherlands, told ABC News that the development of his firm’s Iris drone detection radar system evolved from its innovation in creating radar to detect flocks of birds near airports to prevent them from striking aircraft.
   4. Since 2014, the company has pivoted to developing drone-detecting technology to not only locate drones – officially designated unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) – but to “classify small moving objects, whether they be drones, rotary, fixed-wing or if you just want to filter them out because you don’t want to see birds or large crickets,” Brost said.
   5. Brost said the Robin radar can [distinguish] drones from manned-operated aircraft, track their flying patterns in real time, and beam data back to a laptop computer with a 360-degree, 3D view of the airspace in which the object is flying. …
   6. Brost said the radar system has a range of about 3.1 miles and can detect objects flying at an altitude of two to three kilometers, roughly between one and two miles.
   7. When combined with other technologies, Brost said the radar system can help investigators obtain a drone’s remote identification. Brost warned, however, that operators are able to modify their drones in order to avoid detection, including removing the remote ID broadcast module. …
   8. Brost said another advantage of the company’s Robin system is that it’s lightweight and mobile: “it can be installed on a police cruiser or whatever you need to and be used on the move.”
   9. One thing his company’s radar system can’t do, however, is determine whether a drone has been weaponized. …
   10. Brost said that at the request of New Jersey authorities, his company sent a team to the state on Friday to assess how to best deploy the Robin radar in the investigation of the numerous alleged nighttime drone sightings.
   11. Asked if DHS has contacted his company, Brost could only say he is working with the federal government.
   12. The FBI and DHS have deployed infrared cameras and drone detection technology to ensure that the purported drones flying over the New Jersey and New York area aren’t harmful, according to a law enforcement source. Dozens of agencies have been out daily to find answers and track down any operators acting “illegally or with nefarious intent,” the FBI said recently.
   13. The agencies are also looking at social media and other photos to determine what exactly is in the photos. Most of the photos and video depict manned aircraft, according to a law enforcement source.
   14. … The Robin Radar System has been used in the Ukraine-Russia war to aid Ukrainian military forces in locating incoming Russian weaponized drones, Brost told ABC News.
   15. [Brost said,] “The war in the Ukraine was really a turning point for our company based on the compelling needs they have, and certainly some of the data that we’ve been able to collect and implement based on that environment has been [spectacular]. …”
   16. While on the battlefield, Ukrainian forces have shot the Russian drones out of the sky, Brost said.
   17. [But,] “Here in the states, law enforcement’s hands are very tied because they can’t use anything to take a drone out of the sky even if they find it’s nefarious or think it’s nefarious.” …
   18. The New Jersey State Police and FBI field office in Newark issued an advisory Monday asking the public not to take matters into their own hands. In a statement, authorities warned of “an increase in pilots of manned aircraft being hit in the eyes with lasers because people on the ground think they see an Unmanned Aircraft Systems. There is also a concern with people possibly firing weapons at what they believe to be a UAS but could be a manned aircraft.”
   19. … The FBI has received more than 5,000 tips in the last few weeks about drone sightings in New Jersey and other states …Those tips have resulted in about 100 leads but, so far, the investigation has not found “anything anomalous,” nor do the drone sightings present a national security or public safety risk, [said] federal officials.
   20. An assessment of the purported drone sightings … found that they reflect combined sightings of lawful commercial drones, hobbyist drones, and law enforcement drones, as well as manned fixed-wing aircraft, helicopters, and stars mistakenly reported as drones. …
   21. MIKE: I just read a government official saying that many of these sightings may be due to a recent FAA rule change allowing drone flights at night.
   22. MIKE: Another speculation I read several days ago is that some may be test flights of a new large (SUV-sized) drone designed for military use by a company that is based in New Jersey. These may be the ones over military bases. As that post pointed out, these may not be super-secret, but the military may not be wanting to talk about them much.
   23. MIKE: Other sightings are verifiably aircraft or even stars. (Venus and Jupiter are often reported as UFOs. They seem to flicker and move due to atmospheric disturbances. There was an incident may years ago in Australia where a news copter “chased” a “UFO” that turned out to be Jupiter, which can be amazingly bright.)
   24. MIKE: These reasons and perhaps others may be why the feds haven’t seemed too exercised about them. But I think that public pressure has mounted to the point that the Feds will have to come to a plausible, publicly announced conclusion as to what people are seeing. Stay tuned.
7. Europe’s next top diplomat is ready to be undiplomatic; By STUART LAU and EVA HARTOG in Brussels | EU | December 9, 2024 @ 4:00 am CET. TAGS: Kaja Kallas, Estonia, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Emmanuel Macron, European Union (EU),
   1. In June 2021, just five months into her stint as Estonian prime minister, Kaja Kallas walked into the headquarters of the European Council to confront Europe’s most powerful leader.
   2. As media headlines warned of Russian troops massing on the border of Ukraine, then-German Chancellor Angela Merkel wanted to invite Russian President Vladimir Putin to an upcoming summit of European Union leaders in Brussels.
   3. The idea had the backing of French President Emmanuel Macron, and Merkel intended to push it through during a meeting of the European Council in Brussels. 
   4. Kallas wasn’t having it. 
   5. “A summit on what?” she asked in front of all the EU leaders, according to two diplomats. Putin, she stressed, could not be trusted, and should be neither accommodated nor appeased. 
   6. “What is it for?” repeated Kallas, who could count on the support of several other Eastern European countries. 
   7. Merkel, unable to pull off her plan without at least the grudging consent of her fellow leaders, backed down. 
   8. As the German chancellor left the room, Macron was in disbelief that a new leader from a small EU country had dared humiliate Merkel, at that time the bloc’s main power player. 
   9. According to one diplomat, the French president turned to Kallas and, hinting she might face backlash, asked: “Will you still be prime minister tomorrow?”
   10. Three years later, it’s Merkel who has had to make way and Kallas who’s gotten a promotion. On Dec. 1, Kallas became the EU’s high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, making her the bloc’s top diplomat.
   11. Nominated in June by her fellow EU leaders — including Macron — Kallas will have her work cut out for her. Not only is she taking office during a period of historic geopolitical upheaval, but the job itself is one in which her predecessors have struggled to make a mark.
   12. Her portfolio will require her to balance the interests of the EU’s 27 countries, each of which has traditionally enjoyed a veto on matters of foreign affairs. With a reputation as one of Europe’s fiercest [anti-]Russia hawks, Kallas — who declined to be interviewed for this article — will have to overcome the widespread preconception that she’ll be a single-issue foreign policy chief. …
   13. The Estonian firebrand has one important advantage, however: Expectations are low. Very low. The outgoing officeholder, Josep Borrell, is an aging Spanish socialist who spent most of his tenure at odds with his boss, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.  …
   14. Top aides to 10 EU foreign ministers, current and past, who spoke to POLITICO anonymously, were hopeful regarding Kallas’ appointment, noting the impact she had had on the world stage as prime minister of Estonia, a country of 1.4 million people sandwiched between Russia and the Baltic Sea.
   15. Under Borrell, EU diplomats complained that meetings of the EU’s 27 foreign ministers were long, discursive or scripted. Kallas, according to a senior official, is expected to ask the ministers to come to the meetings with fresh ideas, to encourage spontaneous conversation and to zero in on strategic issues.
   16. “Kallas will be a breath of fresh air,” a foreign minister from a Western European country said.
   17. … “Breathe the air of freedom,” Kallas’ father told her in 1988. The family had been allowed to leave Estonia to holiday in East Berlin; from where they stood at the Brandenburg Gate — marking the boundary of Soviet-occupied Europe — they could see West Berlin.
   18. Patriotism and political defiance run in Kallas’ blood. Her great-grandfather, Eduard Alver, was the commander of the Estonian Defence League, leading the battle against the Soviet Red Army during the country’s 1918-1920 War of Independence.
   19. After Estonia was occupied by the Soviets during World War II, her grandfather was sent to a prison camp. Her mother, then a six-month-old baby, was deported to Siberia.
   20. Following the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991, Kallas’ father, Siim Kallas, became foreign minister in 1995, then prime minister in 2002 before being named Tallinn’s first-ever European commissioner in 2004 when Estonia joined the EU. He held the post for a decade.
   21. Kallas’ initial instinct was to stay far from politics. …
   22. Kallas specialized in competition law, a field that at the time, like many others, was dominated by men. …
   23. Despite her success as a lawyer, it was clear to those who knew her that Kallas wanted something else. … . Kallas was elected first to the Estonian parliament in 2011 and then to the European Parliament in 2014. …
   24. … [I]dealism, on top of her staunch dedication to the values of democracy and openness, makes her the antithesis of the realist, strongman politics embodied by the United States’ next president, Donald Trump. But it’s another man, Putin, who is her main political foil and, paradoxically, her biggest political asset.
   25. As Western European leaders fretted about provoking the Russian president by supporting Ukraine in the wake of his 2022 full-scale invasion, Kallas was relentless in calling them to task and coming as close as she could to explicitly saying: “I told you so.”
   26. [Kallas told the European Parliament in 2022, two weeks after Russian troops invaded Ukraine,] “Putin will come to test us, and yes, we will have to resist. We [in Estonia] also have some experience with Russia — which we have been trying to share with the European Union since we joined.”
   27. In a widely circulated video filmed in 2022 at the Munich Security Conference, she broke down — in less than a minute — the Kremlin’s negotiating tactics:  “First, demand the maximum … Second, present ultimatums. And third, do not give one inch in negotiations, because there will always be people in the West who will offer you something.”
   28. Under Kallas, Estonia pushed the EU to set quantifiable targets in its support for Kyiv. That included advocating an EU target to send Ukraine 1 million rounds of ammunition, and earmarking frozen Russian assets for its reconstruction. Estonia has also been spending above 3 percent of GDP on defense since the war started — well over NATO’s goal of 2 percent — and earmarking 0.25 percent of GDP solely for the purposes of aiding Kyiv.
   29. [Kallas wrote in a letter to members of the European Parliament before her nomination hearing,] “I wanted Estonia to lead by example. Russia’s imperialistic dream never died.”
   30. The Kremlin has taken notice. In April 2023, it put Kallas on its wanted list, formally for her government’s decision to take down Soviet-era war monuments. It was the first time an EU leader was included on the blacklist, which also named Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. 
   31. [An unfazed Kallas wrote on X,] “This is yet more proof that I am doing the right thing. The Kremlin now hopes this move will help to silence me and others — but it won’t.”
   32. … The question hanging over Kallas is to what extent she’ll be able to continue to make waves in her new role. 
   33. Estonia may be a small country, but when she was head of a sovereign state, she was free to speak her mind. As high representative, she’ll run the European External Action Service, the bloc’s diplomatic wing, a role which in practice comes with more limitations than actual power.
   34. Technically, the EU’s high representative for foreign affairs isn’t even in charge of foreign policy. To formulate an official EU stance, she’ll have to get every national government to sign off, including leaders who have opposing views on Putin, such as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. …
   35. As a result, EU statements tend to be watered down to the point of weakness if not irrelevance, as noted by a popular account on X, @ISEUConcerned, which lists every time the high representative or other foreign policy officials respond to a faraway tragedy with “concern.” …
   36. A standoff at a NATO summit in July suggests Kallas, diplomat or no, will not be mincing her words when she faces Russia’s sympathizers. 
   37. As the military alliance gathered in Washington, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán was already in the doghouse for traveling to Moscow earlier that month. Adding fuel to the fire, he told the assembled leaders, which included Zelenskyy, that Ukraine should never be admitted to the alliance. 
   38. It was, in the words of someone in the room, a “very rude” moment.
   39. Kallas was next to take the floor. [A diplomat recalled,] “She dropped the prepared speech. She answered Orbán directly, saying how wrong he was and that history and facts show that NATO’s aim is to avoid wars, and not to provoke [conflict].” 
   40. After Kallas, several other leaders followed her example by casting aside the notes prepared by their staff and speaking out against Orbán. 
   41. [Said Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur, who worked alongside Kallas for most of her premiership,] “She will be ready, and she has all the skills and all the knowledge that you need for that job.”
   42. He pointed out that Kallas is the first high representative to have been a prime minister [saying]: “So, by default, [she’s] already brought a view on things — [she’s] been sitting around all the big tables.”
   43. In her first week in office, Kallas has already struck a more hawkish tone than her predecessor, hinting that she could seek to put sanctions on members of the Moscow-friendly ruling party in Georgia if they were to crack down on [demonstrators] protesting what they say was a rigged election.
   44. She also adopted a shift in tone on the conflict in Ukraine, traveling to Kyiv on her first trip as high representative and writing on social media that “the European Union wants Ukraine to win this war.”
   45. … For Kallas, the job appears to be coming at exactly the right time: just as her popularity at home has begun to wane.
   46. The Estonian economy has just emerged from two years of recession, and is among the worst-performing in Europe. Her Estonian Reform Party, comfortably in the lead a year ago, has since been overtaken by the main opposition party. …
   47. Abroad, Kallas remains something of a media darling, charming many a reporter with her combination of unvarnished straight talk and high-brow love of literature ….  
   48. But how long will her international honeymoon last, as Putin continues to test Europe’s stamina and solidarity?
   49. EU countries are also widely split on other key geostrategic issues — it’s not just Orbán’s Hungary throwing a spanner in the works of a united front. In the latest spat with China over electric vehicles, it was Germany that defended Beijing against France and Italy.
   50. On the Middle East, Spain, Ireland and Slovenia have broken ranks with the rest of the EU to recognize Palestinian statehood, while Germany, Finland and the Czech Republic, among others, still trade arms with Israel.
   51. Some have already criticized Kallas for immediately deciding to replace Stefano Sannino, the civil servant at the head of the [European External Action Service (EEAS)], rather than relying on the Italian veteran as she learned the ropes.
   52. [Said one EU diplomat of Sannino’s dismissal,] “Several member states were quite irritated about this decision. …”
   53. Then there’s the biggest elephant in the room: Donald Trump. Eurocrats have vivid memories about how the first Trump administration killed off a proposed trade deal. This time around the fear concerns Ukraine, as Trump seems to be looking to score with a quick peace deal (presumably on terms favorable to Russia).
   54. Offering a sneak peek at how she will deal with the next American administration, Kallas said during her hearing that “if the United States is worried about China, they should first be worried about Russia.” Adding later: “If we look to history, isolationism has never worked well for America.”
   55. “The world is on fire,” she said during the same hearing. “So we have to stick together.”
   56. The time may come when Kallas will be wishing for the good old days, when all she had to do was stare down the leaders of Germany and France. 
   57. MIKE: One thing to be said about Estonia and the other Eastern European countries that used to be controlled by the USSR: They understand exactly what is at risk if Russia is not successfully confronted and defeated in Ukraine.
   58. MIKE: I’ve mentioned before how amazing it is to me that the Western Europeans still seem not to have learned their lessons from the 1938 Munich Agreement that France and Britain signed with Germany and Italy that required Czechoslovakia to surrender the Sudetenland to Germany in the vain hope of satisfying Hitler’s territorial demands. A few months later, Hitler simply took over the rest of Czechoslovakia, effectively breaking the agreement. A year later, all of Europe and North Africa were engulfed in war.
   59. MIKE: Why would anyone expect any agreement that is arranged with Putin to fare any better than the West’s treaty at Munich — with or without Ukraine’s consent, unless it’s successfully strongarmed by Trump.
   60. MIKE: It should be remembered that Stalin’s USSR never returned territory it took as a result of allying with Hitler’s Germany and then defeating it. It kept the part of Poland it invaded in 1939 and incorporated it into western Ukraine.
   61. MIKE: It kept most of eastern Germany, giving the largest chunk to what is now western Poland in compensation for the eastern part of Poland that Russia kept, and Stalin retained the formerly Prussian territory of what is now Kaliningrad. Russia even still retains control of some Japanese islands that prevented Russia and Japan from concluding a treaty formally ending WW2 until 2022. The islands are still disputed territory.
   62. MIKE: Russia also still holds parts of eastern Finland that it took by force in the so-called “Winter War”. It kept hold of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, which had been independent countries after WW1, and only regained their independence in 1991 after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
   63. MIKE: There is an old saying about how Russia negotiates: “What’s ours is ours. What’s yours is negotiable.” The Eastern Europeans know this only too well.
   64. MIKE: Putin’s Russia must not be allowed to keep in inch of Ukraine taken by force. Crimea must also be returned to Ukraine. Anything else will echo the failed Munich agreement that was simply precursor to WW2.
   65. REFERENCE VIDEO: We shouldn’t overestimate Russia’s power, EU top diplomat Kallas says | Kyiv Independent 0:10 / 6:29
   66. REFERENCE VIDEO: Ukraine advocate Kaja Kallas set to become EU’s top diplomat | DW News 0:00 / 4:52
8. Israel has no more excuses for entering Syria, rebel leader Julani says in first major TV interview; By YUVAL BARNEA | JPOST.COM (JERUSALEM POST) | DECEMBER 14, 2024 17:44/Updated: DECEMBER 14, 2024 19:17. TAGS: Israel, Iran, Syria, Middle East, Abu Mohammed al-Julani, HTS,
   1. Syrian rebel leader and head of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) Ahmad al-Sharaa [also known by his nom de guerre, “Abu Mohammad al-Julani”] addressed Syria’s future, focusing on international relations, for the first time on Saturday in an interview with opposition TV channel Syria.tv.
   2. Julani said, “Israel’s excuses for entering Syria no longer exist. After the Iranians’ departure, there are no more justifications for any foreign intervention in Syria.”
   3. “The exhausted Syrian situation after years of war and conflicts does not allow for entering into any new conflicts.”
   4. He said his priority was reconstruction and stability and not dragging Syria into conflicts that would lead to further destruction.
   5. Julani called on the international community to intervene and take responsibility for preventing escalation and respecting Syrian sovereignty. He stressed that diplomatic solutions are the only way to ensure security and stability, away from any ill-considered military adventures.
   6. He admonished the Iranian regime for turning the country into an attack platform, which brought significant danger to the Syrian people.
   7. But he stressed that there would be no future enmity, “We were able to end the Iranian presence in Syria, but we do not hold enmity towards the Iranian people. Our problem was with the policies that harmed our country.”
   8. Despite dodging any [provocative questions] about Russia, Julani said that the revolution was an “opportunity to re-evaluate the [Russian] relationship with Syria in a way that serves common interests.”
   9. Although he emphasized that the Russian air force had largely been responsible for targeting Syrian civilians during the civil war.
   10. … Julani cautioned Syria that reform and change were coming, “The Syrian revolution has triumphed, but Syria should not be led with the mentality of a revolution. There is a need for law and institutions. There is a need to transfer the mentality from the revolution to the state. The next stage is the stage of construction and stability.”
   11. … [Julani] described how the Assad regime had plundered Syria into poverty, [saying,]”There is an abundance of food, and Assad was systematically depriving the Syrians of it. There is a real tragedy, and we have plans to address these issues until we finish collecting the data.”
   12. He accused the Assad dynasty of building a feudal tax farm designed to extract wealth from its subjects instead of supporting them. …
   13. As part of Julani’s plans to “lead Syria with a statesmen’s mentality,” he wants to halt the production and trafficking of captagon, a drug that was massively produced under the Assad regime, as a way of getting around sanctions [and] “which had led to accusations of Syria becoming a narco-state.”
   14. He also reemphasized his previous commitment to protecting the minority groups of Syria; in particular, he mentioned the Christian and Druze communities who fought against Assad.
   15. Julani differentiated between the Kurdish community and the PKK, a Kurdish terrorist organization, signaling the realignment of the mostly Kurdish SDF with the rest of the Syrian opposition.
   16. Julani confirmed that the Syrian Defense Ministry would be dissolving all armed factions and that all weapons would be under the authority of the Syrian state.
   17. MIKE: All of this sounds very encouraging, but the proof will be in the doing. There are also some questions about whether other insurgent groups will see this new government as an opportunity to establish political resolutions to their objectives or grievances, or if some of these armed groups decide to fight against this new post-Assad order.
9. Jordan seeks to ensure regional security and stability, including in Syria, including by involving the international community in these prospects.; By SETH J. FRANTZMAN | JPOST.COM [Jerusalem Post] |11DECEMBER 14, 2024 15:45/Updated: DECEMBER 15, 2024 @ 16:42. TAGS: Bashar Assad, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Syria, Middle East, Syrian rebels, HTS,
   1. King Abdullah II of Jordan is concerned about developments in southern Syria. He knows very well the issues involved there, because Jordan hosted many Syrian refugees after the Syrian civil war broke out in 2011.
   2. In addition, Iranian-backed gangs in Syria have been involved in the smuggling of Captagon (fenethylline) and other drugs that threaten Jordan. Southern Syrian rebel groups were also closely connected to Amman and [had] Western backing via Jordan from 2014-2018.
   3. The king of Jordan “emphasized on Friday that guaranteeing Syria’s security strengthens the region’s overall stability and urged coordinated international efforts to achieve this goal,” Anadolu Agency, a state-run news agency in Turkey, reported.
   4. Abdullah made the comments during a call with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis. They discussed “regional updates, particularly the situation in Syria,” according to a Jordanian Royal Court statement.
   5. Jordan wanted to ensure security and stability in Syria, and it seeks to “reinforce security and stability across the region,” the statement said, adding that it hopes the international community will be involved.
   6. Jordan has close ties with Western militaries, including the US and UK. However, US forces in Jordan have come under attack from Iranian-backed militias in Iraq.
   7. In January, Kataib Hezbollah killed three Americans at a site called Tower 22 in eastern Jordan. The US also has backed a Syrian rebel group at Tanf in Syria, near the Jordanian border. …
   8. The southern Syrian rebel groups are important to Jordan. They rolled into Damascus on December 8. Ahmed Audeh and other southern Syrian rebel commanders are well known to Amman. They had reconciled with the regime in 2018 and have now helped to overthrow Assad.
   9. Their future remains uncertain. In 2018, Jordan helped medical volunteers from southern Jordan flee via Jordan to northern Syria. The volunteers initially went via Israel and then via Jordan, showing the shared concerns Jordan and Israel have in this matter.
   10. Jordan is also laser focused on the Israel-Hamas War and the West Bank. “The first step to de-escalating tensions in the region is an immediate halt to Israel’s war on Gaza,” Abdullah told Mitsotakis. He also discussed the ceasefire in Lebanon.
   11. Meanwhile, the US and Iraq have discussed Syria as well. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken was in Baghdad on Friday and met with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani.
   12. [Blinken said in part,[ “We spent time talking about … the situation in Syria and the conviction of so many countries in the region and beyond that as Syria transitions from the Assad dictatorship to … a democracy, it does so in a way that … protects all of the minorities in Syria, that produces an inclusive, nonsectarian government, and does not in any way become a platform for terrorism.”
   13. Iraq shares a long border with Syria. Part of the border is held by the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Another part of the border was controlled by the Assad regime up until December 8.
   14. When the regime collapsed, the SDF briefly took control of Albukamal on the Syrian side of the border. Now, it appears that Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)-backed forces will control that part of the border.
   15. HTS is the main group that overthrew Assad. However, US-backed forces known as the Syrian Free Army, who operate from Tanf, may also have a role to play in this area.
   16. There are many factors in flux, and southern Syria is very important in this regard. This area was a transit point for Iranian weapons going to Hezbollah via Albukamal. It was also a transit point for insurgents entering Iraq from 2004 to 2011.
   17. Therefore, the corridor along the middle Euphrates River valley must be stabilized. The SDF, HTS, the US, Iraqis, and Jordanians all have a possible role to play.
   18. MIKE: If Jordan, Israel, Iraq, and Turkey can find sufficient common cause to work together in stabilizing and rebuilding Syria, as well as incorporating themselves into a mutually beneficial bloc for purposes of economic trade and political stabilization, that would be a best-case scenario.
   19. MIKE: Is that likely? Certainly not any time soon. But stranger things have happened on historical timelines.
10. Syria Refused to Accept Final Borders. It’s Paying For That Now.; by Seth Mandel | COMMENTARY.ORG | December 13, 2024. TAGS: Syria, Israel, Territorial Boundaries, UN Partition Plan, Palestine Border, 1949 Armistice Agreement,
    1. The question What is Syria? has suddenly become relevant again. But the only reason it’s a question at all is because Syrian leaders made a mistake picking fights with Israel decades ago and want the world to keep bailing it out of the consequences of its own actions.
    2. This became clear with some unintentionally humorous reporting earlier this week on the post-Assad developments in Syria. Anti-Israel activists are getting impatient with Syria’s new Islamist leaders because those leaders don’t want to go to war with Israel.
    3. [One progressive hub posted,] “HTS spokesman Obeida Arnaout is asked by Channel 4 News about Israel’s strikes on over 300 sites in Syria (latest update: 480 strikes). He refused to denounce Israel’s massive airstrikes and ground incursions. When pressed, he offered vague, general comments.”
    4. The frustration is palpable. And also hilarious.
    5. The narrative in parts of the press that Israel is “invading” Syria because it has been taking out loose chemical weapons stocks and securing its buffer zone, is more an expression of emotional derangement than analysis, but egging on Syria’s rebels to go to war with Israel is a bit much even for this crowd.
    6. There is a serious point here, however. Complaints about violations of Syrian sovereignty are reminders that the fluid borders are Syria’s own doing, by design. Countries that actually signed peace and recognition agreements with Israel don’t have this problem, because those countries were willing to delineate permanent borders with the Jewish state. No one is guiltier of obstructing that process than Syria.
    7. Upon the passing of the UN partition plan in 1947 and the subsequent assurances by the British that they would fulfill plans to end the UK’s mandate for Palestine and allow for the division of the land into two states, one Arab and one Jewish, Syria began agitating for war and whipping up opposition to recognizing Israel among the Arab states. The Syrian government expressly warned the U.S. that should partition pass, there would be blood. It was not an idle threat.
    8. In early 1948, U.S. diplomatic correspondence outlined Syria’s orchestration of a campaign of disregarding the sovereignty of Palestine while it was still held by the British: “Reports from the U.S. Mission at Damascus indicate that Syria is the center of recruitment and training of the so-called ‘irregulars’, which are intended for infiltration over the Palestine border and subsequent guerilla work in Palestine. There is evidence that such forces have already proceeded across the border to a considerable extent.”
    9. The memo went on to explain in more detail: By New Year’s 1948, Syrian commanders had recruited thousands of irregular soldiers — more, in fact, than they had weapons for. Syria also became “the training center for recruits from Palestine, Egypt and Iraq.”
    10. Beginning less than a month after the partition vote, these militiamen began infiltrating Palestine with what appeared to be Syrian soldiers directing or covering them.
    11. A Syrian defense official described one attack on a village “as a ‘screen,’ under cover of which there is good reason to believe that approximately 600 Syrian-trained, -equipped, and -transported ‘regular irregulars’ moved across the border into Palestine.”
    12. The U.S. charge d’affaires in Damascus dryly suggested that the government “might consider cautioning the Syrian Government that its participation in recruiting, arming, training, financing and transporting the ‘irregulars’ to the frontier in Syrian army trucks is contrary to the word and spirit of the U.N. charter and the [General Assembly] U.N. resolution on partition.”
    13. Syria got its war, and failed to defeat the Jewish state. In 1949, Israel and Syria signed an armistice agreement that “emphasized that the following arrangements for the Armistice Demarcation Line between the Israeli and Syrian armed forces and for the Demilitarized Zone are not to be interpreted as having any relation whatsoever to ultimate territorial arrangements affecting the two Parties to this Agreement.”
    14. Syria then spent the next two decades trying to claw land away from Israel and redirecting water supplies away from the Jews, while shelling Israeli civilians from Syrian-held positions. In 1967, Syria tried again and failed again: This time Israel was able to take the high ground of the Golan. After the war, the Arab states announced they would not negotiate with Israel over the return of land that changed hands during the war.
    15. Now, however, those mourning the end of the Assad dictatorship would like to pretend that Syria acknowledges its own truce lines as permanent borders. If only the Syrians had done so the many, many, many times it had been offered!
    16. Meanwhile, HTS — the leaders of the rebel alliance that ousted Bashar al-Assad — have thus far refrained from making the same complaint. They don’t seem to want war with Israel, and they also know that they exist as a rebel front … partially because those weapons Israel took out were used by Assad primarily on them and other Syrian civilians.
    17. It would be ironic indeed if Syria’s new Islamist rulers were to finally sign a pact with Israel, recognizing the Jewish state and setting permanent borders. Either way, it would be nice if the world would stop demanding Israel pay for Syria’s crimes.
    18. MIKE: This is an interesting interpretation and observation of the region’s history since 1947, and brings up the price of not having peace treaties to end wars.
    19. MIKE: I’m not an expert in the detailed histories of this region, but if these facts are substantially correct, any future negotiations between Israel and a future Syrian government could be very interesting.
11. PA crackdown adds to Hamas woes that are bringing hostage deal closer – analysis; By HERB KEINON | JPOST.COM | DECEMBER 17, 2024 20:03/Updated: DECEMBER 17, 2024 21:37. TAGS: Fatah, Hamas, Palestinian Authority, Palestine, Gaza,
    1. Following the rebels’ lightning takeover of Syria, here’s another entirely unexpected development: the Palestinian Authority security forces are trying to reassert control in parts of the West Bank under its jurisdiction.
    2. For the last eight days, PA security forces have battled Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad fighters in Jenin, determined to regain control over the refugee camp that had fallen under the sway of terrorists unaffiliated with the PA.
    3. These terrorists, aligned with Iran’s “axis of evil,” were a cornerstone of the Islamic Republic’s strategy to ignite an explosion in Judea and Samaria.
    4. To fuel this upheaval, Iran has been smuggling sophisticated weapons and explosives into the area. With the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, … this has just become that much more difficult.
    5. While an AP report on Monday said, “it was not immediately clear why the Palestinian Authority decided to launch the crackdown now,” the reason seems obvious: to prove that they can take control of territory in the hope and expectation that they will ultimately regain control of Gaza.
    6. Hamas ousted Fatah and the PA in a bloody coup in 2007. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is opposed to letting the PA govern Gaza on the proverbial “day after,” noting that it has proven unable to control the territories already under its control.
    7. Nevertheless, the PA’s sudden effort to prove its mettle has now added to Hamas’s growing list of problems. The pressure on Hamas has become so severe that the group issued a fiery statement Tuesday morning, denouncing the PA’s actions as a “full-scale crime” and calling for “public mobilization to break the siege and support the resistance fighters.” It is this growing list of problems that has forced Hamas to finally show some flexibility in its demands, bringing it closer than ever – according to numerous reports – to reaching a hostage deal with Israel.
    8. The PA’s clampdown on “resistance fighters” in Jenin and Tulkarm is only one piece of the puzzle. Inside Gaza, dissatisfaction with Hamas’s dead-end strategy is growing, as underscored by a Washington Post headline from Monday: “Faced with mounting public anger, a weakened Hamas starts to compromise.”
    9. [The story says in part,] “With its military power depleted and its political influence on the wane, Hamas is under growing public pressure to help bring the war in Gaza to an end.”
    10. That public pressure, as well as losing its grip in Jenin, are just a few of the many factors behind Hamas dropping its demands that a complete halt to the war and full withdrawal of the IDF from Gaza are preconditions to a deal.
    11. … Over the last three months, regional and international dynamics have shifted dramatically, leaving Hamas in its weakest position since the war began.
    12. First, the IDF is continuing to operate in Gaza, further degrading the terrorist organization’s military capabilities.
    13. Second – and this has to do with international dynamics – the election of Donald Trump as US president has infused new energy into Washington’s push for a deal. The transition between US administrations has created a unique urgency, with outgoing President Joe Biden eager to conclude a deal after investing a lot of time and energy into it, and with Trump wanting to enter office without this issue hanging over his administration.
    14. Trump has made it clear that failure to reach a deal by his January 20 inauguration will have consequences, warning, “There will be hell to pay.”
    15. While it is questionable how much those threats move Hamas leaders in Gaza, they seem to have resonated loudly with Hamas’s state sponsors, particularly Qatar.
    16. Keen to get on Trump’s good side, Qatar is reportedly pressuring Hamas in ways it hadn’t before. This pressure is being felt by Hamas leaders living abroad – in Qatar and Turkey – who, as a result, are reportedly keener on reaching a deal and showing flexibility than Hamas leaders inside Gaza, who are less impacted by this pressure.
    17. The third game-changing factor is the neutralization of Hezbollah in Lebanon. For nearly a year, Hezbollah bombarded Israel with rockets and missiles in solidarity with Hamas. Its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, explicitly linked the two fronts, declaring that there would be no quiet in the North until there was a ceasefire in Gaza.
    18. But Nasrallah is gone, and Hezbollah has been reduced to a shadow of its former self. Hamas leaders, both those in Gaza and those abroad, now know that salvation from the North is no longer an option – now or in the foreseeable future.
    19. Any hopes Hamas may have had that Iran would quickly be able to rebuild Hezbollah were dashed with the rebel takeover of Syria. Simply put, no one is coming to Hamas’s rescue.
    20. These developments have culminated in considerable motion over the last few days regarding a deal. And this time – because of the significant regional changes and a new president poised to take charge in Washington – that motion might actually lead to real movement and tangible results.
    21. MIKE: There is a line from Hemingway’s, “The Sun Also Rises”: “Bankruptcy happens gradually, then suddenly.”
    22. MIKE: Life can be a lot like that, and so can geopolitics. What we are seeing in the Middle East specifically and the world generally is exactly that.
    23. MIKE: When Hamas tossed the dice with a massive attack on Israel, and when Hezbollah joined in on the aftermath of that attack, none of the parties involved — not Israel nor Hamas nor Hezbollah, nor any of the other direct or indirect players in this bloody game — had any idea how things would turn out.
    24. MIKE: As in the case of most wars, the initiator thought they knew the ultimate outcome, but there’s another old saying: No battle plan survives contact with the enemy. I think it’s safe to say that no one could have predicted how things would be looking in that region today because in fact, no one predicted it.
    25. MIKE: This should be a lesson to all governments, militaries, paramilitaries, and insurgents everywhere in the world, but it won’t be. It’s a lesson almost no one learns because everyone thinks they’re too smart for it to apply.
    26. MIKE: Aphorisms become aphorisms because they so often apply to actual outcomes. And so we end with one last aphorism from Mark Twain: “History Doesn’t Repeat Itself, but It Often Rhymes.”

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