AUDIO:
POSSIBLE TOPICS: VOTETEXAS.GOV—Voter Information; REGISTER TO VOTE; APPLY FOR MAIL-IN BALLOT; West U mayor: Edloe Street Pathway could transform ‘most dangerous’ path in city to safest one; Heights bikeway on 11th Street set for spring finish; City of Houston considers new protocol for residential buffering; Dick Benoit Prairie Preserve recently certified as a Texas Native Prairie; Missouri State Lawmakers Revise Their Dress Code for Women; GOP proposes anti-drag bill that classifies gender non-conforming performers as “adult oriented”; In a Drought, California Is Watching Water Wash Out to Sea; Study suggests US freshwater fish highly contaminated with ‘forever chemicals’; Here are the 10 states with the least healthy populations; Almost half of top foreign-policy experts think Russia will become a failed state or break up by 2033, according to a new survey
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- An educated electorate is a prerequisite for a democracy.
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“There’s a reason why you separate military and police. One fights the enemy of the State. The other serves and protects the People. When the military becomes both, then the enemies of the State tend to become the People.” ~ Commander Adama, “Battlestar Galactica” (“WATER”, Season 1 episode 2, at the 28 minute mark.)
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- For personalized, nonpartisan voter guides and information, Consider visiting Vote.ORG. Ballotpedia.com and Texas League of Women Voters are also good places to get election info.
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- West U mayor: Edloe Street Pathway could transform ‘most dangerous’ path in city to safest one; By Melissa Enaje | COMMUNITYIMPACT.COM |12:43 PM Jan 12, 2023 CST
Updated 12:43 PM Jan 12, 2023 CST- The future of Edloe Street in the city of West University Place has been decided after council members approved a construction contract for the Edloe Pathway Project at a Jan. 9 meeting by a 4-1 vote.
- The project covers roughly one-half of a mile, from Georgetown Street to Albans Road, and will cost the city an estimated $667,380. According to Mayor Pro-Tem John Montgomery, the city is willing to use its capital reserve fund to finish the pathway. …
- Improvements to the pathway include adding landscaping, native plants, drinking fountains and benches; … and adding new fencing along the west side of Poor Farm Ditch. …
- Council Member John Barnes voted against the project, advocating for more time for staff to go over costs and data. In an email sent to constituents Jan. 10, the day after the council meeting, Barnes relayed data from a citywide traffic study he said showed Edloe Street is safe. …
- As the project moves forward, staff from the parks and recreation department as well as council members will meet Jan. 23 with a budget amendment ordinance and execute the agreement.
- [Susan White, the city’s director of parks and recreation, said that] The new Edloe pathway could be completed by the spring …
- ANDREW: I like the mention of benches and drinking fountains. Amenities like these help make walking more accessible to all kinds of people, and they should be more common in these kinds of projects.
- Heights bikeway on 11th Street set for spring finish; By Shawn Arrajj | COMMUNITYIMPACT.COM | 8:15 AM Jan 13, 2023 CST
- Work is slated to be completed in the spring on a project to reduce car lanes and add bike lanes to a portion of 11th Street in the Heights.
- The project is expected to increase safety and multimodal connectivity and add safer crossings and on-street barriers for separated bike lanes.
- Crews are working to add refuge islands at Nicholson Street, Columbia Street and Northill Boulevard as well as high-visibility crosswalks on Oxford Street and Beverly Street.
- MIKE: According to a map included with the story, the project starts immediately east of North Shepard, continues past Studewood for another two blocks, and then turns south to terminate at Stude Park
- ANDREW: I love to see spending on non-car infrastructure. More bike infrastructure makes biking safer, more pleasant, and more useful, which makes biking more attractive, which gets people out of their cars … and out of my way on the road (wink). Also, the environment benefits, and people can save money on gas, which is helpful.
- City of Houston considers new protocol for residential buffering; By Leah Foreman | COMMUNITYIMPACT.COM | 6:39 PM Jan 16, 2023 CST, Updated 11:05 AM Jan 17, 2023 CST
- MIKE: Aside from excerpting this story, I’ve rearranged parts of it for clarity.
- Houston is a city without zoning requirements. However, city residents are airing their complaints—including issues with their larger, more industrial neighbors.
- At a Jan. 11 Houston City Council meeting, council members heard from members of the city’s planning and development department over proposed changes to the city’s code of ordinances regarding residential buffering on streets shared by commercial neighbors and larger, multifamily residences.
- These modifications to the code … entail setting a citywide standard for lighting requirements. The new standard deals with how exterior lighting from residential buildings and commercial construction should be placed as well as a new standard for Kelvin, or the color temperature of lighting, in Houston.
- The proposals would also update requirements for commercial garages to shield residents on shared streets from headlights shining into their homes and make changes to how commercial businesses are allowed to have dumpsters on streets shared with residential properties.
- Lighting on the exterior of commercial properties, on public streets or abutting residential developments, must have a maximum color temperature of 3,500 Kelvin, a neutral-warm tone. Commercial properties must also provide a shield to block out lighting on property abutting residential developments.
- Several council members chimed in after the public hearing to question elements of the proposed changes. With regards to the new lighting standards, District K Council Member Martha Castex-Tatum questioned why the commission settled on 3,500 Kelvin versus warmer 3,000 Kelvin lighting. …
- [Warmer, or less blue, light allows one to see more at night, according to [Debbie Moran, an amateur astronomer] who, over the years, has gained knowledge on lighting from organizations, such as the International Dark Sky Association, and champions her local fight via Softlight Houston. …]
- Under the proposed changes, high-rise structures taller than 75 feet must provide [a] buffer of 30-40 feet from all single-family residential and multiunit residential developments when along local, primarily residential, or collector streets, which feed into larger, high-traffic roads. At the same time, mid-rise structures, above 65 feet, must provide a buffer of 15 feet from all single-family residential and multiunit residential developments along local streets. This is meant to physically provide a separation between these properties, such as through landscaping or fencing.
- Going forward, all garages in the city of Houston that abut or are across from residential properties must have an external cover of at least 50 inches per floor, across all garage floors, to shield residences from the glare of vehicle headlights. This is 6 inches greater than the city’s previous standard for garage shielding.
- Bulk containers, such as those used for garbage, now must be screened in on all public streets and when adjacent to residential properties. …
- District C Council Member Abbie Kamin noted the changes to residential buffering will not be grandfathered in.
- “I would just say we continue to have challenges where someone may be holding over on a property, for let’s say over a decade, and because they are under the original application they don’t come under the new rules,” she said to Mayor Sylvester Turner. “I would just respectfully ask that we continue to look at that.”
- Similarly, District I Council Member Robert Gallegos noted concerns over residential developments that are built after and abut commercial garages.
- “My concern is if there is nothing there and someone builds a garage and, in time, someone comes in and builds residences across the street, the owner of the garage does not then have to go to these standards. Correct?” Gallegos said. “It’s going to happen where you’re going to have people calling into your office wanting to know why lights are shining into their residence, and your response is going to be, ‘Well the garage was built first and now your residence, so it doesn’t apply.’”
- Wallace Brown and [Suvidha] Bandi from the planning and development department said there is no clause in place to prevent that, and Turner said it is based on the city’s general principle on development: “first in time, first in rank.” …
- If approved, the changes will take effect 30 days from Houston City Council’s Jan. 18 meeting. …
- The city adopted noise ordinance changes last May, affecting residents and business owners, and setting a standard for sound limits.
- ANDREW: We mentioned how new regulations are often rolled out on an as-needed schedule in a recent episode, and this may be an example of when that approach is too lax. Clearly people are having problems with light and noise pollution from businesses now, and waiting for problem properties to change hands before remedies are ordered doesn’t help those folks.
- ANDREW: Perhaps there should be a period of time where enforcement of regulations like these is deferred, to give businesses that aren’t in compliance a chance to make more minor changes that might be enough to get a neighboring residence’s complaint withdrawn. But freezing regulations at the time a business is built, while great for business, isn’t good for people.
- Dick Benoit Prairie Preserve recently certified as a Texas Native Prairie; By Saab Sahi | COMMUNITYIMPACT.COM | 5:30 PM Jan 17, 2023 CST, Updated 5:30 PM Jan 17, 2023 CST
- Dick Benoit Prairie Preserve, which is located on the east side of League City, was certified as a Texas Native Prairie by the Native Prairies Association of Texas at the end of December, according to a post on the city’s website.
- Over 200 plant species were identified within the prairie by both the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department and the Galveston Bay Area Chapter of Texas Master Naturalists, according to the post.
- The preserve is a coastal prairie, which is an ecosystem that once covered 6.5 million acres of the Texas Gulf Coast, according to estimates by the University of Houston. Yet, only less than 1% of those original coastal prairies still exist.
- ANDREW: I’m excited to hear that there are still places in Texas where native plant life is thriving, and that steps are being taken to protect those places. I’d like to see more protection for those places, and efforts to help replace non-native plants with native plants on public land.
- Missouri State Lawmakers Revise Their Dress Code for Women; By Eduardo Medina | NYTIMES.COM | Jan. 15, 2023, 9:13 a.m. ET
- The Missouri State House of Representatives revised its dress code for female legislators and staff members, requiring them to wear a jacket, such as a blazer or a cardigan, and setting off a debate about policing the fashion choices of women.
- The updated dress code — which was adopted on Wednesday by a vote of 105-51 as part of a larger package of rules governing the House — drew criticism from some Democratic lawmakers, who described the Republican-backed effort as sexist and pointless. Supporters said it was a small tweak that would help ensure professionalism inside the chamber.
- The main proponent of the new rule — State Representative Ann Kelley, a Republican, who introduced it — said on the House floor that the new rules for women would mirror the dress code language for men, and that it “is essential to always maintain a formal and professional atmosphere” in the House. …
- Dress codes for men, who are required to wear a jacket, shirt and tie, were not changed. …
- Similar feuds over sexual bias in dress codes have played out across the country, particularly in school settings, other state legislatures and Congress, with students and professionals expressing frustration at unequal guidelines.
- In Wyoming, state lawmakers last year voted to loosen one of the strictest dress codes in the nation for legislators by simply requiring them to wear “business attire,” The Casper Star-Tribune reported. For example, bolo ties — a string tie held in place by an ornament that is called a bolo — had been acceptable, but they had to be “worn tight with the top button of a collared shirt buttoned.”
- In Montana, Democrats have criticized the dress code in the State House of Representatives, which says that female lawmakers “should be sensitive to skirt lengths and necklines.”
- In a 2021 report, the National Conference of State Legislatures said that about half of the states had some kind of dress code in place. In Georgia, suit coats for men and “dignified dress” for women were expected. And in Colorado, House members could wear “a suit coat or sport coat.” …
- After the vote, Ms. Kelley said on Facebook that she received “lots of hateful calls, emails, and messages in regards to this amendment, which is funny because we already have a dress code.”
- She added that she had not wasted time when introducing the amendment because she had spoken for less than five minutes. At her office this week, Ms. Kelley said, she frequently answered phone calls and got “cussed at.”
- “How is encouraging professionalism wrong?” she said.
- MIKE: There was a saying in the 1970s that when women achieved equality, they’ll have given up superiority. That was a catchy but snarky quip that missed the point of what equality for women meant in most cases.
- MIKE: In the case of the Missouri Legislature dress code, I think that at least on the surface, it seems fair. Personally, the only thing I can agree on with Jim Jordan is that having for wear a jacket and tie for hours in what is often a crowded room can be torture. I agree with the compromise of a tie and long-sleeved shirt, although it looks extremely out of place when everyone else is wearing that jacket.
- MIKE: Dress codes can be useful for lots of reasons in lots of situations, but I hate when they become oppressive.
- ANDREW: In my opinion, the only dress code that should be necessary for public facilities in the absence of any risk to life or limb is “cover your pelvis, torso, and foot regions, and don’t do it with anything that’s going to harm someone else”. Anything more is unnecessarily restrictive, and can disenfranchise people who don’t have money to throw around on nice clothes.
- GOP proposes anti-drag bill that classifies gender non-conforming performers as “adult oriented”; The Arkansas GOP thinks if you’re gender non-conforming and tell a dirty joke, you’re like a sex worker. By Daniel Villarreal | LGBTQNATION.COM | Friday, January 13, 2023
- Arkansas state Sen. Gary Stubblefield (R) has filed a bill that would classify drag queens as employees of an “adult-oriented business,” similar to nude models, porn actors, and sex workers.
- The bill would put restrictions on transgender and non-binary people singing and dancing in public. It would also require bars, restaurants, shops, and theaters to relocate if they allow such behavior from people of those identities or anything resembling drag.
- The bill, B. 43, defines a drag performance as one in which a performer “exhibits a gender identity that is different from the performer’s gender assigned at birth using clothing, makeup, or other accessories that are traditionally worn by members of… the performer’s opposite sex,” and performs a song or dance “intended to appeal to the prurient interest” in front of an audience of two or more people.
- By this broad definition, a transgender or non-binary person singing a song about lovemaking, reciting a sexual story, or gyrating while dancing would be legally considered the same as a sex worker or someone having sex on camera. In fact, the law would consider any person doing these things as someone who works for an “adult-oriented business” if they wore anything not associated with the sex they were assigned at birth.
- The law would also redefine an adult-oriented business as any place where such a performance occurs. This would include bars, restaurants, and any places that allow gender non-conforming individuals to sing, dance, or otherwise perform. …
- Legislators from at least seven states — Arizona, Idaho, Michigan, Montana, Missouri, Tennessee, and Texas — have proposed anti-drag laws in recent months, according to Bloomberg Law. Republican legislators in these states claim that drag shows “sexualize children” even though such performances rarely ever feature sexual content.
- The proposed legislation would almost certainly be challenged in court soon after being signed into law since it violates constitutional protections for free speech. But the real aims of such laws are to silence LGBTQ+ allies and generate outrage against the LGBTQ+ community. …
- ANDREW: The main reason this is bad legislation is that it restricts a practice that causes no harm to anyone, and that everyone partaking must willingly consent to. Objectively, that’s bad legislation, no matter what your political leanings. It flies in the face of limited government. But it becomes more and more clear every day that conservatives are all about small government until they can exploit big government for their own aims.
- ANDREW: The article goes into some of the implications of this bill for members of the LGBT community, but let’s actually broaden that thought experiment a bit. Any woman who wears a pair of pants and recounts to a friend the date she had last night could be in violation. Or a man wearing a kilt and performing a traditional Scottish dance, witnessed by someone who didn’t have the right context but DID have the phone number to report these so-called drag shows.
- ANDREW: This is why it’s important to care about issues that don’t personally affect you– it’s very, very easy for you to suddenly be involved. If you’re paying attention, you’re at least more likely to notice when you’re on the edge of the spotlight.
- MIKE: Whether or not I approve of something, and whether or not it makes me uncomfortable, is not a justification for regulating it or outlawing it.
- MIKE: This is why rightwing groups calling themselves things like “The Freedom Caucus” are so irritating. It’s like a “Democratic People’s Republic”. If you have to put it in your name, it’s probably not true. The slogan for such groups should be, “Freedom for me, but not for thee.”
- In a Drought, California Is Watching Water Wash Out to Sea; By Ralph Vartabedian| NYTIMES.COM | Jan. 13, 2023, Updated 3:55 p.m. ET
- A century ago, Los Angeles built what is still widely considered one of the most sophisticated urban flood control systems in the world, designed to hold back waters from massive Pacific storms like the ones that have recently slammed the state.
- After a series of downpours over the past week dumped up to nine inches of rain on the San Gabriel Mountains, some 8.4 billion gallons were impounded behind 14 large dams, easing floods and building up valuable stores of water for the drier summer months ahead.
- But in a state that is weathering a crippling, multiyear drought, much larger streams of water — estimated at tens of billions of gallons — have been rushing in recent days straight into the Pacific Ocean, a devastating conundrum for a state whose future depends on holding on to any drop it can. …
- Now, the county is embarking on a radical and risky experiment to see if it can increase supply in a different way: a $300 million-per-year program that would build hundreds of small water capture projects over the next 30 to 50 years that could eventually retain as much water as the mountain dams. …
- Some hydrological experts say the new green approach to capturing more of Southern California’s rainfall will be expensive and may deliver less than expected. They said the region could also need some improvements in traditional heavy infrastructure, also under study, for capturing more mountain water.
- The program is a reflection of the desperate need for new sources of water in a state that tapped most of its easy supplies long ago, leaving tough choices that will affect future lifestyles, landscapes, the economy and public health. …
- After years of deadly drought, images of floodwaters rushing into the ocean as people watch helplessly has been a cruel irony. California long enjoyed abundant water after the 1849 Gold Rush sent easterners streaming into the state. But continued population growth, the emergence of the nation’s largest agriculture industry, increasingly tough environmental regulations and now climate change are leaving less and less slack in the system.
- Capturing water in extreme events like those this year is a colossal engineering, environmental and financial challenge, experts say. Even with the planned improvements, water supplies are going to get tighter for major users: the environment, the public and agriculture. …
- Until last month, California’s major reservoirs in the Sierra Nevada were far below normal levels, but by Thursday, the gap had significantly closed. Some are now above average, though Shasta Dam, the largest, was still at 72 percent of its average and Oroville Dam, the second largest, was at 90 percent. …
- [Said Jay Lund, director of the Center for Watershed Sciences at the University of California, Davis,] Constructing dams to ensure no water is lost during big storm events in Southern California like the present ones would be financially unbearable, Mr. Lund said, comparing it to building freeways with so much capacity that traffic jams would never occur. In the Jan. 9 storm alone, public works engineers estimate, 18 billion gallons of water went into the ocean from the Los Angeles River. …
- Across California, water capture has been a mixed picture: Some rivers run wild into the Pacific, while every drop is captured in others. The same is true of groundwater, but lawmakers in 2014 passed a landmark groundwater management law that is being implemented that will prohibit unlimited drawdowns of aquifers.
- The new water capture effort in Los Angeles County was prompted not just by water shortages but by a series of environmental lawsuits that sought to stop pollution of the coast with contaminated runoff — the aim of the new system would be not only capturing runoff but cleaning it. The effort, known as the Safe Clean Water Program, got a slow start. …
- [Mark Pestrella, executive director of Los Angeles County Public Works said the program is the largest and most technically advanced effort to undertake small water capture in the world, involving the most difficult terrain …
- Nowhere are the upcoming small-scale projects more important than in the Los Angeles River watershed, where they can prevent runoff into the river and theoretically recharge groundwater basins …
- MIKE: Over the years, I’ve run across articles expressing concern that fracking might contribute to drought. Fracking often uses surface or ground water that might otherwise be available for human and agricultural uses and pumps it deep into the ground where it becomes divorced from the normal hydrological cycle of water recycling.
- ANDREW: The California droughts are some of the strongest arguments for modifying human behavior to fit the environment I’ve seen. Lawns and golf courses may be nice for property values, but they don’t do much, and they use a whole lot of water in a state that doesn’t have enough. I’m not saying replacing every lawn with plants native to that region would end the drought, but I bet it’d help.
- ANDREW: The situation in California is also, as the article focuses on, an argument for more infrastructure spending. Undoubtedly some of these dams aren’t working as efficiently as they could because they’re aging, and all parts eventually fail. The smaller water capture projects being funded may very well help ease the current situation, but they could do a lot more if they didn’t also have to pick up slack from tired old dams. Keeping existing infrastructure in good working order is just as important as expanding.
- REFERENCE: Fracking is depleting water supplies in America’s driest areas, report shows — THEGUARDIAN.COM, Suzanne Goldenberg, US environment correspondent (@suzyji), Wed 5 Feb 2014
- REFERENCE: Scientists warn fracking could cause water shortages after usage shoots up by 800% in parts of US; ‘Water could very soon become a limiting factor for the industry’ — By Josh Gabbatiss, Science Correspondent | INDEPENDENT.CO.UK | Wednesday 15 August 2018 20:13
- REFERENCE: Why it’s wrong to use the California drought to attack fracking — By Chris Mooney | WASHINGTONPOST.COM | April 13, 2015 at 12:48 p.m. EDT
- Study suggests US freshwater fish highly contaminated with ‘forever chemicals’; by Sharon Udasin | THEHILL.COM/POLICY | 01/17/23 12:01 AM ET
- Eating just one serving of freshwater fish each year could have the same effect as drinking water heavily polluted with “forever chemicals” for an entire month, a new study finds.
- The equivalent monthlong amount of water would be contaminated at levels 2,400 times greater than what’s recommended by the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) drinking water health advisories, according to the study, published Tuesday in Environmental Research.
- The research added that locally caught freshwater fish are far more polluted than commercial catches with per- and polyfluorinated substances (PFAS) — so-called forever chemicals that are notorious for their persistence in the body and the environment.
- PFAS are key ingredients in jet fuel firefighting foam, industrial discharge and many household products, including certain types of food packaging. For decades, they have leached into drinking water supplies while also contaminating irrigated crops and fish that inhabit local waterways.
- Fish consumption has long been identified as a route of exposure to PFAS, according to the study. Researchers first identified such contamination in catfish that inhabited the Tennessee River in 1979.
- “Food has always been kind of the hypothesis of how most people are exposed to PFAS compounds,” corresponding author David Andrews, a senior scientist at the Environmental Working Group, told The Hill.
- But Tuesday’s study is the first analysis to connect U.S. fish consumption to blood levels of PFAS, while also comparing PFAS levels in freshwater fish with those in commercial seafood samples, the authors explained.
- To draw their conclusions, the researchers evaluated the presence of different types of PFAS in 501 fish fillet samples, collected across the U.S. from 2013 to 2015. …
- While the samples included many types of forever chemicals — of which there are thousands — the biggest contributor to total PFAS levels was the compound known as PFOS, responsible for about 74 percent of the total, the researchers found. …
- “The extent that PFAS has contaminated fish is staggering,” first author Nadia Barbo, a graduate student at Duke University, said in a statement. “There should be a single health protective fish consumption advisory for freshwater fish across the country.”
- Although scientists might not know precisely how people are being exposed to PFAS, the study “clearly indicates that for people who consume freshwater fish even very infrequently, it is likely a significant source of their exposure,” Andrews said. …
- Some commercially caught fish may be less contaminated because they are grown in controlled aquaculture environments, Andrews explained. Meanwhile, large-scale ocean fishing often occurs farther offshore, where PFAS pollution would be more diluted, he added.
- Andrews acknowledged, however, that the data on commercially caught fish is much more recent than the freshwater contamination figures.
- He also recognized that with the industrial phaseout of PFOS production, the pollution “levels in rivers and streams do seem to be decreasing, which is important.” …
- High fish consumption — eating one or more fish meal per week — is typical among anglers, individuals living along coasts or lakes, communities for which fishing is culturally important and immigrants who hail from countries where fish is a dietary staple, the authors noted.
- The researchers therefore characterized exposure to PFAS in freshwater fish as “a textbook case of environmental injustice” in which certain communities are “inordinately harmed.”
- Contamination of this food source particularly “threatens those who cannot afford to purchase commercial seafood,” the authors stressed in a statement accompanying the study. …
- ANDREW: It’s not enough to just put a health advisory out. Many of the communities disproportionately impacted by this problem won’t have a viable alternative to eating freshwater fish so frequently. Remote and Native communities often struggle with a lack of access to grocery stores, and those that can visit a grocery store often have to pay hugely inflated prices for essential goods, not to mention anything that can be spun as a “luxury”.
- ANDREW: The federal government and state governments should be taking more action to ensure that communities like this have a steady supply of food, distributed at a number of locations around the community, at prices that are at least comparable to what people in other, sufficiently-served areas pay, if not lower prices that reflect the average income of the people in those communities. Then people can choose to avoid freshwater fish for their own health.
- Here are the 10 states with the least healthy populations; by Alejandra O’Connell-Domenech | THEHILL.COM | Jan. 17, 2023
- [According to a new Forbes Health survey,] here are the 10 Least Healthy States in the country:
- West Virginia
- Mississippi
- Kentucky
- Alabama
- Arkansas
- Tennessee
- Louisiana
- Oklahoma
- South Carolina
- Ohio
- MIKE: I only bring up this story because I was surprised that Texas wasn’t among these bottom 10 States. In fact, by the standards used in this study, Texas is only the 32nd least healthy state. Put another way, Texas is near the top of the bottom half of the least healthy states. Yay?
- ANDREW: I don’t think it’s a coincidence that nine out of ten of these states are Republican strongholds. The mission of conservative politics is to reduce collective wellbeing as much as possible. Though I do wonder how exactly this ranking defined “health”, because I’m sure including reproductive health in that definition won’t have helped these states’ rankings.
- [According to a new Forbes Health survey,] here are the 10 Least Healthy States in the country:
- Almost half of top foreign-policy experts think Russia will become a failed state or break up by 2033, according to a new survey; Joshua Zitser | BUSINESSINSIDER.COM | Jan 9, 2023, 7:23 AM. The Ukraine war highlights the possibility of “internal problems” in Russia, said one author.
- Nearly half of top foreign-policy experts think Russia will become a failed state or break up by 2033, according to a new survey by the Atlantic Council think tank.
- The Financial Times was the first to report on the findings, which seem to suggest that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine could have costly political consequences back home.
- The survey found that 46% of the 167 experts surveyed, who come from academic, non-profit, governmental, and consultancy backgrounds, anticipate Russia’s collapse within the next decade.
- The survey found that 40% of those surveyed foresee Russia breaking up internally within the next 10 years because of “revolution, civil war, political disintegration,” or another reason.
- Just over a fifth (21%) considered Russia to be the most likely country to become a failed state within the next decade, more than double the next highest choice: Afghanistan. …
- Western officials believe that Putin has been weakened by his decision to invade Ukraine, with the Pentagon labeling the war a “massive strategic failure.”
- Russia has drained its annual budget, been hit by sanctions, and suffered unexpected battlefield losses over the past 10 months.
- A British government source said that Russia could take up to 30 years to rebuild its economic and military strength, according to The Times of London.
- The experts surveyed by the Atlantic Council also anticipate major developments elsewhere in the world.
- The survey found that 70% of respondents agreed with a statement that China could invade Taiwan within the next decade, echoing a top US admiral’s March 2021 warning that Chinese military action could be coming by 2027.
- ANDREW: It’s important to note that the flip side of this headline is “over half of Western foreign-policy experts do not believe Russia will fail by 2033”. I’m inclined to agree with the majority here. I think there are significant changes ahead for Russia, and Putin and the United Russia party in particular, and that the difficulty Russia has had in invading Ukraine will be a significant catalyst event for that. But I think conservatism in Russia has been heading for a reckoning for a long time.
- ANDREW: I personally hope it leads to political change that sees Russian politics be led by a socialist movement that is committed to tolerance and individual rights and dignity, international restraint, and the wellbeing of the masses rather than the excessive benefit of a wealthy few, but also isn’t going to simply roll over and accede to any demand Western nations make. But at this point, who knows what might happen. Putin as a political figure may be in trouble, and maybe even his party, but there are other conservatives who will be ready to step up to try and put Russia at the top of the capitalist world.
- MIKE: Prognostication is always iffy at best, so I basically agree with Andrew on this point, but fragmentation doesn’t have to mean, say, Siberia breaking away or being taken over by China. It could mean smaller, restive republics like Chechnya successfully achieving independence.
- MIKE: There have been predictions of the United States breaking apart by 2050.
- MIKE: All things change, and not necessarily for the better. As for predictions … We’re still waiting for flying cars, but we have wrist radios.
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