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- An educated electorate is a prerequisite for a democracy.
- You’re entitled to your own opinion, but not your own facts.
Except for timely election info, the extensive list of voting resources will now be at the end.
- March 5, 2024 Primary Elections: com
- Early Vote Centers will be open from Tuesday, February 20, through Friday, March 1. (7 a.m. – 7 p.m. Monday through Saturday, 12 noon – 7 p.m. on Sunday).
- Vote Centers will accept voters from 7 a.m. – 7 p.m. on Election Day, Tuesday, March 5.
- As of Tuesday, Jan. 16, sample ballots are not yet available for the primaries, but when they are: Visit our “What’s on my Ballot?” page and enter your name or address to see all the contests and candidates you are eligible to vote on! (You can bring handwritten notes or printed sample ballots to the voting booth; just be sure to take it with you when you leave.)
- The deadline to apply for a mail ballot is February 23. Click here for the application. Please fill it out, print it, and mail it to our office before the deadline.
- We will have a joint primary this year | COM | Posted on January 16, 2024 by Charles Kuffner (TAGGED: Bexar County, Cindy Siegel, Collin County, Commissioners Court, Dallas County, Denton County, Election 2024, electronic voting machines, Fort Bend County, Harris County, Harris County Clerk, Hidalgo County, Paul Bettencourt, primaries, Tarrant County, Teneshia Hudspeth, Texas, Texas Legislature, Travis County, voting centers)
- KUFF comments: “This solves a problem we had only begun to realize we had.”
- Kuff quoted from the Houston Chronicle: “Harris County Republicans and Democrats plan to hold a joint election during the upcoming March primaries after years of the parties conducting separate contests, County Clerk Teneshia Hudspeth announced Sunday.
- “Although the measure must still be approved by the Commissioners Court, voters who want to cast their ballots in either of the parties’ primary elections on March 5 can do so in common precincts with the same voting equipment in a first for the county, Hudspeth said.
- “March’s joint contests should mean a smoother Election Day for voters. …
- “The agreement was spurred by Senate Bill 924, a newly enacted state law that requires Harris County to open significantly more polling sites than it historically has on primary day. Hudspeth, the county’s chief elections officer, sounded the alarm to the Commissioners Court this month and warned that her office would not have enough workers or machines to run separate primaries without facing major hurdles….
- “Cindy Siegel, the Harris County Republican Party chair, argued after Hudspeth’s comments to the Commissioners Court that the county’s history of running split elections should not be changed.
- “But in a statement Sunday, Siegel said the party agreed to hold a joint primary election in Harris County for the first time after reviewing SB 947 and consulting the Texas Secretary of State’s elections division.
- “This decision was not made lightly, but … we had no other option,” she said. “We will work with the clerk’s office to have a successful primary election, and we plan on maintaining as much control over our election as possible through ongoing negotiations with all stakeholders over the next couple of days.””
- KUFF comments in part: Lots of background material on this one: Here’s the County Clerk press release announcing the joint primary. Here’s Commissioner Adrian Garcia’s press release calling out Republicans for not being willing to contribute to the solution, which was from last week, around the time that Chron story in which Clerk Hudspeth explained the issue was published. Here’s SB924, which I’ll get into in a minute. …
- The Republicans in the previous story sniffed that this was the fault of the Democratic-controlled Commissioners Court for not buying enough machines. I would agree that we should buy more of them now, but this law was just passed and only went into effect on September 1. It’s not like we can just order new machines from Amazon and have them up and running immediately – among other things, they need to be certified first. I don’t know what the SOS said to Cindy Siegel, but it got her on board with the joint primary solution, so we have that going for us. …
- MIKE: I actually think that joint primaries are a great idea in terms of efficiency and cost savings. If the State and County Republican Parties can just get past the idea of not doing anything in cooperation with Democrats, this may be a ‘best practice’ for the future.
- ANDREW: Yeah, now just invite the Greens and Libertarians to take part as well and we might take a step towards an actually pluralistic political system.
- MIKE: As I recall, the Greens don’t have primaries because they can’t pay for them. This is not the fault of the county or the state.
- ANDREW: The Democrats and Republicans don’t pay for their primaries, either. Chapter 173 of the Texas Election Code provides for state and county funding of the “expenses incurred by a political party in connection with a primary election.” Many, if not all, states around the US have similar provisions to publicly-fund primary elections and caucuses.
- ANDREW: Now, this code does specify that such funding can only be spent on “primary elections”. The Green and Libertarian parties are required to use nominating conventions instead, as they don’t meet the minimum vote share requirement to hold primary elections. This means the law as it is would presumably prevent third parties from joining in on Harris’s combined primary election — though one might argue they should be allowed to participate because of the similar legal function of primaries and nominating conventions.
- ANDREW: So, as is so often the case, laws written for a world with competitive elections are the obstacle to competitive elections. If those vote share minimums were reduced, third parties could hold primaries just like their competition. Voters would be familiar with the process and — I think — more comfortable participating, improving their choices and making US democracy a little stronger.
- MIKE: Looking at that Election Code link, this provision is from 1985. I guess my knowledge is old, like the rest of me.
- Tribal Leaders Support Keeping Statue of William Penn in Philadelphia’s Welcome Park; By Native News Online Staff | NATIVENEWSONLINE.NET | January 15, 2024
- Tribal representatives revealed that removing a statue of William Penn, a British colonist known as the founder of the state of Pennsylvania, from Philidephia’s Welcome Park is not a priority.
- Removing the statue was proposed in the National Parks Service’s (NPD) renovation of the plaza, scheduled to be completed by 2026 for the 250th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence.
- In accordance with the National Historic Preservation Act, NPS consulted with representatives of the Haudenosaunee, the Delaware Nation, the Delaware Tribe of Indians, the Shawnee Tribe, and the Eastern Shawnee Tribe of Oklahoma, whose ancestors were displaced by the Pennsylvania colony.
- Penn arrived in present-day Philadelphia in 1682 after being granted the charter for a huge swath of land by King Charles II, land that the English had wrested from Dutch colonialists.
- Jeremy Johnson, director of cultural education for the Delaware Tribe of Indians, told NBC Philadelphia that removing the state wasn’t a major point of discussion when NPS officials and tribal representatives met to plan the renovation over video last year. Instead, tribal representatives envisioned an exhibit in the park highlighting the culture, history, traditions and perceptions of the Native Americans who had lived there for thousands of years before Penn arrived.
- “We do still speak highly of William Penn,” Johnson said. But tribal representatives “were really just focusing on our culture and our history and that, in a way, he was an important part of it, but … it was a small interaction compared to our overall history.”
- That plan would replace a timeline of Penn’s life and legacy on one wall — with such titles as “gentleman,” “Quaker,” “proprietor” and “friend of Indians” — with new panels featuring indigenous history. The plan also involved adding native plants and trees and circular benches to make it more welcoming, Johnson said.
- Ben Barnes, chief of the Shawnee Tribe, told NBC Philadelphia that he objects to removing the statue and pointed out that of the colonists of the time, Penn was known as an ally to Native Americans. …
- NBC [Philadelphia] reports that historians say Penn’s willingness to negotiate with Native Americans distinguished him from previous colonizers in the Chesapeake and New England, where early colonial regimes were more willing to use armed force in bloody confrontations to expand their settlements. However, Penn’s mission still led to the dispossession of natives, historians say. …
- MIKE: It’s actually comforting in some ways to know that there were White colonist leaders that the native tribes regard well, if not necessarily highly. Probably the highest compliment they can offer was that William Penn negotiated with them and kept his promises as long as he was able, throughout his life. Too bad our history doesn’t reflect more of that.
- ANDREW: It may be too late to change our history, but we can at least balance it with the indigenous perspective through projects like the proposed history wall. I hope the renovation happens exactly as the tribal representatives envision it.
- E.I. Goes Quiet; By Sarah Kessler | NYTIMES.COM | Jan. 13, 2024 / Updated 6:38 p.m. ET
- Joelle Emerson’s D.E.I. consultancy, Paradigm, works with more than 500 companies. The growing backlash against D.E.I., she said, “is usually the first agenda item on every call.”
- Critics of D.E.I., or diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives, have tried to scapegoat it for everything from regional bank failures to a panel’s ripping off a Boeing plane in flight last week. That debate gathered pace this month as three famous billionaires clashed over D.E.I.’s merits on social media: Elon Musk and Pershing Square’s chief executive, Bill Ackman, have attacked D.E.I. efforts as “racist,” while the investor Mark Cuban argued that they were “good for business.”
- The economy and political landscape have changed since 2020, when companies hired D.E.I. officers in droves amid a racial reckoning after the murder of George Floyd. Recently, D.E.I. programs have become less visible. Over the past two years, hiring for D.E.I. roles has plunged and the number of investor calls mentioning D.E.I. has dropped.
- That raises a question: Have companies pulled back on D.E.I.? Or have they just changed how they approach and talk about it?
- E.I. is operating in a new environment. Last year, the Supreme Court struck down affirmative action in college admissions, setting off a wave of similar lawsuits and legal threats against company diversity programs. And while polling indicates that most Americans believe it’s good for companies to focus on diversity, equity and inclusion, there’s a wide partisan divide: In a Pew survey last year, 78 percent of workers who identified as Democrats agreed with this sentiment, while just 30 percent of Republican workers thought the same.
- The pushback may have prompted a rebranding, according to D.E.I. professionals. At some companies, what used to be called a D.E.I. survey may now be advertised as a culture survey, Emerson said. Or management training once framed as part of D.E.I. efforts may instead be discussed as a course to help managers deliver performance reviews more effectively. “This term seems to be pretty widely misunderstood in ways that I don’t think any of us realized until the past couple of months,” Emerson said of D.E.I. She added that it might make sense for companies to “be far more specific about exactly what it is that we’re talking about.”
- Some corporate D.E.I. programs now include a broader variety of groups, said Porter Braswell, the founder of 2045 Studio, a membership network for professionals of color. “I think instead of saying this is a program for Black employees,” he said, “it would be more like, ‘This is a program to increase the equity of promotion rates across the firm, and everybody is included to apply to be part of this program, but will play different roles.’”
- Some companies now talk about “I.E.D.” instead of “D.E.I.,” placing the emphasis on inclusion.
- But a plunge in D.E.I. job postings could signal a retreat. …
- Some see the decrease in job postings as a sign that companies have walked back their commitments to D.E.I. It shows that the surge in hiring of D.E.I. roles after Floyd’s murder “was performative at best,” said Misty Gaither, vice president of diversity, inclusion, equity and belonging at Indeed.
- Braswell of Jopwell added that many companies tried to offload all responsibility for changing company culture onto a couple of new hires — a strategy that predictably failed. “All those people are being fired, all those people are quitting, all those people are feeling burned out,” he said, adding, “The only way these cultures change to be more diverse, equitable and inclusive is if it is everybody’s job within the company.”
- There is also evidence that companies remain committed to D.E.I. In a survey released this week by the employment law firm Littler, only 1 percent of the 320 C-suite executives said they had significantly decreased their D.E.I. commitments in the past year, and 57 percent said they had expanded those efforts. …
- Does it matter how companies talk about D.E.I.? Executives have stopped discussing their sustainability efforts and using the term E.S.G., for environmental, social and corporate governance issues, as the topic has become more politicized. (BlackRock’s Larry Fink recently described “E.S.G.” as “entirely weaponized.”) When it comes to D.E.I., some professionals aren’t bothered by changes to branding as long as the work continues. “The end goals of these diversity initiatives and programs will not change,” Braswell said.
- To others, changing the words is itself a retreat. “We need to call it what it is,” said Gaither of Indeed. “The data says that all of these positive things happen when you have diversity, equity and inclusion. So we’re not going to mask it or call it something different.”
- MIKE: It’s amazing to me how good Conservatives are at weaponing words that the left uses as good things. Liberal was made into a dirty word, forcing Liberals to turn themselves into Progressives, which the Right hasn’t managed to weaponize quite so much. Food Stamps was something given to “Welfare queens”, in the course of turning “Welfare” into a dirty word and forcing Food Stamps to be called Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). In fact, derogation of food stamps has been so effective that com lists four synonyms: food coupon, government-issued stamps, meal ticket, and welfare aid. Note the absence of “Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP)” as a synonym.
- MIKE: Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and Medicare were turned into “Entitlements”, and the Left has not managed to make the term “Paid Benefits” a go-to frame, even among Liberals.
- MIKE: I once had a whole discussion as a caller on KPFT with a show that was using the Rightwing frame of “chain migration” instead of the Progressive “family unification”.
- MIKE: In other words, Rightwing framing is so effective that even Liberals end up using their terminology as the defining description.
- MIKE: I think this is partly due to the Right’s unity when it comes to messaging, using their preferred slur over and over in the media. But this is obviously also a perennial media problem of being too lazy to challenge them, as well as buying into the Right’s framing.
- ANDREW: This ties in with the right’s propensity to just openly lie and misrepresent ideas, policies, even history, no matter how well-documented and easily fact-checked those concepts are. Ms. Emerson says in the article that DEI as a term is “misunderstood”; I would argue that it is more accurate to say it’s “disunderstood” (as in, “disinformation”).
- ANDREW: Assertions that equity programs are about punishing people who belong to groups that haven’t faced discrimination, like white people, while rewarding those who have, like Black people, are patently incorrect but so prevalent because the right wing keeps insisting that they’re true. Individual people may know that these claims are false or not, but the people with the most reach who continue promoting the claims certainly know that they’re lying. They just don’t care.
- ANDREW: They know that these programs — though often insufficient — do provide some power back to communities who it has been stolen from, and that disadvantages conservatives who are the ones that rely the most on power-stealing. So the right demonizes these programs and maligns the language used to describe them in order to make them unpopular and slow or stop them from being put in place. It’s the same playbook we’ve seen them use thousands of times. Consider how many people still consider abortion to be “baby-killing”, or universal healthcare to be “socialism”. DEI is just their latest target.
- MIKE: Andrew and I actually had an off-air discussion about Socialism versus Social Welfare, and I’m somewhat persuaded to his position. See reference links at the bottom of this story.
- ANDREW: My point is that I think effectively implementing DEI programs is going to require not only correcting the disinformation around the concept, it will require identifying such statements as disinformation and explaining the motives behind them. Doing so will both allow people to more easily accept DEI by resolving the conflict in their heads between the two ways that it’s presented, and inoculate them against future attempts at right-wing “disunderstanding”. That inoculation is the only way to make the tactic ineffective, and thus the only way to stop it.
- MIKE: I might also point out as an aside that “IED” isn’t much better, since it’s an acronym for Improvised Explosive Device”. It still amazes me that KIA was never panned as an acronym for “Killed In Action”. FORD never was an acronym for anything, but people lambasted them with ones they made up.
- MIKE: It just goes to show that you can’t always figure out how terms manage to catch on. Although Republican pollster Frank Luntz has been really good at it for decades.
- REFERENCE: Socialism — From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
- REFERENCE: Are Social Security Benefits a Form of Socialism? — INVESTOPEDIA.COM
- OPINION — Why The World Is Betting Against American Democracy; Ambassadors to Washington warn that the GOP-Democratic divide is endangering America’s national security. By Nahal Toosi | POLITICO.COM | 01/15/2024, 06:43 AM EST (TAGS: Joe Biden, Joe Biden 2024, Foreign Policy, Donald Trump, Donald Trump 2024, NATO, Partisanship, Ukraine, Russia’s War on Ukraine)
- When I asked the European ambassador to talk to me about America’s deepening partisan divide, I expected a polite brushoff at best. Foreign diplomats are usually loath to discuss domestic U.S. politics.
- Instead, the ambassador unloaded for an hour, warning that America’s poisonous politics are hurting its security, its economy, its friends and its standing as a pillar of democracy and global stability.
- The U.S. is a “fat buffalo trying to take a nap” as hungry wolves approach, the envoy mused. “I can hear those Champagne bottle corks popping in Moscow — like it’s Christmas every fucking day.”
- As voters cast ballots in the Iowa caucuses Monday, many in the United States see this year’s presidential election as a test of American democracy. But, in a series of conversations with a dozen current and former diplomats, I sensed that to many of our friends abroad, the U.S. is already failing that test.
- The diplomats are aghast that so many U.S. leaders let their zeal for partisan politics prevent the basic functions of government. It’s a major topic of conversations at their private dinners and gatherings. Many of those I talked to were granted anonymity to be as candid with me as they are with each other.
- For example, one former Arab ambassador who was posted in the U.S. during both Republican and Democratic administrations told me American politics have become so unhealthy that he’d turn down a chance to return. …
- Many of these conversations wouldn’t have happened a few months ago. There are rules, traditions and pragmatic concerns that discourage foreign diplomats from commenting on the internal politics of another country …
- But the contours of this year’s presidential campaign, a Congress that can barely choose a House speaker or keep the government open, and, perhaps above all, the U.S. debate on military aid for Ukraine have led some diplomats to drop their inhibitions. And while they were often hesitant to name one party as the bigger culprit, many of the examples they pointed to involved Republican members of Congress.
- As they vented their frustrations, I felt as if I was hearing from a group of people wishing they could stage an intervention for a friend hitting rock bottom. Their concerns don’t stem from mere altruism; they’re worried because America’s state of being affects their countries, too. …
- The diplomats focused much of their alarm on the U.S. debate over military aid to Ukraine — I was taken aback by how even some whose nations had little connection to Russia’s war raised the topic.
- In particular, they criticized the decision to connect the issue of Ukrainian aid and Israeli aid to U.S. border security. Not only did the move tangle a foreign policy issue with a largely domestic one, but border security and immigration also are topics about which the partisan fever runs unusually high, making it harder to get a deal. Immigration issues in particular are a problem many U.S. lawmakers have little incentive to actually solve because it robs them of a rallying cry on the campaign trail. …
- Diplomats from many European countries are especially unhappy.
- They remember how, when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, many Republicans downplayed concerns about the far-right fringe in their party that questioned what was then solid, bipartisan support. Now, as the debate over the aid unfolds, it seems the far-right is calling the shots.
- There’s a growing sense among foreign diplomats that moral or national security arguments — about defending a country unjustly invaded, deterring Russia, preventing a bigger war in Europe and safeguarding democracy — don’t work on the American far-right.
- Instead, some are stressing to U.S. lawmakers that funds for Ukraine are largely spent inside the United States, creating jobs and helping rebuild America’s defense industrial base (while having the side benefit of degrading the military of a major U.S. foe).
- “If this doesn’t make sense to the politicians, then what will?” the European ambassador asked. …
- When Republicans and Democrats strike deals, they love to say it shows the system works. But simply having a fractious, lengthy and seemingly unnecessary debate about a topic of global security can damage the perception of the U.S. as a reliable partner. …
- The current and former diplomats said their countries are more reluctant to sign deals with Washington because of the partisan divide. There’s worry that a new administration will abandon past agreements purely to appease rowdy electoral bases and not for legitimate national security reasons. The fate of the Iran nuclear deal was one example some mentioned.
- “Foreign relations is very much based on trust, and when you know that the person that is in front of you may not be there or might be followed by somebody that feels exactly the opposite way, what is your incentive to do long-term deals?” a former Latin American diplomat asked. …
- Some of the diplomats stressed they admire America — some attended college here. They acknowledged they don’t have some magical solution to the forces deepening its political polarization, from gerrymandered congressional districts to a fractured media landscape.
- They know the U.S. has had polarized moments in the past, from the mid-1800s to the Vietnam War, that affected its foreign policy.
- But they’re worried today’s U.S. political divisions could have lasting impact on an increasingly interconnected world.
- “The world does not have time for the U.S. to rebound back,” the former Asian ambassador said. “We’ve gone from a unipolar world that we’re familiar with from the 1990s into a multipolar world, but the key pole is still the United States. And if that key pole is not playing the role that we want the U.S. to do, you’ll see alternative forces coming up.”
- Russia’s diplomats, meanwhile, are among those delighting in the U.S. chaos (and fanning it). The Eastern European ambassador said the Russians had long warned their counterparts not to trust or rely on Washington. …
- So the world’s envoys are reconsidering how their governments can deal with this America for many years and presidents to come.
- Some predicted that a Republican win in November would mean their countries would have to become more transactional in their relationship with the United States instead of counting on it as a partner who’ll be there no matter what. Embassies already are beefing up their contacts among Republicans in case they win back the White House. …
- When I asked diplomats what advice they’d offer America’s politicians if they were free to do so, several said the same thing: Find a way to overcome your divisions, at least when it comes to issues that reverberate beyond U.S. borders. …
- MIKE: I saw this story quoted in a number of places online, so it’s had some impact.
- MIKE: There used to be a saying in post-WW2 American politics that was coined by Republican Senator Arthur Vandenburg: “Politics stops at the water’s edge.”
- MIKE: I think that many Republicans and most Democrats still agree with that in principle. But the Republican Party as an entity has gotten so stridently partisan that this idea formulated by a Republican has gotten lost. It’s made worse by their Rightwing extremists that actually prefer to get nothing useful done so that everything can be used as domestic political weapons.
- MIKE: This unhealthy and myopic internal political focus is one way that empires and nations die from inside or are destroyed from without.
- ANDREW: One might take from this article that for every voting citizen who appreciates their chance to change the course of their country, there’s a foreign diplomat worrying if their whole life’s work is about to fall through.
- In a Setback for Beijing, Taiwan Elects Lai Ching-te as President; Taiwan’s vice president, whose party has emphasized the island’s sovereignty, defeated an opposition party that favors reviving engagement with China. By Chris Buckley, Amy Chang Chien, John Liu and Damien Cave | NYTIMES.COM | Jan. 13, 2024 / Updated 6:12 p.m. ET
- The Taiwanese politician Lai Ching-te has for years been reviled by China’s Communist Party as a dangerous foe who, by its account, could drag the two sides into a war by pressing for full independence for his island democracy. Right up to Saturday, when millions of Taiwanese voted for their next president, an official Beijing news outlet warned that Mr. Lai could take Taiwan “on a path of no return.”
- Yet, despite China’s months of menacing warnings of a “war or peace” choice for Taiwan’s voters, Mr. Lai was elected president.
- Lai, currently Taiwan’s vice president, secured 40 percent of the votes in the election, giving his Democratic Progressive Party, or D.P.P., a third term in a row in the presidential office.
- (MIKE: Another case for ranked choice voting. Going on with the story …)
- No party has achieved more than two successive terms since Taiwan began holding direct, democratic elections for its president in 1996. …
- Addressing his supporters at the event, Mr. Lai called for unity, while also pledging his commitment to defending Taiwan’s identity. “Between democracy and authoritarianism, we choose to stand on the side of democracy,” Mr. Lai said. “This is what this election campaign means to the world.”
- The vote drew a strong voter turnout of 72 percent, including many who had flown home from abroad. …
- (MIKE: I know of one family that is visiting relatives in Taiwan. It now occurs to me that they went home partly for this election.)
- Many of Mr. Lai’s supporters described feeling hopeful that he would protect Taiwan’s sovereignty, and do so carefully. …
- For Mr. Lai, now, though, comes the even harder task of governing at a dangerous and potentially divisive time for Taiwan.
- Lai faces a ring of challenges when he takes office in May. China’s response to his victory will be the most pressing and important, but far from the only one. Mr. Lai will also confront a domestic political scene notably less hospitable than the one that Taiwan’s current president, Tsai Ing-wen, has enjoyed for her eight years in office. His party lost its majority in the legislature, posing a challenge to his ability to advance his agenda. …
- Lai is not the reckless firebrand that Beijing has depicted, say Taiwanese politicians who know him; nor is war over Taiwan imminent or inevitable, say many officials and experts. Mr. Lai campaigned on a theme of continuity with the policies of Ms. Tsai, who has sought to build up Taiwan’s military defenses and deepen relations with the United States and other democracies, while avoiding a total rupture with China.
- But even if Mr. Lai sticks faithfully to that course, he may face a searing test of his political and diplomatic skills to keep Taiwan secure and united against deepening pressure from China. Mr. Lai will be Taiwan’s president during a time when, some U.S. officials have warned, China will be increasingly ready to try to seize or subdue Taiwan, which it sees as its lost territory, by armed force.
- In its first response to Mr. Lai’s victory, the Chinese government office for Taiwan affairs said the election outcome showed that the “Democratic Progressive Party does not represent mainstream opinion on the island,” the official Xinhua news agency reported. The statement indicated that Beijing would reach out to other Taiwanese political parties and groups, as it already does, “to encourage cross-strait exchanges and cooperation.” …
- In the coming months, Beijing may press Mr. Lai through trade restrictions on Taiwanese products, poaching one of Taiwan’s few remaining diplomatic allies, or through military exercises. China will be studying what he says when he is inaugurated as president in May. …
- Taiwan is also facing uncertainty in its relations with the United States. The United States has vowed continued support for Taiwan, including weapons sales, in the face of pressure from China. But Washington is also burdened with the wars in Ukraine and Middle East. The U.S. presidential election in November could bring more changes for Taiwan.
- Lai must also deal with a more complicated and divided domestic political landscape than the current president, Tsai Ing-wen. Mr. Lai’s two chief rivals scored sizable shares of the vote, a fact that may weaken his aura of authority. Ms. Tsai, who must step down after two terms as president, won over 50 percent of the votes in 2016 and 2020. …
- MIKE: In a callback to our previous story about allies losing confidence in the US, there was this:
- … Jessica Chou, 25, said she thought that the D.P.P. had pushed Taiwan too close to Washington, and that she hoped the next leader would keep a distance from both the global powers.
- “I’m worried about China, but I also think that we can’t always rely on the United States,” Ms. Chou said … . “I hope that Taiwan can find its own strategically advantageous position.”
- Lai’s party lost its majority in Taiwan’s 113-member legislature, called the Legislative Yuan. No party commanded a majority, which would require at least 57 seats. The Nationalist Party will hold 52 seats, one more than the D.P.P., and the Taiwan People’s Party holds a potential powerful swing vote with eight seats. Two other lawmakers have no party affiliation.
- Noting the reversals to his party, Mr. Lai told reporters that he would reach out to opposition parties to get their ideas for dealing with Taiwan’s problems. …
- MIKE: When I was growing up and going to elementary school in 1958, I remember learning in current events about what is now called the Second Taiwan Strait Crisis. The Communist Chinese were shelling the islands of Quemoy and Matsu in an ongoing effort to retake Taiwan.
- MIKE: In the recent aftermath of the Korean War (which has still not technically ended), if I had been 10 years older, I would have been smart enough to be scared.
- MIKE: This week, I turn 73. I’m too old to draft in time of war, but I’m informed enough to keep the Taiwan issue in the backburner of my mind, and there are enough circumstances converging to keep me worried.
- MIKE: China’s working- and military-aged population is peaking ahead of a drastic demographic contraction. China’s economy is having problems that may be long-term rather than short- or medium-term, and the Chinese government knows it. China has been on a major military build-up that will be harder to sustain if the economy significantly contracts.
- MIKE: At the same time, the US military is in a rebuilding phase. Old equipment, especially things like ships and aircraft, are being retired in part to help pay for their replacements. In terms of total ships and aircraft, the US will likely be contracting until about the year 2030.
- MIKE: The US is also depleting its strategic reserves of equipment and ammunition due to wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, creating current strain on supply chains to replace those items. This does not include strain created by US military deployments related to these wars.
- MIKE: If you charted these kinds of things on a graph, they create an unhealthy incentive for China to take some sort of military action regarding Taiwan between 2025 and 2030. They may come to feel it’s a “now or never” situation during that period.
- ANDREW: The drums of war will certainly beat in Beijing. Whether the leaders of the People’s Republic will resist their temptation or not remains to be seen. For the sake of the people of China, the people of Taiwan — hell, for all our sakes — I hope they do resist.
- Flush With Investment, New U.S. Factories Face a Familiar Challenge; Worries are growing in Washington that a flood of Chinese products could put new American investments in clean energy and high-tech factories at risk. By Ana Swanson and Jim Tankersley | NYTIMES.COM | Jan. 15, 2024 / Updated 4:01 p.m. ET. Ana Swanson and Jim Tankersley are economics reporters in Washington who are closely tracking the impact of Biden’s industrial policies.
- The Biden administration has begun pumping more than $2 trillion into U.S. factories and infrastructure, investing huge sums to try to strengthen American industry and fight climate change.
- But the effort is facing a familiar threat: a surge of low-priced products from China. That is drawing the attention of President Biden and his aides, who are considering new protectionist measures to make sure American industry can compete against Beijing.
- As S. factories spin up to produce electric vehicles, semiconductors and solar panels, China is flooding the market with similar goods, often at significantly lower prices than American competitors. A similar influx is also hitting the European market.
- American executives and officials argue that China’s actions violate global trade rules. The concerns are spurring new calls in America and Europe for higher tariffs on Chinese imports, potentially escalating what is already a contentious economic relationship between China and the West.
- The Chinese imports mirror a surge that [previously] undercut the Obama administration’s efforts to seed domestic solar manufacturing after the 2008 financial crisis and drove some American start-ups out of business. The administration retaliated with tariffs on solar equipment from China, sparking a dispute at the World Trade Organization.
- Some Biden officials are concerned that Chinese products could again threaten the survival of U.S. factories when the government is spending huge sums to jump-start domestic manufacturing. Administration officials appear likely to raise tariffs on electric vehicles and other strategic goods from China, as part of a review of the levies that former [Donald Trump] imposed on China four years ago, according to people familiar with the matter. That review … could finally conclude in the next few months.
- Congress is also agitating for more protections. In a Jan. 5 letter to the Biden administration, bipartisan members of a House committee expressed concerns about China flooding the United States with semiconductors. Lawmakers asked whether the government could establish a new “component” tariff that would tax a chip imported inside another finished product.
- That followed a November letter in which members of the same committee advised the Biden administration to consider a new trade case over China’s electric vehicle subsidies, which could result in additional tariffs on cars.
- MIKE: Ironically, this is similar to a current European Union complaint against the US. Continuing with the story …
- Katherine Tai, the U.S. trade representative, told the lawmakers that she shared concerns about China’s practices in the electric vehicle industry, according to a Jan. 4 letter that was shared with The New York Times. Ms. Tai told the committee that the administration needed “to work with U.S. companies and unions to identify and deploy additional responses to help overcome China’s state-directed industrial targeting in this sector.”
- The United States has maintained tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of Chinese products over the past five years, viewing that as a way to offset Beijing’s ability to undercut American manufacturers by selling cheaper products in the United States. Mr. Biden has tried to further help American companies with billions in subsidies intended to boost U.S. manufacturing of clean energy technology like solar panels and electric vehicles along with semiconductors. …
- Yet Chinese industrial policy spending still far outstrips that of the United States. Facing an economic slowdown and a gradual bursting of the property bubble, the Chinese government has recently redoubled efforts to promote exports and support its factory sector.
- Beijing is particularly focused on investment in high-tech products with strategic importance, like electric vehicles and semiconductors, said Ilaria Mazzocco, a senior fellow in Chinese business and economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank. …
- Some of China’s success stems from its larger market — which gives Chinese firms the scale and opportunity to hone their products — along with its vast pool of talented engineers. China sold about 7 million all-electric vehicles last year, for example, compared with around 1.2 million units in the United States.
- The Chinese government has said it competes fairly and described U.S. trade measures as protectionist.
- But Wendy Cutler, the vice president at the Asia Society Policy Institute and a former trade negotiator, said China’s clean energy and semiconductor industries had received a lot of state assistance, in the form of tax credits, access to cheaper energy and equity infusions.
- …[She said,] “As Chinese companies avail themselves of these types of systems, it just leads to overcapacity.”
- In the United States, when the supply of solar panels exceeds demand, factories idle their lines, lay off workers and try to bring capacity back into alignment, said Michael Carr, the executive director of the Solar Energy Manufacturers for America Coalition, which represents U.S.-based solar manufacturers. …
- China invested more than $130 billion in the solar sector last year, and is positioned to bring enough wafer, cell and panel capacity online this year to meet annual global demand through 2032, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie, an energy research firm.
- Late last month, two U.S. firms mounted a legal challenge to a temporary moratorium that the Biden administration had placed on tariffs on imported solar panels.
- China’s hefty investments in semiconductors … are also worrying companies investing in new U.S. chip facilities. …
- MIKE: There’s quite a bit more in the article.
- MIKE: I’m not blind to some of the ironies in this story. The Biden administration has passed laws with various tax and funding incentives to rebuild US industrial capacity and competitiveness in strategically important industries. But this was done after over 40 years of mostly Republican incentives for offshoring many US companies and industries.
- MIKE: The US has not always been a free market global trader. That mostly started after WW2, at least in part as a way to rebuild allied countries, and to counter the appeals of Socialism and Communism in those countries.
- MIKE: In fact, up through the early-mid-20th century, the US built its economy by restricting imports of many foreign goods in order to develop domestic industries.
- MIKE: The US is a free trading nation within its borders, but the planet Earth is not a single country where it’s fine to let different places specialize in particular industries. For better or worse — and this alone is always a great topic for debate … But for better or worse, the world is made up of countries, and the countries have strategic self-interests. International trade has many values, and transcontinental trade goes back thousands of years. But as with most things, a healthy balance must be struck.
- ANDREW: It would be fine to let different places in the world specialize in different things if we could all put the long-term good of our entire species over our own short-term enrichment. Unfortunately, we can’t do that yet.
- ANDREW: I have to wonder how the economic crisis China is currently experiencing and the demographic crisis that China is expected to face within the next few decades may impact this situation. If the state doesn’t have the money to continue subsidizing these sectors, production and expansion should slow. That may help US manufacturers. If the nation doesn’t have the people to work at all of the machines producing the solar panels and semiconductors, the same thing should happen.
- ANDREW: I still think there is a chance that China could avoid or at least minimize the damage from these crises, but I think that would require reducing economic spending and increasing social services spending, which would also slow the production and expansion of these sectors in China. The question is, would that strategy result in a softer-enough landing for China’s solar and semiconductor industries to ultimately put them in a better position than they would be in if China didn’t try to compensate for these crises, and would that mean less ground would be available for the US and other nations to make up?
- ANDREW: And, of course, when might these crises start impacting these sectors, and for how long? There are a lot of questions here that only time can answer. All any of us can do right now is hope for the least-worst outcome for all involved.
- After 17 Years, China Set To Lose ‘Top Spot’ As No. 1 Exporter To US; China- US Trade War Benefits Others; By Ashish Dangwal | EURASIANTIMES.COM | January 13, 2024
- In a seismic shift in global trade dynamics, China is poised to lose its long-standing position as the United States’ top exporter for the first time since 2006. This transformation is driven by escalating tensions between the two economic giants and a significant restructuring of global supply chains.
- Recent data from the US Commerce Department reveals a remarkable downturn of more than 20% in American goods imports from China during January-November.
- China’s share of total US imports has plummeted to 13.9%, marking the lowest percentage since 2004. This decline is substantial compared to its peak of over 21% around 2017. US exports to China have shown minimal growth throughout the year.
- Stepping into the void left by China, Mexico is positioned to become the leading exporter to the US for the entire year, a status it hasn’t held since 2000. US imports from Mexico are set to record a high in 2023, constituting over 15% of the total for the first 11 months of the year.
- The European Union has also experienced a surge in exports to the US, reaching an all-time high during the same period.
- This shift in US trade patterns is particularly evident in the diversification of sources for critical products, such as consumer electronics, which have traditionally relied heavily on China.
- Notably, smartphone imports from China have seen a 10% decrease, while imports from India have surged fivefold. Similarly, laptop imports from China dropped by approximately 30%, but those from Vietnam quadrupled.
- This diversification aligns with the Biden administration’s “friendshoring” policy, emphasizing the importance of maintaining supply chains within allied and partner nations.
- The administration has also chosen to retain the US$370 billion worth of tariffs on Chinese products imposed by the previous administration led by Donald Trump.
- Additionally, there was a drop in China’s overall annual exports for the first time in seven years in 2023. The exports, measured in US dollars, amounted to US$3.38 trillion, marking a 4.6% decrease from the previous year.
- MIKE: I will note here that in terms of any economic statistics, a year-over-year change of 4.6% is There are some additional eye-popping stats I’m leaving out here. Continuing …
- In the wake of heightened restrictions imposed by the United States on China, the geopolitical landscape is witnessing a significant shift, with Mexico emerging as a prominent beneficiary.
- Meanwhile, Mexico has become a prime destination for Chinese businesses looking to navigate the complex web of international trade regulations. One critical development is the surge in Chinese investments in Mexico as companies seek to sidestep US sanctions.
- Chinese companies are setting up new industrial operations in Mexico, fundamentally altering the dynamics of trade in the region. Notable examples include Hisense, which initiated mass production at a state-of-the-art US$260 million factory, focusing on producing refrigerators and other appliances destined for the North American market.
- Automaker JAC Motors joined the fray, establishing an assembly plant in Mexico. The trend doesn’t stop there …
- This shift in dynamics reflects a broader Chinese strategy to reduce dependence on the US for exports. The Chinese government is also actively working towards boosting the Yuan’s role in international payments, seeking alternatives to the dollar.
- This effort includes transactions with crucial partners like Russia, the Middle East, and South America. Chinese exports to Russia, for instance, soared by more than half from January to November 2023, setting a record even in full-year terms.
- Furthermore, China witnessed a substantial 60% year-on-year increase in automobile exports during that timeframe. Most of these vehicles are powered by gasoline and are experiencing reduced demand within China. As a response, these vehicles are being marketed at affordable prices in the Middle East and Africa.
- MIKE: Personally, I’m fine with Mexico increasing its market share in the US compared to China. I’ve said for years that Mexico and Canada should be our two highest priority foreign policy considerations. Between those two countries, we have the gift of the longest non-militarized borders in the world. And Conservatives who think we should bomb or invade Mexico seem to have forgotten that demilitarized borders are the gift that keeps on giving.
- MIKE: I’m not entirely sanguine about Chinese companies setting up manufacturing and assembly plants in Mexico to circumvent tariffs, but that at least puts those physical plants in That gives jobs to Mexicans. It improves their standards of living and also, as a side benefit, reduces their need and desire to illegally enter the US. And strategically speaking, in the event of national emergency in Mexico or their American ally, these plants can be at least temporarily nationalized and mobilized for defense.
- MIKE: In short, I’m in favor of policies that ultimately strengthen the nations of North America and their relationships.
- ANDREW: Taking this article with other articles we’ve discussed recently about China’s economic prospects really shows how many different factors affect a nation’s economy. Strength of the internal market, amount of working-age population, state subsidies, exports, imports, competition from abroad, expansion to.. no wonder economics is so hard to predict (and no wonder it’s so often disastrous to let it set your nation’s entire political platform, but I digress).
- ANDREW: Really, we and everyone else can speculate as much as we want, but as I said before, only time can tell. All we can do is hope for the best.
- Moon’s resources could be ‘destroyed by thoughtless exploitation’, Nasa warned; Astronomers say launch of dozens of lunar probes could jeopardise research and valuable resources such as sea ice in craters. By Robin McKie Science Editor | THEGUARDIAN.COM | Sat 6 Jan 2024 09.00 EST / Last modified on Sat 6 Jan 2024 @ 10.40 EST (TAGS: The moon, The Observer, Astronomy, Nasa, China, India, Harvard University, Space)
- Science and business are heading for [a] clash – over the future exploration of the moon and the exploitation of its resources. [This] skirmish threatens to break out over companies’ plans to launch dozens of probes to survey the lunar landscape over the next few years. An early pioneer – Peregrine mission one – is set for launch this week.
- The aim of this extraterrestrial armada – largely funded through Nasa’s $2.6bn Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) initiative – is to survey the moon so that minerals, water and other resources can be extracted to build permanent, habitable bases there. These would later provide a springboard for manned missions to Mars.
- But astronomers have warned that an unrestricted rush to exploit the moon could cause irreparable damage to precious scientific sites. Gravitational wave research, black hole observations, studies to pinpoint life on tiny worlds that orbit distant stars, and other research could be jeopardised, they say.
- “The issue has become urgent,” Martin Elvis, of the Center for Astrophysics, Harvard & Smithsonian, told the Observer. “We need to act now because decisions made today will set the tone for our future behaviour on the moon.”
- This point was backed by astronomer Professor Richard Green, of the University of Arizona. “We are not trying to block the building of lunar bases. However, there are only a handful of promising sites there and some of these are incredibly precious scientifically. We need to be very, very careful where we build our mines and bases.”
- Later this month, a working group – recently set up by the International Astronomical Union and headed by Green – will meet UN officials to start negotiations that would, it is hoped, lead to a strengthening of legislation for protecting interplanetary resources. The 1967 Outer Space Treaty prevents nations from making territorial claims on celestial bodies, but says nothing about space mining and exploitation of resources, the journal Science warned recently.
- An illustration of the problem facing scientists was highlighted by Green: “A few deep lunar craters have been discovered to have been shrouded in shadow since the moon formed billions of years ago. Sunlight has never reached their floors and so they are unbelievably cold – probably only a few dozen degrees above absolute zero. And that makes them scientifically very valuable.”
- Craters like these would be ideal for housing delicate scientific instruments – for example infra-red telescopes that need to be cooled constantly – and there are plans to build such an observatory, one that would be powerful enough to observe distant, dim stars that might have small rocky planets in orbit round them. …
- … [I]t is thought these lightless craters may contain water in the form of super-cold ice that did not evaporate as it did elsewhere on the moon during its early history. These sunless seas of ice could reveal precious information about the history of water’s arrival, possibly via comets, on the moon – and on nearby Earth where it played a key role in the appearance of life.
- However, craters filled with ice would also be priceless in the eyes of lunar colonisers and would become irresistible targets for companies and astronauts setting up colonies. …
- Another key site has been earmarked by radio astronomers. It lies on the far side of the moon, which is shielded from the chaotic radio emissions that pour from Earth. It would be an ideal place to erect a giant [radio] telescope that could detect – without interference – ultra-low radio waves that emanate from the early universe and which would provide crucial information about the formation of the first galaxies.
- However, Nasa – and other space agencies – have plans to circle the moon with satellites to control robot rovers and other devices on the lunar surface. Radio signals leaking from these could ruin the sensitivity of the proposed far-side radio telescope. …
- Prospecting for resources is only beginning … [T]he sites of resources that will be crucial for building and running colonies will be revealed. …
- [L]unar industrialisation now seems a real prospect. This will help science by bringing down launch costs but, astronomers stress, should not involve the reckless destruction of sites that are unique to the moon and invaluable to science.
- “The trouble is that it takes a long time to make changes to UN treaties, so we have to act now if we are to have a hope of making sure we have international agreements in place to protect the unique scientific features of the moon and ensure they are not destroyed through thoughtless exploitation,” said Green.
- MIKE: As “Buckaroo Banzai (1984)” once said, “No matter where you go, there you are.”
- MIKE: Humans are living, biological creatures. We’re not biologically sterile or neat. We shed viruses and bacteria everywhere we go. Like our ancient ancestors, we grub in the ground for what we need to survive. Just like in ancient times, endeavors such as thinking, building, and diversification of societies into branches that don’t involve survival but rather elevation of society and civilization in arts and technology, can only occur when societal survival has been assured.
- MIKE: Certainly, our exploration of space will be sophisticated enough to metaphorically “walk and chew gum at the same time”, but costs of launching initial bases and personnel plus the ongoing stream of supplies to support them will likely take some precedence over pure science.
- MIKE: Professor Green’s push to get ahead of this industrial and human colonization of the Moon (and eventually, Mars) is wise, because science must be balanced with human and industrial colonization of the Moon. It shouldn’t be an afterthought.
- ANDREW: I wonder if maybe colonization should have to pass through science to get to the Moon. Consider this: most cities have local governments responsible for planning where things go and issuing permits to ensure that construction and extraction are safe for humans and not going to decrease quality of life. Perhaps there should be a department of NASA, led by scientists who will prioritize scientific interest and human well-being over profits, that must issue a permit for all US-flagged construction and extraction on the Moon, otherwise it’s not allowed to happen. Other space agencies could establish similar departments, and they could coordinate in a body of the UN.
- ANDREW: That might be a little hard to convince everyone to agree with, but we may need some structure like it sooner rather than later. After all, the Moon isn’t the only cold, white, far-flung landscape we humans have access to, and the treaty stopping major development and exploitation of Antarctica is up for renegotiation in 2048. Better to have a prime candidate for a system to take over than to let it slip into a chaotic Arctic Rush, I think.
- MIKE: Of course, that was the purpose of the 1967 Outer Space Treaty. But over more than half a century, capabilities and intent have changed. And here’s another example of a stakeholder that wouldn’t have even been considered in 1967: The Navajo Nation. The story begins …
- MIKE: “[W]hen Navajo Nation President Buu Nygren recently discovered that NASA is planning to launch a rocket headed to the moon in early January with cremated human remains to be placed there, he sent a letter to NASA and the U.S. Department of Transportation asking to delay the launch.
- MIKE: [President Nygren wrote,] “It is crucial to emphasize that the moon holds a sacred position in many Indigenous cultures, including ours. We view it as a part of our spiritual heritage, an object of reverence and respect. The act of depositing human remains and other materials, which could be perceived as discards in any other location, on the Moon is tantamount to desecration of this sacred space.” …
- MIKE: The story goes on to say that perhaps the tribe’s main grievance was that they weren’t consulted on this beforehand, but you can see how this could get more challenging. What happens when astronauts visit the Moon. Establish a permanent base there? Die and are buried there?
- MIKE: By the way, the Peregrine mission with the human ashes had a fuel leak and will not be landing on the Moon. In fact, it will likely swing back toward Earth and burn up in the atmosphere. You can decide if there’s irony in atmospherically cremating human cremains.
- REFERENCE: Navajo Nation President Objects to NASA Sending Cremated Human Remains to the Moon — By Levi Rickert | nativenewsonline.net | December 31, 2023
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