AUDIO:

POSSIBLE TOPICS: VOTETEXAS.GOV—Voter Information; REGISTER TO VOTE; APPLY FOR MAIL-IN BALLOT;Harris County commissioners approve climate action plan, worker safety policy; ‘Once-in-a-lifetime opportunity’: Texas lawmakers have $188B available for 2024-25 budget; Jim Jordan Defends Physical Altercation on House Floor: ‘Exactly How the Founders Intended It’; Fallout and Doom QA Testers Just Formed the Biggest Union in the US Games Industry; A US federal agency is considering a ban on gas stoves; Tests on travelers from China offer rare snapshot of covid chaos; With China, America faces a preparedness crisis; The WTO’s national security ‘thin ice’ moment could shatter reform talks; More.

Thinkwing Radio with Mike Honig (@ThinkwingRadio) is now on Wednesdays at 11AM (CT) on KPFT FM-HD2, Houston’s Community Station. You can also hear the show:

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Welcome to Thinkwing Radio with Mike Honig where we discuss local, state, national, and international stories. My co-host and show editor is Andrew Ferguson.

https://www.youtube.com/embed/EwrSlzZC31w

1. Make sure you are registered to vote! VoteTexas.GOV – Texas Voter Information
   1. It;s time to snail-mail (no emails or faxes) in your application for mail-ballots, IF you qualify TEXAS SoS VOTE-BY-MAIL BALLOT APPLICATION (ALL TEXAS COUNTIES) HarrisVotes.com­ – Countywide Voting Centers, (Election Information Line (713) 755-6965), Harris County Clerk
   2. Harris County “Vote-By-Mail’ Application for 2022
      1. Fort bend County Elections/Voter Registration Machine takes you to the proper link
      2. GalvestonVotes.org (Galveston County, TX)
      3. Liberty County Elections (Liberty County, TX)
      4. Montgomery County (TX) Elections
      5. Brazoria County (TX) Clerk Election Information
      6. Waller County (TX) Elections
      7. Chambers County (TX) Elections
      8. For personalized, nonpartisan voter guides and information, Consider visiting Vote.ORG.   Ballotpedia.com and Texas League of Women Voters are also good places to get election info.
      9. If you are denied your right to vote any place at any time at any polling place for any reason, ask for (or demand) a provisional ballot rather than lose your vote.
      10. HarrisVotes.com – Countywide Voting Centers, HARRIS COUNTY – IDENTIFICATION REQUIRED FOR VOTING: Do not possess and cannot reasonably obtain one of these IDs?
          1. Fill out a declaration at the polls describing a reasonable impediment to obtaining it, and show a copy or original of one of the following supporting forms of ID:
          2. A government document that shows your name and an address, including your voter registration certificate
          3. Current utility bill
          4. Bank statement
          5. Government check
          6. Paycheck
          7. A certified domestic (from a U.S. state or territory) birth certificate or (b) a document confirming birth admissible in a court of law which establishes your identity (which may include a foreign birth document)
          8. You may vote early by-mail if:You are registered to vote and meet one of the following criteria:
             1. Away from the county of residence on Election Day and during the early voting period;
             2. Sick or disabled;
             3. 65 years of age or older on Election Day; or
             4. Confined in jail, but eligible to vote.
             5. Make sure you are registered:
             6. Ann Harris Bennett, Tax Assessor-Collector & Voter Registrar
             7. CHECK REGISTRATION STATUS HERE
             8. CLICK How to register to vote in Texas
             9. Outside Texas, try Vote.org.
2. BE REGISTERED TO VOTE, and if eligible, REMEMBER TO FILL OUT AND MAIL NEW MAIL-IN BALLOT APPLICATIONS FOR 2023 AFTER JANUARY 1, 2023.
   
   1. You can track your Mail Ballot Activity from our website with direct link provided here https://www.harrisvotes.com/Tracking
3. Harris County commissioners approve climate action plan, worker safety policy; By Rachel Carlton | COMMUNITYIMPACT.COM | 5:31 PM Jan 10, 2023 CST, Updated 5:31 PM Jan 10, 2023 CST
   1. Harris County commissioners unanimously approved adopting a worker safety policy for contractors at construction sites, but voted along party lines to approve a climate action plan at their Jan. 10 meeting.
   2. County Judge Lina Hidalgo was not in attendance due to taking personal leave. …
   3. While the vote for the policy went 4-0, Precinct 3 Commissioner Tom Ramsey—serving as the court’s sole Republican following Precinct 4 Commissioner Lesley Briones’ win over former commissioner Jack Cagle—voted against a number of items approved by his three Democratic colleagues, including the county’s climate action plan.
   4. Under the plan, the county is targeting a 40% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 through modifications to its internal operations. …
   5. In his opposition to the plan, Ramsey said the plan left him with more questions than answers.
   6. “We need to be sure we get the most bang for our buck when we’re trying to solve a problem and not just have a plan that looks good on paper, sits up on the shelf and [is] impossible to implement,” Ramsey said.
   7. MIKE: I get so tired of the bad guys being so predictably the bad guys. Do nothing about climate change and do more with less. So predictably villainous at this point.
   8. ANDREW: That’s actually a good point from Ramsey. Too bad I don’t trust him to believe it.
4. ‘Once-in-a-lifetime opportunity’: Texas lawmakers have $188B available for 2024-25 budget; By Hannah Norton | COMMUNITYIMPACT.COM | 7:31 PM Jan 9, 2023 CST, Updated 7:31 PM Jan 9, 2023 CST
   1. The 88th Texas Legislature will begin Jan. 10. The only bill lawmakers are required to pass during the 140-day session is a budget for the upcoming biennium, 2024-25.
   2. Lawmakers will have an unprecedented amount of money to spend as they create the state’s next budget: $188.2 billion. This is largely thanks to high sales tax revenue, spikes in energy prices and overall economic growth in recent years.
   3. This is a 26.3% increase in general revenue funds compared to the previous budget cycle, Texas Comptroller Glenn Hegar said during the presentation of his biennial revenue estimate Jan. 9. …
   4. This includes a $32.7 billion surplus, which Hegar said will be left over from the 2022-23 budget. He said federal coronavirus relief funds also helped lawmakers save money during the 2021 legislative session and prevent expenditures for the upcoming biennium, contributing to the high balance available.
   5. Hegar said such high revenue is not anticipated to occur in future bienniums. …
   6. The $188.2 billion in funds exceeds Texas’ spending limits, which are enshrined in both the Texas Constitution and state law. In November, the Legislative Budget Board voted unanimously to establish a 33% spending limit for the biennium. [MIKE: As near as I can determine, the spending limit is determined by the Texas economy’s rate of growth from the last biennium.]
   7. To spend additional money, lawmakers can pass new legislation that increases the spending cap. If at least three-fifths of lawmakers vote that emergency conditions exist, this would also allow them to surpass the cap.
   8. Hegar said he does not expect lawmakers to break the spending limits—instead, money may be left in the state treasury or set aside for future use. …
   9. Sales taxes will make up 53% of general revenue in 2024-25, the release said. Oil production taxes, motor vehicle taxes, housing taxes, franchise taxes and natural gas taxes are also anticipated to be major revenue sources. …
   10. [MIKE: The article goes into some more specific budget and revenue details.]
   11. Hegar recommended lawmakers use the unprecedented funds to strengthen Texas’ power grid; increase access to broadband; improve port and water infrastructure; increase salaries for state employees, teachers and nurses; develop the state’s skilled workforce; and provide property tax relief.
   12. MIKE: I’m actually a little surprised at the spending suggestions. I agree with all of them except the property tax relief. I think that should be a local decision. Rather, I’d like to see some state sales tax relief, since that’s a regressive tax that really hurts the poor.
5. Jim Jordan Defends Physical Altercation on House Floor: ‘Exactly How the Founders Intended It’; The congressman offered an odd defense of the confrontation between GOP Reps. Mike Rogers and Matt Gaetz. By Peter Wade | ROLLINGSTONE.COM | January 8, 2023
   1. According to Republican Rep. Jim Jordan, America’s founding fathers would have been totally fine with the physical altercation that took place on the House floor last week among members of his party. During the 14th round of voting to elect a speaker late Thursday night, Rep. Richard Hudson restrained Rep. Mike Rogers when Rogers angrily confronted fellow GOP Rep. Matt Gaetz for refusing to support Rep. Kevin McCarthy’s bid to lead the Republican majority.
   2. [On Fox’s Sunday show Jordan said,] “Sometimes democracy is messy, but I would argue that’s how the founders intended it,” [MIKE: Link included here.]  [Jordan went on,] “They wanted real debate, real input from all people, and then you get a decision…”
   3. Some Republicans have been doing their best to downplay the confrontation … [GOP Rep.] Rogers, … called the incident “really a big nothing burger” in an interview with The New York Post on Saturday. When McCarthy was asked about what happened in the tense conversations between members around the 14th vote, McCarthy evaded the question. “Oh nothing,” he replied, per The New York Times. “I mean, we ended up with a tie.”
   4. [Texas Republican] Chip Roy … tried to paint the fight in a positive light, saying on Sunday, “Some of the tensions you saw on display when we saw some of the interactions there between Mike Rogers and Matt Gaetz, we need a little of that, we need a little of this breaking the glass.” …
   5. As for Gaetz, he said in an interview Sunday that Rogers “has my forgiveness” for his “animated moment.”
   6. MIKE: I’m going to try not to judge another person’s emotional motivations, but I take real exception to Jim Jordan saying that the Founders would be fine with attempted assault on the floor of the House of Representatives. Otherwise the Constitution would have specified that it should be designed in the form of a Roman Arena.
   7. ANDREW: They might as well have, with every other inspiration they took from the Roman empire. In fact, this incident emphasizes the similarities between the US and Rome.
   8. ANDREW: Both nations featured a powerful ruling class, and a disempowered working class. Both empires had a thirst for power and influence, and little concern for who died to attain it. Both systems established a much-vaunted “peace” among the powerful and influential, and maintained it by wielding institutional violence against the masses. And finally, even then, sometimes that so-called peace faltered, and one senator swung a fist– or a knife– at another.
   9. ANDREW: Unfortunately, I think Jim Jordan is more right than he knows. And I think it explains a lot about how this country– and other countries modeled on the same source material– got where it is today.
6. Fallout and Doom QA Testers Just Formed the Biggest Union in the US Games Industry; “It’s difficult to express in words just how much winning our union matters to us.” by Emanuel Maiberg and by Jules Roscoe | VICE.COM | New York, US, January 3, 2023, 12:24pm
   1. Quality assurance workers at Microsoft’s ZeniMax Studios, the people who make the Elder Scrolls, Fallout, and Doom, games, just voted to form a union, making it the first games studio to unionize under Microsoft and the largest group of union-represented Quality Assurance testers at any U.S. game studio. …
   2. Motherboard previously spoke to organizers at ZeniMax Studios during the union election period. Workers said that they had decided to unionize for many reasons, which had piled up over time. 
   3. “It kind of felt like death in a thousand cuts,” said Ashe Myers, a QA tester and part of the organizing committee for the union, in a phone call at the time. “It was a lot of reasons. Low pay, forced overtime, little to no transparency with departmental changes and return to office. No word on COVID infections in-office.”
   4. Last year, QA testers at Raven Software, a development studio that works under the Activision Blizzard umbrella and which recently has been focused on the Call of Duty: Warzone game, voted to form their own union. The vote was historic, and ushered in the first major video game union in the United States. …
   5. MIKE: Change is generational, and history doesn’t repeat itself but it rhymes. Conservatives were able to whittle away at unions because so many workers had grown up with the rights won by unions that they took those rights for granted. They thought that unions were unnecessary taxes on their pay.
   6. MIKE: This current generation is learning what employment can be like without collective bargaining power. Now the pendulum appears to be swinging back the other way.
   7. ANDREW: I sent this to Mike because it fit two of my interests: video games and labor rights. I’m very excited, not just that my interests are intersecting like this, but also because the games industry is notorious for terrible labor practices, as is the tech industry as a whole. I think we’re seeing more tech-adjacent industries and subsets of the tech industry organizing, and I hope that prompts a wave that spreads to the rest of tech.
7. A US federal agency is considering a ban on gas stoves; By Ramishah Maruf | CNN,COM | Updated 8:43 AM EST, Tue January 10, 2023
   1. A federal agency is considering a ban on gas stoves, a source of indoor pollution linked to childhood asthma.
   2. In an interview with Bloomberg, a US Consumer Product Safety commissioner said gas stove usage is a “hidden hazard.”
   3. “Any option is on the table. Products that can’t be made safe can be banned,” agency commissioner Richard Trumka Jr. told Bloomberg. The report said the agency plans “to take action” to address the indoor pollution caused by stoves.
   4. The CPSC has been considering action on gas stoves for months. Trumka recommended in October that the CPSC seek public comment on the hazards associated with gas stoves. The pollutants have been linked to asthma and worsening respiratory conditions.
   5. A December 2022 study in the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health found that indoor gas stove usage is associated with an increased risk of current asthma among children. …
   6. Trumka told Bloomberg the agency plans to open public comment on gas stove hazards. Options besides a ban include “setting standards on emissions from the appliances.”
   7. Thirty-five percent of households in the United States use a gas stove, and the number approaches 70% in some states like California and New Jersey. Other studies have found these stoves emit significant levels of nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide and fine particulate matter – which without proper ventilation can raise the levels of indoor concentration levels to unsafe levels as deemed by the EPA. …
   8. [A] letter – Sen. Corey Booker and Sen. Elizabeth Warren among its signers – argued that Black, Latino and low-income households are more likely to be affected by these adverse reactions, because they are either more likely to live near a waste incinerator or coal ash site or are in a home with poor ventilation.
   9. In a statement to CNN, the CPSC said … any regulatory action would “involve a lengthy process.” …
   10. Some cities across the US banned natural gas hookups in all new building construction to reduce greenhouse emissions …
   11. But as of last February, 20 states with GOP-controlled legislatures have passed so-called “preemption laws” that prohibit cities from banning natural gas. …
   12. In a statement to CNN Business, the Association of Home Appliance Manufacturers said an improvement in ventilation is the solution to preventing indoor air pollution while cooking.
   13. “A ban on gas cooking appliances would remove an affordable and preferred technology used in more than 40% of home across the country,” Jill Notini, industry spokesperson, said in a statement. “A ban of gas cooking would fail to address the overall concern of indoor air quality while cooking, because all forms of cooking, regardless of heat source, generate air pollutants, especially at high temperatures.”
   14. The American Gas Association pushed back against a natural gas ban in a blog post in December, saying it makes housing more expensive as “electric homes require expensive retrofits.”
   15. However, Biden’s landmark Inflation Reduction Act includes a rebate of up to $840 for an electric stove or other electric appliances, and up to an $500 to help cover the costs of converting to electric from gas.
   16. MIKE: There’s actually a lot to unpack in this story that it doesn’t touch on.
   17. MIKE: Just to let you know, I speak with some first-hand knowledge here, as I used to sell appliances.
   18. MIKE: First, this sort of ban is not unprecedented. It’s been decades since built-in gas ovens were banned. The reason was that a gas leak from a built-in gas oven can accumulate inside the wall and eventually cause an explosion.
   19. MIKE Almost anyone replacing a built-in gas oven (aside from extremely limited exceptions) has faced the problem of getting a 220-volt plug wired into the oven location. It causes significant financial pain in many cases.
   20. MIKE: Second, and it’s not emphasized in the story, is that no one is going to come and seize your gas stove. No one is going to turn off the gas to your house. The issue will only come up when it’s time to replace your stove or do a remodel and want a new stove.
   21. MIKE: If you have a gas range and your house was built over the last couple of decades, you may well have the necessary 220-volt outlet behind your gas stove. That will make a future transition relatively painless.
   22. MIKE: Third, I’m well aware of the advantages and disadvantages of a gas range versus an electric range. Gas range cooktops are more immediately responsive to temperature controls. Gas range ovens tend to do more even cooking, even without a convention fan.
   23. MIKE: But here’s the good news. Modern electric ranges can match or outperform gas ranges. An electric range’s oven with convection cooking can match or outperform a standard gas oven. These are now common.
   24. MIKE: A cooktop option is induction cooking. Induction cooking is more energy efficient, puts no combustion pollutants into the air, and is incredibly safe. The cooking elements don’t directly create heat. A crude comparison would be a microwave oven, which cooks by agitating water molecules in the food. An induction element electromagnetically agitates the molecules in pot or pan, which then cooks the food inside. The induction element itself never even gets warm, making it incredibly safe for children and pets, not to mention cooks.
   25. MIKE: Induction ranges and cooktops are currently a relatively expensive technology, but that would likely change if a ban on gas ranges increased demand and economies of scale drove down prices.
   26. MIKE: It must be noted that induction cooking requires cookware that has some magnetic qualities. This includes certain types of stainless steel (with or without non-stick coatings) and cast iron. Even aluminum pots with the proper stainless steel bottom will work.
   27. MIKE: From a Consumer Reports article I reference at the bottom of this story, “While most of the cookware in our ratings is induction-compatible, some pans—including those made of aluminum and anodized aluminum—won’t work on induction. Most others, including stainless steel and cast iron, will. If you’re shopping for new cookware, look for pots and pans marked “induction-compatible.” To determine whether your existing arsenal of cookware will work with an induction range, see if a magnet strongly sticks to the bottom of your pots. If it does, they’ll work on an induction burner.”
   28. MIKE: Many vested and political interests will fight any changes to rules on gas ranges, but any transition will be gradual over years, and will be better for both families and the environment. Including the environment inside your home!
   29. ANDREW: I agree with you on every point here, Mike. One interesting thing I noticed (and I promise this isn’t an attempt at point-scoring on an unrelated issue): your argument here is very similar to the arguments I make about improving public transit at the expense of car infrastructure. Essentially, you have to give up an old way in order to make room for a new way. But your point about how it’s accomplished is important: no one’s coming to take your gas stove, or turn off your gas connection, just that when it’s time for an update, you update to the new way instead of the latest version of the old way. The same approach is taken in installing public transit improvements.
   30. ANDREW: Hell, the same approach is taken in most regulatory and government actions. Rarely is an issue worth the disruption caused by sending the government in to change something, as opposed to having the government set the instructions and letting them be followed when it’s necessary and convenient for the people who will be living differently.
   31. ANDREW: I think a lot of the resistance to regulatory changes, like the possible ban of gas stoves, is built around anxiety that the government will force action on consumers rather than let them comply when they need to. That anxiety is exploited and stoked by right-wing politicians who want to obstruct and destruct regulation in order to maximize corporate profits, and often, corporate control of some aspect of society. One way to fight this is to make it clear when a regulatory change isn’t going to be disruptive, which again, is most cases.
   32. REFERENCE: Pros and Cons of Induction Cooktops and Ranges — CONSUMERREPORTS.ORG
8. Tests on travelers from China offer rare snapshot of covid chaos; By Kelsey Ables | WASHINGTONPOST.COM | January 7, 2023 at 5:03 a.m. EST
   1. As more travelers from China begin visiting international destinations for the first time in three years, covid data from places with on-arrival testing is offering a glimpse into the pandemic situation within China, which the World Health Organization said has been obscured by insufficient data.
   2. In late December, two flights from China to Italy brought in almost 100 coronovirus-infected passengers; about half of one flight and one-third of another tested positive.
   3. Countries around the world soon implemented increased testing requirements for arrivals from China, which have gone into effect during the run-up to heightened travel during the Lunar New Year holiday in late January. The new rules come into effect amid reports of overflowing hospitals and medicine shortages in China after it reversed its “zero covid” policy. …
   4. Among the strictest are policies in Italy, South Korea, Japan and Taiwan, which require on-arrival testing for passengers from China. The United States requires proof of a negative test before departure, while other countries are testing wastewater from aircraft on flights originating in China. …
   5. Data from the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency obtained by The Washington Post showed a 23.2 percent infection rate for short-term visitors from China to Korea (or 314 out of 1,352 tested at the airport) from Jan. 2 to 6. …
   6. [Yanzhong Huang, senior fellow for Global Health at the Council on Foreign Relations, wrote in an email that], “These numbers are certainly [the] tip of the iceberg, highlighting the immense size of infections in China,” [as he responded] to early reports suggesting an infection rate of 20 to 50 percent among Chinese travelers. …
   7. On Sunday, China [was expected to] end extensive quarantine requirements for inbound passengers, a decision that will mostly benefit Chinese who want to leave or Chinese nationals abroad who want to return. Mainland China is still closed to foreign tourists.
   8. The move comes just weeks before the Lunar New Year, which begins on Jan. 22. Before the pandemic, travel during China’s “Golden Week” national holiday was believed to be the world’s largest annual human migration.
   9. The Chinese holiday “will ensure that the virus reaches every last corner of the country by the end of January,” [said Benjamin Cowling, an epidemiologist at the University of Hong Kong]. …
   10. MIKE: The pandemic is not over. There always seem to be new phases. Make sure your vaccinations are kept up to date.
   11. ANDREW: We should have these testing requirements on all flights, not just ones from China. Hell, even on domestic flights. We should be doing something to actually try and stop COVID, not just live with it until we get put on ventilators. You’re absolutely right that the pandemic is not over, and yet government policy is trying to push us all to believe and act like it is, because The Economy!
   12. ANDREW: It’s why China’s zero-COVID policy was extended so long, and why it didn’t work. A few countries taking a global pandemic seriously was never going to be enough to stop it. We all had to pitch in, and the US and many of its allies failed. Acting as if testing Chinese travelers is all that’s needed is ridiculous, xenophobic, and very well arguably racist. We need policy that cares about people before profit and actually limits the spread. It would be very, very late, but it would be better than never.
9. With China, America faces a preparedness crisis; by Aaron Friedberg and Michael Wessel, Opinion Contributors | THEHILL.COM/OPINION | 01/06/23 1:00 PM ET. Aaron Friedberg and Michael Wessel are members of the bipartisan U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission. The views expressed are their own and not intended to reflect those of other commissioners.
   1. [MIKE: Note that this is an opinion piece, and my choice of excerpts may alter the thrust of that opinion.]
   2. The continuing erosion of America’s manufacturing capacity and its deepening dependence on China pose unacceptable risks to our nation’s health, prosperity, capacity for self-defense, and ability to support friends and allies. Although these dangers are more widely acknowledged today than they were only a few years ago, the steps taken to address them thus far have been insufficient. A more comprehensive and coordinated approach is urgently required. 
   3. At the height of the COVID pandemic, many Americans learned for the first time that the manufacture of personal protective equipment and the active pharmaceutical ingredients used in many life-saving medications largely has been outsourced to China. Factory shutdowns, snarled supply chains, and hoarding by Chinese companies also contributed to a global semiconductor shortage that forced cutbacks in U.S. auto manufacturing. China today dominates the production of many of the rare earth minerals needed to make the products that will power a global energy transition. Chinese Communist Party (CCP) officials have threatened repeatedly to weaponize the supply chains they control, warning that they could suspend critical exports to countries that refuse to do their bidding. If nothing changes and Beijing someday follows through on these threats, the effects on our society and economy could be catastrophic.
   4. The war in Ukraine has revealed a further vulnerability: U.S. defense contractors lack the capacity to rapidly ramp up production of everything from missiles to radios. To make matters worse, some of the components and materials needed to manufacture this equipment are imported from China. …
   5. The United States must greatly accelerate its efforts to reduce dependence on critical imports from China and enhance our capacity for defense mobilization. Doing this will require better information and more comprehensive and realistic planning. In its annual report, the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission therefore recommends that Congress direct the Biden administration to create a White House-level Economic and Security Preparedness and Resilience Office. This new office would have two tasks:
   6. [T]the U.S. government still lacks broad, deep and sustained visibility into the nation’s rapidly evolving critical supply chains. [The new office would] collect data and refine analytic tools, monitor select supply chains, identify vulnerabilities and propose remedies, as needed.
   7. [Also, a] future war with China would pose unprecedented challenges, not only to America’s armed forces but to the nation’s defense industrial base and, indeed, to our entire economy. Despite recent talk of possible imminent conflict, Congress and the executive branch have only just begun to come to grips with the full magnitude of the problems that would ensue. A Defense Mobilization Unit in the Executive Office of the President would help to speed and steer this process across all relevant agencies. 
   8. Such a unit would assess requirements for weapons, munitions and other supplies and equipment needed to sustain U.S. and partner forces in a range of plausible scenarios, including those in which trade with China is effectively cut off and fighting drags on for many months. These requirements would provide the basis for assessing the adequacy of existing stockpiles and productive capacity and identifying investments that are needed now to prevent devastating future shortfalls.
   9. The trends that created our present vulnerabilities have been many years in the making; they have been ignored for far too long and will not be reversed cheaply or overnight. … There is no time to waste.
   10. MIKE: For years, I’ve said that during World Wars 1 and 2, the United States was called the arsenal of democracy. Now, it’s China.
   11. MIKE: Before I came up with that pithy saying, I’ve expressed concern for decades that the hollowing out of US domestic manufacturing was a national security problem. That a great power doesn’t find itself in that position because it has a powerful military. Rather, a great power has a powerful military because it has the economy and manufacturing base to support it. I’ve never understood why that wasn’t blazingly obvious on a national policy level. The Soviet Union knew this, Russia has learned this, and China figured this out decades ago.
   12. MIKE: Civilizations, nations and empires collapse for many reasons. It can be climate change. It can also be greed, complacency, and a long period of poor leadership.
   13. ANDREW: I’ve said before on this show that I support efforts to bring manufacturing back to the US, but that to do so with an eye for war is to fan the flames of it, and between nuclear powers, that is suicidal. All the manufacturing in the world can’t help you dodge an ICBM. There is absolutely no good reason to “prepare for war with China”, because there’s no good reason to think that China wants war with the US. Bring manufacturing back for consumers, not for war hawks.
10. The WTO’s national security ‘thin ice’ moment could shatter reform talks; by Bruce Hirsh, opinion contributor | THEHILL.COM/OPINION | 01/07/23 1:00 PM ET. Bruce Hirsh is principal at Tailwind Global Strategies. He previously served in senior positions at the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative and the Senate Finance Committee.
    1. [MIKE: Note that this is an opinion piece, and my choice of excerpts may alter the thrust of that opinion.]
    2. The already-beleaguered World Trade Organization dispute settlement system suffered new blows in December when multiple panels found that U.S. actions were not justified on national security grounds, including U.S. tariffs on steel. 
    3. The United States wasted no time in rejecting the findings, … prompting angry reactions in Europe. The cases have made the critical work of restoring a consensus on WTO reform considerably more difficult. 
    4. While reactions to the panel decision and its aftermath have focused on the Biden administration’s rejection and what it portends for the WTO, that reaction would have been the same regardless of the product and circumstances, and every U.S. president since Truman would have done the same. …
    5. From the outset of the WTO’s predecessor, the 1947 General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), the United States has been clear in its position that a party to the GATT and WTO may judge for itself when its national security interests justify raising tariffs or otherwise disregarding multilateral trade rules. … The [US] was not alone in taking this position; at various times, many other members have agreed, including some who would later challenge the U.S. steel tariffs such as the European Union and Norway. 
    6. This position was minimally disruptive to the trading system because of a strong norm that national security was to be invoked only rarely, and because creative trade diplomacy contained the fallout when it was. That norm was broken during the Trump years, not only when he initiated several national security investigations ranging from steel to autos, but when others, including China and Russia, increasingly restricted trade in the name of national security. 
    7. In response, WTO parties began to litigate the fundamental question of whether national security decisions could be reviewed. This was a lose-lose proposition since a clear finding for the U.S. position could open the door for abuse. And a finding against the U.S. position would almost certainly be disregarded, to the detriment of the system’s credibility. 
    8. But even more fundamentally, the decision to bring the case was pointless. The same relief — the right to raise tariffs on U.S. goods — was available without touching this third-rail issue. When a WTO member fails to implement an adverse decision, the member bringing a case is permitted to raise duties on the losing party’s goods. But the U.S. has in the past acknowledged that others may retaliate against national security measures and it was willing to litigate the amount. …
    9. WTO members have been discussing reforms [to] the organization’s dispute settlement system … . The Trump administration hobbled the system by blocking appointments to its appellate body, acting on long-standing, bipartisan U.S. concerns that the body was overreaching its authority and making law. The path to restoring the WTO’s dispute settlement function lies in assuring the United States that the system can be trusted to respect its limits …
    10. For all its flaws, the system has played an important role in resolving and containing disputes. One need look no further than the trade wars unleashed by the Trump administration to see the value in a system that heads off escalating tit-for-tat duties between countries insisting on their own rectitude. And the system lends credibility to the multilateral rules … of international economic cooperation, and which our allies continue to insist serve as the baseline for our trade relations, even as we respond to new security and economic challenges that may require deviating from free-trade orthodoxy. …
    11. [T]he U.S. response illustrates in the clearest terms [that] a functioning dispute settlement system would not prevent the United States and its allies from going outside the system to take actions necessary to address China’s predatory targeting of key sectors, nor would it prevent the United States from addressing climate change or strengthening U.S. manufacturing. …
    12. The U.S. and others always can choose whether to comply, understanding that the complainant may raise duties on their goods if they do not — an option available in any event. But the system limits that retaliation to the impact of the inconsistent measure, avoiding cascading retaliation cycles. …
    13. Some U.S. trading partners may … conclude from the U.S. reaction to the national security decisions that the United States has no interest in multilateral rules or enforcement mechanisms. But any U.S. administration would have done the same, even during the decades when the United States was at the forefront of promoting the multilateral trading system. The outcomes should instead serve as a wake-up call that WTO members need to exercise greater restraint in litigating. Similar restraint must be directly built into the WTO enforcement mechanism itself [by], for example, … codifying the past practice of limiting national security litigation to cover only the amount of retaliatory measures.
    14. MIKE: Nations can be a bit like so-called “sovereign citizens”. They have their own money, make their own rules, and act as laws unto themselves. When there is a rules-based order for international commerce, travel, navigation, and dispute resolution, most nations are better off. There is less conflict, death and destruction, and when there are international “rules of the road” that everyone more or less abides by.
    15. MIKE: Enforcement of the rules, if any, is typically done by a dominant power or group of powers. That enforcement historically has been gentle or harsh, and has been either relatively fair or extremely extractive. Of course, how one feels about the rules can be relative.
    16. MIKE: Among most northern hemisphere nations, this has worked out reasonably well. Most southern hemisphere nations probably feel differently, so there’s certainly plenty of room for improvement.
    17. MIKE: Andrew and I have had prior discussions about the relative merits of a unipolar world versus a bipolar world versus a multipolar world. Opinions can vary on which is better in terms of following rules, but I believe that an increasingly multipolar world among national “sovereign citizens” is increasingly dangerous. The Russo-Ukrainian war is just a glimpse of the depressingly possible.
    18. ANDREW: I want to quickly point out that the article makes clear that China and Russia haven’t been doing anything trade-wise that the US hasn’t been doing, and to treat it as a natural reaction by the US but condemn it as “predatory” from China shows a clear bias on the part of the author. As for the article’s point, further restricting the WTO is only helpful to keep the organization in its current state as an ineffectual mediator.
    19. ANDREW: The thing about a rules-based order is that it won’t last very long if its rules are meaningless. The League of Nations showed that, and the success of its successor, the United Nations, shows that the way you make the rules mean something is by giving the players reason to comply. Just like the UN provides funding, services, and diplomatic convenience to its members, the WTO needs to find its own compelling conveniences to offer if it wants to set rules and processes that are actually followed.
    20. ANDREW: Now, the UN also shows that an organization with that kind of soft power can be very easily dominated by powerful nations and can even shut out smaller powers entirely. If the same happened with a reformed WTO, I wouldn’t be surprised. But I would hope that with the UN’s structure as a warning, the smaller powers would be able to band together and outweigh the larger powers in the reform process so we don’t end up with a Trade Security Council.

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