Now in our 11th year on KPFT!

Going forward, new shows will post for Thursday at 6PM (CT) broadcast and re-run on Sundays at 1PM and Wednesdays at 11AM.

AUDIO:

POSSIBLE TOPICS:

1. Holiday help in Houston: Ways to donate food and get meal assistance this month;
2. Pearland approves first of 2 votes to annex nearly 300 acres;
3. The Real Reason Everything’s Getting More Expensive;
4. Sweeping Syrian rebel advance resurrects U.S. fears of Islamist takeover;
5. Trump says U.S. should stay out of Syria conflict as Assad regime teeters;
6. ‘Delight in Syria’: what the papers say about the end of the Assad regime;
7. Israel ‘Conquers’ Syria’s Highest Mountain; Ex-IAF Pilot Explains The Significance Of Mount Hermon;
8. Kyiv reveals total Ukraine casualties in Putin’s war for first time;
9. Zelensky meets with Trump in Paris as he tries to build support for Ukraine;

Welcome to Thinkwing Radio with Mike Honig where we discuss local, state, national, and international stories. 

Thinkwing Radio with Mike Honig (@ThinkwingRadio) is now on Wednesdays at 11AM (CT) or Thursdays at 6PM on KPFT 90.1 FM-HD2, Houston’s Community Media. You can also hear the show:

1. Live online at KPFT.org (from anywhere in the world!)
2. Podcast on your phone’s Podcast App
3. Visiting Archive.KPFT.ORG

Except for timely election info, the extensive list of voting resources will now be at the end.

Welcome to Thinkwing Radio with Mike Honig on KPFT Houston at 90.1-HD2, Galveston 89.5-HD2, and Huntsville at 91.9-HD2. KPFT is Houston’s Community Media. On this show, we discuss local, state, national, and international stories that may have slipped under your radar.

As much as possible, I’m still trying to do a post-election show with as little direct discussion of Trump as possible on the premise that there’s plenty of that elsewhere. We’ll see how long that can last.

1. Holiday help in Houston: Ways to donate food and get meal assistance this month; By Tanya Babbar, Staff Writer | HOUSTONCHRONICLE.COM | Dec 7, 2024. TAGS: Food Stamps, Community, Health And Human Services, Holiday Meals,
   1. Whether you’re a Houstonian eager to give back this holiday season or looking for some extra support, the city has a handful of ways to participate in community goodwill this month.
   2. While it’s not too late to apply for food stamps, the application process in Texas can take a long time. As of Jan. 26 this year, the average time to process a SNAP application was 38 days as Health and Human Services is inundated with a backlog of over 225,000 applicants.
   3. With Christmas just a few weeks away, here are some options open for food drives and free meals.
   4. Christmas Super Feast at City Wide Club — The City Wide Club is hosting a holiday meal through the Christmas Super Feast on Tuesday, Dec. 24, at the George R. Brown Convention Center. There are options to “Grab ‘n’ Go” or “Sit ‘n’ Sup,” meaning participants can either drive up to Chartres at Walker and be handed food items by volunteers or participants can sit and dine at the exhibition hall. The event has been heralded as the nation’s largest feeding and turkey distribution, according to the City Wide Club. Donation and volunteer information is available on City Wide Club’s website. 
   5. Houston Police Department — HPD will host its 39th annual Comida/Food Drive on Dec. 21 from 8 a.m to 12 p.m at the department’s headquarters at 1200 Travis. 
   6. The police department has partnered with Kroger since 2020 to provide around 400 meals, including Kroger-brand frozen turkey (10-14lbs), stuffing, green beans, corn, gravy, cranberry, mashed potatoes, and mac & cheese to Houston families in need. In anticipation of the drive, HPD officers identify families that could benefit and encourage them to register online to grab a holiday meal. 
   7. To register for a holiday meal, applicants can fill out this form, and then present a confirmation number on the day of the food drive to receive their meal.
   8. Wesley Community Center — The food pantry at Wesley Community Center, located at 1235 Lorraine, is open for distribution every Wednesday and Friday from 9 a.m to noon. Participants can get food through drive-up and walk-up services. Every third and fourth Saturday of the month, the pantry also hosts community food fairs.
   9. West Houston Assistance Ministries — WHAM offers walkup, drive-through and home food delivery programs (though the waiting list is currently closed due to a volunteer shortage). Drive-through distribution happens every Wednesday and Friday from 8 to 10 a.m, or until supplies run out at 1501 Meadowglen Lane. Walk-up distribution happens every Thursday from 8 to 10 a.m. On top of food items, clients can request diapers and personal care items based on need. 
   10. Catholic Charities Archdiocese of Galveston-Houston — The Guadalupe Center Market at 326 S. Jensen gives out food distribution bags on Wednesdays and Thursdays from 9 a.m to 2 p.m. First-time clients will have to bring a photo ID and a bill confirming address. There are also additional locations Galveston and Fort Bend County.
   11. Houston Food Bank — Until Dec. 31, donations to the Houston Food Bank will be tripled to donate three times as many meals to those in need due to a $100,000 donation from Chevron. That means every dollar donated until the end of the year can provide nine meals for families and children facing food insecurity and hunger. [MIKE: I don’t understand how that math works, but that’s what it says.]
   12. Food Not Bombs — Houston’s Food Not Bombs is looking for donations of vegan and vegetarian dishes and food items, as well as cold weather survival supplies, such as blankets, sleeping bags, gloves and hand warmers. Those interested in donating can drop off items on Sundays, Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays at 550 McKinney starting at 7:30 p.m. 
   13. H-E-B — The Texas-based grocer has since 1989 hosted a series of “Feast of Sharing” gatherings that dole out more than 340,000 meals at 34 dinners across the Lone Star State and Mexico. Since its inception, the initiative has served nearly 4 million meals and seen the help of over 375,000 volunteers. Feast of Sharing is part of H-E-B’s Hunger Relief Program, which donated 34 million pounds of food last year.
   14. In Houston this month, the Feast of Sharing will take place on Dec. 14 from 10 a.m to 1 p.m at NRG Stadium’s Yellow Lot at 9051 Main.
   15. Kroger — Kroger in Houston is running their annual Holiday Hunger campaign. When customers donate at their local Kroger store, 100% of their donation will go to local food banks. 
   16. MIKE: These are all worthy causes, whether you need their assistance, or want to donate or volunteer. You can go to my blog at ThinkwingRadio[dot]com to go to the original article, or to click on links embedded in article.
   17. MIKE: If you are in need of these meal services, please look into them. If you know someone who might be in need but may not be aware, please let them know.
2. Pearland approves first of 2 votes to annex nearly 300 acres; By James T. Norman | COMMUNITYIMPACT.COM | :31 PM Dec 10, 2024 CST/Updated 3:30 PM Dec 10, 2024 CST. TAGS: Pearland City Council, Brazoria County Municipal Utility District (Brazoria MUD No. 16), Annexation,
   16. Pearland City Council gave the first of two approvals needed to annex roughly 286 acres of land that are part of the Brazoria County Municipal Utility District, or MUD, No. 16.
   17. The first vote, held Dec. 9, was unanimous with little conversation but came after lengthy discussions were held at meetings in November, including at public hearings on Nov. 11 and 18.
   18. If approved Dec. 16, the city will annex the area into its city limits but also assume more than $14.6 million worth of debt from the MUD.
   19. For residents in the MUD, water bills and their tax bills will decrease if annexed, according to city documents.
   20. Other services residents would have include health inspections, planning, permitting and inspections, and in-city member rates at park and recreation facilities, among other services, documents show.
   21. … For water bills, residents in the MUD currently pay a rate that is 50% higher than the city of Pearland’s rate, according to a Nov. 11 presentation. They would pay the city’s rate if annexed, resulting in a decrease.
   22. [Within the acreage to be annexed, there are three subdivisions: Lakeside Estates, and Avalon Terrace 1 and 2.]
   23. Across all taxes and fees, documents show residents with a $400,000 home in the area would save anywhere from around $700 to $1,100 each year until 2038, documents show. For those with a home valued at $850,000, that range is from around $500 to $1,200 per year.
   24. In 2039, those savings start to dip, documents show.
   25. … MUD 16 also has approved actions already in motion that the city would take on, according to the Nov. 11 presentation. Those include: Pipe replacement in Lakeside Estates detention channel …; Asphalt overlay of Lakeside Estate roads …; Desolation of the Avalon Terrace detention pond for $51,184; [and] Relocation of power poles at the Lakeside Estates drainage channel… .
   26. [MIKE: I’m going to digress here for a moment about the word “desolation” in the story. The only definition I can find is what it sounds like it means. I did check to see if there was a term “de-solation” which might mean reducing or eliminating exposure to the sun, but I could find no such term referenced. Continuing with the story …]
   27. There are also deferred projects that city staff recommended officials look to complete, including: Avalon Terrace fence replacement and repairs… ; [and a] Pedestrian recreational trail at the Avalon Terrace detention pond … .
   28. Those projects in total cost $1.2 million.
   29. … [Brazoria] MUD 16 was originally formed in 1987 and contains three subdivisions, which are Avalon Terrace 1 and 2, and Lakeside Estates, according to city documents. There are about 568 properties ranging from $350,000 to $950,000 in value. There are an estimated 1,647 residents in the area.
   30. Within the MUD are the Hickory Slough Sportsplex and the future site retail development Asian Town, according to city documents.
   31. In 2003, the city and the district entered into a strategic partnership agreement that called on the city to develop certain facilities, infrastructure and services. That opened the door for the district and city to enter into a full annexation arrangement.
   32. If annexation passes, the MUD would be dissolved, officials said.
   33. … The second vote on the item will come at City Council’s meeting Dec. 16, documents show. The meeting will be at 6 p.m. at Council Chambers, 3519 Liberty Drive, Pearland.
   34. If the item gets a second and final approval, city staff said the annexation, as well as the services that come with it, will go into effect 10 days after it passes.
   35. MIKE: I found this article interesting mainly for what it doesn’t say. If the city is taking on $14.6 million in district bond debt and lowering the tax and water bills of residents in this area, what is the city’s incentive for doing so? Cities don’t annex areas out of the goodness of their hearts to provide better services at lower cost to residents. In fact, carrying bond debt is often a way that unincorporated areas discourage cities from annexing them.
   36. MIKE: I think the answer is almost glossed over in the story, when it’s mentioned that these water fee and property tax reductions flip starting in 2039.
   37. MIKE: It’s apparent to me that Pearland is playing a long game here. Given the high valuations of the homes in this area to be annexed, the future tax revenue looks very tempting. The commercially zoned land will also generate future tax revenue.
   38. MIKE: Whatever negatives will hit Pearland’s balance sheets until 2038 are going to be more than compensated for after 2039. And with probable commercial development on some of this land, probably sooner.
   39. MIKE: I don’t mention any of this to make the annexation of this area sound nefarious. In Texas, it’s just business as usual. But a thoughtful article might have addressed all these issues rather than publish what sounds more like a Pearland City Council PR release.
3. The Real Reason Everything’s Getting More Expensive; By Ayurella Horn-Muller, Grist | GIZMODO.COM | Published December 8, 2024. TAGS: Inflation, Climate Change,
   1. … Families nationwide are dealing with … financial struggles. Although inflation, defined as the rate at which average prices of goods or services rise over a given period, has slowed considerably since a record peak in 2022, consumer prices today have increased by more than 21 percent since February 2020. Frustration over rising cost of living drove many voters to support president-elect Donald Trump, who campaigned on ending inflation.
   2. Simply put, inflation was instrumental in determining how millions of Americans cast their ballots. Yet climate change, one of the primary levers behind inflationary pressures, wasn’t nearly as front of mind — just 37 percent of voters considered the issue “very important” to their vote. [Consumer Angela Bishop is an example of] how difficult it can be to understand how extreme weather impacts all aspects of the economy. She knows that “climate change has something to do with inflation,” but isn’t sure exactly what.
   3. In 2022, inflation reached 9% in the U.S. — the highest rate in over 40 years. That was part of a global trend. The lingering impacts of the pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, higher fuel and energy prices, and food export bans issued by a number of countries contributed to a cost of living crisis that pushed millions of people worldwide into poverty.
   4. Extreme weather shocks were another leading cause of escalating prices, said Alla Semenova, an economist at St. Mary’s College of Maryland. “Climate change is an important part of the inflationary puzzle,” she said.
   5. In February of 2021, Winter Storm Uri slammed Texas, causing a deadly energy crisis statewide. It also caused widespread shutdowns at oil refineries that account for nearly three-quarters of US chemical production. This disrupted the production and distribution of things necessary for the production of plastics, which Semenova says contributed to ensuing price hikes for packaging, disinfectants, fertilizers and pesticides.
   6. Food prices are another area where the inflationary pressure of warming has become obvious. A drought that engulfed the Mississippi River system in 2022 severely disrupted the transportation of crops used for cattle feed, increasing shipping and commodity costs for livestock producers. Those added costs were likely absorbed by consumers buying meat and dairy products. Grain prices jumped around the same time because drought-induced supply shortages and high energy prices pushed up the costs of fertilizer, transportation, and agricultural production. Not long after, lettuce prices soared amid shortages that followed flooding across California, and the price of orange juice skyrocketed after drought and a hurricane hit major production regions.
   7. Though overall inflation has cooled considerably since then, the economic pressures [that] extreme weather places on food costs persist. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations reported that weather disruptions drove global food prices to an 18-month high in October. In fact, cocoa prices surged almost 40 percent this year because of supply shortages wrought by drier conditions in West and Central Africa, where about three-quarters of the world’s cocoa is cultivated. This can not only impact the price tag of chocolate, but also health supplements, cosmetics, and fragrances, among other goods that rely on cocoa beans.
   8. “What we have seen, especially this year, is this massive price spike,” due to abnormal weather patterns, said Rodrigo Cárcamo-Díaz, a senior economist at U.N. Trade and Development.
   9. But the impact on consumers “goes beyond” the Consumer Price Indicator, which is the most widely used measure of inflation, said Cárcamo-Díaz. His point is simple: Lower-income households are most affected by supply shocks that inflate the price of goods as increasingly volatile weather makes prices more volatile, straining households with tighter budgets because it can take time for wages to catch up to steeper costs of living.
   10. Rising prices are expected to become even more of an issue as temperatures climb and extreme weather becomes more frequent and severe. In fact, a 2024 study found that heat extremes driven by climate change enhanced headline inflation for 121 countries over the last 30 years, with warming temperatures expected to increase global inflation by as much as 1 percent every year until 2035. Lead researcher and climate scientist Maximilian Kotz noted that general goods, or any physical things that can be bought, broadly experienced “strong inflationary effects from rising temperatures.”
   11. Electricity is already getting more expensive as higher temperatures and disasters strain grids and damage infrastructure, driving higher rates of utility shutoff for lower-income U.S. households. Without significant emission reductions, and monetary policies set by central banks and governments to mitigate the financial impacts of climate change by stabilizing prices, this inequitable burden is slated to get much worse. Severe floods derailing major production regions for consumer electronics and auto parts have recently disrupted global supply chains and escalated costs for things car ownership in the U.S. Persistent climate shocks have even triggered an enormous increase in the cost of home insurance premiums.
   12. All told, the inflationary impact of climate change on cost-of-living is here to stay and will continue to strain American budgets, said Semenova. [She continued,] “The era of relatively low and stable prices is over. Costs have been rising due to climate change. It’s the new normal.”
   13. That’s bad news for families like the Bishops, who are simply trying to get by.
   14. MIKE: Inflation is a complex subject, and the average person has trouble understanding its causes and effects. More importantly, the average person is most concerned with how to pay for stuff as prices inflate.
   15. MIKE: The simplest definition of price inflation that I’ve ever heard is, “too much money chasing too few goods.”
   16. MIKE: The first thing that must be understood is that getting inflation under control doesn’t necessarily — or even usually — mean that prices will go back down to where they were, although there may be some easing of prices as inflation comes under control. Rather, it simply means that prices don’t go up as fast.
   17. MIKE: Second, most people don’t realize that a small amount of price inflation — generally a target of about 2% inflation — is typically considered macro-economically beneficial, whereas deflation — the general lowering of overall prices — is considered detrimental to an economy.
   18. MIKE: Why is deflation generally considered a bad thing when most consumers would say they would love price deflation? There are several answers to this question. And again, where talking macro-economics as opposed to household
   19. MIKE: When prices are dropping in a deflationary economy, people tend to put off major purchases in the hope that they’ll get a better deal if they wait longer. An excellent example of this mindset was shown in the TV show, “The Honeymooners”. Ralph Kramden never bought a TV because prices kept dropping due to economies of scale as TVs became more popular. Ralph refused to buy a TV when he figured that the price would soon be less than he paid. This is an effect of price deflation. Now extrapolate that on a massive economic scale.
   20. MIKE: An additional problem posed by price deflation is on the supply side. While people are deferring purchases, companies cut prices to try to stimulate demand, and producing less product actually means that the supplier cost per item actually goes We just discussed how price deflation creates a demand problem by reinforcing buyers’ desire to wait for better prices. In the meantime, suppliers have fixed costs that do not go down. Mortgages, business loans, utility costs, and taxes are just a few examples of uncontrollable fixed costs.
   21. MIKE: For the most part, salaries are also relatively fixed costs, since most workers will not accept pay cuts. This means that the only supplier expense that is mostly controllable is labor costs, and this is controlled through layoffs.
   22. MIKE: Layoffs mean income cuts for many households. This further cuts consumption which means less aggregate demand and more price cuts, but also more layoffs, etc. This is a classic “vicious cycle” created by deflation.
   23. MIKE: This is why moderate price inflation of about 2% is considered beneficial. Prices fluctuate, but with a gentle upward trend. People wait for occasional sales where they can get a better deal, but they don’t have an expectation of long-term price declines. This creates a mindset of short-term purchase delays, but demand can be more consistent.
   24. MIKE: Consistent demand creates a more stable job market. Then, labor for workers creates upward pressure on wages, which ultimately are supposed to meet or exceed overall price inflation.
   25. MIKE: Now, the fixed costs of suppliers are met by increasing demand for their products. This increased demand supports prices and profits, which at least theoretically should translate into labor jobs and wage increases. As a result, you have an economy with more workers buying more stuff which creates more demand and more jobs. This is what is called a “virtuous cycle”.
   26. MIKE: It’s important to distinguish the difference between general deflation versus price reductions due to technological advancement, such as in the case of electronics. Those prices go down partly because of the cheaper cost of production combined with price competition. In this case, everyone wins, from the producer to the worker to the consumer.
   27. MIKE: What the world recently experienced, and as this article discusses, was a historically aberrant inflationary spike due to shortages that had little to do with excess It was a decline in supplies due to a global pandemic, geopolitics, and droughts and heat damage caused by climate change. Now, normal demand was creating price inflation because there simply wasn’t enough “stuff” to go around.
   28. MIKE: So, we now have too much money chasing too few goods, but it’s not due to too much money in circulation. It’s due to less than the normal availability of goods.
   29. MIKE: In a real sense, food inflation is being caused due to climate change affecting crop yields. Too little water and too much heat reduce crop production, affecting the prices of fruits and vegetables. This has a knock-on effect. A lot of grain production is used for animal feed, increasing the cost of meat.
   30. MIKE: And as the story discusses, production of various crops isn’t just used for food. It also goes into various other consumer products that are not obvious.
   31. MIKE: Energy costs are affected by climate change when extreme climate events cause energy demand to spike which increases supplier costs for natural gas and oil.
   32. MIKE: None of this matters to families trying to figure out how to pay for all the things they need, and who have their own fixed costs. But families don’t have the option of laying off family members to cut costs. But it helps a little to understand what is in a government’s control and what isn’t, which may affect how people vote.
4. Now, some stories looking at the current evolving situation in Syria. From December 7^th — Sweeping Syrian rebel advance resurrects U.S. fears of Islamist takeover; By Joby Warrick and Ellen Nakashima | WASHINGTONPOST.COM | December 7, 2024 at 6:42 p.m. EST@6:42 p.m. EST. TAGS: Syria, President Bashar al-Assad, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Abu Mohammed al-Jolani,
   1. When a patchwork of rebel armies threatened Syria’s capital a decade ago, governments from Washington to the Middle East were forced to confront a jarring possibility: A collapse of Syria’s brutal autocracy might lead to the rise of something even worse.
   2. At the time, the United States and its allies were pouring billions of dollars into arming pro-democracy rebels fighting to overthrow President Bashar al-Assad. But the militias that posed the greatest threat to Damascus were led by religious extremists bent on turning Syria into an Islamist caliphate.
   3. What if Assad fell, analysts asked, only to be replaced by groups that Washington regarded as terrorists? The scenario was given a name: the “catastrophic success.”
   4. The same question is being asked with urgency as intelligence agencies around the world contemplate the sweeping gains over the past week by the Syrian rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS — an Arabic name that translates to the Organization for the Liberation of the Levant.
   5. The group’s pedigree is well known, with historic links to both the Islamic State and al-Qaeda. From Jerusalem and Amman to Washington and Paris, governments are bracing for the real possibility that Damascus could come under the sway of a militant faction that the United States has officially labeled a terrorist organization.
   6. “They may have evolved, but their essential ideology is still the same,” said one Middle Eastern official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss military assessments, as reports of fresh HTS conquests continued to stream in.
   7. S. and Middle Eastern officials acknowledge that the situation in Syria is profoundly different compared to a decade ago. Russia now has multiple military bases in Syria and has shown a readiness to use air power to ensure the survival of its most important Middle East ally. According to a broad array of analysts and Syria experts, HTS also has changed, not just in its rhetoric but in its actions, including at least an initial public embrace of pluralism and religious freedom in areas that it has come to occupy.
   8. Whether HTS’s professions of reform are genuine is far from clear. It is one unknown among a swirl of uncertainties in a crisis changing so rapidly that Western intelligence analysts acknowledge they are struggling to keep up. …
   9. [MIKE: In the single day since this article was published, Damascus has fallen and Assad has fled to Moscow. Continuing …]
   10. The outcome could have major security impacts for Syria’s neighbors as well as the hundreds of U.S. service personnel deployed at military outposts in southern and northeastern Syria. The consequences could be even more profound for ordinary Syrians, including the 14 million — more than two-thirds of the country’s population — who are internally displaced or living as refugees, and the vast numbers of others who are simply exhausted after 13 years of conflict.
   11. “We’re not in 2014 anymore, and the groups we’re seeing in 2024 are not the same,” said Charles Lister, director of the Syria program at the Middle East Institute, a Washington think tank. “Despite concerns about some of the groups that are leading these advances, the idea that there could be some change around the corner is not necessarily being seen by Syrians as a bad thing. Until 10 days ago when all this started, there had been no light at the end of their very dark tunnel.”
   12. Almost no one saw it coming.
   13. For years, the conventional wisdom held that Syria’s civil war was a frozen conflict. After teetering on collapse against an onslaught of rebel militias, Assad was rescued in 2015 by Russia and Iran, which committed their own militaries to ensure the survival of a crucial ally.
   14. Assad’s forces had been struggling for three years against a sustained onslaught by a fractious network of rebel groups with competing interests and goals. The largest of the secular, pro-democracy factions was backed by the United States, which sought to tip the scale by providing military training and massive quantities of weapons and ammunition under a covert CIA program known as Timber Sycamore. The aid was partly intended to prevent a rise to power by Islamist groups such as the Islamic State — the “catastrophic success” that U.S. policymakers feared in early 2015.
   15. Yet, over time, the rebel side came to be dominated by the Islamists. Among these was a powerful al-Qaeda-linked group known then as the al-Nusra Front. Today, after numerous attempts at a remake, it is called HTS.
   16. The militia group was among the principal targets when Russian warplanes, backed by thousands of Iranian and Hezbollah fighters, began a drive in 2015 to expel the rebels from Syria’s major cities. In 2016, Iranians helped direct the siege of rebel-held Aleppo, a metropolis of nearly 3 million people that was nearly destroyed in the fighting.
   17. After al-Nusra’s retreat, an uneasy stalemate emerged, with Turkish-backed opposition forces controlling a narrow buffer zone along Syria’s northern border and U.S.-backed Kurdish fighters dominating the eastern provinces. Islamist rebels, led by HTS, retreated to a small enclave around the northern city of Idlib. Despite occasional skirmishes, the lines barely moved for years. Russia, Iran and Hezbollah built military bases in Syria to ensure that Assad could never be forcibly removed from power.
   18. Assad’s prospects began to deteriorate, almost unnoticed at first, amid the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in the aftermath of Hamas’s Oct. 7, 2023, terrorist attack. By decimating Hezbollah’s leadership and destroying much of its military capability, Israel undermined an essential pillar in Assad’s security infrastructure. Syria’s other benefactors, Iran and Russia, had become distracted meanwhile by problems elsewhere, including Moscow’s war against Ukraine.
   19. Despite the warning signs, Syria experts admit they overestimated the stability of the defensive wall that Assad built around himself. Over the past year it had quietly eroded, up until the day that a reinvigorated HTS decided to give it a shove.
   20. “Over time, Assad’s capabilities were going down, but it had to be put to the test,” Andrew Tabler, a top adviser on Syria for the Trump administration’s first National Security Council, said Thursday at a policy forum sponsored by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “So HTS, in their offensive, decided to poke the front line in a very dramatic way. That sudden collapse led to a sudden collapse of the entire front.”
   21. In the first nine days of the HTS offensive, rebel fighters overwhelmed Syrian army troops in Aleppo and Hama and pushed to the outskirts of Homs, a major security hub for Assad’s forces. Still, many U.S. and Middle Eastern analysts were predicting that the offensive would grind to halt as Syrian forces, backed again by Russian air power, regrouped to defend the approach to the capital.
   22. By late Saturday, the 11th day, with fighting underway in Homs and Syrian troops on the retreat in the country’s southern provinces, official predictions about Assad’s future had become much gloomier. A senior U.S. official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss military assessments, said Saturday said there was a “significant risk” of the regime’s collapse “in the near term.”
   23. Despite Russian and Iranian statements vowing to back Assad, the official said U.S. analysts were seeing evidence that support for the Syrian leader was wavering. Both countries were advising their citizens to quickly leave the country, the official said.
   24. “Homs is where we start entering endgame territory for Assad,” said Aron Lund, a fellow at Century International and Middle East analyst at the Swedish Defense Research Agency, speaking on the “Warcast” podcast Friday. A collapse of government control in Syria’s third-largest city and leading industrial center would effectively “cut the regime in two parts,” separating Damascus from the coastal areas that provide Assad’s main base of support and house Russian air bases and naval ports.
   25. “That is the point where the destruction of his regime … starts looking very, very plausible,” he said.
   26. By all accounts, HTS has evolved considerably since the days of the “catastrophic success” warnings. By 2015, the group formerly known as al-Nusra Front had changed its name and disavowed any ties with the Islamic State, its parent organization. In 2016, its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, had also publicly broken with al-Qaeda and other Islamist extremist groups.
   27. Jolani has sought since then to cultivate a more moderate, tolerant image and to root out — sometimes brutally — Islamic State supporters in his enclave as well as extremists within his organization, analysts say.
   28. Even as his army was on the march in the past two weeks, Jolani has gone out of his way to present his reformer’s credentials to Western audiences, offering interviews to CNN and the New York Times.
   29. “No one has the right to erase another group,” Jolani said of Syria’s ethnic and religious minorities in a CNN interview broadcast on Friday. “These sects have coexisted in this region for hundreds of years, and no one has the right to eliminate them.”
   30. Jolani even suggested that he might disband his own organization in order to build a new government that represented all parts of Syrian society.
   31. “We are talking about building Syria,” Jolani said. “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is merely one part of this dialogue, and it may dissolve at any time. It is not an end in itself but a means to perform a task: confronting this regime.”
   32. Syrian advocacy groups say Jolani has generally followed through on his pledge of moderation by allowing freedom of worship and granting rights to women — including the right to pursue professional careers and attend college — in HTS’s Idlib stronghold, as well as the cities that have recently fallen to the group.
   33. Mouaz Moustafa, executive director of the Syrian Emergency Task Force, a Washington-based advocacy group with an extensive network in northern Syria, said Aleppo’s citizens have largely welcomed the HTS fighters. A prominent leader of the city’s Orthodox community told him that Christian neighborhoods were putting up Christmas decorations without rebel interference, Moustafa said.
   34. “There are no reports of violations against citizens,” he said. Moustafa, who also spoke at the Washington Institute forum, chafed at calls by the Biden administration and other Western officials for an immediate de-escalation in the fighting. “De-escalation of what? The liberation of towns and cities from a Russian-Iranian-backed Assad regime?” he asked.
   35. Still, several U.S. and Middle Eastern analysts said they are not yet convinced by Jolani’s claims of reform.
   36. Some noted that Afghanistan’s Taliban rulers also promised a more tolerant governing style after seizing control of Kabul in 2021. Instead, Afghanistan’s conservative leaders have imposed draconian restrictions on the country’s female population, including a new prohibition against attending medical classes. Other officials noted that HTS has expressed support for Hamas’s Oct. 7 terrorist attack against Israel — echoing the stance taken by Hezbollah and Iran, Assad’s longtime backers.
   37. Even if HTS seizes control Damascus, the reality of the group’s nature and intentions may not be clear for weeks or months. By then, Jolani and his followers may already be deeply entrenched, analysts say.
   38. “He’s still personally a very conservative Islamist figure,” said Lister, the Middle East Institute scholar. “He has created a trajectory that he cannot reverse. Now there is a question, and a justifiable one, as to whether or not he can sustain this kind of balance.”
5. From the Washington Post, in a related story that I think presents some important background on Trump’s views on Syria — Trump says U.S. should stay out of Syria conflict as Assad regime teeters; By Maegan Vazquez and Marianne LeVine | washingtonpost.com | December 7, 2024 at 7:31 p.m. ESTat 7:31 p.m. EST. TAGS: President-elect Donald Trump, Syria, United States,
   1. President-elect Donald Trump signaled on Saturday that he believes the United States should not get involved in the conflict in Syria, sending a signal about possible future U.S. policy toward the region as rebel groups made stunning advances to encircle the Syrian capital of Damascus.
   2. “Syria is a mess, but is not our friend, & THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT,” Trump warned in a post on his social media platform, Truth Social, while in Paris for the reopening of Notre Dame Cathedral and meetings with world leaders. “THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!” …
   3. Jolani has gone out of his way to present his reformer’s credentials to Western audiences, offering interviews with CNN and the New York Times. Jolani told PBS’s “Frontline” in 2021 that unlike al-Qaeda or the Islamic State, it is “completely against our policies to carry out external operations from Syria to target European or American people.”
   4. The United States — which has about 900 American troops in Syria — has sought to distance itself from the offensive, suggesting that it is a product of conditions made possible by Syria’s reliance on Russia and Iran.
   5. In the first months of Trump’s first term as president, the U.S. military launched 59 cruise missiles at a Syrian military airfield, which was then the first direct American assault on the Assad government since that country’s civil war had begun. The Trump administration authorized the missile launch in retaliation for a 2017 chemical attack that killed scores of civilians.
   6. In December 2018, he ordered the withdrawal of 2,000 American troops from Syria, ending a military campaign that largely eliminated the Islamic State in a country where the Assad regime maintained the support of Russian and Iranian proxies. In October 2019, he ordered the withdrawal of American forces from northern Syria, effectively ceding Western influence in the country to Iran and Russia.
   7. Aron Lund, a Middle Eastern affairs expert who is a fellow at the think tank Century International, told The Washington Post that Trump’s recent comments about staying out of the Syria conflict may “help lock down U.S. noninvolvement.”
   8. [Lund said,] “I’m not hugely surprised by Trump saying that the United States should stay out of Syria’s crises. That has been his view pretty consistently. Still, it’s fair to ask how much you really can remain aloof from a country where you have troops deployed and where your local partner force controls a fourth of the territory. That’s a problem he’s going to have to grapple with from January onward.”
   9. Some individuals set to serve as Trump’s top national security advisers in his incoming administration have had mixed thoughts on Trump’s past decisions in the region.
   10. Michael Waltz (R-Florida), who Trump has named to serve as his national security adviser, said in 2019 that the decision to withdraw from northern Syria was “a strategic mistake” and that he feared the withdrawal would create conditions for ISIS to return to the region. …
   11. MIKE: How Trump addresses events in Syria will be an important geopolitical question that will have significant impacts in the Middle East and beyond. Syria has some very important neighbors sharing borders with it, from Turkey — a NATO member partner — to Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon and Israel. And it’s an important geopolitical crossroads between North African, Asian and European political and economic interests.
   12. MIKE: If Trump does actually decide to ignore events in Syria and leave it’s post-Assad evolution to others, it will be to the detriment of long-term US interests and influence in the region and, to some extent, globally.
6. Meanwhile, reports from around the world on events in Syria — ‘Delight in Syria’: what the papers say about the end of the Assad regime; Coverage of the extraordinary events in Syria has filled the front pages in the UK, US and Australia. By Tory Shepherd | THEGUARDIAN.COM | Sun 8 Dec 2024 22.13 EST. TAGS: Media, What the papers say, Syria, Middle East and north Africa, Bashar al-Assad,
   1. Newspapers covering the fall of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad and his subsequent flight to Moscow have reflected on the Assad family’s five decades of dynastic rule in Syria, jubilation across the country, and questions over what will happen next.
   2. The Guardian splashed with “Rebels seize Damascus as Assad flees to Moscow”, with a picture underneath of celebrations in Damascus. There was a pointer to Peter Beaumont’s profile of Assad, in which he writes: “Bashar is gone, swept out of power by an offshoot of al-Qaida. And with the dramatic ending of the half-century of Assad rule, a key section of the map of the Middle East has been utterly redrawn.”
   3. Under a headline that said “Syrians hail the fall of Assad”, the Times [of London] ran a series of photos captioned “jubilant Syrians topple a statue of Hafez al-Assad, father of Bashar, in the coastal city of Latakia before dragging it through the streets.”
   4. Syrians stormed Assad’s palace, walking out with trophies, the paper reported. “In jarring contrast, rebels also broke into the regime’s most feared jails … and broke down the doors of cells crammed with inmates”.
   5. The Daily Express ran a picture of grinning Syrian refugees in Lebanon. “Joy erupted in Syria,” chief reporter Giles Sheldrick wrote. “Thousands poured on to the streets chanting ‘Assad is gone’ as the army collapsed and the former president begged his ally Russia for asylum.”
   6. The rebels’ offensive was “stunning”, according to the Financial Times. It left many jubilant, while “myriad factions” eyed power, and Israel crossed the Syrian border. Raya Jalabi, writing from Damascus, said that the city’s roads were littered with abandoned Syrian army vehicles. “Some so freshly vacant that soldiers’ clothes, blankets, boots and medication were left behind in a hurry,” she wrote.
   7. The Daily Telegraph called Assad the “butcher of Damascus” and outlined his flight to Moscow, where he was granted asylum. There were eight pages of news and analysis, including a front-page piece by Con Coughlin, which said the “humiliating collapse” of Assad’s regime was “a fitting end for a man who was always temperamentally unsuited to the demands made of a modern-day tyrant”.
   8. The Daily Mail ran a special edition, with its main headline asking the question: “Assad is toppled … but is worse to come?”. A second headline pointed to Andrew Neil’s column: “This is a disaster for Iran, and the ayatollahs have never been more vulnerable. The smell of regime change is in the Tehran air,” he wrote.
   9. “Syria’s rebels are far from saviours,” the Australian’s headline on its inside story read, accompanied by analysis from Cameron Stewart about the potential for future chaos. “Australia and the western world will welcome the demise of this ruthless dictator … but the story of his remarkable toppling by a coalition of Islamist groups is not a simple case of good versus evil,” he wrote.
   10. The New York Times reported that, for US President Joe Biden, the fall of Assad presented a “fundamental challenge”: “How does the United States make friends with the newly emerging forces taking control in Syria when it has deemed them terrorists? And should it?”
   11. MIKE: The article also has images of the various front pages it refers to.
7. Israel ‘Conquers’ Syria’s Highest Mountain; Ex-IAF Pilot Explains The Significance Of Mount Hermon; By Ashish Dangwal | EURASIANTIMES.COM | December 10, 2024. TAGS: Israel, Syria, Assad Regime, Iran, Hezbollah,
   1. Israel has unleashed massive airstrikes across Syria, signaling its determination to secure its interests after the ‘stunning’ fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
   2. Over the past 48 hours, Israeli fighter jets have carried out more than 300 aerial assaults targeting key Syrian military sites. The airstrikes were labeled as the most powerful against Syria since the 1973 October War. 
   3. With the Assad regime, a key ally of Iran, ousted from the country, Israel moved quickly to carry out what many termed a “defanging operation,” aimed at dismantling the remaining military infrastructure in Syria and ensuring that advanced weaponry does not fall into hostile hands. 
   4. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made it clear on December 9 that Israel would use all available means to safeguard its security in the aftermath of Assad’s collapse. 
   5. [Said a senior Israeli source,] “Israel’s goal is to destroy all Syrian Army equipment, from tanks to missiles.”
   6. According to Israeli media, the Israel Air Force (IAF) targeted a wide range of military assets, including aircraft, missiles, and chemical weapons stockpiles. 
   7. These strikes were concentrated primarily in southern Syria, around the capital, Damascus, and focused on disabling air defense systems, warehouses of surface-to-surface missiles, and chemical weapon facilities. 
   8. Israeli security sources noted that these operations have significantly expanded the IAF’s operational freedom, providing greater flexibility in addressing emerging threats in the region. 
   9. Reports also indicate that Hezbollah, a Lebanese militant group allied with Assad and Iran, has attempted to seize Syrian weaponry. 
   10. The airstrikes reportedly struck at least three major Syrian military airbases …
   11. These bases housed dozens of helicopters and jets, many of which were reportedly destroyed in the attacks. In addition, IAF jets targeted several other military facilities, including a research center near Damascus and a center for electronic warfare in the Sayeda Zainab area.
   12. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), a London-based monitoring group, also reported that Israel’s air campaign had wiped out some of Syria’s most vital military sites. These included airports, military warehouses, radars, and ammunition depots scattered across Syria. 
   13. SOHR also confirmed that the 112th Brigade in the western countryside of Daraa and Al-Kam military warehouses near Mahja Town were among the targets of Israel’s airstrikes. 
   14. Among the most notable strikes was an assault on the Syrian Scientific Studies and Research Center (SSRC) in Barzeh, north of Damascus. 
   15. The SSRC, a facility long suspected of being involved in Syria’s chemical weapons program, had already been targeted in previous Israeli operations. Explosions in the area confirmed that the research center had been struck again. 
   16. Images circulating online also suggest that key Syrian military assets, including MiG-29 and MiG-21 fighter jets, were destroyed in the strikes [as well as] showing damage to French-made Aérospatiale Gazelle helicopters, which Syrian rebels at the Mezzeh Air Base in Damascus had recently captured. 
   17. These helicopters, which date back to the 1970s, were once used by Syrian forces in anti-tank missile operations against Israeli armored vehicles during the 1982 Lebanon War. The loss of these aircraft represents another major blow to Syria’s airpower. 
   18. Furthermore, one of Syria’s Pantsir missile defense systems appears to have been destroyed in the operation. The Pantsir system, which is designed to intercept aerial threats, had been a cornerstone of Syria’s defense against airstrikes. 
   19. … In addition to its airstrikes, Israel has deployed additional ground forces deeper into the Golan Heights, a region it has occupied since the 1967 Six-Day War.
   20. Israeli ground forces advanced beyond the demilitarized zone along the Israel-Syria border over the weekend, marking their first significant entry into Syrian territory since the 1973 October War, reported the New York Times. 
   21. Israeli troops took control of the summit of Mount Hermon on the Syrian side of the border, along with several other strategic locations crucial for stabilizing control in the area.
   22. On December 8, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) 210th Division began proactive defense operations in the Golan Heights in response to internal developments within Syria. …
   23. These forces are deployed at key positions within the buffer zone, with engineering, infantry, and armored units operating under the command of the 474th and 810th regional brigades to secure Israel’s border with Syria.
   24. Israel’s Minister of Defense, Yisrael Katz, has instructed the creation of a “safe zone” in Syria, which would be free from weapons and ‘terrorist’ infrastructure. 
   25. Katz’s orders include ensuring the zone remains free of strategic weapons and preventing the renewal of smuggling routes from Iran to Lebanon via Syria.
   26. Meanwhile, Syrian sources also reported that an Israeli military incursion has reached about 25 kilometers southwest of Damascus, with Israeli forces reportedly advancing into Qatana, approximately 10 kilometers into Syrian territory. 
   27. However, Israel has denied claims that its forces have moved beyond the buffer zone, with an IDF spokesperson stating that troops have not left the designated area.
   28. [MIKE: There appear to be conflicting reports as to whether IDF forces have advanced outside the Buffer Zone, and if so, by how much. Continuing …]
   29. … Naftali Hazony, a former Israeli F-16 pilot, provided insight into the profound significance of Israel’s capture of Mount Hermon. Hazony explained that this strategic maneuver has altered the regional security balance and offers Israel critical advantages over its adversaries.
   30. He said, “Israel has conquered Mt. Hermon, the highest mountain in Syria, its peak reaching 2,814m. Syria’s capital, Damascus, is only 40 km away, now within range of Israel’s artillery shells.”
   31. Hazony detailed how Mount Hermon served as a natural fortress, previously offering Syria an elevated position that dominated much of the surrounding area. 
   32. [Hazony said,] “For decades, Israel’s northern defenses were overshadowed by Syria’s Mt. Hermon. No longer. The most important natural fortress in the region is now in the hands of Israel. Israel did it quietly, driving into Syria’s abandoned positions and taking them without a fight.” 
   33. In addition to its tactical value, Hazony pointed out that Mount Hermon’s strategic position had long left a blind spot in Israel’s radar coverage. With Israel’s control of Mount Hermon, Hazony noted, Israel’s radar systems can now cover a much broader area, including parts of Syria and Lebanon.  
   34. Hazony explained, “Once placed on Mt. Hermon, Israel’s radars will see far into both Syria and Lebanon, providing early warning of incoming low-flying jets and drones. Israel’s intelligence can also leverage the peak, placing sensors to conduct surveillance and intercept enemy communications.” …
   35. He also pointed out that several of Hezbollah’s smuggling routes north of the mountain have now been cut off, limiting the group’s operational flexibility.
   36. Hazony stated, “As the sun rises, Mt. Hermon casts a shadow over Hezbollah’s stronghold in Southern Lebanon, dominating the main road to their northern stronghold in the Beqaa Valley. Several of Hezbollah’s smuggling routes north of the Hermon have been cut off.” 
   37. He concluded by saying, “Be it ISIS, HTS, Iran, or Hezbollah, a hostile force advancing toward Israel will now be exposed — at the mercy of Israel’s drones, surface-to-surface missiles, and laser-guided bombs. Residents of north Israel can sleep more soundly knowing that Israel controls this peak.”
   38. MIKE: From this article, I think that whatever the final resolution of Israel’s presence in the Buffer Zone, I think we can assume that the strategic and tactical importance of Mt. Hermon make it unlikely that Israel will give it up willingly any time soon. The only scenario where I can see that happening would be if Israel and whatever stable government finally takes power in Syria sign a final peace agreement addressing Israel’s legitimate strategic concerns. Even so, Mt. Hermon will be a serious sticking point in any future peace negotiations.
   39. MIKE: I certainly understand how many listeners might be appalled at Israel conducting hundreds of missions to destroy Syrian strategic military assets. But I would argue that Israel learned the lesson from America’s critical strategic mistake at the end of the Second Gulf War in Iraq. Essentially, it boils down to securing or destroying the former regime’s weapons. Otherwise, expect them to be used against you in the future. Israel has no intention of repeating that error.
   40. MIKE: On the flipside, I can certainly understand how any group taking power in Syria will be mightily upset about these attacks. It will certainly complicate any hopes for future peace negotiations between the parties.
   41. MIKE: Note that in the story, it’s mentioned that Hezbollah — to no one’s surprise and not unreasonably from Hezbollah’s point of view — has already tried to capture important Syrian military equipment. These Israeli attacks were meant to avoid and pre-empt such efforts.
   42. MIKE: Israel’s capture of Mt. Hermon is probably as important to Israel as it’s 1967 capture of the Golan Heights. Pre-1967, Syria held the Heights and used them to rain artillery fire down on Northern Israel. This is why Israel has refused to even discuss returning the Heights to Syria. Mt. Hermon would appear to be of equal strategic importance for offense, defense, and basic intelligence gathering.
   43. MIKE: Again, I can understand why many people will feel that this is an Israeli aggression on Syrian territory, but I would also ask anyone feeling that way to objectively consider Israel’s legitimate defensive needs from their point of view.
   44. MIKE: I think it’s always useful to ask yourself: In their place, what would you do?
   45. MIKE: Embedded in the original story is a map showing the area immediately around Mt. Hermon. It includes a section of southwest Syria, southern Lebanon, and the Golan Heights. The map gives a clearer impression of what’s at stake in this strategically important geography.
   46. REFERENCE: We don’t know how the rebels will act, IDF commander tells ToI inside southern Syria — Times of Israel joins troops at Syrian army post that was abandoned with fall of Assad’s regime; IDF has quickly implemented plans originally drawn up for a potential Iran-backed attack — By Emanuel Fabian | TIMESOFISRAEL.COM | 11 December 2024, 8:00 pm
   47. REFERENCE: Elite units and tanks: IDF deployment across Syrian border signals strategic shift; As history unfolds, Israel strengthens its position by capturing key high points on Mount Hermon from the Assad regime, citing regional chaos as Iran’s influence wanes and Islamist forces rise in Syria — By Yoav Zitun| YNETNEWS.COM | 12.08.24 @ 15:13. Related Topics: Bashar Assad, IDF, Israel, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Mount Hermon,
   48. REFERENCE: In historic campaign across Syria, IDF says it destroyed 80% of Assad regime’s military; After rebel takeover, Israeli Air Force and Navy strike missile depots, naval vessels, fighter jets and more to ensure they don’t fall into wrong hands. By Emanuel Fabian and ToI Staff | TIMESOFISRAEL.COM | 10 December 2024, 8:15 pm/Updated at 9:14 pm
8. Kyiv reveals total Ukraine casualties in Putin’s war for first time; By Veronika Melkozerova | POLITICO.EU | December 8, 2024 2:40 pm CET. TAGS : Counteroffensive, Ukraine, Kremlin, War in Ukraine, Russia, Ukraine, United States, Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, Volodymyr Zelenskyy,
   1. [Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Sunday that since] the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, Ukraine has lost 43,000 soldiers killed in action and 370,000 more were wounded, in Kyiv’s first disclosure of total casualty figures in the nearly three-year conflict.
   2. Zelenskyy announced the figures in a Telegram post on Sunday after United States President-elect Donald Trump said early Sunday that Ukraine had “ridiculously lost 400,000 soldiers” in the war started by Russian President Vladimir Putin almost three years ago.
   3. [MIKE: I’ll note here that Trump conflated two numbers. Of the 370,000 soldier’s that Ukraine admits were wounded, some that were no longer capable of active duty may still have been suited to support roles or still able to make valuable economic contributions. Continuing …]
   4. In February, Zelenskyy said Kyiv had seen 31,000 troops killed in action in the conflict, but refused to give the number of wounded, saying he didn’t want to give the Kremlin too much information. Since then, he has routinely described estimates published by various media outlets as overblown.
   5. “Since the beginning of the full-scale war, Ukraine has lost 43,000 soldiers who died on the battlefield,” plus 370,000 who have been wounded, Zelenskyy said in his post. “And this is taking into account that in our army approximately 50 percent of the wounded return to service, and all injuries are recorded, including minor and repeated ones,” he said.
   6. “And let’s not forget we managed to return 3,767 warriors from Russian captivity,” Zelenskyy added.
   7. The Ukrainian figures compare with 600,000 dead and wounded reported for the Russian side. Zelenskyy insists that Moscow’s losses are larger than that.
   8. [The Ukrainian president said,] “Updated data on Russian losses exceed 750,000 of their people. This is 198,000 Russians killed and more than 550,000 wounded.” Since September Russia has been losing five or six troops for every Ukrainian soldier lost in battle, he added.
   9. Zelenskyy reiterated his push for a “just peace” that includes guarantees for Ukraine against a renewal of Russian aggression in the future.
   10. [Zelenskyy said,] “A cease-fire without guarantees [means conflict] can be reignited at any moment, as Putin has already done so. To guarantee that there will be no more Ukrainian casualties, we must guarantee the reliability of peace and not turn a blind eye to the occupation.”
   11. MIKE: I think it’s really important to put these numbers into some kind of comprehensible perspective.
   12. MIKE: Russia’s current population is about 139 million. In 1941, the US population was about 133.4 million. So almost the same as the current population of Russia.
   13. MIKE: During all of WW2, the US suffered 405,000 war-related deaths and 671,000 wounded in three years of global war on three continents and two oceans.
   14. MIKE: Russia is believed to already have suffered almost 750,000 dead and wounded, just in the Ukraine War, although this is the largest land war in Europe since WW2.
   15. MIKE: For another comparison, for perspective, Russia’s population is 43% that of the United States now. Russia’s war casualties in Ukraine would be like the US suffering 460,000 dead, and 1,279,000 wounded today. Those are almost US Civil War-level casualty figures. So as a proportion of Russia’s current population, they’ve already suffered enormously.
   16. MIKE: Does the Russian public have a grasp on just how awful this war has been for Russia? They have to know that a lot of their men have died or come home damaged, but do they know the Big Picture when it comes to totals? Could the average Russian possibly believe that this war is worth that cost? And it’s still going on!
   17. MIKE: In the Vietnam War, the US suffered about 58,000 dead and 300,000 wounded. Again, less than half of the casualties that Russia has already suffered in a war that is still ongoing. And we know how that impacted US politics at the time.
   18. MIKE: In an open society, these totals would be politically unsustainable without some existential national cause, and this war is not that. But it may be existential for Putin and his oligarchs, and that may be the only reason that this war has continued. Losing the war after all this national sacrifice might mean the end of the Russian government as we have known it for 25 years.
9. Zelensky meets with Trump in Paris as he tries to build support for Ukraine; By Cat Zakrzewski, Siobhán O’Grady and Maegan Vazquez | WASHINGTONPOST.COM | December 7, 2024 / Updated at 5:23 p.m. EST at 5:23 p.m. EST. TAGS: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, President-elect Donald Trump, French President Emmanuel Macron,
   1. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Saturday strode into the Élysée Palace … to meet with President-elect Donald Trump, marking their first in-person discussion since Trump secured the White House while promoting an isolationist agenda that could limit aid to the embattled country. …
   2. Zelensky tweeted that the meeting, which was about 30 minutes long, was “good and productive.” He said the leaders agreed to continue to work together and stay in contact.
   3. [Zelensky wrote,] “We all want this war to end as soon as possible and in a just way. We spoke about our people, the situation on the ground, and a just peace.” …
   4. Separately, the Pentagon announced Saturday that it would provide nearly $1 billion worth of munitions to Ukraine, as the administration races to spend an aid package that Congress passed in April before Trump returns to the White House. …
   5. Trump has said he plans to end the war in Ukraine quickly, and he has criticized the United States for spending too much on the conflict. The president-elect has not yet outlined how he would stop the conflict that has plagued Ukraine for nearly three years, but his often cordial relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin has raised concerns about the concessions he might be willing to make when he returns to the White House.
   6. Trump and Zelensky spoke over the phone following the 2024 election on a call that included Musk. Zelensky and Trump also held a meeting in September at Trump Tower in New York.
   7. MIKE: I don’t think anyone really knows what Trump will do about the Ukraine War until after January 20^th. We can only hope for the best for Ukraine.

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